Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 1 October 2017. The Rail returns to the true position and we can expect those on speed to have a slight advantage. If you getting out further than the 6M line in run, you are going to have a bad time! A very competitive card overall but we are confident on our top two bets while thinking we have found some strong value runners around also. Looking forward to some solid results. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Catchy – 6 units @ $2.10 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Hartnell – 4 units @ $2.15 to win
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 2 – Snitty Kitty 1.75 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.40
Other Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Ability 1.25 units @ $5.50 to win. Bassett 0.75 units @ $12.00 to win
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – MyPunter Handicap
Expected Speed: Average
2. Portion Control: Good type that has had a month and a half off. Top 6 all past 6 runs and has won at Caulfield in harder company over some good types and a 2nd to Jaminzah. Form lines are legit only query is step back to 1400m. May need the run but good weight with claim.
4. Ozi Choice: Should have smashed them two back at Caulfield then failed going over to Adelaide. Few weeks between runs and back to dryer track today.
5. Steel Frost: Two strong wins this prep and continues to go from strength to strength. Down in class here and back to a dryer surface, this horse looks the real deal.
7. Comacina: Queensland runner now down here. Hard to suggest at all off the recent form lines but on last prep the horse has to be considered.
9. Hunting Hill: Two starts for two wins this prep and steps up in distance here. Back to dryer tracks as well.
10. Tribal Wisdom: Three runs this prep and while the first up run was really good he has failed the next two runs since.
11. Castelo: Goes well first up. Last prep was measuring up in much harder classes. Looks very well placed here.
12. Imperator Augustus: BM-81 2nd last start at Randwick and won at Canterbury the previous start. 0 wins from 5 starts on a Good track.
14. Typhoon Monaco: Ended last prep with two VERY strong wins over 2040m and 1600m. First up was poor as expected but should improve significantly over 1400m. That being said, may still be short of what is needed.
15. Special Diva: Won two in a row before up in class last start and still ran very well 5th behind Samovare when really wasn’t suited by the RV track for mine and had to go too early. Back in class here.
16. Stormsabrewing: Strong prep heading into this new prep. has won first up in the past and goes well at this distance on a Good track. First time at track a negative from the barrier.
17. Willby Rules: Four wins in a row back in Tasmania so heads over here to try and measure up. Has to be respected based on those wins.
18. Battlecamp: Old mate ran well first up but still beaten 3.3L. His best is good enough to consider here but has never won 2nd up and took 5 runs last prep to get the win.
20. Written Attraction: Three wins in a row before 0.7L 5th last start. Up in class again an issue.
Comments: Very wide open race to start the day. I like the looks of Special Diva, Ozi Choice and Steel Front here while I wouldn’t be shocked to see Castelo, Portion Control and Battlecamp run well either.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Steel Frost top pick. Also would be having smaller bets on Special Diva aand Ozi Choice at odds.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – ITalkTravel Plate
1. Snitty Kitty: Five runs last prep for 3 firsts and 2 seconds. Goes very well over this distance and looks well in here. Respect!
2. Sullivan Bay: Ridden poorly last start and will be pushing much more tempo on in the race this start. Back to 1100m ideal and Brown onboard for the claim also helps.
3. Lyuba: Horrible in the yard again last start but ran poorly as well. Hard horse to catch or trust this prep and could only back if really well in the yard.
4. Petite’s Reward: Solid win last start at Sandown coming off a good run behind Sullivan Bay the previous start. Has to step up again to beat these.
5. Quilista: Won well first up beating Theanswermyfriend before failing as favourite over in Morphetville last start. Step up in grade needed again and stays at 1100m which doesn’t look suitable for mine.
6. Divine Chills: Continues to run well this prep. Failed to handle MV last start for mine and can run better here. Barrier an issue.
7. Motown Lil: FMB-70 winner first up then failed to get the job done in same grade last start as favourite on a heavy. Back to much dryer here.
8. Violent Snow: Doesn’t win out of turn this horse. First up today and needs the run surely. Best over further.
9. Chiavari: Doesn’t win often but always runs well. Two runs this prep both good but couldn’t win. Not here.
10. Jalan Jalan: Expect a strong turn around in form today as this horse is going well at home. Not much improvement to best needed.
11. Selenia: Failed to win last prep but did measure up and run some decent races 0.4L and 0.6L off in GP3 and 3YOF races.
12. Winspot: Been going well in easier country grade races this prep and takes a big step up here. Happy to take on.
13. Fille Champagne: Sandown winner to end last prep as favourite. Never placed in the past first or second up a huge query.
14. A Mist Opportunity: First up today. Failed to win anything last prep. Can’t see the class.
Comments: Quilista is a horse i’m keen to be taking on in the market here. I can see Snitty Kitty and Sullivan Bay leading them around at a hot tempo and being very hard to get past late. At the odds i’m keen to back Snitty Kitty who has had 3 runs at this track for a win and two places.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Snitty Kitty 1.75 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.40
Caulfield Race 3 – 2000m – Inglis Cup
Expected Tempo: Average to Above Average
1. Hardham: Smashed a very good field last start at Flemington coming off a very good run at Caulfield. Up in distance where he has won a Group 2 in the past and been beaten 0.9L over 400m further in G1. Good barrier.
2. Lycurgus: Big threat to Hardham in this race if he has trained on. Was still fat in the yard but slowly improving last start when taken out by Thunder Teddington and really having his runs affected. Big jump in grade though.
3. Pablo’s Express: Have to respect this horse having won 3 from last 4 with 5.3L and 3.5L wins alongs the way. Step up in class but may measure up.
4. Baykool: 1.7L off The Thug last start at Mornington which was probably a career peak run. Goes best 2000m+ and will run well but not win.
5. Taikomochi: Four starts this prep and got the two easy wins on the board before jumping up in class last start and failing leading all the way. A month between runs but this is a tough ask.
6. Julio: 3L maiden winner at Mildura. Even so, very hard to see measuring up here.
7. So Belafonte: Beaten 5L last start at Morphtville over similar distance. Improvement required.
8. Wheal Leisure: Goes well enough this mare with 3F-LR 3rd on record and won well first up beating Lord Fangango who has gone on and won the cup yesterday at Benalla.
Comments: This is a bit more competitive than the price on Hardham suggests, but when you break it down, the horse has to win this race at least 60% of the time, if not more. I don’t see value in the price, but I couldn’t bet or tip against it.
Confidence 70%
Startegy: Hardham to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1700m – Ladbrokes Up For The Challenge Handicap
Expected Tempo:
1. Guardini: Ran very well last start 2nd to Hell or Highwater at course and distance. Negative jockey change but still maps well from inside barrier.
2. Turnitaround: Flew home first up over 1400m which looked an unsuitable distance. Steps up to 1700m and will be much fitter for nearly a full month between runs. Going better than ever and could blow them away here. Barrier only issue.
4. Amovatio: Ran much better than expected last start at Flemington for 6th. Still has more to come this prep even this deep. Number of runners against him today.
5. Big Memory: First up ran terrible over 1700m. Never won first or second up ever so no surprise. Needs the run.
6. Great Esteem: Horrible ride last start and previous when didn’t lead and allowed others to control tempo. Up to this distance more suited.
7. Nozomi: Flying currently this horse. Will get back and run on well again today. Barrier makes it tough.
8. Cool Chap: Returned very well this prep with a 4th and 5th on the board. Last start blocked for runs at critical times and could have run 2nd. Poor barrier today hurts chances.
9. Our Century: Not seen for 6 months. Goes well enough first up and ended last prep Group 3 2nd to BIg Duke. Has to be respected but needs further.
10. Petrology: Flew home last start and was a massive run on the day at Moonee Valley. Will improve onwards here and get the right run into the race. Big chance.
11. Count da Vinci: Good run first up 3rd at Flemington at odds. Can improve onwards and run nicely again.
12. Jacquinot Bay: Been 20+ rides since he got a win this old 10YO but he keeps running some blinders. If anyone could get him to win, it’s K McEvoy!
14. I’m Feeling Lucky: Has looked a million bucks in the yard the past two starts and ran horrible on both occasions. Had heart issues last start. I can see a win at big odds for this horse in it’s future.
15. Magic Consol: Great run 2nd behind Stampede last start at MV but this is tougher again. Does map well.
16. Tarquin: Two poor runs this prep and hard to see any improvement needed to win this. Jockey change poor.
17. Red Alto: Big Red gets back and runs on well. Form 4 if he jumps better he could be a chance, but it’s hard to get that far back in this big a field and do it.
18. Odeon: Found nothing first up but best is seen over further. Up to 1700m today where should run better but tough barrier and expecting they need another run.
Comments: Wide open race with several key chances. Turnitaround and Petrology are the value in the race while if having a speculation bet I’m Feeling Lucky is the one that has the potential to improve hugely.
Confidence 65
Startegy: Back Turnitaround and Petrology while have a smaller bet I’m Feeling Lucky
Caulfield Race 5 – Thousand Guineas Prelude
Expected Tempo: Average
1. Catchy: Sensational 1200m win leading in where she really had no right down that part of the straight to win. Jump to 1400m she has been crying out for and she looks the real deal. Perfect barrier to sit back and storm home.
2. Shoals: Nice type with 4 starts for 4 wins but this is a big jump in class. Will be on speed with Booker and has to be respected, but others are better.
3. Limestone: Was running into 2nd or 3rd last start when fell due to interference in front. Big issue for mine backing the horse in the same prep next start.
4. Roomooz: Too poor to be true after being vetted behind the stalls last start. Win two back over Tulip was top shelf stuff and up to 1400m today is the testing material.
5. Seannie: Been spruked as a big chance in the Thousand Guineas this year. Two solid lead in runs but has a lot to show stepping up to 1400m today when has looked a sprinter in the past.
6. Booker: Keeps running some very game races and was only beaten 1L last start by Catchy – fairly. Better at weights and will try lead, but has to improve.
8. She’s So High: Flew home on a day when you couldn’t at Moonee Valley and was a key eye-catcher. Step up here ideal.
9. Mahlani: Couldn’t fairly win a FMB-64 last start over 1300m. No thanks.
Comments: Catchy clearly the one to beat. Shoals, Roomooz and Booker the main dangers. Thoughts remain that Catchy is the best 3YO goiung around over 1200-1600m.
Confidence 95%
Startegy: Catchy – 6 units @ $2.10 to win
Caulfield Race 6 – Caulfield Guineas Prelude
Expected Tempo: Above Average to Hot
1. Invader: Disappointing returns this prep with a 6th and 7th but on best runs last prep he has to be considered. Did win a Group 1 over 1400m and 2nd over 1600m. Best seen on wetter.
2. Summer Passage: Lightly raced NZ import. Fell out of it quickly in the straight first up but not beaten too far. Best work at home in NZ was good enough to win a G1. Have to respect.
3. Royal Symphony: 4 starts 4 wins, 3 at Flemington and 1 at Pakenham. Horse is flying. Gets out to the back and runs on well late.
4. Muraahib: Two back run was really elite type of closing speeds but last start was ridden too far forward (stable agrees) and was cooked before the turn. Up to this distance helps and will want all over the 1600m. Could shock.
5. Al Passem: Not a bad return the past two but really just not up to this grade. Place at best.
6. Kementari: Godolphin runner that will improve off the first up run. Team believe this horse has what it takes to win a Guineas so be interesting to see what is produced here. Good barrier great jockey.
7. Perast: Went stupid speeds last start in the Golden Rose and paid the price. Best on previous runs not good enough.
8. Eclair Sunshine: Very good patient ride by Bayliss last start and got a run at the right times but just found one too good. Can run well again.
10. Levendi: Two starts two wins in easier grades on softer tracks. Testing material.
12. Barney Allen: Hard to suggest today on the first up run at Geelong and may be short of what is required on previous prep runs also.
Comments: We have to expect Perast to push the tempo again today which will set the race right up for Royal Symphony. This isn’t a one horse race though with Invader, Summer Passage, Muraahib, Kementari and Eclair Sunshine all having legitimate claims in the race. At the prices, Muraahib deserves another chance.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 8
Startegy: Muraahib E/W
Caulfield Race 7 – 1800m – Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes
1. Hartnell: Brave effort first up behind Humidor when Hey Doc just set a crazy stupid tempo which won’t be applied in this race today. Up to 1800m more suitable and he really does look to get an easy lead or sit outside of Gailo Chop if required. I hope they ride him positive today.
2. Black Heart Bart: Outside barrier today but getting up to the distances where he is expected to struggle more than his bread and butter 1400m type races. Will slot in well for a good run.
3. Gailo Chop: Liked the run of the horse last start all things considered sticking on for 4th. Has improvement to come but it’s a big ask to beat all these.
4. He’s Our Rokkii: Two runs this prep been well beaten. Needs to find some form and i’m not convicned here.
5. Inference: Two runs back this prep and beaten significant distances both times. Up to 1800m but needs further sleep.
6. Single Gaze: Two runs this prep down here and fairly beaten. Was a huge run last start but obviously has to improve again.
8. Bonneval: Looked terrible in the yard first up but found the tempo in the race to suit. Up to 1800m obviously suited and maps nicely from barrier 3.
9. Samovare: Short backup trying to win a way into a Caulfield Cup field. Going well but this is a big ask.
Comments: Keen today again on Hartnell in a race that lacks clear tempo and should be able to be controlled by Hartnell. Most importantly, if they go too hard early, he can take a sit further back.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2
Strategy: Hartnell – 4 units @ $2.15 to win
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes
1. It’s Somewhat: Goes well first up but best runs have been seen over the 1600-2000m range in the past so 1400m may just be a little short for his very best here with top weight.
2. Lucky Hussler: Liked what I saw from this horse first up. His best is clearly better than all in this from potential wise, but hasn’t shown that in a long while. 1400m ideal.
3. Scales of Justice: Huge run over 1200m first up and this horse is best over 1400m+. Arguably should have beat Redkirk Warrior first up if went straight. Wasn’t in best ground either on day. Hasn’t missed a place EVER for a reason. Group 1 winner.
4. Tosen Stardom: This horse is flying. I thought they would be stepping him up to 1600-1800m range where better suited towards a Cox Plate but they stay at 1400m. Barrier hurts his chances big time today but he is the X factor in the race.
5. Grande Rosso: Loved the first up and was set for that. Need to improve big time up to a G1 today but can’t dismiss his chances on what we have seen in the past.
7. Soverign Nation: Loved what we saw last start from this horse over 1400m. Really feel he could measure up to Group grade here and test them especially off 52kg.
8. Cannyescent: Disappointing run up in Sydney when they went around too fast for him. Stays at 1400m today and will get an easier time and be able to settle better. Place chance.
9. Santa Ana Lane: Flew home behind Brave Smash last start but that isn’t exactly the A grade form now. Has to improve.
10. Theanswermyfriend: Sensational ride by Williams last start at Flemington to lead all the way and put the turbo on final 800m to set it up for his easy win. Can run well here and can win on that last start run.
11. So Si Bon: Flashes home and doesn’t seem to win. Just 1 win from 16. Too big a step up.
13. Attention: Best from the past looked good enough to measure up in this grade with WFA-G1 4th behind Black Heart Bart… but hasn’t gone on with it.
14. Mr Sneaky: Not suited last start at Flemington to how the race shaped. This is a horse with a small burst of speed (200-300m) and he had to chase TheAnswerMyFriend from 500m out to be in it from the spot in run. Will need to be a superstar to win this and I don’t see it.
15. Royal Tudor: Not going well enough on first two runs this prep to be considered for a place.
16. Land of Plenty: Flew home for 3rd last start at Flemington in Group 2 company. Up in distance suitable here but still has to improve.
Comments: Scales of Justice clear top pick here but the price is very short after we locked in R8 All-In at start of the week. Tosen looks a main threat along with Theanswermyfriend while Sovereign Nation looks the blowout chance with Lucky Hussler.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Strategy: Scales of Justice to win. Sovereign Nation second pick at odds.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1100m – Le Pine Funeralds Handicap
1. Hellbent: Not the best run first up but was vetted at stalls. Can improve onwards from that run and go close here at weights.
2. Ability: Like the placement here better than the G1 on Friday night. Won 4 in a row and while he has a negative barrier, if they are able to swoop today, he is the one to beat.
4. Hellova Street: Top class horse that goes very well first up and at this distance range. 3 runs no wins at this track a concern but has to be considered a chance for sure.
5. Bassett: 3.3L off them in a Group 1 to end last prep and went close in a G3. Clearly proven in this grade of race and maps to get a perfect spot in run. If he has improved since last prep he should be winning.
8. We’ve Got This: Two runs this prep both horrible. Best in past still looks a little behind this for mine.
10. Ocea Embers: Tough test for this mare. Does run well at Caulfield is the positive. Barrier hurts.
11. Shaf: Good win to end last prep in easier at course and distance. Improvement required to beat these.
12. Badajoz: BM-94 winner heading into this and always runs consistently well. Testing material.
13. Rich Charm: Three wins in a row to end last prep including an open class win over Kens Dream. Can come into this with confidence today that he can measure up. Good barrier.
15. Divine Ten: Had enough chances in the past to prove his worth and while he is a good place chance, i can’t see the win.
16. Lizard Island: Injury got him and his return hasn’t given me any confidence.
17. Lord Van Costa: Nice enough run two back but clearly not going well enough to beat all of these. Pass.
Comments: Wide way to end the day. Ability top pick from Bassett. At the prices, i’m happy to play both.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 12
Strategy: Ability 1.25 units @ $5.50 to win. Bassett 0.75 units @ $12.00 to win.
