Welcome to The Profits preview from Caulfield on 22 April 2017. Our focus now moves back to Melbourne as the Sydney carnival comes to a close. The Sydney Cup isn’t worth a preview in my eyes with several form lines a little too hard to track and figure out on what is going to be another poor Heavy track up there. If it was to get to a Soft 6 i’d have a E/W stab at Harlem but that’s about it. I’ve walked the Caulfield track and am very happy to focus on horses that map front 6 today in running. Keen on the plays today and expect we will come out ahead and hopefully land at least one at odds. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Burning Front – 6 units @ $1.70 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Ruthven – 4 units @ $2.30 to win
Best Value Bets
Caulfield Race 7 – Faatinah – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7/$2.70
Caulfield Race 8 – Prussian Vixen – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.50
Caulfield Race 6 – Deja Blue – 1 unit Each-Way @ $15/$4.20
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 7, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 9, 11, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6, 8, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 4000m – JRA Marathon Series Final
1. Like A Carousel: Certainly no issues with him getting the distance today but he really hasn’t been in any form the past year and he will have to pull something out of the bag today with top weight.
2. Refectory: Gone well over the jumps in the past and gets the distance. Fairly beaten by Bayanova last run over 3400m so obviously has to find something better here.
3. Bayanova: Stays for days. Beaten by Prize and Spur on Gold as $1.65 favourite last start over 3600m at Oakbank and is on the short backup here. Previous start smashed Refectory by 8 lengths. Have to consider.
4. Prize: Well weighted today after running a very solid 2nd to Spur on Gold last start at Oakbank beating home Bayanova. Stays and will run well again.
5. Spur On Gold: Strong win last start at Oakbank from back last in the field. Clearly proved to be the better horse on the day and while he isn’t as well weighted as a few others, he will be hard to beat.
6. Shampion: Proved to be an average type at best but looks to be the type that will stay over this distance. Hard for me to back off the short backup though over 2400m.
7. Trending Hard: Picnic maiden winner…. actually ran well 2nd at Stawell over 2700m last start in BM-64 grade but was still well beaten.
Comments: Tough race to open the day. I have to believe Spur on Gold is going the best of the three coming over from Oakbank. Like a Carousel is the X factor in the race but hasn’t shown us much recently.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Spur on Gold to win
Caulfield Race 2 – 1600m – Thomas North Handicap
1. Elite Tiger: Won two in a row and looks well in here at course over 1600m in similar grade. Looks suitably weighted also and maps perfectly from barrier 4.
2. Unbreakable: Nice enough win first up in this grade over 1400m and then failed to finish off last start at Bendigo when Top me Up ran them along at a solid tempo. Not a top class horse but will get the right speed on in the race to run well.
3. Pay Up Bro: Ran on well last start from on speed but was certainly no match for the classy Top me Up. Up to 1600m should be suitable on previous preps and claim will help chances. Maps nicely.
4. Aurum Spirit: Doesn’t win out of turn this horse. Three runs since a freshened up and the best run was in easier grade than this. Has to improve.
5. Super Haze: First up ran well at Flemington over this distance when held up for a fair bit of the race. Looks the type that can improve here and run well.
6. Celtic Tiger: Listed winner two preps back over 1600m. Failed to fire first up this prep and has been obviously battling issues.
7. Grand Dreamer: Ran well first up at Ballarat behind Curragh and In Fairness. Step up to 1600m is ideal today and goes well.
8. Kapset: Expected to go forward today. Two preps back beat a very talented type in Hard Call over 1600m in the Elmore Cup. Failed to fire last prep but did start this prep well first up. A little disappointing last start at Sandown but much better weighted here.
9. Irish Optimism: Failed to show anything first up over 1300m at Bendigo. Looked a nice type over the 1600m distance back in England and will improve loads on that first up run today.
10. Mr Churchill: Two wins in a row going through the grades and takes another step up today here. Has the ability to run well.
Comments: This is a tough race to get a handle on. Elite Tiger, Pay Up Bro and Irish Optimism look the three to beat. I have to play the two value runners if betting here.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Elite Tiger and Irish Optimism.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – IRT VOBIS Gold Mile
1. Burning Front: Won five on the trot before being given too large a weight in the Golden Mile and being run down late by Observational who has won since. Obviously much better weighted today and will be very hard to beat.
2. Zebrinz: Won four back at Flemington over the 1400m beating Sadaqa which is a nice form line. Ran 3rd to He or She and Hooked which is also a nice form line the next start… 3rd over 1400m and 2.5L off Observational last start. Last two runs have been below his best (was galloped on two back) but he can obviously run well.
3. Bring Something: Trialed nicely heading into this run today. Last prep failed to show much after the first up 1700m run 3rd behind Royal Rapture. Hard to suggest.
5. Entre Nous: Benalla Cup winner last start beating home a nice type in Our Bottino that runs races along at a similar pace to Burning Front. Was better suited to a softer track that day. Can run well here but clearly wants it wetter to find best. Maps for a charmed run.
6. Mr Individual: This bloke has a load of potential but it’s hard to get him to show it on track. Big jump up in grade this.. a big test. Failed first up over 1200m with a big weight and then failed last start on heavy. Not the best lead in.
7. Charlevoix: Big gear changes with Concussion plates off first time and gelded. Best runs in the past have clearly been over much further than this. Will run well but not winning.
8. Ashdam: Blinkers off. Has run previous behind Burning Front 2nd – lost by 4L. Been fairly beaten the last two starts and it’s hard to see a turn around here.
9. Castelo: Been going well in easier class including a 2nd to War Legend at Sandown that is solid form lines. Two back was a fail but last start at Benalla won well. This is harder today.
10. Bel Burgess: Won four in a row and has been perfectly placed. This is a huge throw at the stumps and a step beyond him.
11. Manageress: 3rd in the Balarat Cup last prep to finish the prep and is listed placed over 1600m in the past. Three runs this prep but has shown nothing. Hard to suggest.
Comments: Burning Front was a great run last start at Bendigo and the step back in weight giving nothing to the opposition… this is the perfect track for him.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Burning Front – 6 units @ $1.70
Caulfield Race 4 – 2000m – TROA VOBIS Gold Heath
1. Adirondack: Drawn a wide barrier. Ran very well for 2nd in the Cranbourne Cup and then 2nd in the Stoney Creek Cup. Hasn’t won for a very long time, but is certainly going well enough to figure.
2. Tarquin: Three runs this prep and hasn’t been closer than 2.3L off a win. Held up last start in the Easter Cup behind Observational and Burning Front etc and got out when it was all over. Was very well tipped and backed on the day. Up in weight today. Maps well on speed.
3. Hard Call: Sensational this prep. Last start won the Yarra Valley Cup beating some nice types in Bonfire and Mourinho coming off good runs at Flemington and Moonee Valley. Will sit just off the speed today and has every chance
4. O’lonera: Running consistently well last prep but failed to fire in the Easter Cup last start and runs prior were not inspiring.
5. Blue Jangles: Bm-64 winner this prep but may very well just be looking for much further than this. Strange placement.
6. Sirfontein: Bm-64 grade winner coming out of a BM-58 grade win. This is a huge step up and I struggle to see him measuring up for the win.
7. Khutulun: Hasn’t won in two preps. Last win was in BM-84 grade over this distance at this course beating some average at best types compared to the very best in this race. Last few starts hasn’t been bad at all and last start was clearly the best run of the prep. Has to improve again.
8. Royal Butterfly: BM-58 grade winner three back before failing to get wins in BM-58 and BM-64 grade. Struggle to suggest a place.
9. Ruthven: Ran a great race 4th in the ATC Derby on the Heavy track which was his first run on the wet. Previous start in the Alister Clark ran a good race 2nd behind Hardham. Well weighted in this today and while i’m not normally a 3YO backer against the older horses, he looks very well suited here coming back to the 2000m at Caulfield from barrier 5.
10. Rockstar Rebel: Fairly beaten last start at course over 1800m with a low weight from off the speed. Got too far back and ran on but didn’t make up much ground. Expect a similar run today… I don’t see it here.
11. Toffee Nose: Good run third last start over 1600m and goes up to 2000m again today. Probably too firm last start, but even so, she has to improve again.
12. Miss Cavatica: Maiden winner last start. Struggle to suggest a place.
Comments: Ruthven is ideally placed here today to take out the race from an on speed position. Hard Call looks the maijn danger on paper but has to step up again here to beat Ruthven home. Tarquin was well backed last start but i’m not sure it’s going well enough and the same for Toffee Nose. Happy to take the price on offer.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Ruthven – 4 units @ $2.30 to win.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Swear At Spendthrift Australia VOBIS Sires
1. Kronos: Won a lead in trial and then delivered the odds over 1050m first up at Morphetville. Looks a progressive type.
2. Danger Deal: Four runs this prep and has failed to get a win on the board competing in strong races along the way. Has run 2nd the past three but always finds one much better. Beaten by Tabbing which is a Kronos form line.
3. Seized: Two runs this prep for a nice 2nd behind Muraaqeb before running home well at Bendigo for 4th. Has to improve.
5. Sun Quan: Trailled well and was well backed first up at Bendigo. Pulled up Shin sore and that isn’t the type of horse I want to back going forward from the run.
6. Barney Allen: Average run at best first up at Bendigo when not supported. Struggle to suggest here.
7. Many Rewards: Trial winner in nice type at Cranbourne and was backed when 4th at Caulfield behind AL Passem. Had every chance last start. Has to improve.
8. Silverhawk: Unseen type. Drifter in the market. Price yard though and they normally uncover a good 2YO.
9. Spiritual Girl: Won well first up last prep. Trained on since and won well first up next start. Failed to fire last start though when didn’t really have any excuses from on speed.
10. Je Suis Tycoon: Ran very well first up from off the speed to just miss behind Speed Street at Bendigo. Up to 1200m and looks ideal.
11. Pure Scot: Ran nicely last start beaten fairly at Bendigo by Je Suis Tycoon and Speed Street. Can run well but has to improve to beat home Je Suis Tycoon.
12. Woman in Red: Maiden winner last start. Took quite a few runs to get the win. This is SIGNIFICANTLY harder.
13. Purrhaps: Trialled well heading into her prep but failed to score a win in four attempts in easier grades. Hard to suggest.
14. Riverina Romance: 2nd at Wang behind al Passem. Certainly a nice form line to take into a race like this to go around at bigger odds than she should be.
15. Miss Skeptical: First up runner. Not backed in the race and big odds.
16. Wanted Diva: Unseen Hayes stable runner. Opened $51 and has been backed into $26.
17. Vivendi: Ellerton/Zahra first starter. Stable at $51 in the market.
18. Mount Horeb: Osborne runner that has been a drifter in betting.
Comments: Certainly a race i’m not interested in getting involved in. Je Suis Tycoon is certainly the one to beat. Kronos looks the value.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Back Je Suis Tycoon and Kronos
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Ladbrokes VOBIS Gold Distaff
1. French Emotion: G2 2nd at Moonee Valley. Last start given no real chance too far back in the run taken very wide in harder company. Back to 1400m is ideal and a dry track again. Only issue is 4 starts 0 wins at track. Good barrier to sit further forward.
2. Whistle Baby: Ran well for 2nd in the Gold Bracelet at Bendigo last start over 1400m. Maps perfectly again from barrier 4. Never won at track from 9 attempts a slight issue.
3. Fast Approaching: Taken a while going through the grades this prep to get going. Last start over 1600m actually ran well Back to 1400m ideal and should be running nicely.
4. Tidy Prophet: Poor run first up over 1200m. Last prep got over much further. Hard to suggest at this level in Victoria.
5. Deja Blue: BM-84 grade winner three back over 1200m at Moonee Valley. Fairly beaten last start over 1400m at Flemington but was really a huge run 3-wide in a good form race that worked out times wide. Was never suited last start by the sit and sprint in the Sunline Stakes. Much better suited here. Barrier her only issue.
6. Tykiato: Failed to fire first up over 1200m at Flemington. Previous prep went through the grades over shorter distances. Not convinced in this over 1400m
7. Diamond Baroness: Loves to set a hot speed out front and will do that again today. Ran well all runs this prep over 1400m and will be suited by the track today.. but she will certainly need to be good to lead all the way.
8. Weather the Storm: Gets a good spot in running today. Won three back over 955m and has been running over 1200m the last two starts fairly beaten. Much harder today.
9. Devilishly: Over the 1500m distances the past four starts and has run 2nd on two occasions in much easier company. This is a big ask.
10. Avenue Whisper: Bendigo winner over 1300m last start in BM-64 grade. Huge jump and ask for this horse.
11. Arachne: Dead-heat first up at Ballarat over much shorter distance which should her her going the right way for this today. Looks to have the ability to step up and run well.
12. Gold Fontein: Nice win last start beating a decent type in Fife at Sandown. Finds when needed and is a horse that can keep going onwards.
13. Evil Lil: Not the worst runner today. Has been running well and been there abouts but hasn’t won since five back in BM-64 grade.
14. Miss Universe: Won two in a row in BM-64 grade. Much harder here but obviously going nicely.
Comments: Diamond Baroness will be pushing them along out front today and this looks a race well suited to the tough finishes. French Emotion is a horse that will be well backed today, but I have a real query over the horse when they run it along fast early, middle and late. The horse forgotten in the market today is Deja Blue who comes out of a very hot race behind Turbo Miss two back at Flemington when the horse was 3-wide the trip in a very fast time.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 7, 11
Strategy: Deja Blue – 1 unit Each-Way @ $15/$4.20
Caulfield Race 7 – 1100m – Thoroughbred Breeders Victoria Bel Esprit Stakes
1. Mahuta: Best runs in the past have been over further (1400-1600m). Last prep failed to get a win or even run 2nd in a race and was 2.75L or further off.
2. Faatinah: Oakleigh Plate 2nd two back when 3-wide outside the leader and was a super run. Ignore the run in the Galaxy. Looks very well suited back to course and distance and will be mighty hard to get past back in this grade. RAN 2nd in a Group 1 two back at course and distance. Barrier 3. What else do you want to know? BACK IT.
3. Kaepernick: Always proved to be a good horse but gets back in his runs and runs on well to be an eye-catcher many starts. Barrier 4 again and will go back again from the barrier. Need to be very good and get a much better spot in running to win this.
4. Rageese: Horrible run last start at Rosehill after a good Flemington Group 3 win over 1400m. Too short.
5. Atmospherical: Three lead in trials to get her fit for the first up run. Hasn’t won in a long time but did run well in the G3 Monash at course and distance 3rd behind Wild Rain last prep.
6. Crystal Dreamer: I like the horse. First up won very well at course over 1000m in nice style. Certainly has ability but won’t get an easy time on speed today and has to improve class wise. Can run well.
7. Well Sprung: Good win three back running down Boomwaa over the 1200m at Flemington. Failed to fire two back at MV but ran a huge race in for third last start at Mornington. Going well enough to consider.
8. Malibu Style: Ran very well first up over the 1000m when 2nd to Crystal Dreamer. Fairly beaten on the day. Up to 1200m is what the horse is clearly looking for and the extra distance will suit today.
9. O’Malley: 955m winner first up last prep. Failed in the good race next start over 1000m though. Always been a good horse but best has always been over the very short distances. Has to improve in this grade.
10. Petits Filous: Talented sprinter. Had a long time off after obvious issues. Nicely weighted here. 955m first up ran well 0.4L 4th behind Beau Rada and Sirbible. Tough from barrier 12.
11. Legless Veuve: Good G3 win three back at course and similar distance but got away with murder out front. Not going to happen today. Tough ask.
12. Rocket Tommy: Won three in a row down the straight at Flemington. Certainly has a strong turn of foot late. Will have a tough run but clearly has the ability to win this.
13. Sunday Escape: Beat home Petitis Filous last start over 955m. Hasn’t won in a very long time. Good barrier to get the right run.
14. Orujo: Horrible last start. Previous runs not much better. Only good run was 2nd to Beau Rada first up. hard to suggest.
Comments: Four clear chances today and Faatinah gets the run of the race. He ran 2nd in Group 1 class at course and distance two back and it’s hard to see them running him down today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 12
Strategy: Faatinah – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7/$2.70
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Newmarket Grand West VOBIS Gold Sprint
1. Thermal Current: Has his chances last start at course over 100m and was disappointing 4th. Previous start beaten a long way in the Oakleigh Plate. Previous two runs were good.
2. Demonstrate: Talented horse that has shown absolutely nothing this prep. Two runs have been horrible and I couldn’t support here.
3. Fash Cash: Two lead in runs today and has been beaten 3.9L n both attempts. Struggle to suggest even close to a win here.
4. Rich Charm: Won well at course and distance two back from off the speed and then last start smashed a very good field down the straight at Flemington. Clearly flying and recording good times.
5. Lucky Liberty: Gets a long way back in runs normally. Good win to finish last prep. Goes well enough first up and has to be considered a chance.
6. Cosmic Lights: Poor two back at Flemington in the Standish coming off a nice win at Bendigo. Last start 2nd to Burning Front was a good run. Spelled and first up and has a good record but really wants further to find his best.
8. Tycoon Tara: Old mate had a really good last prep. Horrible on the wet first up in the G2 Sapphire when well backed. Best is over further but last prep did beat Le Romain over 1200m in G3 company. Have to respect.
9. Miss Promiscuity: Old mate ran fairly in the Oakleigh Plate for 5th behind Faatinah when 4-wide the trip. Failed on the Heavy last start. Going to improve going forward for this run but has every chance to run well and win from on speed.
10. Scarlet Billows: Nearly a yer between runs. Never quite measured up to the top level. Better over 1400m+.
11. Prussian Vixen: Won 2 of her last four runs including a G3 two back over G1 winner Silent Sedition at course and distance. Only run down on the line last start by a very good type in Bassett. Flying and a huge price today.
12. A Lotta Love: Last win in easier company (BM-90) and did place in G3 company on best run. First up today makes it tough.
13. Ken’s Dream: Tough ask today going from 3YO grade to open class today. Was a tough a strong win first up but what did he beat.
14. Wazzenme: Always runs well but never wins. Can’t see it here.
Comments: Rich Charm is probably the best horse in this race but the horse will be getting back today and running on. The best horse on speed is Prussian Vixen and the form lines are rock solid. Once again, she will get 2-3 lengths on the MAIN dangers heading into the straight for mine as I think she is tougher than Miss Promiscuity, Tycoon Tara and Ken’s Dream and it’s up to a Lucky Liberty or Rich Charm to run her down late.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 9, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Prussian Vixen – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.50
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – Goldners Horse Transport Vobis Gold Reef
1. Jaws of Steel: Failed last prep on only run. Didn’t show much first up this prep either over 1200m. Straight up to 1600m and did win a nice 1500m race two preps back.. if back to best can go well.
2. Fanfaron: Godolphin runner that has been fairly beaten the past two starts in similar grades of races. Needs to improve again.
3. Atlantic Express: Always looked a nice type but has failed to really measure up in the past outside of a good win at Sandown ridden for a bit of luck box seating. Average at best first up.
4. Kaptive Hero: Maiden winner first up and fairly beaten in BM-64 grade last start. Up to 1600m but not sure that helps?
5. Greviste: Two runs this prep for two solid wins. Going up in grade and distances accordingly. Set to run well.
6. Butch Kissidy: Well named horse. Good win two back at Pakenham smashing them. Big run last start at Caulfield when just a forgive run. Bad barrier today doesn’t help chances.
7. Kazio: Ran nicely enough 3rd behind Sword of Light and Milwaukee in the Bendigo Guineas from out the back. Expect they will ride similar here today and extra distanc will suit. Tough ask from last though here. Good type.
8. Think Babe: BM-64 grade winner coming off an 8L maiden win. Only just fell in over the 1400m though last start. Obviously has ability but has to improve onwards again.
9. Good Host: Maiden winner three back and has failed to fire since. Can’t suggest.
10. Bo Zephyr: Maiden winner last prep over 1400m. Average at best over 1200m and 1400m heading into this run.
11. Lynch Mob: Had his chances last start as favourite in a maiden race at Echuca and was well beaten. 7th in G2 the run before. Hard horse to rate. Has ability.
12. Sword of Light: Strong run 2nd in the Bendigo Guineas and won since at course and distance in similar 3YO grade race. Looks well suited here again.
13. Cheree’s Shinzig: BM-58 grade winner last start coming off a well beaten 5th in 3YO-SWP grade (beaten 4.8L) and a maiden win before that. Hard to get a grip on but not sure she is the deal for this.
14. Ana Royale: BM-70 2nd last start from out the back at Ballarat – good run. Previous start beaten 4L by Montoya’s Secret 2nd at MV. Clearly has ability but this looks a step up again.
16. Sarasota Bay: Maiden winner two back. Failed in harder company last start. Take on.
17. Set to Go: Couldn’t win a maiden first up.
18. Full of Theories: Couldn’t win a maiden first up. Up in distance but still hard to suggest.
Comments: Tough race to finish the day and I wouldn’t want to get involved betting wise.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: Sword of Light to win. Small bet Lynch Mob.
