Welcome to The Profits form for the 2013 Caulfield Cup. Last year we saw a cup with a lot of early tempo set by Glencadam Gold and Voila Ici which made it a swoopers race with Dunaden claiming the victory in resounding fashion. Southern Speed won the 2011 Cup while Descarado for Gai Waterhouse took it out in 2010 at big odds on a rain affected track. I will take you through the weather conditions, three scenario speedmaps and then finish off with a runner-by-runner analysis of the field. Of course, I will finish off by giving you my tips for the race. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!

Weather

Probably the most important factor for any race. Thursday saw some heavy patches of rain throughout the day but overall there wasn’t much rain recorded at the track. Weather on Friday is expected to be fine and Saturday will be much warmer with a Dead track expected early in the card improving to a Good track later in the card.

Speedmaps

The most important tool for any race is understanding where each horse is expected to be during the run of the race and on previous data, determining how the race will be run by those out the front. While you would normally only produce one speedmap, but I have come up with three due to the expected leader having missed the start two of it’s last five runs and the high probability that we could see runners sitting three wide for more than half the race.

If you can’t make out the runners, click on the speedmap for a higher resolution version that is easy to read.
You can also view Dominic Bernie’s speedmap here.

Caulfield Cup 2013

1. Manighar 58kg (Barrier 11)
Not much I can say really. Ridden 3 wide in the Turnbull after fast early sectionals. Fell out of it VERY quickly. Top weight here and doesn’t look to be able to handle the pace on in this race today.
Verdict: Won’t Win

2. Dandino 56.5kg (Barrier 19)
Landing in Australia after a successful US St Leger win (2716M) where blocked for runs and still winning easy over a group of horses who wouldn’t measure up here. I saw him first hand at Ascot and wasn’t very impressed. He ran 2nd in a very strange race where the favourite slipped and dropped the jockey and then the clear winner had a heart attack post-race.. so the form lines are very hard to match up. The winner’s form was lengths behind the favourite in the race who dropped the jockey. The horse who ran 3rd who previously beat Dandino is called Universal and wouldn’t be winning the cup. Until the barrier draw, Dandino was the best backed horse of the past month with Craig Williams taking the ride. Don’t be surprised to see money come on the day as most seasonal punters look towards Craig in the big ones. Will settle back in the run and need a lot of luck.
Verdict: Needs luck. Win wouldn’t shock, but runners first up in Australia don’t have a great record in general. Didn’t beat the best of the best back home and kept finding one too good most runs. I expect a few too good here as well.

3. Ethiopia 56.5kg (Barrier 14)
First two runs this prep were sub-par. Hasn’t been seen since 21 Sept. Seems to be poorly weighted and has to improve about 5-6 lengths on last run. 4th in Cox Plate when surprised many and went out the front due to a lack of a front runner in the race. That run last year suggests has the ability if up to it, but haven’t seen it at all this prep. Barrier doesn’t help or hinder.
Verdict: Not going well enough this prep to win. Could put in a battle to run top 6 if at best.

4. Waldpark 56kg (Barrier 8)
Three runs this prep. First run when forward actually ran on well. 2nd up wasn’t so good. Third up was very heavy with alot of weight and ran poorly. Hard to have at the weights.
Verdict: Poorly weighted and I couldn’t see a win in this runner.

5. Glencadam Gold 55.5kg (Barrier 6)
Very close 2nd behind Moriarty and in front of Masked Marvel up in Sydney two back when Berry Riding. Berry stayed up in Sydney for the Turnbull and Duric gave GG an average ride at best. This horse has a 400-500m sprint maximum and he dropped the anchor at 800m which was just stupid. It not only screwed the chances of any front markers, it was just a bad move for the horse he was riding off such a hot early tempo. We saw in the Melbourne Cup last year that the horse off a slow tempo can go close. Was leading to the 200m due to slow enough early sectionals but did do an 800m sprint there as well. If Berry gets the ride and can somehow hold off from letting him go before the 400m, then he is actually in with a chance. The barrier draw was a BIG advantage for GG. If jumps well, won’t have to do too much to actually get the front which should mean Berry won’t have the horse over-racing. If misses the start, then from barrier 6 it is almost impossible to see GG finding a way to be out the front anytime during the race, which will mean a slower tempo in general (horse has no chance if misses the start)
Verdict: If given the perfect ride and a few behind are luckless, can go very close. Should be leading at the 200m if controls the tempo.

6. Mr Moet 55.5kg (Barrier 10)
Three runs this prep have been ‘just ok’ without showing much. Last start really did need to improve more than was shown. Has the ability to run on but looks poorly weighted today compared to others.
Verdict: Not going well enough to win

7. Fawkner 55kg (Barrier 12)
First runs this prep were only fair, but has been ridden more forward recently and is one of my favourites to take out the cup this year. Ran Happy Trails to a whisker in the Emirates last year and guess who won the Turnbull? Sectional wise, he matched it with Puissance De Lune and actually settled in running outside of him. Went 4 wide at the 600m when PDL went rails. Let down with a good run and went close. He and PDL were the only two who put on fast early sectionals and settled closer than midfield that ended up in the top 9 horses in the race. He is weighted ‘ok’ here today and off a slightly slower pace out front with him settling mid-to-front, he doesn’t get passed by the swoopers in this race!
Verdict: Maps very well from barrier 12 today. As long as gets clear running around the turn, looks a top hope to win this no matter the tempo.

8. Jet Away 55kg (Barrier 13)
Last prep won the Golden Mile over 1600m and backed that up with a win over Folding Gear in the Easter Cup G3. Did have a set back so return was slightly delayed (just mucus). Returned in Turnbull and ran a solid 7th. Last 4 sectional splits were all worse than Silent Achiever, yet has been one of the best backed runners. Can see improvement to come 2nd up but I am very concerned at how Jet Away loomed up to win but ‘fell in a hole’ about 100m out and got interference final 20m which cost half a length? I’m not sure Jet beats home Silent on that run but has the potential upside to win.
Verdict: Will need a stronger than average tempo to be run out front. If finds a few lengths improvement on last start and runs out the full 2400m, is in with a shot. Not for me though.

9. Kelinni 55kg (Barrier 1)
Drew the inside barrier for the Cup. Backing up off three previous runs which were sub-par. Nothing like the runs from previous prep. Will need luck to get out from the barrier on the rails and just isn’t going well enough to win this.
Verdict: Not going well enough this prep. Can’t win.

10. Moriarty 55kg (Barrier 18)
Coming into this with some solid enough form. Won the Brisbane Cup last prep over 2400m and this prep beat home Glencadam Gold and Masked Marvel in the Hill Stakes. Last start was unlucky when blocked for runs in The Metrop and probably should have won. Outside barrier hurts, but could sit further forward than mapped and can’t be dismissed from being a chance to win.
Verdict: I think Moriarty is going well enough this prep to threaten, but i’m not sure he can beat home every one of these runners. Place chance.

11. My Quest For Peace 55kg (Barrier 4)
Ran well enough in this last year when hit the front, but was claimed to finish 5th. Between then and now hasn’t finished better than 7th in five runs. First up this prep in the Memsie was far back and didn’t really get given much of a belting to go. Last start in the Underwood not suited by slow track and was far back on a slow pace. We really haven’t seen any cards shown from this runner and there is a little talk around about his chances. Major issue today is a new jockey on board but gets every chance from barrier 4.
Verdict: Unknown. A bit of word around about this one. No form worth following but hasn’t been pushed and barrier means could sneak a very good run.

12. Hawkspur 54.5kg (Barrier 16)
A good horse who won what can be considered some easy group races up in Queensland over 2000-2400m. Returned this prep and didn’t measure up over the 1400m in good company and similar two back in the George Main (did have a handy win in the Chelmsford in much easier company). In the Turnbull sat back and hugged the rail for luck. Was blocked for runs when finishing off super weaving through traffic. He certainly comes in well at the weights and has firmed into outright favourite for good reason. Drifted after barrier draw getting 16. There is word around they could push a little further forward today which I suspect gets Hawkspur caught 3-wide.
Verdict: The obvious favourite. Last start finished strongly coming home. Will settle more forward than last start and look what happened with Long John last weekend being ridden more forward than his previous run. Outside barrier means won’t be blocked for runs on the rail at least. Can win. Looks under the odds though.

13. Julienas 54.5kg (Barrier 15)
Got the nod for the final spot in the race over the international first emergency runner Forgotten Voice. Last prep won the Sky High and then Manion Cup over 2400m (didn’t beat much). This prep has progressed solidly with a strong 3rd in the King Town, winning the C Stephen over 2400m and then lead The Metrop all the way before Seville snuck back on the rail to pinch it in the final 20 metres. Will be going forward and won’t be beaten off easy.
Verdict: Game as any horse. Will be there rounding the turn and will be letting down. Expect a few to pass him though. Could place.

14. Mr O’Ceirin 54.5kg (Barrier 20)
You know he has been my spec from a long way out. $201 was offered and taken. $151 when we put it up as a early get on on the website and is now around $40 after an outside barrier. He won five back VERY well at Moonee Valley with arrogance and then won the Grafton Cup when doing so much work all throughout. After a freshen up went close in the Heatherlie beaten 0.1L on the line after covering significantly more ground than the winner who got very lucky. Last start Bossy took the front and was never getting run down winning with ease. The form last prep behind Folding Gear who ran 7th in the Cup last year and ran Jet Away to 0.3L last prep before that is strong as well. He comes in off a very handy weight and maps nicely. As long as the tempo isn’t too hard out front, he will hit the lead at some point and will be very hard to get past. He can lead this up if required. He was never expected to win the Turnbull and infact when the ground came up good, he was never going to even go close. The early sectionals were too fast.. and Glencadam Gold was given a stupid run out front and dropped the anchor at the 800m mark setting up a bad tempo that was never going to suit any of the runners who had already done so much work early. He can still win but he is calling out for a dead track or wetter.
Verdict: On a dead track off a reasonable tempo, he can show a turn of foot not seen in the previous run. Can win if gets the race run to suit and has luck. Odds to seem about right though.

15. Silent Achiever 54.5kg (Barrier 5)
A little disappointing in the first start of her prep this time around. Didn’t show a great deal in the Memsie and didn’t threaten in the Underwood with a few showing a bit more. Hasn’t seen a weight below 56.5kg for a fair while! Put in some solid late sectionals in the Turnbull but all 4 sectionals from Hawkspur were significantly better. Has shortened after a good barrier draw but needs favours to win.
Verdict: Weighted very well. Is a winning home but has certainly come into a price that is hard to back. Could roll a little further forward from barrier 5 than expected which would help.

16. Royal Decent 54kg (Barrier 3)
Came on very well last prep and goes best over 2000m. Won the AdrianKnox painlessly in a fairly average field and then won the ATC Oaks by 10L on a heavy track. To be fair, the runners behind were not real wet trackers. First up this prep over 1300m ran 2nd to Hidden Kisses, 2nd up ran 0.6L 3rd behind Bello and Malavio in the Tramway before running 2nd to Streama in the George Main. It wasn’t a surprise to see a senior runner like Streama getting the better of Royal Descent. Went forward early in the Turnbull but ended up positioning midfield. Late sectional were significantly worse than Fawkner’s who ran almost identical sectionals first 400m. This certainly can be put down to smashing into Tuscan Fire and not being ridden out. An absolute forgive run but needs a better ride to win. Barrier 3 today is an important factor for this horse.. will need a bit of luck if does sit the rail like we have mapped.. but is weighted very well.
Verdict: Maps and weighted to win with a bit of luck.

17. Tuscan Fire 53.5kg (Barrier 2)
Won the Mornington Cup so gets a run off a very low weight. On previous form could have been going very close but apart from first up over the 1400m, it is hard to say he is at his best. Is suited by the barrier and more importantly the track conditions. You can simply ignore the Turnbull run where he was given 0 chance. Was 3-4 wide the WHOLE trip and got smashed by Mr O’Ceirin/Royal Descent in the straight when letting down (would have finished a lot closer). I think he can be there at the finish if produces career best and gets every favour.
Verdict: Unknown factor. Most expect TF won’t measure up. I think you could see a very bold run.

18. Dear Demi 53kg (Barrier 22)
An eye-catching run behind It’s a Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel over the 1800m. Is proven over the Caulfield Cup distance as well. Runs this prep she has gone forward, but due to outside barrier she will be going back. Her BEST rating runs have been running on. If there is tempo on, she will be coming late. I really do hope they don’t go ALL the way to the back though and sit 3/4 back to give her a big chance. Weighted very well. Important to realise Williams didn’t ride her out last start when he knew she couldn’t win when done with her run 50m out.
Verdict: Massive odds and a blow out chance coming late if there is a strong tempo on.

19. Forgotten Voice 54.5kg (EMERG 1)
Won last start about 60 days ago in Group 3 company beating home some handy horses. Previous to that won well at Ascot. Had a issue with travel sickness which was a set back. Main goal is the Melbourne Cup.
Verdict: Even if gets a run, how many emergency runners have ever won after getting into the field? Set backs and runs that don’t really stack up with the tempo from overseas is hard to suggest a winner here.

20. Sneak A Peek 54kg (EMERG 2)
Won’t get a run.

22. Oasis Bloom 51.5kg (EMERG 3)
Won’t get a run.

The Key Chances

In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of four categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances. I know a few who will be on Jet Away and Dandino that will scoff at them being in the same pile as MQFP, Mr O or even GG…  but I think they all have chances if the right tempo and circumstances develop and with their racing styles I could never put them in the higher category.

High Chance

Fawkner
Hawkspur
Silent Achiever
Royal Descent
Dear Demi

Medium Chance

Dandino
Glencadam Gold
Jet Away
My Quest For Peace
Julienas
Mr O’Ceirin

Low Chance

Mr Moet
Moriarty
Tuscan Fire

Minimal Chance

Manighar
Ethiopia
Waldpark
Kelinni
Forgotten Voice
Sneak A Peek
Oasis Bloom

Caulfield Cup 2013 Tips

Top Pick – Fawkner

These races are all about getting the right spot in the run and giving your horse the best chance … no matter the tempo ran out front. Solzhenitsyn is a prime example in Group 1 company last week of a horse who speed mapped to win and did it well at the course. With this in mind, Fawkner’s last start run and sectionals were a stand out and he maps perfectly today no matter the tempo.

Best Roughie – Dear Demi

She was under the odds before the barrier draw when shorter than Fawkner around the totes. Drawing the outside barrier she has doubled and these odds are truly wrong. Trainer suggests they will be going back, but on the interview on TVN tonight I sensed they won’t be going ALL the way back and could be bluffing a little with tactics. Either way, she has been very strong the last two starts. The sectionals don’t lie and if she does go back, her best ratings are coming from the back.

Top 10

Fawkner
Royal Descent
Hawkspur
Dear Demi
Glencadam Gold
Jet Away
Silent Achiever
Dandino
Julienas
Mr O’Ceirin

Well that is it! Please share any feedback with us on Twitter @TheProfitsComAu and remember to come back for more racing previews each main racing day of the Spring Racing carnival! It is important to note that tips MAY change on the day due to how the track is playing and any sudden changes in weather conditions (this is Melbourne remember!). Don’t settle for second best with your odds. Look around for Promotions (there will be plenty, I will mention them in my full card preview tomorrow. Compare the best Caulfield Cup 2013 Odds at Best Odds.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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