Welcome to The Profits preview from Caulfield 15 July 2017. Back to our track of choice in Caulfield with several horses we know well gracing the card. Impressive winner Schism backs up off the win for us last week and goes around as our best while the Moe 2YO winner Bandipur is our next best on the cards – impressive type. I won’t be as active this week on twitter as I’ve got a few meetings to attend up in Sydney on Saturday so won’t be on course, but will still be watching the races and results eagerly. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Schism – 6 units @ $3.40 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Bandipur – 5 units @ $3.20 to win.
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 5 – Onpicalo – 1.5 units @ $7.00 to win. Coldstone 1.5 units @ $7.00 to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – Lord of the Sky – 1.5 units @ Betfair SP (Starting Price) to win – suggest you bet Top Fluc if you don’t have Betfair.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – TROA Supports Jockeys Trust Plate
1. Domino Vitale: Quality horse at her very best with two wins in a row in similar grades last prep over 1600m. First up run on soft ware poor with top weight over 1200m. Never placed 2nd up is an issue and takes a few runs to get into prep.
2. Mr Gustavo: Two runs this prep and hasn’t gone close on either occasion with no excuses. Previous prep similar. Listed winner over in NZ on Good track… has to refind form.
3. Data Point: Continues to run well and just miss behind some very good horses. Back to 1400m and Caulfield where should be suited from a very positive barrier. Nicely weighted back to this grade. Rates to win and win well. Only issue is 6 runs 0 wins on good surfaces.
4. Violent Snow: Two wins in the past 6 runs and hasn’t been far off on others. Tough barrier and type of horse that needs luck to get over them late.
5. Orient Line: Finally got a win last start back to the Pakenham Synthetic off some frustrating runs as the horse clearly has very good ability. May simply just be a synthetic horse? Maps back to run on from inside barrier.
6. Lord Tennyson: Won two of last 3 with a fail in between on a good surface. Best seen on wetter tracks in the past a big query. Has ability and will push over from the wide gate.
7. Dane Thunder: Non-winner that continues to mix it’s form. Good run 2nd last start in easier. Step up here.
8. Hardern: Last win was over 2200m+. First up today and never won first up or at distance. Suggest others.
9. Pakaya Prince: Good on speed win from a softish lead last start at Sandown. Continues to rn well and making his way through the grades. Respect on merit.
10. Emoji: Nice win in much easier grade two back at Pakenham Synthetic before beaten 5 lengths by orient line last start. Hard to see the improvement.
11. Sir Mask: Continues to go around in nice races and run well without winning. Up in distance a bit of a trow at the stumps again off 1200m runs. Up in class makes it hard.
13. Mr Optimistic: Continues to catch the eye. 1200m up to 1400m may just do the trick for this talented sprinter that finds the line well. In well at the weights back in class. Fly home late.
14. Spearhead: BM-64 grade winner in nice fashion controlling the speed last start. Huge ask.
Comments: Expecting a fair tempo on and for every horse to have their chance. No real standout on form and while Data Point looks the best horse, I couldn’t touch at the price. The same goes for Orient Line off synthetic form. Mr Optimistic is the horse that I think gets all the favours with the right run. Will bounce out of barrier 1 and find a handy spot just off of midfield on the rail and i’m expecting Baster to find a few backs coming into the straight before finding a gap to get clear running to come over the top of them late – the two favourites from out the back will be covering 5-6 metres extra in the run compared to our horse and that is where I see the advantage.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Mr Optimistic E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – John & Denise Cobcroft Handicap
1. Bandipur: Godolphin have thought the world of this cold since his trial in November and his forgive run at Moonee Valley, but instead of pushing him on they sent him back out to mature. He came back in majestic fashion at a Moe maiden winning by 8 lengths on a soft 7 and the time was impressive. This horse is the real deal.
2. Takemehomemister: 2YO winner for the Hawkes stable first up at Bendigo last month. Nice enough win on the day and was respected in the market. Can run well.
3. Sheer Madness: Maiden winner last prep at Pakenham in maiden grade over further. Measured up well enough in the BD preludes but clearly not top top level. Has trialled very well heading into this prep though.
4. Chiyou: Respected in the market this first up colt. Obviously been trialling well.
5. Evolutionist: Solid second behind Takemehomemister at Bendigo and can improve up to 1200m.
6. Flash Cash: Two runs this prep and both seconds. Still a maiden and needs to improve.
7. I Did It Again: Trialled second at Pakenham on lead in. Has ability.
8. Mission Vision: Trialled beaten 2L at St Arnaud on the lead in. Hard to get a full hold of but others preferred.
9. The Deckeraider: Market drifter, unseen.
10. Aljawzaa: Gawler winner for the Hayes stable last prep. Returned with a good second in Fillies grade at Sandown from a good spot in running.
11. Grand Casino: Didn’t show alot the two runs on record. Take on.
12. American Summer: Maiden runner, placed last start but this is much harder.
14. Fox Swift: Wangaratta maiden 2nd beaten fairly by 2.75L. Winner was smart.
15. Kaimu: Trialled only fairly at St Arnaud. Happy to take on.
Comments: I’m very keen that Bandipur is the absolute real deal. The barrier ensures we should be 2 wide or 3-wide with cover on how the horse maps. Expect a very good run.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Bandipur – 5 units @ $3.20 to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – Henry Dwyer Racing Handicap
1. Hot Dipped: Legit clas horse. Best runs for mine seen over further but has won in 3YO grade over 1200m in the past. Hard to knock first up back to Fillies but clearly has to be at best.
2. O’rachael: NZ import with some very good Good 3 form lines. Will be on speed and hard to run down. Just ignore the last start run on Heavy – this horse wants it dry!
3. Moonlites Choice: Ran fairly for 5th last start at course over similar distance behind Unique Lovely. Can run better here and has to be respected.
4. Moonlover: Won a lower grade Geelong race last start off some average form. Has to improve back to 3YO grade but not a lot.
5. Suspenders: Down from up North where she has been looking well in the yards. Ran home well but too far back last start. Has ability.
6. Abriola: Won two in a row and steps back to 3YO grade where she didn’t measure up in the past. Just 2.8 off Fuhryk four runs back is good enough form based on progression. Maps well.
7. If Not Now When: Continues to be ridden too far back. I imagine from barrier 4 today they take their chances and try and sit at least midfield at worst. Top type.
8. Bay Harmony: Two runs for two wins this prep going through the grades on any surface. Times not overly great though.
9. Dazzy’s Day: BM-64 grade winner beating an okay type on soft last start. Has some ability but needs to find about 2 lengths to measure up here.
10. Pete’s Dragon: Was backed first up at Geelong and just missed before a interesting ride at Sandown and ran 3rd. Clearly has ability.
11. La Renarde: Just missed the past three starts in easier races and seems to find it hard to find the line with a win. Poor barrier others preferred.
13. Rockmeartie: Ararat maiden winner but fairly beaten in BM-58 last two starts. Have to take on.
Comments: Several key chances in this race. O’Rachael could surprise from out front at big odds while Abriola is going through the grades well. Even a better ride today more forward on If Not Now When would see it a good winning chance. Happy to take on Moonlites Choice at the price.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back If Not Now When, Abriola and O’Rachael.
Caulfield Race 4 – 2000m – Laming Racing Handicap
1. Kiwia: Found himself more forward than expected last start and won with ease in a race lacking in pace runners or on speed chances. Same class and distance and better barrier.
2. All Out of Love: Got back and ran on with luck last start. Expect a similar ride apart from the fact he will have to go around them from this barrier.
4. Royal Order: Good win two back at Flemington but failed at Caulfield and didn’t pull up with any issues. Can run better than that.
5. Snipfit: Well beaten over 1600m last week when not backed. Previous run was decent but not top class.
6. Meat Traders: Well fancied Gelagotis stable horse. Good run 2nd over 1800m last start in Adelaide and back to dryer ground looks more suited.
7. Savvy Dresser: Looked great in the yard last start and ran accordingly. Fairly beaten on the day and hard to see the form turn around from wide barrier.
9. Toffatin: R-58 winner two back but fairly beaten behind Kiwia last start. Not for mine.
10. Arohata: 1900m Geelong winner the past two starts. Step up in grade but does look to have ability enough to run well.
11. Windbern: Looked well enough in the yard last start and led all the way fairly beaten. Not sure how he turns it around on top 3 today.
12. Dandre: Balarat winner heading into this today. Didn’t run poorly 4th to Greviste two back.
13. Eureka Street: Couldn’t win a BM-64 grade race at Geelong last start and steps up to 2000m. Hard ask.
14. Moshway: Smashing run two back at Flemington leading them around at a big pace and just being run down late. Expect similar today.
15. Seattle Park: Geelong maiden winner last start. Only looks an average type even with First Approach form.
16. Shadow Prince: 2nd at Geelong in BM-64 grade last start. Maiden win over 2000m was good. Has some ability but this is a big ask today.
17. Presscot: Unplaced CL1 and BM-64 grade past two starts. Did run very well previous prep over 2040m 2nd to Wheal Leisure at MV though and I can understand the placement here.
18. Carak: CL1 winner this prep but failed to place in harder grades last two starts. Others better.
19. Hussor: Beaten 4.7L+ last three runs. Hard to suggest anything.
Comments: Moshway can run another huge on speed run pushing the tempo and be hard to run down. Can’t touch Royal Order off the last start fail at the price while Kiwia is rated slightly larger on my ratings. Meat Traders one to watch for improvement. Presscott doesn’t look hopeless at his best the $67 odds look wrong.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Kiwia to win. Smaller bet Presscott.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1700m – National Jockeys Trust Plate
1. Onpicalo: Should have won last start at course and similar distance on a track that suited on the day. Wide barrier and expect the apprentice to try and lead at all costs today, as in sit first or outside the leader in run. Will have every chance with a 3kg claimer onboard back to BM-90 grade and is super well suited.
2. Swacadelic: Needs further to find his very best.
3. Coldstone: Very solid win at course and similar distance well down in the classes last start. Up in class but still well in here after starting favourite in harder grade two back. Looks the main danger.
4. Lucky Paddy: Two solid runs without getting close on the lead in. Best seems to still be below this and best seen on wetter.
5. Show a Star: Going well this prep and this is a step back in grade. Has to be respected and will be on speed. Query on the scratching by stewards last week.
6. Nesbo: Won a very low grade race last start over 1400m. Certainly can improve onwards here but looks well outclassed for mine.
7. Vassal: Waller runner that is best seen over 2400m+. Didn’t show a lot to be on first up run.
8. First Course: Stable flying so hard to just ignore but best days seem to be behind him. Will be on speed but struggling late.
9. Step the Pedal: Tassy runner. Didn’t measure up to Schism level in mares grade last start. Harder here and needs to improve up in distance. Hard to see.
10. Freshwater Storm: Only one paced plugging away last start in the perfect race. Needs more runs.
11. Clairvaux: Flashed home to my eye last start in easier grade. Up in grade and stays at same distance. I wanted to see him in easier.
12. Bling Dynasty: Has been backed. Strong final 200m from the back second up. Looked a good type before injury in 2015. Has to be respected but better over further.
13. Like the Clappers: Two very poor runs heading into this and very happy to oppose today.
14. Portion Control: Continues to run ‘well’ without going close to winning and that won’t be changing today.
Comments: This looks a very open and closed race for me. Onpicalo, Coldstone, Show a Star and Bling Dynasty are the real chances in the race. Anything else is an upset and a blowout that i’m prepared to suffer. Onpicalo and Coldstone are clearly the two I want to be with here and i’m happy to back both equally from their perfect maps on speed with a tough pace on out front on a track that should suit those on speed. Happy to stick with Onpicalo and Coldstone to get the job done.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Onpicalo – 1.5 units @ $7.00 to win. Coldstone 1.5 units @ $7.00 to win.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – TAB Supports Jockeys Trust Handicap
1. Revolving Door: Had the race run and won last start at Caulfield but for mine was ridden just a little too pretty and was run down late. Will be tougher for the run third up and down to 55kg looks well suited. Doesn’t get as good a run on mapping today though and could sit behind Enigman and Nikitas in the run.
2. Nikitas: Continues to run well without winning. Two back form looks a bit better now and the last start run was wide no cover and ran well. Better barrier today and good weight with claims. Can win.
3. Throssell: BM-70 grade winner three back. First up at Caulfield was beaten 3.5L but was held up for runs and wasn’t pushed out. Can sit much further forward from barrier and can improve significantly here.
4. My Paisann: Looked the real deal coming from last to win in great fashion. Has to be respected again today and looks well suited once again.
5. Valliano: Covered a load of ground last start too far back in running. Will run much better here from barrier 2 as he will be closer to the speed. Respect.
6. Enigman: Had his chance last start but just couldn’t get past Revolving Door. Maps better today and also well in with Winkers on. Will be fitter for the run.
7. Wayanka: Fairly beaten from on speed last start at Flemington. Previous runs were fair but not super.
8. Ville Chanson: Geelong synthetic winner in BM-64 grade. Huge step up. No thanks.
9. Wenner: Two wins in a row in much easier grades. No thanks.
10. Notio: Beaten in BM-64 grade last start. No.
11. Toorak Cowboy: Failed last start. Previous runs fair at best.
12. Vin Fiz: Heavy maiden winner. Not great last start.
Comments: Top 6 numbers in running clearly the ones to beat. Revolving Door looks a lay from the mapping today for me with others better suited. My Paisann is a big query to back up and put in such an effort again while Enigman is simply under the odds. Nikitas is the top bet here while Valliano maps to win. Throssell is the chance to be a big improver at big odds.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Back Nikitas, Valliano and Throssell.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1100m – PFD Food Services Monash Stakes
1. Lord of the Sky: Loves this grab and goes well in this grade. Trialled super over 760m heading into this run. Clearly the leader in the race and suited from the barrier.
2. General Truce: Just the 1 win in the past from 18 runs at this race. Now a 9 year old and the best is behind him. Never measured up to this top grade.
3. Divine Ten: Very well backed first up last prep in a similar grade of race but failed to frie on both runs. Had enough time between runs and at his best over at Sha Tin would measure up.
4. Daytona Grey: First up run was very well beaten and fairly too. Never quite had the ability to beat this grade in the past.
5. Murt the Flirt: Last prep went forever and finished up competing on the Gold Coast where he ran well enough but couldn’t beat much. Will need to have improved again.
6. Chocolate Holic: WA import that has measured up to the top level over there over further. Trialled well enough heading in but clearly needs further.
7. Supido: Two preps back measured up as a good type over these distances with a G1 third behind Black Heart Bart and Under The Louvre. Last prep failed to fire in the Lightning before on heavy 3rd in G2 and beaten in The Galaxy. Certainly has the ability on paper but looks very short for a get back run on type here.
8. Cashed: BM-90 grade winner last start beating some average types. Best runs in the past are still a step below this grade.
9. Sunday Escape: Very good run two back at Caulfield and then up in class last start respectable 4th behind Ability. Can run well but has to improve again clearly.
10. O’Malley: Looked okay last start but fairly beaten behind Lake Como down the straight. Always shown ability but has to go up another level here.
Comments: This is a very low-grade Group 3 field. Lord of the Sky will be able to control the pace and if he has come back good enough, they won’t be running him down. Will get 3 lengths on his main rival Supido coming into the straight and that little bit of late rain on Thursday will keep the track closer to Good 4 than Good 3 which is ideal.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 7
Strategy: Lord of the Sky – 1.5 units @ Betfair SP to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – LUCRF Super Supports Jockeys
1. Beatniks: First up for the new stable in Victoria. Handicap winner at Doomben on heavy in the past but also on a Good track. Goes well first up and has to be respected.
2. Sullivan Bay: Got us the win last start at big odds with ease from on speed. Grey Street scratched is a big bonus here. Will take a VERY good horse to get past Sullivan Bay based on her getting the dream run out front again.
3. Forgeress: Only fair last start when wide the trip and battled on. Needs a tougher tempo.
5. Sahara Chill: First up today after an average last prep in easier races. Find it hard to place her here for a win.
6. Divine Chills: Very nice sprint form heading into this coming from just off the pace and holding on late. Back to dryer the only negative on recent form and up in grade. Has to measure up to the big time. May just do that.
7. Zara Bay: Terrible last start when only held ground to the line. Previous start was a good run over the 1000m when just got there too late. Has to improve.
8. Fine Approach: First up at Morphetvill beaten 5 lengths. Doesn’t exactly improve second up on previous runs and this is hard task.
9. Foreign Affair: Ran nicely enough 3rd behind Sullivan Bay last start. Had every chance on the run and wants them to run along faster to have a chance.
10. Adalita: Synthetic 2nd at Geelong a few weeks back and has to improve significantly on that after a dream run.
11. Euston Road: Has shown the ability in the past to blow fields away, but then find nothing. Had vet issues to end last prep. Best is good enough but hard to see it.
12. Nadeem’s Melody: Couldn’t place the past three starts in BM-64-70 grades. Not here.
Comments: Sullivan Bay maps a dream again. She will get out the front, lead around the turn and be hard to get past. Divine Chills looks to have the ability to have every chance to run past today while Beatniks could be good enough to win and Euston Road has the X factor if ready to fire.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 11
Strategy: Sullivan Bay to win.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – OTI Racing Handicap
1. Kenjorwood: Old mate is double figures but if he gets into single figures I suspect it means he may just be ready for the win. He was going well early in the prep but has fallen back after a lameness issue. Has to improve.
2. Mihany: Blinkers off. Will be ridden less forward today resulting in Airalign/Schism or Tried and Tired leading it up with Here to There at a moderate tempo. Has to improve.
3. Tried and Tired: Continues to run VERY well this prep and ran a solid 3rd last start at Flemington over this distance range. Stays in this class and gets in well enough at weights again. Maps good.
4. Velox: Hasn’t been seen for over 470 days and it’s hard to suggest first up that this bloke could take care of a field of this grade.
5. Airalign: Looked horrible in the yard last start but ran a blinder with a big weight from on speed out the front in a low grade of race. This is much harder. Has to improve.
6. Leica Day: Another Weir runner that comes in off an only average last prep. First up and goes well first up and also goes well on Good tracks. Never won at distance though and best over further.
7. Moonovermanhattan: Hasn’t shown anything in a very long time form wise and best has been over further n the past. Hard to see.
8. Schism: Two wins in a row at Flemington over 1400m and looks ideally placed here today staying at 54kg and from a perfect barrier in 4. The horse to beat.
9. Invinzabeel: Ignore run last start with Atrial Fibrilation. On best runs in past is respected but need a perfect run to beat Schism.
10. Hipparchus: First up today. Never won at distance. Needs further.
11. Onerous: Three runs this prep and while he hasn’t been terrible, he had every chance against Nesbo last start and couldn’t win. This is harder.
12. Vital Importance: Ran very well 2nd behind Schism last start and doesn’t find this any easier. Will be out the back and running on. Was a good run 2nd but has to find a length or two.
13. Here to There: Every chance when second last start behind Nesbo. Really don’t rate the form and hate the spot he gets from the barrier.
Comments: Very short final leg of the Quaddie. Very keen on Schism to get the job done here
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 8
Strategy: Schism – 6 units @ $3.40 to win
