Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield on 18 October 2017 for Blue Sapphire Day. The rail will be hot hot hot for leaders today with the inside 1m clearly the best spot from the 600-300m and slightly the best spot for the rest of the straight. There is 3 lengths to be saved by leading today or taking a sit so look for those from inside barriers today to be taking the wins. Betting up hard on three leaders today. As always, good luck and happy punting.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
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I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2400m – Ladbrokes Up For THe CHallenge Handicap
1. Swacadelic: Listed grade winner over 2400m last start but didn’t have to beat much at all. Step back to BM-84 here but this is much harder than that race was for mine. Up 6kg makes it hard from the back.
2. Ruling Dynasty: Out back run on type. Hasn’t placed in past 10 runs for a reason.
3. Settler’s Stone: Went around favourite last start at Mornington but just wasn’t good enough. 1kg better off today but this is still hard and won’t be leading today.
4. Up ‘n’ Rolling: Beaten as $1.90 and $1.50 favourites the past two starts but you have to respect the SP profile. Maps for the ideal run 1 back the rail and will be in the perfect spot heading into the straight behind the next best horse.
5. Plot Twist: 3200m Randwick heavy winner last prep. Horrible first up over 2000m and clearly best will come over 2400m+. This looks a tough ask even on last prep best.
6. Sin to Win: Likely leader in the race and first time ever going to the 2400m so I doubt he leads over chequered flag. Big chance if can last the 2400m today but i’m not convinced the step up is ideal.
7. Regal Monarch: Strong form lines at this distance with 4 wins 4 places from 9 starts at the distance. Two runs this prep but has failed to fire and this is harder. Not overly strong form.
8. Chequered Flag: Could lead them around and I hope he does. Good 2nd last start at Moonee Valley with excuses as they went around too slow. May have to push on if that happens here. Consistent type that has placed 21 of 28 starts. Big odds. Can sprint late.
9. Lycurgus: Should be ready to peak today. Well back in class and up to 2400m distance he has to be considered a big chance today. Only query is how far back he gets in running and the run required to win this.
10. Khartoum: Maiden winner over 2400m last start. Huge step up needed. No.
Comments: Very keen on Chequered Flag to be ridden correctly today. Will be riding the correct pace required along the rail and will hopefully be let go with 600m to go in the race to use the rail as best as possible. Has the finishing sectionals on past runs to hold all these runners off. Most importantly, placed 21 of 28 runs and is very consistent.
Confidence 90%
Startegy: Chequered Flag – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$1.95
Caulfield Race 6 – G3 Blue Sapphire Stakes – 1200m
1. Summer Passage: Strong G1 winner last prep over 1200m on Soft over in NZ and ran 2nd in G1 Sires over 1400m. First up failed to fire behind Catchy and Jukebox but last start over 1400m in Guineas Prelude a strong 2nd. Personally feel they have gone the wrong race going back to 1200m here and think this horse needs further than the 1200m to measure up at top levels.
2. Jukebox: Won 3 of 4 starts. Race tips back on to for this horse with no the most sound feet going around but still finds ways to win with no issues. Loves a bit of sting out and trialled strongly heading into this. Craig Williams jumps on and most likely had his pick of the bunch. Good 2nd to Catchy last start over 1200m. Barrier only issues but will sit midfield and most likely slot in no problems.
3. Muraaqeb: Poor barrier but expect will sit 3-wide the trip with cover and be given a suck run to finish up over the top of them. Won last start at Moonee Valley beating some decent types but this is a huge step up. Does have ability on previous preps.
4. Indian Thunder: Has looked the real deal in the yard but not delivered on the track. Huge step up again. Hard to suggest.
5. Lone Eagle: Didn’t find a lot of room last start over 1400m at Flemington and was in too slow a race two back at MV. Certainly good enough to measure up here but needs the speed on.
6. I Did it Again: Caulfield win last prep was clearly hot form and good enough to put these away today. Given a horror ride first up and still almost won without being whipped. Will be ready and able to win here. Perfect barrier and speed looks ok.
7. Choisborder: Maps for a midfield spot after a maiden win last start at MV when couldn’t win at Ararat prior. Struggle to suggest on the current form.
8. Over Exposure: Maiden winner at Balaklava and was well backed last start at Moonee Valley but failed to get the win and had thumps. Can improve.
9. Formality: Two strong G2 wins to start the prep up north in Sydney with wins over Alizee and Champagne Cuddles. Failed in the Golden Rose over 1400m but back to Caulfield where won a G3 last prep and ran 3rd in the Blue Diamond. Maps perfectly from the barrier.
10. Crown Witness: Will push on from inside barrier to attempt to lead. Got the runs of the race last start beating Catchy and trialed well heading into this. Will need to be perfect and at top to win this.
Comments: The sectionals from Formality in the Silver Shadow are impossible to ignore coming back to Caulfield and coming back to the 1200m off a rock hard 1400m run which will have topped the horse off. There isn’t a ‘clear leader’ on the mapping and there isn’t a clear horse to put speed into the race. Formality is likely to roll forward and lead them around if no one wants to take it up and if the rail acts as well as it did on Saturday, I can’t see them running down Formality based on the 21.56 final 400m and 10.96 final 200m ran in the horses top form race. Even the 22.16 of the next start would have the horse hard to get past.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Formality – 3 units @ $4.80 to win + 4 units @ $1.80 to place.
Caulfield Race 7 – Listed italktravel Stakes – 1200m
1. Keen Array: Strong win well backed last start at Flemington when let down strongly down the straight and just held on. Up in weight here compared to rivals such as Malibu Style and maps midfield from barrier.
3. Bassett: Got the right run first up and when asked to let down didn’t find much. Can run much better today 2nd up but this is a big step up again. May need the run.
4. Malibu Style: Gets 3.5kg turn around on Keen Array today and from barrier 7 maps 1/1 1/2 in running for an ideal run. Will be near if not at top in the yard today and has to be respected on best runs in the past at these weights.
5. Calanda: Snowden runner that won Listed grade at Drafton last prep. Two average at best trials heading in and from barrier 12 maps midfield to back.
6. Lite’n in my veins: WA import now with Maher/Purcell yard. Last prep didn’t measure up at all and had 110 days between runs. Goes better 2nd up and over further.
7. Sadaqa: First up today (best runs deeper into rpeps) over unsuitable distance. Goes well at track but needs this run.
8. Rich Charm: Been well backed into favourite today with the low weight but was backed first up when beaten 1.85L. Was held up for runs from the 200m but that is the horses pattern that affected the run. Certainly can win and will need luck in running again. Can sprint well late.
9. Ruettiger: Been running at top and not sure he has enough improvement to improve past any of these today. Place at best.
10. Sebring Sun: Weir runner that went out the back and wide at first run this prep and looks well set for this today. Never measured up in this grade but clearly will find improvement 2nd up and maps nicely for a suck run.
11. So You Too: Good win at MV last start as SP favourite but didn’t beat many horses of talent on the day. Testing material.
13. Oberland: Spruck horse two back at Moonee Valley and just had to cover way too much ground heading into this. Failed last start on Soft 7 at Morphetville but does look over the odds.
Comments: Malibu Style looks well weighted here while Rich Charm is an obvious chance ridden for luck. Oberland could be the value in the race. Calanda the unknown but has ability and Keen Array has to be respected. Malibu Style maps to get the best run and will be at top today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Malibu Style – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.45
