Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 17 January 2018. We head to Caulfield for the first Wednesday twilight meeting and it’s about time, but good on RV for finally coming around with the double header on a Wednesday – i’ll be attending and so will thousands of others – free entry. Not 100% sure what the track will do but expecting the hot weather to mean it will play on-pace as Caulfield usually does.. they are watering it at 8am which is a warning sign and is my caution with giving you a way it will play. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – La Volt – 2 units Each-Way $5.50/$2.00
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Booradley – 1.5 units to win @ $3.80. 2.5 units to place @ $1.80
Best Value
Caulfield Race 4 – Dangle Lad – 1 unit Each-Way @ $26/$6.50
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1100m – Maiden
Interesting race to start the day. Vibrato showed a clear class turn of foot last start and will appreciate more tempo here, query is the map from that inside barrier and will need luck in running. Disappointing last start, Spirit of Aquada’s first up run was more than good enough to win this and has been backed. Outside of those horses, i’d be looking to the first starters in the well backed Masuta and Twilight Song.
Strategy: This is very much a parade type of race, you want to see the two untried horses in the ring. Vibrato goes on top from the tried horses.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – 3FB-64
A shocker of a race to bet into without prior knowledge on horses first up status and we really need to see them in the ring. Pageantry and Indrabeel clearly have the best runs from the past coming into this while we have lightly raced types like Lucky Cat on the improve as well as Hunboshi and Tennesse Sky who are all 3rd up. Lucky Cat looks to have the most upside here if it can jump with the pack, but it hasn’t the past two starts.
Strategy: Back Lucky Cat in-play if the horse jumps with the field, take down to $4.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – BM-64
Quite a few horses past their ‘hay day’ in this race but clearly a few on the way up as well. La Volt was ridden poorly last start and gets a jockey change and increase in distance, both positives… from outside will go forward and be hard to beat with the claim. Persian Empire ran good times at Moonee Valley last start and drops back in distance and will be on speed along with a few others. Helix Park is a light raced Hayes horse I’ve got a lot of time for.. if the horse can jump well today and position better, can finish off strongly off a reasonable tempo.
Strategy: La Volt – 2 units Each-Way $5.50/$2.00
Caulfield Race 4 – 2000m – BM-70
Query now hangs over the head of Eureka Street from Smerdon stable after 3 poor performances. Hard to suggest today. Savvy Dresser was disappointing first up but Oliver takes ride and up to 2000m could produce best. Dangle Lad ran gamely last start and looks hard to beat re-producing that effort while Silent General is short in the market and should be respected. Bedford comes out of a strong platform race and will want the tempo on again here.
Strategy: Dangle Lad – 1 unit Each-Way @ $26/$6.50
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – FMB-70
A load of early speed in this race. Jocasta and Deconi have the best runs from the past while Alaskan Sun and Jocasta have the best platforms to perform here. Alaskan Sun naturally gets well back but if Jocasta can jump with them today, she is going to be very hard to beat.
Strategy: Back Jocasta in-play if the horse jumps with the field, take down to $5.00
Caulfield Race 6 – 1440m – BM-70
They look a very even bunch. Chippenham beaten by Simply Splashing last start and then that horse failed to fire since but still clearly the best form line. Questionable speed in this race hurts the betting here. If they ran it along, Greviste would be very hard to hold out. I’ve liked what The Great Ariste has been doing the past two runs and that horse has to be considered a chance also. From on speed, Hunamosa could very well just steal the race.
Strategy: Stay out, but if you twisted my arm, Hunamosa E/W
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – BM-79
Unlike last start where Booradley got an uncontested lead, there are 5 horses going forward here and pace will be fierce. Maps are a complete nightmare and expect to have horses 5-wide the trip potentially! With the 3kg claim, Booradley is still the horse to beat while Bord De Gain and Written in Stone needing luck will be coming home late over the top.
Strategy: Booradley to win
Caulfield Race 8 – 1600m – FMB-70
Tizso Wicked and Ashlee Marie the standouts on form and last start runs, the later the one with more potential and better draw/map today. Sensation Ally and Fudged look the main dangers in a race light in class. Evil Lil the only other one based on 2 back run. Isle of Capri has been well backed suggesting improvement to come here.
Strategy: Tizso Wicked E/W
