Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 16 December 2017. We finally head back to the city tracks for the Saturday racing as we head towards Christmas. The rail is out 12 metres for the Caulfield card today so we are expecting horses to be able to win from anywhere on the day. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Vinland – 8 units @ $2.40
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Mrs Gardenia – 5 units @ $2.90 to win
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 8 – Oberland – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.88
Best Value
Caulfield Race 6 – Parthesia – 1 unit Each-Way @ $17/$5.00
Other Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Kasi Farasi – 1 units Each-Way @ $9.50/$3.20
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1100m – Evergreen Turf 2YO Plate
1. Advancing: Well bred well trialed and well backed home track 2YO.
2. Coronel: Crabbed around the corner here first up and was a decent enough run last start at Sandown. Blinkers on the big key.
3. Fake: Only a fair maiden win at Gosford. Others preferred for mine, not convinced he is top class.
4. Native Solder: 5th in the Balarat 2YO Classic. Blinkers on.
5. Ollivander: First up runner and hasn’t been backed. Not a known yard for early 2YOs.
6. Russian Romeo: Not bad in a trial for Purcell stable and blinkers go on. May be smart.
7. The Frontier: Another Price runner I Am Invincible colt. Less favoured by has been going well at home and still well in the markets.
8. The Mailman: Payne runner. Happy to take on a new trainer with a 2YO.
9. Zoutori: First up Zoustar runner. Breeding ok. Hasn’t been backed.
10. Anthemoessa: Ran well enough 2nd in the MM 2YO clssic for second. Has to make up 5 lengths though in comparison… will probably lead them.
11. Ennis Hill: Nice trial win on lead in and Williams takes the ride on an early 2YO type for Hayes stable. Have to respect based on Catchy starting prep this time last year.
12. Sizzleme: 2YO Filly first time seeing.
13. Via Regina: 2YO Snitzel Filly first time seeing.
Comments: A race where you need to see all the runners in the yard.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Ennis Hill to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – Moorookyle Park Handicap BM64
1. Good Therapy: Strong win first up at Geelong with a big weight and then failed to finish off when ran along too strongly out front at Moonee Valley last start. Get forward from barrier and step back in distance probably a positive along with the claimer onboard.
2. Little Bita Spunk: Nice run tow back as fav at Cranbourne but found one too good and then last start on a softer surface last start won well at Sale. 3kg claimer onboard and looks to lead from nice barrier. Hard to run down.
3. Mr Optimistic: Had a trial heading into this and blinkers go on. Goes ok first up and measured up in much harder company than this last prep including a 3-wide no cover 1400m run to finish 2nd behind Wayanka which is top class form. Previous run here held up runs 1400m at just missed. Can run well first up but will be very wide.
4. Toosbuy: Mornington winner last start in BM-64 grade with authority. Kersley takes the ride. Obviously has to improve again but nice barrier and good weight.
5. Dont Blush Baby: Two wins in a row in much easier than this on the way through the grades. Real testing material and chop king junior takes the ride.
6. Sacred Sham: Good trial lead in first up but was only fair through the line at Ballarat after hitting the lead a fair way out. Was a race won by swoopers so still have to respect this efforts and the step back in class here.
7. Toorak Playboy: Failed first up at sale. Last prep looked an ok type but didn’t impress enough.
8. Fortify: Ararat winner first up in much easier grade CL1. Strong jockey booking but unknown in this class.
9. Perfect Command: 3kg claimer onboard today after first up disappointment at Sale. Stays in 64 grade. Has to improve.
10. Trogir: Nice little win in easier at morphetville as favourite two back in hot time from on speed but failed in harder than this last start as favourite not leading. Expect can run well here.
11. Written in Stone: Strong win first up and then last start in harder than this looked a good thing beaten when ridden for luck and found none off a hot tempo. 1200m ideal and so is the barrier.
12. El Questro: Progressed through the grades this prep but found a few too good the last few runs. Last start to be fair though no chance on the run given.
13. El Rada: Got runs through the gaps but was run down late by a few better. Certainly a nice type and going the right way this prep.
14. Blithe Belle: Took a few runs to get going but finally got a win three back beating some nice types on a good track. Last two runs well below best. Win would be no total shock at big odds.
15. La Volt: Sale 2nd first up behind Little Bita Spunk. Big improvement needed to win this.
16. Rewarding Laughter: Failed last start off a freshen up from back. Previous run was nice but still more needed to win this.
17. Atlantic Express: Surprised to see he doesn’t get an automatic start based on best runs as a 3YO. Would go close.
18. The Bont: BM-58 winner. Big jump in class.
Comments: Expecting reasonable speed in this race but can’t exactly see any run away leaders pushing huge tempo. Little Bita Spunk and Good Therapy are expected to lead but Little Bita Spunk won’t go overly fast. For mine, Sacred Sham is the horse to beat in this with a strong early and late turn of foot to handle any conditions. El Rada, Blithe Belle, Written in Stone, Trogir, Mr Optimistic, Toosbuy and even Good Therapy all have claims in this wide open race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Sacred Sham E/W
Caulfield Race 3 – 1440m – Tile Importer Handicap – 3YO BM70
1. Poet’s Corner: First attempt on Heavy and from on speed at Sandown last start ran a solid race in 4th. Can improve here back to dryer. Maps further back here.
2. Egyptian Bullet: Decent win first up but then failed to fire in easier grade than this last start. Need to improve again in this grade.
3. Holy Freeze: Well backed last start at Sandown and found just one too good. Close finish. Get back run on type and poor barrier today.
4. Mactier: Strong run close 2nd last start at ballarat 2nd to Tezlah. Get back run on type. Goes well here. Step back in class here.
5. Kasi Farasi: Paraded poorly last start at Sandown and ran strongly for a close 3rd. Has improvement to come and push forward from barrier. Map 1 out 2 back at best.
6. Montaser: 1 start for 1 win in maiden company. Didn’t beat a lot and has to improve here.
7. Cutlass: Horrible last start. Previous run maiden win was much better obviously but even so has to improve for this level.
8. Grandioso: 5 runs and hasn’t gone close this prep. Take on even with blinkers back on.
9. Grand Crown: Three runs this prep for a maiden win and two defeats in easier class. Not for me.
10. Prepare to Win: Two wins in a row four and three back before stepping up in class the last two starts. Forgive run two back and last start super poor and too poor to be true. Forgive. Maps potentially 1 out 1 back or OL. 2kg Freddy claim has the horse very well in at weights.
11. Folk Song: Beaten fairly first up in maiden grade and then beat an easier race at Cranbourne last start from on speed. Has to improve but looks the likely leader here.
12. Fulton Street: Yet to win. No thanks.
Comments: Pote’s Corner, Holy Freeze, Kasi Farasi, Mactier and Prepare to Win look the ones to beat here while Folk Song looks well under the odds. Kasi Farasi maps the closest to the speed of the best horses in this and gets the nod at the odds. Prepare to Win may drift and from on speed might be a play at the jump based on track patterns.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Kasi Farasi – 1 units Each-Way @ $9.50/$3.20
Caulfield Race 4 – 1700m – Sheamus Mills Bloodstock Handicap 3&4YO BM70
1. Fudged: Presented in perfect order last start at Sandown and led them around but wasn’t good enough to hold them out from on speed. Maps midfield and can run well back into 3/4YO grade from back in the run back to dryer.
2. Angelucci: CL2 winner last start on the lead in – poor prize money race. Stable is placing them well over here though.
3. Red Choux’s: Weir runner. 3rd last start behind some good types at Sandown coming off a Ararat win. Get back run on type.
4. Wenner: Stable placing them well but this horse hasn’t won in 3 attempts this prep and stays in similar company here. Has to improve again on last few starts when beaten favourite two back.
5. Sassoon: Freshened up after running at places like Murtoa, Stawell and Cranny beaten 4L last start. Not here.
6. Vinland: Smashed them last start on the Heavy and was not ridden out. Back to a dryer surface. Maps to get a midfield to slightly more forward position. Stays in this class and looks well suited.
7. Domesticated: Hayes runner that couldn’t beat Hell on Earth last start. Has to find lengths to beat these.
8. Whistler Bowl: Sandown maiden winner last start over the 1800m when winning well. Times didn’t rate.
9. Valiant Spirit: Miaden winner to end last prep and started off with a 3L win over 1300m. Big jump in class here.
10. Atone: Smashed in betting last start at Sandown coming off a strong maiden win at Mornington. Made ground well but no match for Vinland. Better weighted today.
11. Found Out: Looked a nice type last start at Ballarat and won well in much easier grade. Big jump needed to measure up.
Comments: Vinland a huge standout on this card. Very keen to bet up and bet up hard.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Vinland – 8 units @ $2.40
Caulfield Race 5 – 1700m – Clanbrooke Racing Handicap BM84
1. Mrs Gardenia: Huge run two back in G3 grade at Sandown and then won with ease last start at Sandown. Stays at this grade today and maps well mid-field from the barrier. Good ride gives us every chance here.
2. Golden Mane: Failed first up on a heavy track at Ballarat. Back to dry and up in distance. Hasn’t won in a very long time. Hard to see 2nd up but expect to run well still.
3. Dylanson: Four runs this prep and has been freshened up after almost every run. Failed to go close all runs. Take on.
4. Shoreham: Ran home well first up 3rd behind New Universe on the heavy track at Ballarat. 1400m up to 1700m. Never won 2nd up in the past or at this track or distance.
5. Snitzelwood: Trial winner first up at Benalla and just didn’t handle the Heavy track first up it seems. Had the perfect run it felt like. Craig Williams takes the ride for a reason. 1400m up to 1700m. Ready to roll?
6. Guizot: Pakenham winner two back and then a close 2nd last start at Sandown on Heavy. 6 runs 0 wins on a Firm track in the past the big issue.
7. Portion Control: Hasn’t had a break this prep but did get freshened up. Looked well in the yard at Sandown but failed to handle the Heavy. Back in grade here – Williams takes a different ride.
8. Rib Eye: Poor run last start at Moonee Valley as favourite and hasn’t gone around since. Freshened for 50 days but has been scratched a few times. Respect but big ask again. Jockey query.
9. Eureka Street: Failed first up on the heavy but the issue really was the distance. Up to 1700m and up in grade. Did win last year at Flemington on a Good 4 over 2000m. Can run much better today.
10. Astro Castro: Bm-78 winner three back at Geelong and failed heavily since on firmer tracks. Needs it wet.
11. Shenandoah: Blinkers on. Coming out of easier races than this and really has to make an improvement.
Comments: Mrs Gardenia is the standout in the race while Snitzelwood running a peak run will be well suited here, as will Eureka Street who both map very well. Mrs Gardenia only needs to run up to the efforts displayed the past two runs to win this while runners need to improve lengths to match that level, so I have to play Mrs Gardenia here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Mrs Gardenia – 5 units @ $2.90 to win
Caulfield Race 6 – 2420m – Blue Star Print Group Handicap BM78
1. Ormito: Wasn’t the worst run last start in the Pakenham Cup and stays at this distance but drops back in class. 2kg claimer important. 8 runs 0 wins on good tracks an issue.
2. Lucques: Was expecting something last start but very plain. Wasn’t there from the yard either, hard to see right now.
3. Tucano: Seems a nice type but just isn’t delivering on the track. Have to be against here.
4. Weave: Strong win last start at Moonee Valley when never looked beaten.
5. Lycurgus: Went around favourite last start but track was too wet. Back to dryer and stays at distance. Go very well here.
6. Etah James: Two wins in a row but had them both run to suit. The testing material – much harder again.
7. My Psychiatrist: O’brien runner third up after two runs where she had every chance. Has to improve.
8. Parthesia: Smashed home to the line late last start from a no-win position. Ready to fire today back to a dryer track and up to 2400m. Respect here.
9. Serenade the Stars: Good type this import but just how good? Will get 2400m no issues and loves it firm. Has to step up and prove his worth.
10. Prince of Pagoda: Bendigo winner last start. Won two from three and stays the distance.
11. Crediton: Four runs this prep and none better than 3rd. Huge step in class.
12. Bint El Bedu: BM-70 winner last start beating some nice types including Serenade The Stars. No issues at distances.
13. Jimivag: Not going well enough for this.
14. Cheron Warrior: Solid run last start over 3000m and step back to 2500m should go ok. Not this league though.
Comments: Open race but keen to play here on Parthesia on the short back-up, up in distance and off a stronger tempo. Expect a more positive ride also.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 8, 12
Strategy: Parthesia – 1 unit Each-Way @ $17/$5.00
Caulfield Race 7 – 1440m – Ladbrokes Open Handicap
1. Chamois Road: Back to dryer track favoured here. Had a few weeks between runs and chop king onboard. Has to be respected on speed.
2. Sadaqa: Not the worst runner and was a very respectable 5th last start a month between runs before coming here. On speed nice type.
3. Hazzabeel: Change of stables. Hasn’t shown enough in a while to suggest a good run here.
4. Velox: Blinkers off. First up today and never won first up in the past. Needs further.
5. Mubakkir: Three runs this prep. First two only fair but last start did enough to suggest improvement here. Williams on and on speed runner.
6. Dan Zephyr: Good run two back in the China Bowl and Aeratus franked the form since. Last start too wet. Visor on.
7. Onerous: Back to dryer here and has been running very well the past two starts. Win won’t shock.
8. Ozi Choice: Flying! Super win last start at Morphetville going way too fast early. On speed small weight hard to hold out.
9. Thelburg: Expect to push forward today. Last start poor run but previous run good enough with 51kg here.
10. Urban Ruler: Bar plates first time. Have to take on with them on. Forgive runs the past two.
11. Orient Line: Get back run on type that doesn’t win often. Can’t entertain on recent form either.
12. Star Fortune: Two back winner at Cranny before a respectable 5th at Rosehill last start. Bad barrier.
13. In Fairness: Ran very well first up at MV and still has a load more improvement to come from the yard. Expect to run well but place here at best for mine. Next start.
14. Taddei Tondo: Got the win last start at Sandown. Was a nice win on the day but I question his ability to back that up here.
15. Bon Rocket: Two runs this prep and not close. No thanks.
Comments: Wide open race this one with several key chances. Couldn’t include them all in the Quaddie but this is 6-7 wide. Sadaqa and Mubakkir are both interesting runners freshened up while Dan Zephyr and Chammois Road are both in fine enough form to win this. Urban Ruler has to be taken on here. Ozi Choice is the top pick at the weights.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Ozi Choice E/W
Caulfield Race 8 – 1100m – Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap
1. Crystal Dreamer: Smashed them last start at Sandown and best run in the past was at course and distance. I’m happy with the rider change with 3kg claim and the barrier is the only concern. Best horse in the race.
2. Thermal Current: Not ready to run well first up but still ran a clear 2nd to Jungle Edge. Query the race as it was heavy form though.. needs to go to another level. Has won 4 from 8 2nd up in the past though.
3. Setinum: First up here off an ok trial. Showed nothing last prep a big concern.
4. Fast Cash: Getting on in age and not winning often. Happy to take on in this.
5. Glenrowan Prince: Three runs this prep and not got within 3L. Take on here others preferred.
6. Got the Goss: Strong heavy track winner last start but this is a big step up in class for mine again. Back to firmer no issues but has to improve.
8. Oberland: This horse is ready to fire today back to 1100m and back to a turning track. Get back run on type with a low weight who will be flying home late. Stable have a big opinion of him.
9. Danuki: Five runs this prep. Failed in easier grade last start at MV but two previous runs were sound.
10. Runson: 955m is the horses distance, take on at the 1100m.
11. Ballet Master: Two solid wins in a row at Sale going through the grades but fairly beaten last 3 starts by 3L or more. Needs to improve with the freshen up.
12. Sovereign Duke: Swan Hill winner over 975m by 5 lengths. Up to 1100m obviously the query but this horse has loads of ability and runs fast.
13. Manolo Blahniq: Good return first up 2nd to Club Tropicana. Can improve and run a nice race again here from a good barrier.
Comments: Five clear standouts in the race in Crystal Dreamer, Thermal Current, Got the Goss, Oberland and Sovereign Duke. Expecting the speed to be red hot here and swoopers will have every chance. Very keen on Oberland to run well here and happy to play at the odds.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 8, 12
Strategy: Oberland – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.88
Caulfield Race 9 – 1100m – Le Pine Funerals Handicap F&M BM84
1. Single Note: Ballarat 8th first up. Goes better 2nd up on past runs but this is a big step up in grade. No thanks.
2. Tykiato: Nice type of horse but three runs this prep and hasn’t got closer than 1.9L off a win. Can improve with 52 days between runs though.
3. Brugal Reward: Strong momentum win last start at Ballarat. Has to make another step up in grade here and was peaking in the yard last start a query.
4. Sasayuri: Four runs this prep – Three back behind Proud Wolf wasn’t bad but was beaten a long way as 2nd favourite at Albury last start. Has to improve and get a win on the board this prep.
5. Lopertega: First up today and is 6 runs for 0 wins first up in the past. Big ask in this grade and I just have to take the horse on.
6. Petite’s Reward: Good win five back over 1000m but since then has been beaten a long way every time. Not for me.
7. Chiavari: Always parades well. Ran last on the heavy at Sandown a big concern. Run three back would go well here.
8. Essence of Terror: Two runs on return this prep and up in grade again here after being fairly beaten. Not this grade for mine.
9. Mamzelle Tess: Nice type on previous preps. Best measures up to this but best is always later into preps and over further.
10. Strykinglee: Good run 2nd last start at MV when looked the winner before I Boogi came over the top late. Respect enough here.
11. Club Tropicana: Two wins in a row and has strong form lines coming into this. Written in Stone can frank the form early in the card.
12. If Not Now When: Good trial win leading into this. Hasn’t won in over 10 runs and is a get back run on type. Not with this jockey.
13. Creativity: Should be more forward in run today. Looked the winner last start but grabbed late when fitness gave out. Has to be respected from barrier.
14. Love Days: Ran ok at Ballarat but was horrible in the yard. Can improve and run well here.
15. Certain Ellie: Win wouldn’t be a total shock off a forgive run first up.
Comments: Hard way to end the day. A few nice types at odds to watch for from the yard. Wide late in the Quad.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15
Strategy: Creativity E/W
