Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 14 October 2017. Racing returns to Caulfield this weekend with an absolutely stacked card of 10 races on offer while The Everest is being run at the same time up north in Sydney. Expecting the track to play fair to slightly on pace and it will really come down to those with the best runs getting the wins. Looking forward to covering all the action from the track. I’ll be very clear. This is the most confident betting card of the year for me. I’m betting more units than I have at any other meeting all year and betting into more races than any previous meeting. I feel the edge is strong and i’m betting up today. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Tom Melbourne – 3.5 units Each-Way @ $8.00/$2.80
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Legless Veuve – 6 units @ $3.40 to win. Overstep – 1.5 units @ $14.00 to win
Best Value
Caulfield Race 10 – Illustrious Lad – 1 unit Each-Way @ Betfair SP
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 5 – Religify – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.00/$2.20
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 6 – Alizee – 4.25 units @ $2.25 to win. Mintha – 0.75 units @ $15 to win
Caulfield Race 7 – Hartnell – 3 units @ $3.40 to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – Aloft – 2 units @ $4.20 to win. Wall of Fire – 1.25 units @ $9.00 to win
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 5, 6, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 9, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1000m – Inglis Debutant Stakes
Several unseen runners here and only trial form to go off with the rest of them.
The Stokes runner Coronel has to be respected off the strong trial while Encryption is very well bred for the Godolphin operation. Hayes and McEvoy dominated the early 2YO ranks last year so similar could be expected this year. Zahra jumps off Speedy Kitty from the trials and takes the ride on Grand Challenge which is a good enough lead for me.
Comments: Late market moves very important for this market.
Confidence 1%
Strategy: Grand Challenge E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – G3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes
1. Invincible Star: G3 Flemington winner nearly 1 year ago. 6th in the Magic Millions Classic the next prep. First up wasn’t really backed hard this Waterhouse runner and was 2L back 3-wide the trip but didn’t show much. Can improve here but has to improve.
2. Split Lip: Strong 2nd two back at Flemington in a questionable form race and then last start got back to last and ran on solidly behind Houtzen and others but still beaten 3L. Get back run on type.
3. Jorda: Good listed win last prep and then came back this prep with a very strong 3rd behind Chauffeur and Pariah. Failed to fire last start down the Flemington straight when the team were not confident at all in a race run well bellow benchmark of the previous start but the horse didn’t finish off at all going almost a second slower final 400m after going slower the first 600m. Can improve significantly and go close here. Maps for a sweet run.
4. Undoubtable Miss: Beaten a long way last start when didn’t find much at all at Caulfield coming off two previous average runs. Last prep Won an average MM at Morphetville. Not here.
5. Wanted Diva: Galloped on last start at Moonee Valley when loomed up running wide but ultimately failing. Previous prep looked an okay type. Has to improve loads.
7. Je Suis Tycoon: Every chance first up at Mornington but they absolutely crawled around and he wasn’t suited. Best run in the past not good enough here.
8. Luqyaa: Hayes runner that ran well first up at Flemington when held up for runs. Last prep looked a nice type but did get beaten fairly by Split Lip. Not convinced.
9. True Excelsior: Continues to run well without winning this prep and i’m a keen fan of the Houtzen form from last start. Over-race the previous start and led when not suited the run prior. Maps forward from a great barrier. Got to respect. Has the ability.
10. Counterplay: They crawled along last start when she sat wide no cover and was layed in on in the straight late but still ran well. Previous form was good but she clearly needs to find lengths here on what is expected.
12. From the Clouds: Two wins from the last 4 starts but those have been in significantly lower grades of races than this. Ran okay enough last start from out back but this is a massive step up again.
13. Josephine Sea: Had a light first prep but recorded a very good rating when 3rd behind Cliff’s Edge and Josephine Sea at Sandown in a race that was run along solidly like this will be today. If she has improved onwards and 100% ready to fire here, she will be in this.
14. Beerzatbernz: Lightly raced type that won a 2YO race at Morphetville and didn’t measure up in G3 company. 210 days between runs. Obviously need to have gone to a new level.
15. Divine Messenger: First up couldn’t win a maiden but then went to a low grade 3YF race at Flemington and got the win over some average types. Looks enough of a platform to go well here.
16. The Queen’s Reward: Ran well behind Divine Messenger last start but has to improve onwards and upwards again just like Divine Messenger. Maps out the back.
17. Extreme Bliss: Emergency today. Well beaten behind Divine and The Queen’s last start. Not for me.
18. Rewarding Laughter: Well beaten behind Divine and The Queen’s last start. Not for me.
Comments: True Excelsior comes off a top class run behind Houtzen that i’m expecting to be a form line that holds up throughout the weekend. Josephine Sea looks the horse with improvement potential today first up and is worth a watch from the yard while Jorda is clearly the horse with the best run on the record and maps super well.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Jorda and True Excelsior.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – G3 Cape Grim Steaks
1. Legless Veuve: Held up for runs last start at course and distance when flew home and just missed in a super hot run race. Most importantly, this horse can position in a very handy on speed position today and no matter if they go near benchmark or lengths above, this horse has the turn of foot to win.
2. Miss Gunpowder: Goes best first up with a solid win first up last prep from midfield but that was BM-90 grade. Went on to run a respectable 2nd in G3 company behind Fuhryk and then won in listed grade at Doomben. Has to be respected here but certainly looks a step below the top class runners so has been placed here.
3. Desert Lashes: Won 8 from 9 races coming from the Alice Springs to Adelaide. Led them around last start at Morphetville and was run down late by Lope De Capio. Ran well below very best first up so expect further improvement today. She suffered a hamstring injury ending last prep and was underdone first up.
4. Cool Passion: Hit some top levels two preps back but three runs since hasn’t gone close to that level. Hard to have.
5. Chiavari: Paraded brilliantly last start at Caulfield and ran home very well in a much easier race than this. Up in weight and has to improve.
7. Overstep: Got a sit and sprint tempo last prep at Flemington and produced a career peak run.. but failed to back that up the next start before producing a run good enough to beat a only average class of animal the next start. Race will be run to suit. Inconsistent type.
8. Pedrena: Goes well first up. Best runs in the past have been over further but she is 2 from 2 here. Not one I want over 1200m though.
9. Princess of Queens: Didn’t look great in the yard last start at Caulfield and then 3-wide the trip no cover and still ran a strong race. Back to 1200m not ideal for mine but clearly she is going well.
10. Leotie: Will be out at the rear. Four runs last prep well below what is needed. Take on.
11. Run Gypsy Run: Won last prep first up at course and distance and then failed to fire the next two starts. Was a low grade race win.
Comments: Legless Veuve looks very well suited here today and hard to beat. Maps perfectly in a race that will suit. Overstep is the blowout chance with a turn of foot that is hard to ignore.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Legless Veuve – 6 units @ $3.40. Overstep – 1.5 units @ $14.00
Caulfield Race 4 – 2400m – G2 Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes
1. Wall of Fire: Last start run 116+ Timeform rating 2nd behind Defoe beating home Frontiersman. Previously ran a 114+ on a Good track so wasn’t a fluke that run. Really should have won that last race. Steps back to 2400m but no issues at all and will love this distance. Looks a huge chance here and should be respected.
2. Boom Time: Ran well first up this prep before failing at MV and then running a strong 3rd at Moonee Valley even though never looking a chance. Doesn’t have a turn of foot at all but has the ability to stay on even with tough brutal early tempos. Well suited to run well today.
3. Foundry: G1 Metrop winner last start running a near career peak in a race that wasn’t run overly strong out the front but has enough pace on to make it a testing run and the 50.5kg had the horse well enough in. This is a tougher ask for mine back up in the weights but hard to ignore last run.
5. Aloft: Smashing lead in run that is hard to ignore 3rd behind Almandin in the JRA Trophy. Was a big step up from the previous runs and clearly a career peak run. Going better than ever.
6. Annus Mirabilis: Tough stayer who ran 4th in the Sydney Cup last prep on the heavy track. Can handle speed on but two runs this prep horrible. Take on.
7. Kidmenever: Timeform rated 111+ and well below this class in comparison to the other international in the race. For mine, his best runs have been 2000m not 2400m and he has never won first up in the past so I can’t understand the price.
8. Gallic Chieftain: Continues to run well this prep and is going through the grades. One run last prep over 2400m for a Sydney win. Best is clearly still below this to date but can improve.
9. Harlow Gold: Out the back and ran on well in what was a hot run Naturlism. The run is better than it looks only beaten 2.75L by 2nd in the race and it rated highly. From barrier 1 expect to position further forward today in a race likely to be run with similar pressure overall. Weighted well enough.
10. Fanatic: Couldn’t get close in the Benalla Cup. Struggle to suggest here.
11. Lord Fandango: Comes into this out of a really low grade country cup race where they didn’t rate well at all. Down in weights but hard to have.
Comments: Only two horses i’m even willing to consider here so i’m very keen to get stuck in and bet. Aloft is the clear standout and will be pushing forward to get a sit behind Gallante throughout the race and can push on from a long way out if he wants to. Wall of Fire is the huge ‘unknown’ in the race and brings in form lines that will measure up in a Caulfield Cup and is well over the odds. Very keen to take on Kidmenever who is well under the odds here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Aloft – 2 units @ $4.20 to win. Wall of Fire – 1.25 units @ $9.00 to win.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – Keno Weekend Hussler Stakes
1. Lucky Hussler: Looked to hit the line strongly first up then last start in the Rupert Clarke just struggled to the line. Clearly has the best form of any horse in this race but he didn’t place last prep and has been well off both runs this prep. Hard to suggest but if money comes watch!
2. Religify: Finished off last prep with a career peak run leading them around over 1600m at a very strong 6L above benchmark and still managed to match only 1L below benchmark late to back up a similar run prior. Run at Gold Coast as equally as impressive as well over 1400m. Clearly the one to beat on last prep form if can produce anywhere near close to those figures today.
3. Dibayani: Comes out of a hotly contested Listed race at Flemington where they didn’t run it along too fast at all. Hates Caulfield and i’d struggle to suggest here.
5. Duke of Brunswick: Wide gate and maps to need luck to get in from this 1400m start. Comes out of a slowly run 1400m and off a fail before that. Best runs in the past are good enough to be a factor here but has to improve.
7. Mighty Like: Ran a strong time three back at Flemington when 5th in a highly rating race on a day the track was very fast. Outside of that run he really has not been close to his best the past 10 runs. Take on.
8. Attention: Ran some strong races last prep when 4th in the GC Guineas behind Savanna Amour before beaten 3.2L 8th behind Deploy. Two runs this prep well beaten on both occasions and while this is a step back in class, he isn’t going well enough to suggest anything but a place. Does map on speed.
9. Fastnet Tempest: 106 Timeform Rated runner that has failed to go close to that in 3 runs since May peaks. Maps well for a good run.
10. Oregon’s Day: EIPH and Mucus last start and nearly a month between runs to get over it. Won two back at course and distance in only average ratings due to a slow early speed but she produced devastating late splits.
11. Coldstone: First up today after a very strong last prep in much easier company. Not up to this grade just yet.
12. Mubakkir: Wide no cover and bumped and mucus first up on what was clearly a forgivable run first up. Up to 1400m more ideal and on previous preps ran 2nd in similar grade to Hellova Street at Flemington in a slick time. Maps on speed and the faster they go the better his chances.
13. Mongolian Wolf: Looked super ready to go in the yard last start and was scratched at barriers. Has the lowest personal best run in the past so very questionable form lines.
14. Orient Line: Nice type and finished off solidly last start at Moonee Valley but i’d struggle to see him winning here.
Comments: Religify is the standout here. If he is fit then I can’t see any other horses here today fully testing his ability. Attention looks well under the odds and so does Oregon’s Day. Fastnet Tempest the watch of the internationals while Duke of Brunswick is the Aussie improver and Lucky Hussler the market move watch.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Religify 1.5 units E/W @ $5.00/$2.20
Caulfield Race 6 – 1600m – G1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas
1. Shoals: Shoals has won 4 from 5 this prep with only a 0.4L defeat last start by Booker after covering a load of extra ground and giving Booker 2.5kg on the day. Maps for the ideal 1 out 1 back position today and will be very hard to hold out.
2. Alizee: The class runner of the field having won the G1 Flight Stakes up in Sydney by 2.3L in a brutally fast run race. Has lightning sectionals and has a closing speed like no other. Respect.
3. Booker: Stole the race last start at Caulfield by sitting off the leader last start at Caulfield getting away with some cheap sectionals and coming home in only fair final 600m time saving ground and finding the line first. Step up to 1600m fine but not convinced she is this level.
4. Pure Scot: Found not room last start behind Bring Me Roses at Flemingtin in the G2 Edward Manifold and likely would have tested Bring Me Roses, if not run second. Will sit out the back here but will find a more suitable tempo on offer. Has to improve.
5. Aloisia: The X factor in this race today who is being completely under-rated in the race. Returned first up with no luck getting well back over 1400m with a poor ride from Michael Dee given no chance and looked to have a lot to give. Last prep ran 2nd in G1 company behind Captain Gain at Doomben over 1600m. Need to improve here from the first up run but clearly can go well.
6. Leather’n’lace: They led them around at a steady tempo last start at Flemington and she found a good spot one out one back. Hit hte lead 250m to go but peaked and failed to finish off. May not be suited 1600m for mine and this is a step up again in class.
7. Mintha: G3 2nd behind Houtzen last start over 1200m and takes the step up to 1600m which is a big unknown. I think she is really well placed here today and from the sectionals run last start and if ridden for a strong position 1 out 2 back, she looks to have the ability to contest.
8. She’s So High: Fairly beaten on all three occasions this prep but she has been catching my eye. Was well backed into single figures last start and found a few too good. Poorly weighted here compared to Shoals and maps to get back in run.
Comments: Alizee has proven to be the horse to beat here on past performances including the huge Group 1 win last start. Barrier 2 isn’t ideal at all but you can expect Glyn to attempt at all costs to stay 1 off to find the filly clear running. Shoals is the main danger on paper while Booker has to be taken on. The significant improver coming out of a 1L 2nd to Houtzen with some impressive sectionals is Mintha. Breeding suggests no issues with this distance and the McEvoy stable have the stock to steal a race like this from under punters noses. Happy to back both Mintha and Alizee for a good result.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Alizee – 4.25 units @ $2.25. Mintha – 0.75 units @ $15.
Caulfield Race 7 – 2000m – G1 Ladbrokes Stakes
1. Hartnell: Solid run last start when went back and ran on well with speed on out front. Has a significant turn of foot and if the speed is genuine enough maps to get the perfect spot in run today compared to last start and is drifting to a very backable price.
2. Gailo Chop: 511 day break due to injury and four runs back have been impressing. Struck on well last start off a hot tempo but has to improve again to get the win.
3. Johanners Vermeer: 120 Timeform Flat rating has this horse a serious contender today and in the Spring. Group 3 winner last prep and best runs have all been on dry tracks. Didn’t run poorly in G1 class but was a step below best. Never won first up.
4. Riven Light: 111P Timeform rating heading into this and has never really been tested outside of Handicap/Stakes/Listed grades. Last two wins on Soft and Heavy. Big step up in grade today but at the right distances.
5. Calderon: Known as Steel Of Madrid when overseas, he announced himself with a G3 win at Newmarket in 118 timeform rating on a good to firm track back in April. Has run a 117 since before spelling. Certainly a nice type of horse and will get a good spot most likely 2 back the rails if jumps well (can jump poorly).
6. Jon Snow: Got a win last start at Moonee Valley in a fairly low graded JRA Cup. This is a big step up again staying at a dry track and this distance. One I want to take on.
7. Inference: Two runs back this prep have been career PBs with improvement shown last start. Distance is suitable but maps to get back in running and will need a load of luck and improvement again.
8. Single Gaze: This horse has always produced it’s best runs off a strong early tempo and has measured up quite well the past two starts in this grade of race. Looks a place chance again.
9. Abbey Marie: Pushed Bonneval to the line two back and then finished alongside Amelie’s Star in a race where they got back and couldn’t win from the position but ran well. Was a very high rating race and if they can swoop here today this is a horse to look out for late.
10. The Taj Mahal: Has recorded 117 Timeform rating three times in the past and run 1.5L 4th as best result in a G1. Looks a step below these on class but could place easily.
11. Bonneval: Awkward map today but from the barrier you have to believe they go back with Abbey Marie. The only other option is to try and push over with Hartnell early and hope the likes of Riven Light or Johannes Vermerr don’t kick up. Got the dream run and won well last start with the tempo on. Was a career peak run but certainly does have improvement from the yard also.
Comments: Don’t expect the speed to be lightning fast today if Jon Snow is left to an uncontested lead like last start. Expecting this to be a race set up for the best positioned horse with the best turn of foot over 600m.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 11
Strategy: Hartnell – 3 units @ $3.40 to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1600m – G1 Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas
1. The Mission: Front runner that loves to push a tempo and just can’t be controlled. Last start 6th behind Showtime shows enough to me that he just isn’t good enough for this. Happy to take on.
3. Azazel: Not been up to the top level this whole prep and even the first up win wasn’t great. Going back and doesn’t look good enough.
4. Sircconi: Knuckled badly last start at Flemington when kept on solidly for third and can improve from that run. Quick turn around here a potential issue. Untested over this distance and in a race of this tempo.
5. Showtime: Broke the clock early last start at Moonee Valley over 1600m 16L above benchmark first 600m similar to the previous start at Flemington. Last two starts has finished the race with 10L above benchmark and 12 lengths above benchmark suggesting he is more than just a second-rater here and is the real deal and has to be respected from on speed. While he should lead them around, there would be no issues with him taking a sit behind the hot tempo either.
6. Royal Symphony: Suffered his first loss last start in a race that was run 5 lengths below benchmark first 600m and just didn’t suit him. Previous two races saw 8.4 and 13 lengths above benchmark in the first instances which saw him finish off strongly and record some amazing results above benchmark. Looks perfectly suited here with the three on speed horses all expected to push a 10+ length above benchmark speed the first 600m. Will be out the back and ready to run on top of the straight when others are failing to stay on.
7. Gold Standard: Respectable Sydney form lines with a G2 win in the Stan Fox two back and two runs between that 2nd in G3 and 4th in G1s. His one win was leading them around over 1500m at a benchmark below the required here. Nice type but others preferred for the win.
8. Perast: Went around well backed last start in the Guineas Prelude at double figure odds but won very well on the day. Came in off a tough run in the Golden Rose 14 lengths above benchmark early and then only went 1L above benchmark early last start which was the difference. A very solid type of horse but this is a big ask.
9. Sanctioned: Godolphin runner that has had 4 runs this prep but failed to get a win so far. Has been always there or there abouts this prep with just 2.5L or less away from the winners. Two back ran 2nd to Ace High who has gone on and won a G1. 2000m back to 1600m today. Maps to get back and run on and can handle pressure on. Good enough to win this though?
10. Al Passem: Hasn’t in the past shown anywhere near enough class to be winning this. One to clearly take on.
11. Kementari: Has been backed to win this today. Has never run beyond 1400m in the past and has never run a race above benchmark early so is untested at the speed required to win this. A nice type but has to improve. Did look to be wanting further on last start run but has every possible chance.
13. Salsamor: Sat off them in the Showtime race at Moonee Valley last start and ran home well to record a strong overall rating that will improve onwards to run well here. Can go well.
14. Levendi: Fairly beaten from last in the Prelude. Not one i’d be considering here.
15. Holy Snow: Price runner that stuck on with Salsamor behind Showtime and pulled up lame and with EIPH. Get back run on type but can’t have off lameness issues and eiph.
16. Catchy: A hard horse to place with the tempo expected in this race today stepping up to 1600m for the first time ever. Has recorded ratings and times strong enough to be able to measure up here but there are still queries over her being able to stay the tempo and distance required here. From the barrier will get a suck run the fence.
17. Mighty Boss: Proved a step below Showtime and a few others out of that fast run race at Moonee Valley. Not for me.
Comments: Showtime, Royal Symphony and Catchy are the three horses of interest here. Any winner outside of that will need to improve onwards and upwards. While Sanctioned or Eclair Sunshine or even Kementari wouldn’t be a surprise, i’m happy to suggest they can’t win. At the prices available, i’m wanting to get involved on Showtime and Royal Symphony.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 5, 6, 16
Strategy: Backing both Royal Symphony and Showtime
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – G1 United Petroleum Toorak Handicap
1. Tosen Stardom: Has been running consistent ratings this prep and has been below the grade needed to win on both occasions. Maps awkwardly today and needs a gun ride to be winning this with improvement also.
2. Kaspersky: 116 timeform rating with similar runs around 114-115. Certainly a decent type on Ascot runs on firm tracks but certainly not a top liner and may just be meeting one here today.
3. Seaburge: Two runs this prep and both have been horrible. EIPH last start and nearly a month between runs. Maps out the back but even on very best runs from the past the horse has to improve here.
4. Tom Melbourne: Could be a moral today. Maps 1 out 1 back if Bossy rides him correctly as i’m expecting. Should have won the Epsom without finding trouble top of straight and from 1/1 shouldn’t find any here at Caulfield. Speed will be on to suit with two speedy horses on speed and Tommy can do it at both ends of the race. Love him here. 11.16 final 200m last start over 1600m.
5. He or She: Two runs this prep and been horrible. Take on.
6. I Am a Star: Got away with murder last start at Moonee Valley on speed and was allowed to set the right tempo and was just too good on the day. This is a BIG step up in class. Poor barrier.
7. Turnitaround: Clutching at straws going this far up in grade. Have to take on here.
8. Comin’ Through: Given no home in the Epsom wide the trip but certainly didn’t find much late. Beat Tommy two back over 1400m but worse off at the weights and Tommy has gone well past him in form. Good barrier should get death seat.
9. Egg Tart: Very best runs in the past have come at 2000m distance with speed on early. Will find speed on here and get the speed suited but query over missing a run leading into this.
10. Mr Sneaky: Nice type with a short sprint. Up to 1600m a query and needs to improve onwards to beat all these.
11. Omei Sword: Could just be a myth. Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close to the heights of last prep which were very high.
12. Snitzson: Gets the right race today with speed on. Was a nice 3rd behind Tommy in the Epsom but really hard to see him turning the tables.
14. Sovereign Nation: Too far back last start in the Rupert Clarke but hit the line solidly. Up to 1600m today but has to run a career peak and then some to win here.
15. Theanswermyfriend: Went to fast last start and suffered for it late still running a nice rating considering. Previous run was a career peak and more than enough to be competitive here. Should get an easier lead but has to handle the extra 200m.
16. Petrology: Always runs home well without winning the last few preps. This is a massive jump in grade and a horrible barrier. Not at the weights.
17. Jacquinot Bay: Hit the lead last start at course and similar distance in ran run solidly out front and he just kept on finding. Will do the same here and could run a cheeky place.
18. Wyndspelle: Type of horse that always finds the line well. They went too slow out front for him to be a late factor. Would prefer more speed today and probably gets it here. Queries in this class.
19. Mask of Time: 105 Timeform rated.French import with a Timeform rating below the very best in this. Never won on a Good surface but doesn’t run poorly and has started $4.20 in listed and $3.70 G2 grade in the past… but over further. Not for me.
Comments: Tom Melbourne finds the right race to prove he is a top class horse. Very keen at the price as he has lengths based on the Epsom run on this field. Only an improver and bad luck stops us here. Super keen. #SITDOWNBOSSY
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 9, 15
Strategy: Tom Melbourne – 3.5 units Each-Way @ $8.00/$2.80
Caulfield Race 10 – 1100m – G2 Keno Kwikpik Schillaci Stakes
1. Lankan Rupee: Returned from injury well first up with a 2nd on heavy behind Ability in the Bletchingly before failing next start in the Spring Stakes as $1.95 favourite at Morphetville. Looked to be returning to form last prep on the dryer tracks and has to be respected here.
2. Rock Magic: Strong first up run over the 1000m at Moonee Valley when had to work hard early to grab a more forward position than expected and hit the lead with 200m to go before others came over the top late. Can improve significantly for the run and is better suited over the 1100m.
3. Ball of Muscle: Wide barrier and will push forward to lead with Sheidel. Respectable run two back behind Redzel off an only average early tempo while last start a bit faster out didn’t suit as well as had hoped.
4. First Among Equals: WA runner come over for a chance to take on the top class of the sprinters now with Weiry. Vega Magic and Rock Magic always had his number at home.
5. Illustrious Lad: Failed to fire last prep coming off a 1200m and 1300m run the prep before that would rival a Group 1 class race. Wasn’t an exceptional trial leading in but clearly has the top level ability on the board.
6. Hellbent: Two runs this prep and both have been reasonable without impressing. Best run in the past was course and distance and would be good enough to rival these.
7. Le Cordon Bleu: Two trials leading in. Well below this grade of race. No.
8. I Thought So: First time down this way. Last two runs found Isorich better on the day in easier grades of races. Not up to this.
9. Sheidel: Ran them along last start at Moonee Valley with a very strong tempo and stuck on without lighting the world on fire. Previous start at Caulfield simply didn’t finish off. Far from best this prep.
11. Super Cash: G2 winner at course and distance first up last prep beating I Am a Star and Chautauqua. Has to improve.
Comments: This is certainly a wide open race to end the day. The amount I bet here on track is going to be determined by how the horse looks on the day. I’m keen on Illustrious Lad to be fresh and ready to run to his top here in this very open race. I’m expecting a larger price on the day against this lot and I doubt money will come for him. For this reason, I’ll take the Betfair SP price. If you follow Dickos Mail, if he finds this horse in the top two, i’ll be increasing my bet size.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 9
Strategy: Illustrious Lad – 1 unit Each-Way @ Betfair SP
