Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 11 February 2017. After racing perfectly the past few times, Caulfield is expected to once again race very well with pace dictating how races will be run. We aren’t putting any 10 unit bombs or a such on today but we have some fairly confident plays on the card at prices we are keen to bet into. Moonee Valley saw our Australian Guineas horse Farson score well and shorten from $151 into $30s so I hope you got the win last night and some of the futures bet. We just can’t seem to find a lot of luck from Craig Williams lately with our best bet a moral beaten last night and Divine Artie a few weeks back, both at nice odds. Hopefully we can catch him on our runners today. Looking forward to a great day of racing and fingers are crossed for a good performance. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Chautauqua – 3 units @ $2.60. Hellbent – 0.7 unit @ $5.5
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Fuhryk – 2 units @ $3.50 to win.
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 2 – Peacock – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.5/$1.91
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Mourinho – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.50
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 3, 7
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12
Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 10, 11
Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 9, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1800m – thebigscreencompany.com.au Handicap
1. Signoff: Old mate never won at this distance in the past. Clearly best is over 2500m+ and not with such a large weight. New trainer.
2. Refulgent: Had his chances last start at Caulfield when 1.6L 3rd behind Dodging Bullets. Won three back at the Bool.
3. Second Bullet: Ran well enough first up last prep over the 1700m and previous prep was a close 0.6L 3rd over 1800m. Very best is over further but he has measured up at this track well in the past and over these distances.
4. Nozomi: Got a win in a 6 horse race last start and this looks about the same type of company. Did run a good 2nd over the Flemington carnival as well this prep.
5. De Little Engine: Old mate needs further than this as he gets on in age. Wasn’t a great last prep. D Oliver on but even so hard to suggest here.
6. Hipparchus: Very solid win last start at Flemington suited by the final sprint race. Stays at 1600m and this looks ideal. Needs to get a good ride from this barrier.
7. Harada Bay: Consistent type that is an Open class horse that doesn’t put his very best runs together every time. Horrible last start at Randwick off the not suited tempo. Win wouldn’t be a total shock but has to improve onwards.
8. Like A Carousel: Needs further.
9. Our Bottino: Very strong win two back over Show a Star and was bold to the line last start just missing out with Dodging Bullets nailing him on the line. Comes in well again at the weights from a perfect barrier to lead.
11. Prima: Had nearly a month off between runs and steps back to the 1800m today. Stays at the open class here he is yet to win but has placed in the past. Clearly going well enough to be a chance.
Comments: Standouts on form for me are Nozomi, Hipparchus and Our Bottino. Personally, I just have to bet around Nozomi here – the price is where I expect it to be and stay. Our Bottino is well over the odds while Hipparchus is at the right odds and has to be savered. Harada Bay is probably the value in the race if it can find it’s best.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Our Bottino. Saver bet Hipparchus.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1400m – Hyland Race Colours Autumn Stakes
1. Attention: First up at Rosehill in WFA-G2 class 3.2L 5th when average at best on the day. Up to 1400m where more suitable and back to 3YO Group 2 grade. Stable have a very strong strike rate at course.
2. Peacock: First up ran home okay at Moonee Valley when never really a chance behind Malaguerra and others in WFA-G2. Up to 1400m should be more suitable today and will be fit for that run.. Expect a bold run.
3. Oak Door: Had his chances last start at Flemington. Good win two and three back over some nice horses. Doesn’t appear to have any more improvement on what he has shown to date for mine.
4. Snitzson: Lightly raced Colt. Won 3 from 5 and continues to go through the grades. Hardest test to date but looks to have the ability to measure up coming off a very strong Flemington win. Better barrier today and smaller field. Ideal.
5. Ruthven: Progressed strongly through the grades last prep and was beaten 0.1L in Group class by Mortons Folk to end the prep. Starting at 1400m should see him run well today.
6. Knowable: Very strong win from on speed last start at Flemington in a nice strong time. Up in grade again here but looks very well in with added improvement expected at a shorter straight track for mine.
7. Redouble: Hawkes runner that measured up at Listed level last prep. Two runs in this prep on heavy and Soft and failed to fire. Has to improve.
8. None Better: Maiden winner last start. Well out of class here in what will be a very big test.
Comments: Really tough contest on paper with several winning hopes all with similar ratings. Knowable, Snitzson and Peacock are the three standouts on my form. Peacock is the clear standout back to a course that will be more suitable with a longer straight over further.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Peacock – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.5/$1.91
Caulfield Race 3 – 1100m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Preduce (Fillies)
1. Limestone: Disgustingly awesome win last start at Caulfield ridden for luck claiming a very good type in Tulip over the line. Step up in distance will be a positive today and most likely sits outside of Roomooz on the mapping to have every chance today.
2. Arctic Angel: Listed grade winner at Sandown last prep beating some nice horses. Trialed well heading into this and looks to be a contender. Has been well backed in betting today and maps on speed.
3. Catchy: Looked a top quality horse with her very strong first up win at Moonee Valley and then she smashed a quality field the next start at Caulfield which included the next start winner Property. Will be sitting midfield at best and coming home hard late. The horse to beat.
4. Roomooz: Won well first up over in Adelaide beating some okay types on the day. Trial between runs where she smashed them on a Soft 6 in a very nice type as well. Looks a big chance today.
5. Blondie: Got the lead and pushed forward, led and won last start at Moonee Valley. On the results we have seen since, she didn’t beat the best of the best on the day and has to improve here.
6. Zarpoya: Out the back last start and ran on solidly to get close to Blondie who led all the way. Certainly has some ability but needs to improve.
7. Pandemonium: Waterhouse runner. Solid third first up this prep at Randwick from on speed on a Soft 5 track. Has to improve here but did run well enough to suggest ability.
8. Cherief’s Choice: Wide no cover last start at Caulfield and never really a chance on the day. Forgive the run and rate on today.
9. Fabrication: Maloney jumps on this girl today – 60k purchase for the Griffiths stable and it wouldn’t surprise me if they have saved one of their very best to be shown on the track today.
Comments: The market really has this one right with Limestone, Arctic Angel, Catchy and Roomooz as the four key chances in the race while Fabrication is the money watch along with Pandemonium. Catchy and Limestone map to get absolute dream runs from midfield or closer if we talk about Limestone while Roomooz will also be there on the rail. Catchy looks to be the horse with the most improvement to show here and that is what is required heading towards the Blue Diamond.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Catchy to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G)
1. Azazel: Wide last start at Caulfield when ran very well 2nd behind Property. Horror barrier today. From all reports he may very well be the top pick of the McEvoy stable this year.
2. Property: Had his chances first up when smashed by Catchy at course and distance. Last start had the race run to suit out front and smashed them late off the hot tempo. Very good run and maps nicely from barrier 3.
3. Wait for No One: On speed last start at course over 1000m and didn’t finish off well at all. Had been very well backed and talked up as the stables main colt chance. Expect a better run here but has to improve.
4. Pariah: Did everything right first up at Rosehill in a hotly contested and top prizemoney race. Looks above average and clearly the pick for the Snowden team. Packs a very strong finishing dash. Barrier is the issue.
5. Cao Cao: Won well last start at Moonee Valley but didn’t really beat much on the day. First up today and needs to improve lengths to measure up. Markets believe the horse will, but I can’t have it.
6. Can’t Remember: Fairly beaten only run last prep. Hard to suggest he is good enough to beat this cracking field off what we have seen.
7. Marsupial: Nice enough win first up at Canterbury in a maiden grade race. Rates as a chance here from the good barrier.
8. Indernile: Smashed the clock late with two solid finishing sectionals last start at course and similar distance. Even so, was beaten nearly 2 lengths and from a poor barrier again doesn’t map map.
10. Will’s Bid: Geelong maiden winner in a time that is hard to measure up. Certainly looks outclassed on that first up win.
11. Overshare: Toughed it out from on speed last start and ran a solid race 4th beaten 2.2L. Expect he will try and take cover today behind the leader and hope for an easier race. Has to improve.
12. Sheer Madness: Nice enough run 5th last start behind Property… but on that run I clearly can’t have him ahead of 3-4 horses here at very least.
13. Annunciate: Well bred colt. Wouldn’t surprise if he actually ran quite a good race from the barrier. Even so, hard to suggest he is good enough to win this.
14. Mighty Boss: Drifter in the markets since they opened. Trialed averagely at best heading into this. Not for me.
Comments: The win of Property last start was hard to ignore. With the same front runners today we have to believe the same tempo will be on out front and Property maps perfectly for the right run today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Property E/W
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Kevin Hayes Stakes
1. Jennifer Lynn: Well backed first up this prep over the unsuitable 1100m down the Flemington straight, yet she ran very well. Up to 1200m and while she probably needs further to show her very best, she looks well in here from the barrier.
2. Selenia: Group3 winner last prep over 1200m at Moonee Valley. Ran home nicely enough first up beaten 1L 5th. Has to improve onwards today but should run well from the barrier.
3. Oregon’s Day: Horrible only run last prep. Previous prep won well at course and distance in 2YO-LR grade. Obviously has ability but has to show it here.
4. Zunbaqa: Hayes runner with clear ability having won 4 from 7. Has to have trained on to beat all these here. Has the ability.
5. Fuhryk: Held up for runs at Flemington and hit the line strongly. Back up to the 1200m and a stronger tempo today more ideal. Clearly a top class horse.
6. Navagio: Strong win from out back first up down the straight at Flemington. Showed big improvement and while we knew she has ability, this has proven it. Good barrier today will get back and run on well.
7. Special Diva: Won two in a row including last start at course over 1400m. Well up in class and back in distance the test today.
8. Savanna Amour: Simply too far back at Flemington last start off the slow tempo. Previous runs in Queensland have her well in here. Will go around a nice price.
9. Inspired Estelle: Horrible both runs last prep. Previous prep obviously ran well on soft at Sandown. Need it to rain to have confidence in a good run.
10. Florida Keys: Sale winner last start for this horse that has won in the past over 1500m. Was a pretty good win first up and she has to be respected.
11. Facts: Average maiden win first up in just okay time. Others much more preferred in the market.
12. Dimoshot: Horrible form heading into last start when ran quite well behind Navagio beaten 2.2L 4th. Can’t have here.
13. Unique Lovely: Nice enough run 3rd behind Navagio first up. Up to 1200m ideal and around a bend probably preferred. Has to improve.
Comments: Several form lines here and the two I want to follow map well here. Fuhryk is a clear standout at the odds representing big value with a good ride today not out the back. Savanna Amour is the value in the race.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Fuhryk – 2 units @ $3.50 to win.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1100m – Schweppes Rubiton Stakes
1. Chautauqua: Old mate wasn’t his very best last prep and had an off spring. Just ignore that and know that his trial showed that he is ticking over fine and is suited over the 1100m first up here in such a small field.
2. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Hasn’t won in a very long time and has only won once first up in the past. Measures up to this grade of race but just doesn’t have the ability to knock off all these runners at the weights.
3. Hellbent: First up was a very good run without winning in what was a slowly run first 600 and a sprint home. Clearly has a top class turn of foot and will measure up again here.
4. Wild Rain: Showed sensational improvement last prep to score in Group 3 and Group 2 class before a respectable third in G1 class in the Moir. Best is over the 1000m for mine.. .does go well at this track.. has ability but would need to go to the next level to beat Hellbent and Chautauqua today.
6. Super Cash: Lightly raced type that certainly hasn’t found her peak just yet. Beaten 4L by Lucky Hussler into 3rd to finish last prep coming off a 1.3L defeat behind Wild Rain the run prior. Goes well at Caulfield but needs to find lengths.
7. El Divino: Well backed first up at Flemington in easier grade of race and was nabbed late. Clearly measures up to the top level and will be making strong improvement as he ages. Maps on speed.
8. I Am A Star: G1 Myer winner last prep with the low weight beating a decent bunch. G3 winner over the 1100m so knows how to sprint. While a win wouldn’t be a total shock, she clearly looks at her best over further.
Comments: Chautauqua, Hellbent and El Divino are the three clear standouts on the ratings while Wild Rain and I Am A Star are both consistent runners that can run big races also. The price on Chautauqua even with the weight first up is more than acceptable. They won’t run him off his feet realy and he will be suited by the tempo. The main threat for mine looks to be Hellbent and you are getting an amazing price to back Chautauqua with a saver on Hellbent here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 7
Strategy: Chautauqua – 3 units @ $2.60. Hellbent – 0.7 units @ $5.5
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Ladbrokes C.F. Orr Stakes
1. Black Heart Bart: Struggled last start at Moonee Valley before the turn but finished off strongly. Crying out for the 1400m today and loves this track with the only defeat being 2nd to Winx. Maps awkwardly today.
2. Awesome Rock: Fair and square Group 1 winner last prep over 2000m. Won over 1600m in the past but 1400m does seem short of his best in this grade of race.
3. Lucky Hussler: Blocked for runs last start at Gold Coast hwne never got a shot at them over 1400m with 61kg. Always targeted at the Gold Coast due to the crazy prize money and was very much in form on the day. Comes back to WFA-G1 at Caulfield and looks well suited with Lane taking the ride from barrier 4. Personally feel he has more talent than Black Heart Bart over this distance.
4. Malaguerra: Very questionable jump out of the sprint distances to 1400m today. Certainly a very good 1200m win last start but this is the big testing material from a poor barrier.
5. Turn Me Loose: Horrible first up over the 1200m. Last prep won a WFA-G1 race over Stratum Star at course and distance. Hasn’t shown enough for mine though last prep nor this prep to consider.
6. Arod: Top quality horse over the 1400-1600m ranges and ran a very game 1400m in hot time at Flemington finishing off last prep. The run prior behind Tepin was great also. They bet a huge price for him today and he has been backed. I hope they try and lead today from the barrier.
7. Palentino: Hit the line like a horse on the right path towards 1600m races. Will improve onwards again today and while I think he will run well, I can’t have him at Caulfield. Wait for Flemington.
8. Ecuador: Going much better than most give him credit for. Last start win was very solid. Waterhouse knows he is going the best he ever has this prep and a win wouldn’t shock.
9. He’s Our Rokkii: Last prep obviously won over 1400m first up but this is WFA-G1 grade today. Group 1 winner off 55kg last prep in much easier race than this. Has to be at his best and even then I can’t tip it.
10. Jameka: Always seems to run nicely over this distance but her real go is over further. Pass.
11. Miss Rose de Lago: Old mate disappointed a few times last prep after scoring at nice odds for us in WFA-G2 class at course and distance. Good barrier but won’t get an uncontested lead today.
12. Divine Prophet: The dark horse in the race so to speak. Group 1 winner last prep over the 1600m and I personally feel his best distance may very well be the 1400m on what i saw last prep. Has to be at his best to measure up here today.
Comments: The $7 available for Lucky Hussler is well over the odds for the horse I believe is the most talented horse over the 1400-1600m range while Arod goes into the same boat.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12
Strategy: Lucky Hussler to win. Also back Arod
Caulfield Race 8 – 1600m – The Resimax Group TS Carylon Cup
1. Tally: His last prep was well below his best. Previous preps runs would have him running nicely enough here, but even so, his best was at 2000m+. Not convinced.
2. Burning Front: Strong win last start over 1500m at Moonee Valley. Two starts two wins at this course and Hellova Street has franked the form of two back also. Certainly has improvement to show today and is weighted nicely.
3. Pilote D’essai: 2500m winner last prep. First up over 1600m and will need the run today. Take on.
4. Tonopah: Ran a blinder last start 2nd behind Grande Rosso but was fairly held off. Has to improve but has claims.
5. Grande Rosso: Just continues to get the job done so take on at your own risk. Not convinced up to 1600m and up to this grade of race will see the best out of him.
6. Humidor: WFA-G1 second last prep over in NZ. Vetted last start and ran home very well. Up to 1600m today but best is over further. Back next start.
7. Mourinho: Missed the start and did nothing first up. Up to and over the 1600m much better suited. Has won at course over 1400m in WFA-G2 and 1800m in WFA-G1. Stupid odds.
8. Tom Melbourne: Old mate is hard to catch and even harder to back. Best is over further.
9. Master Reset: Disappointing run first up. Hard to suggest next start based on that run.
10. Divine Mr Artie: Moral beaten last start at Flemington when flew home when it was ll over. Has to improve to measure up to this level of race again.
11. Real Love: Finished off solidly over the 1400m first up when never really a threat. Well in at the weights compared to the company from that previous race and looks a chance.
Comments: Humidor is under the odds for mine today and I have to take it on. Burning Front and Real Love at the weights are the horses to beat while Divine Mr Artie can’t be forgotten and Mourinho is a stupid price based on a forgive run. I’ll have a small play on Mourinho at the odds.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 10, 11
Strategy: Mourinho – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.50
Caulfield Race 9 – 1200m – MyPunter.com Bellmaine Stakes
1. Silent Sedition: Won 4 of her last 8 and placed the other 4. Never won at this track but placed all 3 attempts. Best distance in the past has been 1400m+ – goes well in this grade but probably needs further to find her very best.
2. Abbey Marie: Three starts for three wins. Best clearly over further than this. Not sure I could have her.
3. Thames Court: Ran very well first and second up last prep over the 1200m and 1400m. Group 1 4th as well over 1400m last prep. Clearly has ability.
5. Choose: Disappointing last prep both runs. Previous prep showed she has the ability to measure up to this level. Never won at this track.
6. Denpurr: Ran well as always last start at Gold Coast behind Private Secretary flying home. Well in here back to 1200m but will be out the back coming home late.
7. Alaskan Rose: Needs further. Not here for mine.
8. Kayjay’s Joy: Showed nothing first up or the only run last prep. Clearly a good horse with a 1100m mares win at course over 1100m in the past. Has to find form here.
9. Prussian Vixen: Sensational win two back at course over 1100m. Last start was a very tough 3rd at Moonee Valley off a stronger tempo out front. Well weighted again here and gets 2.5kg on Ameristralia. Respect. Can win.
10. Ameristralia: Maps awkwardly again today and is every chance to get caught 3-wide the trip. Obviously a very good type on past runs and one to beat.
12. Little Indian: Showed no form two runs in a row but well back in class last start found one too good last Friday at Moonee Valley. Short backup and has to improve up to the 1200m.
13. Written Era: Won 4 of last 5 ending last prep. First up every chance over the 1100m. Needs further for very best.
Comments: Prussian Vixen is every chance again today to get away with murder out front and will be hard to get past if that is the case with the main chances expected to sit at least 2 lengths off entering the straight. Denpurr is the main danger for mine off any tempo with the horses strong turn of foot.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: Back Prussian Vixen and Denpurr.
