Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 10 February 2018. The rail moves in from the 9m position to true and we expect those close to the rail and inside the 6m to be best suited – no real bias advantage though so should play fair. Just the two main bets late in the day to open the shoulders on. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Tshahitsi 1 unit @ $18 to win / 3 units @ $5.00 to place
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Silent Sedition 2 units @ $3.10. Flippant 1 unit @ $7.00
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 5, 6, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 5
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – The Big Screen Company Handicap – 1800m
1. Goldstream: Finished a long last at Caulfield and no excuses. On speed today.
2. Gallic Chieftain: 80 days between runs and Yendall keeps ride. Goes well enough over this distance on past efforts with 2.6L and 2.5L defeats in previous preps. Best over 2000m+.
3. Self Sense: Failed first up at Moonee Valley. Last win over further than this and really looks to be wanting 2000m+. Not for me.
4. Plot The Course: Strong run 2nd behind Morton’s Folk beaten 4L at Caulfield. Beat home Khutulun – suited to strong tempo races.
5. Khutulun: Comes out of a strongly run race at Caulfield and stays at distance. Now or never at weights.
6. Adirondack: Two ruins this prep and well beaten on both occasions behind Malaise and Widgee Turf. If well backed pay attention.
7. Downhearted: Out of a very slow race where sprinted home fine. Up in distance and expect a stronger tempo here, but not overly strong.
8. The Mighty Jrod: 2400m down to 1400m back to 1700m here. Best over 2000m+. Needs a staying tempo.
Expected speed: Below benchmark
Most favoured horses: Downhearted, Adirondack, Self Sense
Least favoured: Gallic Chieftain, The Mighty Jrod
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: Downhearted to win
Caulfield Race 2 – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (f) – 1100m
1. Crossing The Abbey: Every chance last start and found one too good. Maps on speed and well again today and has to be considered.
2. Oohood: Get back run on type. Maps back again. If found luck last start just wins. Ride for luck again today but clearly best of these.
3. Enbihaar: Comes into this off a Morphetville win. Looked average at best need to improve. Maps ideal.
4. Al Naifa: Midfield rails type. Coming out of a slowly run race where won last start. Williams onboard. Two runs not shown anywhere near enough to win this… but has ability.
5. Angel: Hayes/Dab runner that won a poor rating race at Geelong. On speed type. Struggle to suggest.
6. La Parva: Ballarat winner on lead in and maps to sit behind the leader. Times well below what is needed here though.
7. Seabrook: First up today 100 days between runs so could be a different horse. Only average first prep.
8. Downloads: Good type like how it went through the line last start, but clearly looking for 1400-1600 to find best compared to Oohood.
9. Pure Elation: Looked home first up when just died on run from out front. Not sure if horse just stopped uncontested or if fitness gave in. Will be much fitter here and not leading, can hit the front late if good enough. Barrier the issue.
10. Lake District Girl: Paraded very well first up and led them around fast and didn’t finish off. Needs to improve but clearly has ability.
11. Diamond Reflection: Price runner first run ever here. Hasn’t been backed. Has won a 4 horse barrier trial. Noonan keeps ride.
12. Persuader: Another Price runner that hasn’t been backed. Has won a 5 horse barrier trial beating Seabrook. Mallyon keeps ride.
13. Sundarbans: Hawkes runner unplaced in only trial. Market the guide and hasn’t been backed and Avdulla stays in Sydney.
Expected Speed: Above benchmark
Most favoured horses: Oohood, Persuader, Downloads
Least favoured: Angel, Lake District Girl, Al Naifa, La Parva
Confidence: 50%
Strategy: Oohod to win. Smaller bet Persuader.
Caulfield Race 3 – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G) – 1100m
1. Run Naan: Only fair first up and looks to have a load of improvement to come today. Maps out the back.
2. Ollivander: Get back run on type. Jockey a concern again and will need to be ridden for luck i’d suspect. Was unlucky last start smashed at critical stages.
3. Written By: On speed type very well suited today. Big jump in what he can produce needed here but has to be respected.
4. Bionics: Ran well both runs last prep including a 4th in Group 3 behind Run Naan. Respect any betting moves.
5. Native Solider: Strong win at Moonee Valley when led them around below benchmark and sprinted home strongly. Testing material here but maps well here.
6. Plague Stone: Strong trial winner. Only run last prep proved to be a good type. Respect here.
7. Seberate: Got the win at Pakenham 3 weeks back. Massive jump needed times wise.
8. High Ratio: Trial winner to end last prep after a maiden win. Not the worst.
9. Ben Hercules: Good 2nd above benchmark first up at Ballarat beaten by a nice type. Has to improve but obviously going well and best jockey onboard for top stable.
10. Hinchrider: Reasonable type on what we saw last start. Had to improve but can.
11. Halvorsen: No public trials. No info. Big odds.
12. John Booke: As above runner, no public trials. No info. Big odds.
13. The Running Man: Dunn onboard. First start. Had an open trial and looked ok.
14. Titan Blinders: First time seen for nice stable. Well bred but not been backed.
Expected Speed: A few lengths below Benchmark to Benchmark.
Most favoured horses: Native Solider, Ollivander, Bionics
Least favoured horses: Run Naan, High Ratio
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Native Solider and Ollivander
Caulfield Race 4 – Ladbrokes TS Carlyon Cup – 1600m
1. Gailo Chop: On speed type who won two from 7 last prep. Won 2nd up last prep over 1400m in Listed grade. Last 5 runs were above 12 lengths above benchmark last prep suggesting this is a quality horse over 1600m+. Suited with sit.
2. Lord Fandango: Expected to lead them around today first up. Returned from spell last prep with a slashing 2nd to Wheal Leisure. Best runs came last prep off hot tempos. Best over 2000m+ but can’t see why not here if fit.
3. Wyndspelle: Ran home well first up off a slow speed out front. Get back run on type that will be best suited by the tempo on out front today.
4. Harlem: Returning to the track. First up last prep over 1700m only beaten 2.1L by Hell or Highwater. Last 7 runs have been 11 lengths or more above benchmark. Can sprint home if needed.
5. Seaburge: One run this prep and well beaten. Last start came through line well enough to consider going forward.
6. Petrology: Didn’t show much at all last start when failed to finish off. may need the run here.
7. Master Reset: Best in past below this. Consistent 3-5L below bennchmark runner.
Expected Speed: Moderate to above Benchmark
Most favoured horses: Gailo Chop, Harlem, Wyndpselle, Lord Fandango
Least favoured horses: Master Reset, Petrology
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Harlem E/W
Caulfield Race 5 – Kevin Hayes Stakes – 1200m
1. Shoals: Perfect position just behind leader. Best over further but handles distance fine.
2. Tulip: First up for 100 days. Didn’t get a win last prep but ran well enough in Open class and a Group 2 over 1200-1400m. Respect ability and jockey booking.
3. Booker: Failed in the Thousand Guineas last prep but delivered three very strong runs prior to have over 1200-1400m. Times were all well better than benchmark and this is a classy animal. Push forward most likely sit 1/1?
4. Leather ‘n’ Lace: Clear leader on paper and is expected to lead them around benchmark pace. Best run last prep was 1400m.
5. Magnesium Rose: Flew home last run after knuckling badly as i’ve ever seen and going back to last. Probably wins from on speed. Change of jockey and awkward barrier.
6. Smart Coupe: Williams jumps on. Horse gets the extra 100m it wants here today and maps an absolute treat on speed. Will get the tempo run to suit, very hard to beat.
7. Wooshka: Showed improvement last start when 3rd at Randwick. A few weeks between runs and has to improve here again.
8. Ultra Smart: First up 3rd to Mag Rose at course over 1100m was a good run. Went backwards last start compared. Has to improve. Wants a strong tempo.
9. See Me Exceed: Good run 4th at Caulfield first up before only fair down the straight. Back to Caulfield and inside barrier. Get back run on.
10. Miss Oklahoma: Average type on what we saw winning at Moe. Has to improve here.
Expected Speed: Lengths faster than Benchmark
Most favoured horse: Smart Coupe, Shoals, Booker, Leather ‘n’ Lace
Least favoured horses: See Me Exceed, Miss Oklahoma, Magnesium Rose
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Smart Coupe and Tulip
Caulfield Race 6 – Schweppes Rubiton Stakes – 1100m
1. Rich Charm: Ended last prep running a career peak at Flemington down the straight in a time that would simply just win this.
2. Super Cash: First up winner last prep sprinting home to record a strong win. Consider.
3. Flamberge: Flew home first up at Flemington off the slow pace and was held up for runs at critical stages – probably should have won? Group 1 winner multiple times for a reason and the stable have him going well – most importantly, down in weights well suited here.
4. Hellbent: A horse with a load of ability that has encountered injury problems in the past. Could be the first time in a while this horse is fit. Strong times to end last prep.
5. Cannyescent: Nice type of horse. D Oliver onboard for Hayes/Dab. Ended last prep over the 1400m distances. Not exactly perfectly suited to 1100m the issue.
6. Merchant Navy: Get back run on type. Flew home last start winning the Coolmore at Flemington. Ready to go here – top quality type.
7. Prezado: Strong run 2nd behind Nature Strip last start at Flemington. Previous win end of last prep was top quality. 3YO on the way up and looks the real deal.
8. Ardrossan: On speed type first up in Aus. Won in listed grade very impressively as a 2YO and beyond last prep beating the likes of So Far SoKool. Only ever been on soft tracks.. but this horse looks the absolute real deal.
Expected Speed: Benchmark
Most favoured horse: Flamberge, Ardrossan, Super Cash
Least favoured horse: Merchant Navy
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Flamberge and Ardorossan
Caulfield Race 7 – Hyland Race Colours Autumn Stakes – 1400m
1. Levendi: Obviously a top quality classy colt. First up here. Stable is going ok but not super right now. D Oliver keeps ride and will obviously go well over this distance, but main aim is over further later in prep.
2. Villermont: Solid lead in trial. Flew home last start in the Sandown Guineas presented an absolute pick of the yard treat.. held off Peaceful State who has come out and looked a Group 1 horse mid-week on the path to the Guineas. Gets back from gate.
3. Astoria: Nice type that got out over 2500m last prep for a third in the Derby. Did win a G3 last prep over 1600m so 1400m not out of the horses distance range. Barrier helps get a spot midfield.
5. Prevailing Winds: Continues to run solid figures this prep but two back wasn’t able to get a win in this/similar grade. Step up to 1400m a query for very best that is needed to place here.
6. Muraahib: Hard horse to catch. Best on past results obviously good enough to measure up. Maps ok from barrier today but hard to have.
7. Black Sail: On speed runner today. Last prep ran a very valid 3rd in the Guineas and 1400m no troubles has measured up over that in the past.
8. Island Missile: Has run some very solid times, especially when allowed to sprint home. Big jump again in what is needed today though.
9. Andaz: Couldn’t get a win last prep and returned in only fair conditions first up. Has to improve here to measure up.
10. Scarecrow: Lightly raced type from Adelaide. Always looked the real deal but didn’t exactly put them away last start. Yet to show us a win off a reasonable time yet.
11. Weapon: Two wins in a row this prep going through the grades. Massive jump here. Tough ask.
12. Holy Snow: Ended last prep running a solid 9th in G1 company. Previous runs that prep included a G3 3rd behind Showtime. Has ability and trialed well on lead in. Short of best?
13. Mr So And So: Strong 4th two back at Flemington before finding a slower tempo last start and not being suited. Has to improve and barrier doesn’t help.
14. Illumicon: Very well backed first up and found nothing for Currie who keeps the ride. Stable like the horse.
Expected Speed: Benchmark to 2 metres above benchmark
Most favoured horse: Black Sail, Villermont
Least favoured horse: Mr So and So, Holy Snow, Muraahib, Levendi
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Villermont and Black Sail
Caulfield Race 8 – Ladbrokes C.F.Orr Stakes – 1400m
1. Hartnell: The ‘best’ horse in the race on his past performances and trailed well. Barrier a huge negative, either goes back like last prep or pushes forward and gets caught 3-wide. Tough ask.
2. Black Heart Bart: Bar Plates off (front). Perfect barrier today. Rawiller keeps ride. Maps perfectly. Only query is rumors of the horses hoof issues.. but bar plates would remain on if that were the case. Expect a big run.
3. Tosen Stardom: Get back run on type. Maps out the back which will make things tough today. Flying at home but will be peaking for the Aus Cup run over 600m further. Have to take on.
4. Brave Smash: Blinkers off. Horrible first up at Moonee Valley and wasn’t anywhere near fit enough. Has to improve here and query at 1400m for best?
5. Lord of the Sky: Looks to be in this race hoping for a slow speed race suiting a sprint home. Ran 22.04 first up winning over 1200m so if he gets an easy lead, he actually has to be considered.
6. Tshahitsi: Strong win last start but had all favours. Has to improve onwards again here and will need to push the speed. Does have the final 400m off a sit sprint also though to compete.
7. Mr Sneaky: Strong top quality horse over 1400-1600m. Loves the speed on but query here.
8. Thronum: Handles 1200-1400m distances no troubles. Looks an elite type and won well last start first up at Moonee Valley. Had improvement to come and looks very well suited here going forward from the barrier. If it’s a sit sprint home, has the times to win.
9. Dollar for Dollar: Blinkers on. Moral beaten last start off a slow tempo when 3-wide the trip and still ran 2nd. Wants a tough pace here.
10. Single Gaze: Staying type. Goes well enough over 1400m but just have to take on here. Not suited.
11. Shillelagh: Two trials on lead in but ok. Best last prep was 1600m when won the Group 1. Was allowed on speed on that occasion and won’t get that here. Has strong late sectioanls.
12. Abbey Marie: Concussion plates first time (front). Best over 2000m+ in the past. Get back type.
13. Jester Halo: Nice win last start but poor mapping from barrier and a real tough ask in this class.
14. Mighty Boss: Wants the speed on out front and won’t get it. Nice staying tough type but lacking in a turn of foot to sprint.
Expected Speed: Benchmark to 2L above Benchmark
Most favoured horses: Lord of the Sky, Thronum, Black Heart Bart, Tshahitsi
Least favoured horses: Hartnell, Mr Sneaky, Mighty Boss
Confidence: 90%
Strategy: Back Tshahitsi 1 unit @ $18 to win / 3 units @ $5.00 to win.
Caulfield Race 9 – MyPunter.Com Bellmaine Stakes – 1200m
1. Silent Sedition: First up today and goes very well over this distance and runs well first up. Maps perfectly behind leaders.
2. Montoya’s Secret: Nice type. Best seen in past has been 1400m+ is the query and first up doesn’t do best work.
3. Prussian Vixen: On speed runner not suited well enough by tempo today. The slower they go the harder this horse is to get past.
4. Flying Jess: Flew home first up last prep over the 1200m and just missed. Not much harder than that but this horse has performed best over 1600m in the past.
5. Flippant: Huge disappointment last start at Moonee Valley. Might just have to forgive that run as ran very well at Flemington the run prior and remains at distance. Maps well just off the speed.
6. Just Hifalutin: Get back run on type. Won 2 of last 4 and ran 2nd the other two. Best runs in past few have been off slow early tempos for a sit and sprint. This will be the testing material but has measured up in the past to stronger tempos.
7. Petition: Get back type. Best runs are off strong tempos when strong through line. Distance may be short of best is only query.
8. Fragonard: One run for one win last prep. Times were sound. Maps perfectly on speed again if good enough. Goes well at Caulfield. Williams off Lane on a query.
9. For a Song: Had her chances last start and just didn’t finish off well enough. On speed but not here.
10. Annrhon: Two back run was super doing it early and late. Get back run on today from barrier. Did win at Flemington two back for a reason.
11. Fraulein Rustie: Three runs this prep and yet to get a win. Change of jockey positive. Tough wide barrier.
12. Barchetta: Pakenham winner last start in much easier. Previous best not good enough.
Expected Speed: Above benchmark by 3-4L.
Most favoured horses: Silent Sedition, Flying Jess, Fragonard
Least favoured horses: For a Song, Just Hifalutin
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Silent Sedition 2 units @ $3.10. Also back Flippant 1 unit @ $7.00
