Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 12 May 2018. A strong day’s racing is ahead of us and we take a look at the full 9-race card for the day. The weather conditions look to be suitable with low winds and a lack of rain about for the day, expect every horse to get their chance. I will be moving my racing information in a few weeks time over to www.themailbag.com.au so please feel free to start reading the previews there from now on.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1100m – Ladbrokes Back Yourself Plate – 2YO
1. Rock Hard: Two runs on lead in and hasn’t run significantly positive time yet. Looks to have some ability obviously winning 2 from 2, but this looks harder again.
2. Skeptical Lad: Big drifter first up in slightly harder race and ran okay without figuring. Can improve?
3. Tank Attack: Out of same race as Skeptical Lad. Held up for runs but didn’t show much when got room… may want furhter? Trialled well on lead in.
4. Celestial King: Won lead in trial. Nolen onboard. Stable going well with youngsters?
5. So Magnifique: Looked a nice type at the Trials. Magnus + Colt = no from me.
6. That Song: No public trials. Stable always produce strong types as 2YOs. Respect. Mudda?
7. Afrikaans: Unseen horse. No public trials – Cranbourne jumpouts?
8. Franula: Unseen horse. No public trials – Jumpouts at Cranbourne/Mornington?
9. Trunfio: Stable due a nice 2YO type and like to debut them heading towards nice 3YO races. No public trial but well bred. Respect on breeding and price.
Top Chances: Trunfio
High Chances: That Song, Celestial King
Medium Chances: Rock Hard, Skeptical Lad, So Magnifique
Low Chances: Tank Attack
Very Low Chances: Franula, Afrikaans
Expected Speed: Unknown
Comments: Many unknowns in this race. What I do know is I can’t get Rock Hard as short as $2.70 against the unknowns here. Very much a yard race. Gone with Trunfio based on Stable, Breeding, Market + Info sources. Think we just have to respect the Hayes first starter in That Song while Celestial King showed a bit of talent at the trials.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Le Pine Funerals Handicap – Mares
1. Sullivan Bay: On speed runner. Failed to finish off last start at Flemington down the straight. Back to around a turn ideal. Two and three back runs from on speed were solid. Stays at Mares grade. Has won twice on Soft previously. Unproven on Heavy.
2. Hear the Chant: Blinkers off. Finished last the past two runs and has been well below very best. Normally can sustain a strong pace early… but best is seen finishing strongly over the top of them. Showed this first up and you just can’t dismiss if this horse is found near top in yard. Perfect map. Soft track winner only run. Heavy placed in past.
3. Divine Chills: Went around at the bool last week and was no where near top in yard and ran accordingly. Best in the past has seen a Sandown BM-70 win and open class 0.1L 2nd at course and distance. Respect if at top in yard. Heavy and Soft track winner.
4. Selenia: Ran quite well two back at course and distance only beaten 2.5L in similar company. Last start down in class was really disappointing down the straight. At best can match up. Unplaced both runs on Soft.
5. Another Diamond: Blinkers off. Horse shown best in country grade or at tracks like Moonee Valley in easier than this. Not off last few runs. 4 wins on Soft in past but unplaced only run Heavy.
6. Run Gypsy Run: First up today and really short in betting. Won 2 of 3 runs first up in the past. Last prep failed only run. First up two preps back run would win here but next 3 runs wouldn’t go close. 1 run on Heavy for 1 win.
7. World of Hope: First up here and has run well consistently in the past first up. Ended last prep witha 955m win so query distance to find very best? Also query class level first up. Best run from last prep would go well enough to be considered. Multiple soft track winner. Placed on heavy in past.
8. Keep Counting: Been up a long time. Won twice this prep in easier grades. Two back run at Sandown didn’t beat a lot to be honest in a low grade race. Fairly beaten last start at Caulfield but did show some ability from too far back. Wouldn’t be shocked to see improvement here but needs to go to new lengths to win. Unplaced on Heavy. 4 runs 0 wins on soft.
9. Jocasta: Has a history of missing the start and getting to unwinnable positions. Ran very well last start and this looks a little easier to my eye. Best with right run goes okay here. 1 run 0 places on heavy.
10. Winspot: Failed to deliver the times required to measure up here from past runs. Four lead in runs beaten fairly in easier. No wet track form.
11. Monkey Magic: Fourth up. BM-64 jump to Mares grade and didn’t win last start. Never run times.
Top Chances: Hear The Chant
High Chances: Divine Chills, World of Hope, Run Gypsy Run
Medium Chances: Sullivan Bay, Jocasta
Low Chances: Keep Counting, Another Diamond, Selenia, Winspot
Very Low Chances: Monkey Magic
Expected Speed: Sullivan Bay to lead them around. Don’t expect Corey Parish to want to push the tempo here. Could go 2-3L below benchmark all the way up to 2L above.
Comments: This is the ultimate yard race. Hear The Chant, Divine Chills and World of Hope are all horses I want to find from the yard at their complete top. This looks a race that will be a sit and sprint and on past runs Run Gypsy Run doesn’t have the turn of foot required if that is the case. I can’t understand the money for Monkey Magic here and just have to lose on it.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – Tile Importer Handicap
1. Amovatio: Quick turnaround after a strong third in similar grade at Flemington. Ran some very strong closing speed as always. Horse is going well. From barrier could settle slightly closer? No inside run from there! Best seen in past on dryer but has won on soft once.
2. He or She: Horse hasn’t produced a strong group class run since a Group 3 win more than a year ago. First up wasn’t bad at all off a slow tempo over 1400m. Steps up to right distance here. Best seen on dryer.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Handles all surface conditions. Ran a blinder from on speed last start at Flemington over slightly further when got away with murder running along out front and ran into a very nice type who has won since. 20 runs 0 wins at track.
4. Snoano: Went around big odds first up over 1400m. based on form from the UK looking for further being a 2000m Ascot winner. Ran very very well first up. Handles wet conditions. Right stable.
5. Kenjorwood: Goes okay enough on wet. Strong 4th with big weight at the bool on lead in and Moor takes ride. Weir has this horse ready to go?
6. Bel Burgess: Blinkers on. On speed type. Best runs deeper into preps and from this run onwards will improve. Last two runs very poor.
7. Riyadh: Trialled between runs as horse ran significantly poorer than expected last start failing to finish off. Better than that run and 3kg claimer on is ideal here. Forgive last start. Handles all track conditions.
8. Dylanson: Horrible the two lead in runs. Ran very well course and distance four back for 4th. Best seen on dryer.
9. My Paisann: Yet to win on wet tracks. CLose 2nd last start in very good strong time off a hot pace. May not find that here?
Top Chances: Snoano, Riyadh
High Chances: Amovatio, My Paisann
Medium Chances: He or She, Kenjorwood, Jacquinot Bay
Low Chances: Bel Burgess
Very Low Chances: Dylanson
Expected Speed: Bel Burgess and Dylanson will be looking to push the tempo on speed and we can expected 2L to 5L above benchmark early on.
Comments: An interesting race that looks setup to allow the cream to rise to the top. Amovatio and My Paisann come into the race off the superior lead in runs, but this is a strong field filled with classy animals. Snoano looks the type for this on form back home as well as first up showing. Hard to have a lot of confidence here. Riyadh looks the clear value in the race.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1440m – Rod Fenwick Handicap – Fillies BM-78
2. Light Romance: BM-70 winner in strong times to win last prep. First up too far back and in a race not run strongly enough out front. Best when strong speed on throughout.
3. Miss Vixen: Nice enough time. Huge data last start in harder coming off an open grade win. Well back in class here and if they can run on here she is very hard to hold out.
4. Miss Belisa: Never run close to the times or data requirements needed to measure up here. Very keen to take this horse on.
5. Platinum Angel: Nice enough type running very consistently strong times all prep. Has to potentially go to a new level here? Awkward barrier.
6. Honey Esprit: Strong dominating win at the Bool by 4.3L coming back from Open grade at course and distance the previous start. Didn’t smash the clock by any measure last start. Previous run did measure up. Looks a decent type, go forward from wide barrier.
7. Tuskar Brook: Won three of last 4 going through the grades and steps back up to 1400m here. Has to improve again on last few runs to measure up here.
8. Moet Rose: Fourth up this prep and really measured up to the quality 3YO races two and three back. Failed last start at Flemington – just have to ignore. Best good enough.
10. Mahlani: Nice enough type. Two runs this prep solid and step up to 1400m should suit. Query if the horse is going well enough this prep to measure up here.
11. La Tesora: 3L winner in a maiden on lead in. Didn’t have to run times. On speed type here but massive jump in class.
12. Absolute Heaven: 3L maiden winner last start at Geelong. Led them around at a crawl and didn’t get home overly strong. Big jump here.
13. Quietly Angry: Couldn’t get close in a Class one. No.
14. Behave: Maiden winner three back. Two back wasn’t a bad run but failed to fire in harder company last start. Hard to have.
15. Faith in Hand: Maiden winner two back. Not the worst runner at Caulfield when held up for runs. Can improve.
Top Chances: Miss Vixen
High Chances: Honey Esprit, Moet Rose
Medium Chances: Light Romance, Platinum Angel, Mahlani, Faith in Hand
Low Chances: Tuskar Brook, La Tesora, Behave
Very Low Chances: Miss Belisa, Absolute Heaven, Quietly Angry
Expected Speed: Real query over speed in this race. 3 expected leaders all ran well below benchmark first 600m last start. They will fight for it but we could see 4L below benchmark up to 2L above.
Comments: A few nice types here but clear standout is Miss Vixen as long as they can run on here. Moet Rose looks big odds as well while the favourite Honey Esprit will get it run to suit on speed and be hard to get past.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1440m – Heritage Finance Handicap – BM-78
1. Curragh: First up here and won voer this distance in similar grade two preps back first up. Has trialled on way in just like 2 preps back when won first up. Won 3 from 4 on soft in the past. Ideal.
3. Silvera: Won a trial on lead in. First up here. First up last prep won over 1400m. Won 2 from 5 on soft tracks. Goes well in this grade. 3kg claim key. Maps back from barrier.
4. Wayanka: Four runs this prep. 1 from 5 on soft in the past. Horse hasn’t gone close to best from last prep yet. Maps back.
5. Castelo: Ran home well last start at course and distance in similar grade. Goes well enough on soft tracks. Going well – maps awkward – wide?
6. Dan Zephyr: Nice enough run last start but clearly not going anywhere near best from the past. Have to take on once again.
7. Lord Topper: Solid lead in run at Morphetville in similar type of grade. Likely leader in race. Horrible on wet.
8. Maximus: Well backed favourite last start at Flemington and had every chance from on speed in similar grade and just didn’t finish off down the straight as well as had shown in the past. Ideal spot in run here.
9. Kentucky Breeze: Super disappointing this prep. Moor goes onboard. Hard to suggest unless money comes for the horse and top from yard.
11. Fudged: Solid first up in harder company 3.5L behind French Emotion. Best in past can go okay here with right run from barrier 3. Query on soft.
12. Overstep: Return to form first up when ran very well over 1200m first up behind Milwaukee. Has won on soft previously. Can get forward enough from good barrier and Melham onboard. Big chance.
13. Jaws of Steel: Bool winner last start in much easier when well backed. Was very solid home late. Up to 1400m ideal.
15. Raja Ampat: Two runs this prep very average. Hard to suggest on current form.
Top Chances: Curragh, Overstep
High Chances: Maximus, Jaws of Steel,
Medium Chances: Castelo, Silvera, Fudged
Low Chances: Lord Topper, Dan Zephyr, Kentucky Breeze
Very Low Chances: Wayanka, Raja Ampat
Expected Speed: Query over on-speed tempo with Lord Topper and Dan Zephyr expected to take it up. 3L below benchmark up to 3L above benchmark expected.
Comments: Curragh won a similar race last prep first up and is 3 from 5 on soft – ticks boxes. Maximus and Jaws of Steel map for ideal runs and are obvious chances outside of Curragh. Overstep will run a very bold race from out back and has the ability to run them down late.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – The Sheen Panel Service Handicap – 3YO Handicap
1. Bel Sonic: Strong type best seen over 1200m. Had a good layup betwene preps. In right field here and has strong closing speed. Handleds soft tracks.
2. Vainstream: Improved significantly last start at Caulfield recording a sensational data rating doing it strong early and late in the race. Horse is flying and if re-produces that run from barrier 4 will be very hard to hold out. Maps ideal. Trialled well on wet in past.
3. Sun Quan: Massive improvement shown last start to just miss at course and distance. Maps ideal again from a good barrier – stable is flying. Should handle soft.
4. Written Choice: Led them around strongly last start in easier grade and then put them away faster than last weeks pay. Wide barrier means he can’t be slow away today which is a BIG query. Likes wet tracks.
5. Wassergeist: Class 1 winn last start at Pakenham. Previous prep measured up over further in listed grade. Needs further for this grade?
6. Raspberry Rose: Two starts two wins this prep. Solid type of horse and has natural improvement to come.
7. Boom Chika Boom: Stable is flying but this horse hasn’t shown anything in the past to suggest to me that he can win this.
8. Golden Key: Solid 3-wide run last start at course and distance. Can stay in grade and run well here but needs to improve to win.
9. Lakhoni: BM-64 grade winner first up and then fairly beaten two back. Very deep last start and better gate here. Can naturally improve.
10. Forsure: Blinkers first time. 7th up this prep for the maiden winner. Well beaten the past two starts and was beaten 3.8L 2nd the other start. Has solid enough form but has to go to a new level.
14. Exceltara: Got back and ran on very well last start from an unwinnable position in running. Expect speed to be on here and with low weight we will see what he is made of.
15. Mr Storm: Well backed last start at Flemington and was well outclassed. Back to 1200m here but never recorded a strong enough run to suggest. D Oliver off B Park on. Negative.
Top Chances: Vainstream, Sun Quan
High Chances: Written Choice
Medium Chances: Bel Sonic, Raspberry Rose, Golden Key, Exceltara
Low Chances: Lakhoni, Wassergeist, Forsure, Mr Storm
Very Low Chances: Boom Chika Boom
Expected Speed: Boom Chikca Boom is expected to lead by a few good judges here but I find it hard to suggest based on the horses speed. Expecitng Sun Quan and Vainstream to run them around 4-7L above benchmark making it a true test.
Comments: Sun Quan and Vainstream come off peak runs and a repeat of those runs would have them both well in here. Vainstream could just be a step above all the other runners here and most importantly, both will handle the track. Written Choice is the best of the rest from an awkward barrier and has been slow out the past two starts… prefer from an inside barrier.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1100m – Darren Gauci Handicap – BM-84
1. Lord Durante: First up and last 5 first up runs has not placed. Horse needs further.
2. Murphy’s Reward: Ran a strong on-pace race two back at course and similar distance. Last start 4th at the Bool running a ripper. Nice enough at weights here from claim. Wouldn’t be shocked if they tried to lead.
3. Wise Hero: First up here. 2kg claim from Thornton ideal. Trialled sensationally on lead in. Goes well on wet. Goes well here and over this distance. Has won in Open class. This is a step below that.
4. Another Coldie: Ended last prep ovber 1600m. Best in past over further than this. Hard to suggest first up.
5. Onerous: Solid type that has run times in the past. Hasn’t won for a long while for good reason. Always runs well in this class. Best over 1400m?
6. Urban Ruler: First up today after half a year off. Goes well on soft tracks. Very best runs in the past measure up here. Best has always been seen over further than this.
7. Gibbon: Last three runs have all been in really slowly run races. Step up in class here and needs to run home strongly to measure up. Handles wet.
8. Inn Keeper: Two starts this prep for two VERY solid wins. Last start at the bool did everything right. Handles wet tracks. On speed runner. Well suited on the way up through the grades here.
9. Kirani: Trial on lead in only fair. Last prep did measure up in a brutally run race and just missed down the Flemington straight. Goes best at these distances – never placed at track the issue. Wins on soft though.
10. Sir Donald: Got home strongly last start at Flemington for 2nd behind Milwaukee. Strong solid times that stack up here. Query with position in run – will be hitting the line hard late.
11. Manolo Blahniq: Best runs last prep were off strong tempos and over 1400m. Can run well over 1200m as seen last prep. Goes well at Caulfield. Will need luck from positon in run to get out at right times. Don’t dismiss solely on spot in run.
12. Priceton Spirit: Big win last start at Sandown from on speed. Times and data very solid and stays at distance and low weight today. Choppy suited here.
13. What a Hoot: Never run required times to measure up here. Happy to take on even off the last start win.
Top Chances: Wise Hero
High Chances: Princeton Spirit, Inn Keeper,
Medium Chances: Manolo Blahniq, Murphy’s Reward, Urban Ruler
Low Chances: Kirani, Sir Donald, Another Coldie, Onerous
Very Low Chances: Lord Durante, What a Hoot
Expected Speed: Three to four on speed runners with Inn Keeper, Kirani, Murphy’s Reward and Princeton Spirit – Could find anywhere from Benchmark to 6L above benchmark speed in the race.
Comments: Wise Hero is suited perfectly from an ideal gate. Looks a great price if ready to go from yard. Princeton Spirit will also be on speed most likely leading them around and looks a very good type. Outside of that, Inn Keeper and Manolo Blahniq have to be considered.
Caulfield Race 8 – 2000m – Le Pine Funerals Handicap – 3YO Handicap
1. Mahamedeis: Big win at course over 1600m last start. Three back won at Flemington over 2000m. Recorded some very natural strong data figures. Respect.
2. Furrion: No doubts this is a good horse, and he wasn’t anywhere near fit last start when he won well at the Bool, but this is a BIG Jump in class and he just hasn’t recorded anywhere near the data figures required to win this race. From an inside barrier, will need a lot of luck. B Rawiller negative?
3. Lucky For All: Two starts this prep for two wins. Ran home well last start from out back in a slowly run race. Nice enough type and well bred but has to go to another level here.
4. Inspirante: 7th last start in a Group 3. Previous start 6L winner at the bool in a BM-58. Big jump back in grade from last start.
5. I’m Buxom: Respectable 2nd last start behind a nice type in Snogging. Up to 2000m here is a query on what I saw last start. Not the worst. Can place.
6. All Hard Wood: Continues to be backed in races. Beaten 5L by Think Bleue last start after being beaten in a Class 1. Respect enough back over 2000m.
7. Dixie Preacher: BM-58 winner last start. Massive jump in grade and form turn around required.
10. Under Oath: 3L trial winner over 1550m on lead in. Hasn’t run required times or ratings on lead in over any distance. Big jump in grade.
11. Kugelblitz: Two lead in trials. Never shown enough in the past to suggest a big improvement to win this. Does look to be a stayer though.
13. Boss Tweed: Respectable 5th behind Mahamedeis on lead in run. Got back ran on well – covered 4m in run more than winner. Better barrier here and very well weighted about 7k better off. BIG chance. Loved the way the horse hit the line last start after the tough effort. Looks ideal 2000m type.
14. Procedural: Never run times to suggest a place. Big take on.
15. Okotoks: Blinkers first time! From back in run, ran well behind Think Bleue last start. Up in distance again but NZ type and should go well.
16. Von Mystic: Bool winner in a maiden last start. Big jump in garde.
17. Slick Back: Moe maiden winner on lead in. Big class jump.
18. Casares: Not the worst runner two back and last start. Hard to suggest but better than a lot of these.
Top Chances: Boss Tweed
High Chances: Mahamedeis, Furrion
Medium Chances: Lucky For All, I’m Buxom, Okotoks
Low Chances: Inspirante, All Hard Wood, Von Mystic, Casares
Very Low Chances: Dixie Preacher, Under Oath, Kugelblitz, Procedural, Slick Back
Expected Speed: Large race, 4-5 types going forward here. Expect Benchmark to 4L above benchmark. Every chance a mid-race anchor drop.
Comments: I’m surprised and shocked by the price on offer for Boss Tweed with the low weight off a sensational last start run. The horse looks ideally suited here. Mahamedeis had the race run to suit last start and hard to see the same happening here – will get back. Furrion has obvious ability and improvement to come but the barrier doesn’t suit, the horse has to improve and the price looks wrong.
Caulfield Race 9 – 2000m – Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap – BM-84
1. Hursley: Strong run last start at course and distance and just beaten by a very good import. Looking for a stronger run race again here. Chop King JNR onboard.
2. Mongolian Wolf: Ran a reasonable race last start in harder grade at the bool 3rd to Tradesman. Up to ideal distance here. Group 2 placed in the past.
3. Survived: Mount Gabier cup winner. Not bad two back on heavy at Terang but failed to fire last start. Goes well on wet.
5. Our Peaky Blinders: Big win last start in Adelaide. Ran time at the start and end of race. 2nd placed won at Flemington since.
6. Jaminzah: Hasn’t run a strong race all prep. Horrible over the 2000m last start. Melham on but surely no?
7. Prima: Disappointed last start from on speed when had every chance to run out the race. Negative jockey change.
8. Sunday Pray: Ran solid sectionals on speed last start in harder company over 1600m. Just got run down late. Can improve here if handles the 2000m. Respect.
9. Bullish Stock: Three runs this prep and yet to run a race that would measure up here. Bes tin past clearly good enough and won over 1800m last prep in similar grade. Expect big improvement at weights.
10. He Ekscels: Go forward type. Last start ran poorly at course and distance. Three back run was very good over 2000m and would run well here with a repeat of that.
11. Noumea: Blinkers first time! Strong 2000m run last start 3rd behind Jaameh. Looking for more pace on here. Barrier an issue.
12. Patch Adams: Nice enough type of horse. Got home well over 2000m last start in a slowly run race. Best can go okay here.
13. Like the Clappers: Good type last prep but two runs this prpe hasn’t gone to the level required to win this.
14. Silence the Stars: Maiden win looked okay and then won last start in a very slowly run race. Big jump in grade.
15. Hazard Ahead: Not the worst run 3.2L 9th at course and distance last start. Best in past probably still place at best.
Top Chances: Our Peaky Blinders
High Chances: Sunday Pray, Hursley, Mongolian Wolf, Noumea
Medium Chances: Bullish Stock, He Ekscels, Patch Adams
Low Chances: Like the Clapper, Prima
Very Low Chances: Silence the Stars, Jaminzah, Survived
Expected Speed: Survived, Sunday Pray and Prima to push the speed here. Anywhere from benchmark to 7L above benchmark will be run early on.
Comments: Our Peaky Blinders comes out of the right race and maps nicely here. Sunday Pray and Hursley look nicely suited with speed on while Noumea could improve onward and upwards here.
