Welcome to The Profits form guide for the 2014 Caulfield Cup. Last year we were spot on the money with our top pick Fawkner winning at big odds and backing up the unmissable Turnbull run. The previous year saw a cup with a lot of early tempo set by Glencadam Gold and Voila Ici which made it a swoopers race with Dunaden claiming the victory in resounding fashion. Southern Speed won the 2011 Cup while Descarado for Gai Waterhouse took it out in 2010 at big odds on a rain affected track. I will take you through the weather conditions, speedmaps and then finish off with a runner-by-runner analysis of the field. Of course, I will finish off by giving you my tips for the race. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!

Weather

One of the most important factor for any race. Owners of The Offer and to a lesser extent, Lucia Valentina, would have been praying during the week for the huge storms to somehow hit Melbourne, but they only made their way to Sydney. We are looking at a dry track on Saturday and a track with a rail out 6 that could be anything… but generally a rail that plays fair.

Speedmaps

The most important tool for any race is understanding where each horse is expected to be during the run of the race and on previous data, determining how the race will be run by those out the front. Instead of predicting where each horse will position this year, I have given to my best estimation where each horse could settle during the run without surprise.

Caulfield Cup 2014

#1. Admire Rakti
Top weight. Hasn’t won a race since Feb 2013. Did beat home Bande two runs back as well. Best runs have been on Good tracks and has been competing in Group company the last 11 runs. Only win of those was 3400m Group 3.  Sits midfield to a little further back in runs. Looks a true tough staying type but is wanting the 3200m of the Melb Cup it seems.
Pros: Consistent. Run top 4 in four of last 6 runs. Can carry weight. Will appreciate a strong tempo.
Cons: Looking for further based on last prep targets.

#3. Green Moon
Don’t dismiss this old warhorse. Ran home very well in the Makybe Diva when just 2.9L off Dissident and Fawkner. Didn’t get tested last start in the Turnbull. The key to this bloke is they push this guy forward when they feel he can win a race and this is such a race. Barrier 6 and Chad Schofield, he will be making sure the Internationals don’t get away with any cheap sectionals and he is going to appreciate the 57kg today, the lowest weight has has seen in more than 10 runs.
Pros: Barrier. Track condition. Mapping. Class
Cons: 6 runs at track for 1 placing.

#4. Sea Moon
Showed enough last start to suggest he has returned with enough fitness to be competitive. Won 4 from 7 at this distance in the past and last prep won at this track and distance in the Herbert Power, in a much easier race. Horrible barrier draw though with 21 and maps very far back in the run. You may spot him stopping for a chicko roll from the Train Station with how wide he probably will be coming into the straight. Not sure he is good enough on what we have seen since coming over here to win this.
Pros: Good record at course and distance and track condition.
Cons: All runs in Australia don’t rate high enough to win this. Maps to sit very far back.

#6. The Offer
Clear best runs on record have been on rain affected tracks or further distances. Hasn’t placed in three runs this prep and while all the runs have been ‘okay’, I haven’t been impressed at all. Up to 2400m a positive but good track expected which for mine destroys his chances. Barrier 19 also doesn’t help the cause either. Interesting to look back to last prep and actually decide how classy the runners were that the horse had to beat.
Pros: up to 2400m today.
Cons: Barrier 19. Dry track.

#7. Seismos
Last start Group 3 winner at Newbury in the UK over Willing Foe + Red Cad. Group 1 winner in Germany and best runs have clearly been on Good or Dead tracks which we will get. Positions close to the speed and isn’t put off rolling forward to lead it up either. Last two big wins have seen the horse actually make a move as the tempo slowed to get to the front. Handles a turn extremely well which is important for Caulfield and stays for days. Very under-estimated horse considering the class and mapping. Not 100% sold on barrier 1 as the ‘best’ place for the horse to be, but as long as jumps well, maps to lead or just be off the lead.
Pros: Best runs seem to come 1st up and this is his best distance range and track condition
Cons: Hasn’t won in a race of this class

#8. Hawkspur
Won three runs back at Randwick leading start to finish on a heavy track. Two back then settled midfield and boxed on well but well beaten that day. Last start in the Turnbull ridden from the back and wasn’t really impressive at all. Doesn’t win or even place out of turn and has just 1 win to name in past 24 months which was the 1600m heavy win. Expect them to be on-pace at least today form a very positive barrier 9.
Pros: Barrier 9. Forward position. Damien Oliver riding.
Cons: Good track surface (hasn’t placed on one in last 6 runs)

#9. Junoob
Best ridden off the pace and best runs have been on good surfaces so conditions suit today. Won last two races beating home some ‘okay’ company, but this is certainly a step up. Tough win last start will prepare him well for this, but barrier 15 makes it a incredibly tough task to get the right run at the weights to beat all of these home.
Pros: Winning form. Track condition to suit.
Cons: Barrier. Up in class again. Melbourne Way.

#10. Moriarty
Best form has been shown on Good tracks. Goes well either way which is a positive today but doesn’t win out of turn or out of class. Run last start over again and doesn’t beat home Rising Romance again. Progressing nicely but this does look a step beyond him even from barrier 7.
Pros: Good barrier. Maps well. Good track condition.
Cons: Never measured up in similar class to this. 55kg looks a touch harsh on previous form. New jockey.

#11. Who Shot TheBarman
Won two in a row over 2000m and 2520m at Flemington. Had the race won with 200m to go last start over similar distance, so the shorter straight today shouldn’t be an issue. Barrier 16 a significant disadvantage for getting a positive enough position at midfield or better. Won 5 from 7 on a Good track surface. Group 1 winner, but last two runs were against second raters.
Pros: Winning form. Won very well last start. Good track conditions expected.
Cons: Barrier. Up in class. Glen Boss riding.

#12. Dear Demi
Settled further forward last start in the Caulfield Stakes. Was in the right position and just boxed on without showing anything to impress. Much better record on dead than Good surfaces a massive issue and maps to need a lot of luck in the run. Needs to improve significantly on last start and will be praying for a bit of rain.
Pros: Can go forward or back in run from barrier. Right distance.
Cons: Tricky barrier. Need sting out of the ground to find best.

#13. Stipulate
Never won at close to this distance previously. Good enough win first up but since then hasn’t measured up in this type of company. Barrier 5 ensures he will map to have every chance, but i’m not sure that he will stay the distance or be good enough to measure up here.
Pros: Barrier. Good track condition (only won on this).
Cons: Never won at distance. Never won in this class.

#14. Lidari
All four runs this prep have been impressive. He is a horse who doesn’t win out of turn but always gives his all. Looked home in the Turnbull and fought to the line hard to hold off Brambles, but Lucia Valentina got the luck by getting a clear run to the line. Has won at this distance previously. Barrier 4 is the key today. Maps to get almost the best run of the race just off the leaders to have a shot at them late. Will look the winner at some point in the straight.
Pros: Barrier. Won at distance. Solid prep.
Cons: Hasn’t won this prep. Hasn’t run this distance in a long time.

#15. Lucia Valentina
Notched up her first career win on a Good surface last prep (also first ever placing) and the sectionals were sensational. I believe she will appreciate any extra rain between now and then though and would be preferring a dead surface. Up from 2000m to 2400m today is certainly ideal and coming in with just 53kg off what we have seen this prep, it’s obvious why she is favourite. Gets back in the runs and will hope like the last two years that there is pace on our front. Last start positioned further forward than previously from barrier 5 and with barrier 12 today (will get taken into 10) I’d be expecting her to be pushed to get a spot similar to what Fawkner has last year 3/4 way back in the pack.
Pros: Has a 500m sprint like none other in the race. Low weight.
Cons: Will be a long way back coming to the turn. Been racing on longer straights this prep.

#16. Rising Romance
Three runs in this prep without a win but last start should have got the win. This is much harder than that though. Did win the ATC Oaks last prep but I maintain Lucia Valentina was the run of the race and Rising Romance won it via mapping. Barrier 17 was a horrible draw for this mare and off 53kg, I think others are better suited today. Best runs seen with sting out of the ground.
Pros: 53kg. Up in distance.
Cons: Best runs with sting out of ground. Poor barrier.

#17. Big Memory
Low weight in the race, Big Memory won well enough at course and distance in the Hebert Power last start, but didn’t beat much at all really. Similar weight here and barrier 20, very hard to see him getting a positive position in running with ease.
Pros: Low weight.
Cons: Up in class. New jockey. Poor barrier.

#19. Brambles
Won well two back with 60kg beating Big Memory and meets much better at the weights. Last start in the Turnbull was bold boxing on for 3rd but Lidari toughed it out better. Meets Lidari worse off at the weights. Maps okay.
Pros: Won at distance previously. Weighted well. Decent barrier.
Cons: Has to improve again.

#20. Araldo
Ran 3rd last start in The Metrop but was never a chance of winning. Will be very far back here today and has never gone close in this class of race which is a big step up from the Metrop this year. Bad barrier.
Pros:
Cons: Bad barrier. Settle near rear. Not classy enough

#21. Unchain  My Heart
Last win was at Flemington over 3200m. 6 starts 0 wins at track for only 1 win which was this prep when 3L 3rd in a much much much easier race. Since then hasn’t ever looked the winner.
Pros: Likes a firm track
Cons: Well outclassed in this race.

#22. Renew
Potential to lead this race but from barrier suggest sits midfield to front. Won at Newmarket two preps back at this distance but shown nothing of that quality since and off first up run very hard to have.
Pros: Barrier
Cons: 4th Emergency for a reason. Outclassed

The Key Chances

In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of four categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances.

High Chance

Lidari
Lucia Valentina
Seismos
Admire Rakti
Brambles

Medium Chance

Who Shot TheBarman
Hawkspur
The Offer
Rising Romance
Junoob

Low Chance

Green Moon
Moriarty
Sea Moon

Minimal Chance

Big Memory
Stipulate
Araldo
Renew
Unchain My Heart

Caulfield Cup 2014 Tips

Top Pick – Lucia Valentina

She didn’t map well last start in the Turnbull and still found a way to get the win with an explosive turn of foot. The speedmap is quite unclear for this race today and I have the % saying there will be a tough early sectional set which will give her every chance to win this. Needs luck to get a run at the right time and I wouldn’t be backing her before seeing if the backmarkers are making up ground at the track on the day.

Best Roughie – Seismos

$40 into $30 since the barrier draw. Seismos will either push forward to lead it up or get the perfect run just off the speed. Very tough European stayer who likes to roll into races. If he gets the right sectionals all the way around, he will be leading to the turn and packs an explosive punch on a firm surface.

Top 10

Lucia Valentina
Lidari
Seismos
Admire Rakti
Green Moon
Rising Romance
Brambles
Who ShotTheBarman
Hawkspur
Junoob

Well that is it! Please share any feedback with us on Twitter @TheProfitsComAu and remember to come back for more racing previews each main racing day of the Spring Racing carnival! It is important to note that tips MAY change on the day due to how the track is playing and any sudden changes in weather conditions (this is Melbourne remember!). Don’t settle for second best with your odds. Look around for Promotions (there will be plenty, I will mention them in my full card preview tomorrow.”

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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