Welcome to The Profits preview from Caulfield and Randwick on 15 April 2017. The Autumn Carnival is coming to an end and that means we can focus closer on the Melbourne Form again. There are a few races worth looking at up north today, but generally, it’s hard to bet into heavy tracks as we have found the past few weeks. Caulfield walked a treat with no wear or tear and is a perfect betting surface. Large fields provides us with a few double figure odds bets on the card. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Turbo Miss – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $23/$6.25.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Scarlet Rain – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$3.50
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Leebaz – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $41/$11
Randwick Best Bet
Randwick Race 7 – Le Romain – 2.5 units @ $4.40 to win
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 8, 11, 12, 16
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 9, 11, 13, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 7 – 1400m – Schweppes All Aged Stakes
1. Le Romain: In stunning form this prep landing a Group 3 and WFA-G1 beating Chautauqua over 1300m who has since come out and won the TJ Smith. Fairly beaten behind Winx next start 2nd and was a 100% forgive run last start, anyone who says otherwise doesn’t have eyes. Back to 1400m is ideal for this horse today and he loves this track, loves it wet and will be well suited having to push forward from the wide barrier instead of getting stuck in traffic like last start.
2. Redkirk Warrior: Newmarket winner but failed on the heavy track in the Doncaster. Back to 1400m and yes he has to be considered a blowout chance.. but Heavy again and he looks up against it to me.
3. Japonisme: Loves it wet but hasn’t shown any real form the past two preps. Prefers it soft and not too heavy.. a bit of a picky bugger really.
4. Voodoo Lad: Well supported last start and ran home well enough for 5th in the TJ Smith. Step up in distance to 1400m is suitable having placed in G1 company previously over this distance.. but the ground and this grade of race is certainly the query.
5. McCreery: Group 3 winner three back in a low rating Group 3 race where Arod somehow ran 2nd and the horse isn’t a wet tracker at all. Two runs since has failed and that looks the issue.
6. Famous Seamus: Old mate got a listed win last prep but failed to fire on any other occasion. Getting on with the years and this looks outside of his ability. Does like it wet though.
7. Jungle Edge: Keeps running some cracking races and while the 1400m does look a big step up, i’m a believer that he will have no troubles with the distance. Looks a key chance here. Lead. Hard to run past.
8. Tivaci: Has had a very strange prep and I feel his very best is over even further than this. The targeting at the TJ Smith and Newmarket I believe doesn’t have him fit enough to win this on heavy.
9. English: Clearly the run of the race outside of Chautauqua in the TJ Smith. Is a WFA-G1 winner over this distance beating Black Heart Bart on a soft track. Handles heavy. Main danger to Le Romain. Query over needing to be vetted this week and pre-races.
10. Divine Prophet: Hard horse to rate. On his best, he is right in this, but he hasn’t gone anywhere close the past two starts this prep. Also unknown how he will go on heavy (I believe he will go fine)
Comments: Hard for me to pass up Le Romain here who is still over the odds. English looks the main danger while Jungle Edge could surprise from out front also. Divine Prophet and Redkirk Warrior are the only other two I can see testing Le Romain on ratings.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Le Romain – 2.5 units @ $4.40 to win.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1600m – Jack Elliott Handicap
1. Yulong Baby: Doesn’t win out of turn but at Caulfield has a strong record with two wins and a 0.1L defeat in the past 3 runs here. Very soft trial heading into this today but looks well suited if up to this grade.
2. Catch a Fire: Been backed all 4 runs this prep but best result was 0.4L 4th in an average race behind Missrock. Last start was average at best in the Gold Bracelet. Has to improve even at weights from inside barrier.
3. Lady Selkirk: Won three back at Sandown and then had two okay runs in harder company (no luck last start wide). Wide barrier means she needs luck again today. Has the ability.
4. Amarela: Hasn’t won for a very long time and the two runs in this prep haven’t inspired much confidence in a win here. Look for backing.
5. Ma Jones: Tatura winner last start as favourite and won very well. Was a win coming off a lameness issue at Sandown as favourite the previous start. Goes well at this distance and should run well today with a very solid weight from a good barrier.
6. Stella Etoile: Tasmanian runner. Has leveled up to BM-72 grade over there with two wins heading into this. Huge step up in grade though. Hard to suggest.
7. Hot Ruby: Well backed three runs back here at course and distance and ran well accordingly in similar grade. Two runs since have been average at best. If well backed look for her running well.
8. Quilate: Well backed favourite two back at Sandown and won well over some decent types from just off the speed. Similar position last start and ran on only okay on the day at Bendigo. Hard to suggest again even at the weights without knowing the horse had improved and will suit 1600m.
9. Kansas Sunflower: Two runs back over 1400m Was travelling like Black Caviar from the 500-200 at Sandown and then when the jockey asked the horse for an effort the horse either resisted heavily or found nothing on the soft track. Last was much better from far back at Sandown when 2.25L beaten over 1600m. I’m expecting from this barrier today that they try and push forward to sit 1 out 1 back or on the speed today as they have to make a tactics change to win here.
Comments: Yulong Baby is a big chance from last to fly over the top late if the crack is playing out that way early. Ma Jones maps for the ideal run and looks the clear top pick. Kansas Sunflower is the horse I think can improve if ridden forward today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Ma Jones and Kansas Sunflower
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Bill Collins Handicap
1. Al Passem: Two solid trials and came in and won a strong maiden race at Wangaratta in okay time from an ideal spot in run. Tough with top weight today.
2. Divine Red: Put in a nice enough trial heading into this but clearly needs the run here for mine and markets are against.
3. Easy Beast: $14 into $5. Jumped out at Cranbourne twice in the past and looks a very good type. Has strong gate speed and will lead. Money continues to come. D Dunn only negative.
4. Hove Actually: Drifted after opening single figures. Decent trial 2nd behind American Genius at Tatura. This stable is flying with 2YOs.
5. Many Rewards: Trailed well at Cranbourne but has been scratched a few times since which is a concern. Looks a good type in the making.
6. Premio Momento: Close 3rd first up at Wang when 2nd favourite on the day. Did really have his chance and this is much harder.
7. Under Oath: Three trials heading into this so no doubt about the horse being fit enough. Supported in market.
8. John’s Revenge: Well beaten 4th behind Al Passem last start. Better weighted here.
9. Redcore: Beaten 3.75L 3rd first up behind Eshtiraak before failing last start over the 1300m. Back to 1100m ideal and best would have him in this race.
Comments: Not a race i’m wanting to get involved in.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Easy Beast to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1100m – Bert Bryant Handicap
2. Every Faith: Nice enough soft trial heading into this prep first up. G3 2nd to start last prep behind Secret Agenda but failed to get a win the rest of the prep. Last win was over 1600m.
3. Spreadeagled: Went forward and had every chance last start at Mornington when fought on when we backed her on that Mornington track that suited front runners. Much harder here.
4. Secret Blend: Ran very well first up from out the back when 2nd to Punt Club over 955m. Up to 1100m should run well and gets 3kg claim. Has to improve again.
5. Chase The Horizon: Strong trial heading into this today. Last two preps has won in the city beating some nice types on both occasions. Can improve again this prep.
6. Punt Club: Old mate was never a factor last start in harder company. Back to this grade and certainly found his niche at Moonee Valley. Questionable over this distance.
7. The Dynamo: Finished off last prep down in grade in a slow track win over 1000m (harder class than this). Goes well enough first up. Will need to be at his best to beat these. Can do it.
8. Aunty Mo: Hasn’t really been close on any occasion this prep but wasn’t a terrible run last start. Blinkers off and has the ability on best runs in the past.
10. Schneller: Took several runs last prep to find some form and the best run was on a heavy track. Has to improve to be a chance here.
11. Star Stealer: Given no chance last start at Bendigo when out the back and ran on very well for third. Very tough from that barrier.
12. Firsthand: A horse with some very solid form as a 3YO. Went up to Sydney and ran some nice races but clearly better the Melbourne way. Looks really well suited from the barrier.
13. Sir Mask: Surprise winner last start and up in grade again back in distance. Will be pushing forward again with 3kg claim from barrier 1.
14. Typhoon Jolie: Plain first up when went hard out front and was well beaten at Mornington.
15. Grey Street: Impressive runs last prep and just failed to get a win. Small spell and right back at it. This horse is legit and has the ability to beat all these home. Barrier suits.
16. Miss Vista: Two solid trials heading into this today. BM-70 grade winner to finish last prep showed she clearly has the ability that has been suggested by the hype. Nice barrier go forward and run well.
17. Weather The Storm: Every chance both runs heading into this. Has to improve onwards again today and step back to 1100m obviously suits
18. Stringer Bell: First up coming off BM-70 win last prep in easier company. This is the hardest test to date and I struggle to suggest.
19. El Sicario: Held up for runs last start at Mornington behind a nice type in Schism. Was a good lead in run and similar grade of race here. Has the ability to go well at weights from the barrier.
20. Chapel Road: First up off an average trial run. Previous prep BM-70 grade win at best. Has to improve.
Comments: Ugly race to be betting into with so many runners. Will be a fair few hard luck stories. Grey Street is a horse very much in my blackbook and worth backing while Firsthand will go much better the Flemington way and will measure up to group level later in life. Miss Vista will obviously run well while Star Stealer from a horrible barrier will put a nice run in.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Firsthand and Grey Street
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Spicer Thoroughbreds Handicap
1. Throssell: Horrible barrier for a horse that might very well be going back in the run today. I’d suggest they need to try push forward. Won easy last start in easier grade of race in BM-70 grade over 1400m and stays at this distance. Obviously a good horse.
2. Another Coldie: Weir runner. Won it’s last two going through the grades in Adelaide. Back to Melbourne and looks to be the testing material today. Goes back from the barrier you would expect again.. but let’s say midfield?
4. Theodolite: The leader on speed maps. BM-64 grade winner last start at Benalla on a Soft 6. Up to 1400m looks reasonable to expect but this is another step up in grade and needs to improve.
5. Butch Kissidy: BM-64 grade winner at Pakenham beating some okay types by lengths. Looks to have some top class ability but maps for a tough run from the barrier.
6. So Poysed: BM-64 winner two back and then well up in class ran nicely for 4th in the Bendigo Guineas not disgraced one bit. Back in grade but clearly has to produce a better run to win this again.
7. Just Hifalutin: Two from two and not going much wrong. Last start only just got there and has to improve up to the 1400m.
8. Inspired Estelle: Four runs this prep and best effort was 3rd at Sandown. Well beaten the last two starts including as favourite two back. 1600m back to 1400m looks ideal and needs to find the form of three back to have a chance.
9. Waterloo Sunset: Two runs this prep for the Hayes stable and has found nothing either run this prep. Best should have her running well but struggle to suggest it.
10. Plenty to Like: BM-64 winner three back. Last two runs have been okay without impressing. This looks a test.
11. Tenappy Ladies: Maiden win two back at Sandown. Was a nice enough win for mine on the day. Last start in CL1 though at Pakenham was very disappointing as favourite. May need it softer.
13. Nina’s Ballerina: Maiden winner two back at Bendigo in a large 3.5L distance. Failed in the Bendigo Guineas last start.
14. Armedanddangerous: Failed to place the past 4 runs and never looked likely. Take on.
15. Kaptive Hero: Griffiths stable runner that won two back in maiden class and ran fairly in BM-64 but fairly beaten on the day. This is much harder.
Comments: Another TOUGH race to pick the winner. Another Coldie hopefully will sit further forward and any chance to use #BackWeirDrinkBeer is good with me. Tough race over all.
Confidence 55%
Strategy: Another Coldie E/W
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – Geoff Murphy Handicap
1. Scarlet Rain: Failed as favourite last start on the Heavy last start at Randwick hen well backed. Previous runs leading in were good and she is a Group 2 winner in the past. Sent down here for a dryer track and finds it. Top weight but get sin well with the claim. Going forward anyway so no issues with barrier.
2. Selenia: Consistent type that has won a Group 3 in the past. Just not top class but very close to that level. Placed 3rd in Group 3 two back. Never placed 5 runs at Caulfield.
3. Merriest: Nice lead in run at Flemington down the straight. First prep won very well at course and distance and then won very well next prep at Moonee Valley. Clearly has some top ability and should run well.
4. Modern Wonder: Not disgraced this prep. Just failed on heavy last start… not suited two back at MV and just missed first up at MV. Goes well here with close 2nd and 3rds on the form.
5. Moonlites Choice: Weir runner that was raced outside of grade last prep and then didn’t measure up in grade. Looked better than that when beating Diamond Baroness.
6. If Not Now When: Strong wins in first prep. Failed to fire last prep and first up showed very little. Hard to suggest.
7. Moonlover: Didn’t measure up in 3YO grade the last two preps so went back to BM-64 first up and smashed them at Cranbourne. Obviously has ability but may have gone to the next level this prep.
8. Overstep: Just the 1 win on record to date and hasn’t really had any excuses in the past either. Good run third last start at Flemington from on speed just found two too good. Respect enough.
9. Soviet Secret: Maiden winner. Failed to measure up to the top level after that over 1600m. Previously did run okay over 12000m in Group company. Felt like she went backwards last prep and others went forwards.
10. Getemhel: Solid win first up at Geelong but didn’t beat much. Back to her own grade. Best on wetter in the past.
11. Clockwork Orange: A horse that has been fancied a decent type around the Hayes stable, she has failed ot measure up when asked in similar grades. Has to improve.
13. Snitty Kitty: BM-64 winner last start in nice time on the day. Previous form is hard to get a grip on to measure up here. Stable has a big opinion of her.
14. Alaskan Sun: 1300m winner two back at Sandown. Last start fairly beaten in easier grade of race. Back to sprints but hard to suggest on form.
15. Pearl Congenial: Two wins last prep in nice enough grades of races before failing at these levels. First up run was horrible.
16. Artemis Rose: Lightly raced Hawkes runner. Won a maiden in very strong time at Hawksbury (but that track is always fast). Horse clearly has ability but this is certainly a big jump!
17. Rose Ahead: Maiden winner that has failed to measure up in the next two starts even when backed as favourite. Big jump again.
18. Abriola: Maiden winner. Good 2nd to Fuhruk at Moonee Valley the next start. Been spelled and back fresh. Win wouldn’t shock.
19. Miss Vesper: Liked her first win but failed at Moonee Valley. Tough ask 3rd run ever.
Comments: ‘They’ say weight stops trains but I’m happy to take ‘them’ on. Scarlet Rain is the clear class runner in the race and looks very well suited back to a dryer track today. Will be leading them around and will be hard to run down.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Scarlet Rain – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$3.50
Caulfield Race 6 – 2425m – Robert Taranto Handicap
1. Boom Time: A little disappointing in the Mornington Cup when had the ideal dream run throughout and just didn’t find enough to get the win. Just may not have been suited by the extra strong tempo and may get it a little easier today.
2. Araldo Junior: Two very poor runs this prep over shorter. Best in the past has clearly been over these distances and looks ready to fire. Should be leading.
3. Hans Holbein: They ran it along at a huge tempo out front and he was just simply suited giving 7kg to the horse that ran 2nd beaten 3.5L and 6kg to the horse that ran 3rd 9L back. This is a very good horse and while he was very well suited by that tempo, he will still run well without it. Genuine G3 winner over this distance in the UK and ran 7th in the Epsom behind Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs.
4. De Little Engine: Strange not to see him in the Sydney Cup. Only ran fairly in the Adelaide Cup from off the speed too far back IMO. Previous run was decent behind Big Memory and previous run behind Second Bullet. Has to improve and tough barrier today.
5. Genuine Lad: Aimed at the hurdles not the staying distances… but this horse does still run well over these distances. Win would shock against the quality in this race though.
6. Self Sense: Not the worst run in the Cup last start from too far back. Previous run in Yarra Valley Cup had merit also. Have to respect ability but jockey booking makes it hard to consider.
7. Lucques: Loves a strong tempo out front over these distances and with a solid run last start heading into this will be well suited up to 2425m. Respect.
8. Try Four: Horrible as favourite at Mornington. trial since over hurdles. May just not be going as well as some thing.
9. Like a Carousel: Hasn’t won in a long time. Horrible in the Adelaide Cup. Average runs prior.
10. Hale Soriano: Three solid trials before not terrible 5th behind Hans Holbein but clearly out stayed. Has to improve.
11. Arch Fire: On track for another jumps campaign. Can still run well over these distances but clearly he is now solely just focusing on the 3000m+ racing.
12. Transfer Allowance: Two runs this prep over shorter distances. Wasn’t disgraced last start. Big jump straight up. Ran nicely last few preps over distances but never measured up to this level.
13. The Dominator: 2500m BM-64 grade winner and then a nice hurdle trial leading in. Outclassed but will stay.
14. Felix Bay: 2nd behind The Dominator leading in. Looking for a hurdles campaign also.
Comments: This is an awkward race. I can see Hans Holbein winning, no doubt.. clearly the best horse and best stayer.. but will the speed be on to make it a true test? I have to forgive Boom Time back to what looks an easier race, but giving weight to Hans Holbein doesn’t look right either. Two horse race for mine.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Hans Holbein. Saver Bet Boom Time.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – M & D Dillon Constructions Handicap
1. Rock Forthe Ladies: Hard horse to catch. Measured up on Soft last prep to win a good Open race at Randwick then failed to go close since. Previous prep did similar with form. Looks good enough to measure up in this grade if going well.
2. Tshahitsi: Tasssy horse. WOn a sprint over 1200m and was 1.9L off Admiral over 1400m the next start. Clearly has ability on past wins over there and looks well suited here if he is fit and ready to fire.
3. Sebring Sun: BM-84 win back in class last start at Bendigo and really got away with the win from a good spot. Going nicely enough but has to improve again from the awkward barrier.
4. Setinum: Listed grade winner to start last prep and then failed to find anything since. Two runs this prep were horrible. Hard horse to judge.
5. Shakespearean Lass: Open class winner first up at big odds and just beaten three back behind Thermal Current. Failed to go close since but this is a horse that mixes form from a stable that mixes form. Can run well and nicely weighted.
6. Gallant Harmony: Two disappointing runs to start the prep but may just have been needing the runs. Third up last prep peaked off some average form lines when up to 1200m.
7. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Consistent type that always runs well. Been going well in Open class recently and looks well suited to this.
8. Heza Ripper: Three runs this prep for 0 places. Last two runs in harder company were average without impressing. Too far back last start though so was probably a better run than it looked.
9. Taddei Tondo: 1400m back to 1200m and never won from 13 tries at this track in the past. Not going well enough.
10. Artie’s Shore: Bool local. Best clearly seen over much further than this in the past but does handle the sprints well also. Not very well fancied in betting.
11. Miss Gunpowder: Been a bit of a disappointment the past two preps failing to get a win. This horse clearly showed she had the ability to be a good horse in her first prep with a Group 2 win before failing in the Guineas. Last prep in BM-90 grade couldn’t find a win. Horse clearly wants to lead on a dry track. Gets her chance here off a nice lead in trial with the new Hayes stable.
12. Lake Como: Went to a level we had never seen previously last start with a devastating win at Flemington. Burnt the candle at both ends and won with authority. This horse could very well be better than these off that run and looks over the odds.
14. Electric Fusion: Not a sprinter. Never placed from 6 attempts. Just here for a run.
15. Greipel: Last prep best runs were in the country. Failed to get within 3L first up on suitable heavy ground at Albury. No thanks.
16. Boomwaa: Can never count out old mate who almost won two back at Flemington and three back at course and distance. Respect.
Comments: Miss Gunpowder appears to be the false favourite here. Shakespearean Lass looks a huge chance at odds and will run very well. RockForTheLadies is hard to catch but has to be considered also. HezaRipper on speed today can run better. Lake Como could be anything and has to be respected and Boomwaa has the runs to win this.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 8, 11, 12, 16
Strategy: Back Lake Como and Shakespearean Lass
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – MyPunter.Com Victoria Handicap
1. Arod: Would love to back Arod at Caulfield if it didn’t have Craig Newitt on. 91 rides for 2 wins at Caulfield the past 12 months… yes 2.2% win rate. This Season 48 rides 0 wins at Caulfield. 52 Flemington 0 wins. The horse is going well enough to actually win this but I can’t be near it.
2. Articus: Drawn awkwardly today and will need luck to get in for a strong run. Obviously proved to be a nice horse overseas in Germany but when he arrived here for the Caulfield Cup he was well below that grade on ratings and proved to be. Allowed to settle in should have taken improvement into this.
3. Hooked: Backed as if unbeatable two runs back beaten by He or She. Opened big odds and was well backed into single figures and ran well to just get beaten late in the piece. Last start never suited over the 1200m and up to this distance again obviously helps.
4. Kenjorwood: Well backed in the Doncaster Prelude last start on the Heavy track and failed to fire over the 1500m coming off two solid runs. Struggle to suggest on the three runs this prep without further distance increases.
5. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Has shown 0 reasons why we should be backing him today or at all this prep. Hard to even suggest a place.
6. Charmed Harmony: Two runs heading into this to get fit over unsuitable 1200m distances. Stable believe he is going well enough but the query is the ground being too firm on the day again for the horse. Also looks fierce early speed which he doesn’t always have the pace to match.
7. Hellova Street: Looks the likely leader today but has been ridden with sits in the past with success so doesn’t have to be ridden that way. Every chance they test him out front today. Loves it fast and dry.
8. Entirely Platinum: Hasn’t gone close to a win or place in quite a few preps/runs and the first up run was very average at best from on speed. Take on.
9. Rocket Commander: A very under-rated runner that continues to produce in listed and group company. Group 3 winner on Heavy two back but last start 1200m up to 1500m didn’t have the goods on the Heavy 9. Nice barrier and can run well here.
10. Master Reset: Cranbourne Cup winner last start in strong fashion. Freshened up and back down to 1400m the only negative as the horse has never won at this track and best has always been 1600m for mine. Will appreciate the speed on but tough barrier.
11. Dan Zephyr: Last win was in easier class in the China Bowl. Placed first up in the Apache Cat before being fairly average last start in the Hareeba. Looks suited up to 1400m but will certainly need luck getting the right run from the barrier.
12. Turbo Miss: TOUGH win two back in the Tressady before failing last start in the Sunline, but that wasn’t a surprise when they went along slowly out the front. Wasn’t suited but back to 1400m and strong tempo expected she will be coming over the top of them late from a good barrier.
13. Kaniana: Two runs this prep and found little on both occasions. Struggle to suggest a win or even place but if she is well backed we have to respect the Weir money.
14. Onpicalo: Been off for a long time after another solid prep with Handicap wins over 1600m. Better seen on wetter and other further deeper into preps.
15. Petrology: Impossible horse to catch so in this grade first up i’m more than happy to take on. Get back run on type.
16. Rhythm to Spare: Didn’t find a win from several runs last prep. Thrown in the deep end once again today and looks up against it.
17. Give Us a Go: Surprise/shock Gold Bracelet winner at Bendigo last start in a very solid win. Didn’t beat the classiest field of runners that day. This looks MUCH harder and change of jockey not ideal.
18. Broadway And First: Two solid runs in much easier company than this before failing to place last start at Bendigo in much easier. Couldn’t have him.
Comments: Hellova Street is the horse to beat here.. but will have to go very hard up the hill to hold the position with Hooked on the speed with Hellova Street and a few others and the tempo will be strong. The horse I know has a taste for strong/strong/strong speed in the race at big odds is the Weir runner Turbo Miss and i’m happy to have a nice E/W bet here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Turbo Miss – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $23/$6.25.
Caulfield Race 9 – 2000m – Le Pine Funerals Easter Cup
1. Leebaz: Has shown absolutely nothing this prep and has looked horrible on the Heavy tracks. Clearly sent down here to get away from Heavy to see what he can produce back up to 2000m. Beat Hauraki last prep over 1800m in G2 class.
2. Pornichet: Not terrible in the Doncaster Prelude but not great. Stable believe he is going well enough to keep running and trial before first run was useful. Testing material this.
3. Extra Zero: Never seems to run a bad race on the dry tracks and gets one here today. 2000m well suited off a sensational run in the Wang cup. Out the back running on.
4. Grey Lion: G3 2nd to Qewy in the Geelong Cup over 2400m before failing to see out the 3200m in the Melb Cup. Clearly looks a type best suited to 2000-2400m and handles dry tracks well. Respect here. Jockey doesn’t fill me with confidence.
5. Jacquinot Bay: Looked the winner 300m out in the Golden Mile when ran a brilliant race from off the speed but was claimed late by Observational over the top. Clearly going well and up in class here is suited. Barrier is horrible though.
6. Tom Melbourne: Gone up favourite after a very strong lead in trial. Strangely the stable are suggesting they may scratch due to the barrier which, in my opinion, is a positive. Get the horse to go forward and settle and roll.
7. Observational: Huge run and win last start at Bendigo backing up and winning the Golden Mile again. Much harder to produce that run here at Caulfield but clearly has the ability.
8. Dark Eyes: Canberra Cup winner coming off a decent Randwick win in BM-85 grade. Last strat failed in the Mornington Cup and was lame.
9. Purple Smile: Decent staying type. Won the Adelaide Cup last prep. Poor only run this prep. Needs further.
10. Goldstream: Disappointing on the Heavy last start and just simply a forgive run. Very strong run 2nd to Boom time two back over 2000m and won previously. Has been up a while but has been given a month between runs each time. Well in at weights.
11. High Church: Two runs this prep and both were solid without ever looking a winning chance. Has to improve onwards and upwards again and while that can happen third up, this looks a tough ask especially from the barrier.
12. Second Bullet: Smashed them first up in a very solid time before they went slowly out front and then ran home solidly in a race that just didn’t suit. Last start over futher at Adelaide didn’t suit and looks better here today. Good barrier.
13. Tarquin: Two runs in this prep. Ran nicely without even threatening in the Golden Mile. Up to 2000m should be suiting, but this is a horse that couldn’t best Lord Durante last prep over 2040m at Moonee Valley. Query for mine.
14. Double Bluff: An out and out stayer than ran a massive race in the Adelaide Cup. Needs further to find his very best.
15. Zasorceress: Since winning in much easier grade in impressive style at Moonee Valley she has run 2nd twice beaten 0.1L and fairly beaten on the other two occasions. I don’t think she handled the heavy track last start but have to consider her off the G3 win two back.
16. O’Lonera: Won 3 in a row at course and distance last prep going through the grades before failing in the two top class runs to finish the prep. Three runs in this prep and I thought the last start effort against the horses usual pattern was very telling. Can expect a nice run today.
17. War Legend: Got back and ran on well with Observational in the Golden Mile and obviously found one too good. Previous run 2nd to Strike Force was good also. Up to 2000m where has failed to place in the past a concern.
18. Transfer Allowance: Failed to measure up in much easier grades in the past. Will stay but not good enough.
19. Unfurl: Freshened up after a nice win at course and distance and has failed to flatter on either occasion. Hard to suggest in this class.
Comments: Wide open race. Wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see Leebaz return to form here and the step up to 2000m looks ideal in a race where he really should get to run them around at his own pace when Tom Melbourne is scratched. Grey Lion looks the under-rated horse in the race, even with that jockey onboard.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 15
Strategy: Leebaz 0.5 units Each-Way @ $41/$11
Caulfield Race 10 – 1600m – Bravo Greg Miles
1. Great Esteem: Continues to run well this prep without winning. Well backed last start behind Burning Front and fairly defeated. Previous start with a big weight ran well also fairly beaten in the Cranbourne Cup. Can run well again and loves this prep. Early speed required to get the lead today though.
2. Hazzabeel: Not a bad run first up in the Apache Cat before failing hard over 1400m. Hard horse to rate on current form lines. Kilmore Cup winner and Group 3 placed last prep over 1500m.
3. French Emotion: False favourite? Beaten 3L in a race that was run to suit last start over 1600m at Moonee Valley and I have queries at this distance with such a stronger tempo today. Also queries over jockey and barrier.
4. Longeron: 3L off Great Esteem over 1700m here last prep. Failed to show anything either run this prep. Probably needs it wetter.
5. Nevis: First up coming off a disappointing last prep where the horse found nothing. Should be on speed leading them around with Great Esteem at a strong tempo. Have to return to previous best form that won a golden Mile to win this.
6. Authoritarian: First up coming off a Moe Cup winning prep. Clearly better over further than this.
7. Lord Durante: Solid win last prep over 2040m to break the duck. Two runs this prep fairly beaten over 1200m and 1400m. Needs a few more runs.
8. Nordic Flight: German import. Best runs were over further. Showed nothing last prep.
9. Pemberley: Two lead in runs for this talented stayer. Best runs in the past clearly over 2000m+ but does go okay over 1600m.
10. Manageress: Three runs this prep have all been terrible. Hard to suggest on current form even with freshen-up.
11. The Chairman: Interesting type. Went throught he grades last prep and obviously measured up. Quiet trial as lead in. This is his distance.. is he going well enough?
12. Tick Tick Bloom: WA Horse. March 2015 won the Bunbury Cup and hasn’t won since. Found nothing last prep and Weir is expected to turn this form around. Just to be fair, the first up run 2L 8th was good, but it ran horrible every run since. May just have something to prove here.
13. Ormito: Germany import having competed in the UK most of it’s life. G1 7th on record over 2000m. Placed in G3 company beaten 7L and placed 3rd behind a talented type in Prize Money. G3 2nd to Kings Fete also not bad at all. Best is over further.
14. By The Grace: Three runs this prep and has been horrible at best on all three occasions. Wants it wet.
15. Hornet’s Nest: Got a Heavy 8 win last prep at the bool over some good types. First up found nothing over an unsuitable distance and really wants further.
16. Plot The Course: Decent horse at his best. Two runs this prep.. first was average but last start over this distance wasn’t bad at Bendigo when made up some nice ground in the Golden Mile without going close. Has to improve again.
17. Sadaqa: Hasn’t won in yonks and that shouldn’t change today. Two back run was good but last start fairly beaten again.
18. Shards: Unlikely to get a run and even more unlikely to win if did so based on last prep form.
19. Curragh: Strong win at Ballarat as a lead in to this but this is a massive jump in class and i’d struggle to suggest the place based on the progression needed again. Does have ability though.
20. Pay Up Bro: Hard horse to catch. Strong run 3rd two back and then fairly beaten last start in a good race behind Top Me Up.
Comments: Another wide open race to finish the day. Pemberley looks the overs in the race while Nevis and Great Esteem are the winners at odds to watch on speed.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 9, 11, 13, 16
Strategy: Back both Nevis and Great Esteem.
