The Caulfield Cup is Australia’s premier race outside of the Melbourne Cup. While many will argue the Cox Plate is 2nd in line, the Caulfield Cup is the race that kicks the carnival into full gear and provides a wider range of runners on a track which leads in better to the race that stops a nation.
Last year we saw a furious pace set which suited the swoopers with Dunaden running down Alcopop to take the victory. It’s funny how a simple bad barrier draw for two leaders can produce such a pace.
It has to be said that this year, there seems from this far out to be a lot less pace in the race with no clear front runners to speak of. That being said, this type of thing does produce a few surprises so it will be interesting to see what happens.
There are still a key lead up races that will determine the final market and who gets a run, but I have listed below a runner by runner review of how I think they are tracking along and what the next few weeks has in stall for them. I have also included their current allocated weights and whether they are guaranteed a run or need to win a race or simply just have a few not accept.
Feel free to @ me on Twitter (TheProfitsComAU) to ask about any other runner not listed and I will continue to add, remove and just to this list as we get closer to the date.
Hawkspur – 53kg – $5 – Guaranteed a run
A good horse who won what can be considered some easy group races up in Queensland over 2000-2400m. Returned this prep and didn’t measure up over the 1400m in good company and similar last start in the George Main (did have a handy win in the Chelmsford in much easier company). Was blocked for runs on the weekend when finishing off super weaving through traffic. He certainly comes in well at the weights and has firmed into outright favourite
Royal Descent – 52.5kg – $9 – Guaranteed a run
Came on very well last prep and goes best over 2000m. Won the AdrianKnox painlessly in a fairly average field and then won the ATC Oaks by 10L on a heavy track. To be fair, the runners behind were not real wet trackers. First up this prep over 1300m ran 2nd to Hidden Kisses, 2nd up ran 0.6L 3rd behind Bello and Malavio in the Tramway before running 2nd to Streama in the George Main. It wasn’t a surprise to see a senior runner like Streama getting the better of Royal Descent. Went forward early in the Turnbull but ended up positioning midfield. Late sectional were significantly worse than Fawkner’s who ran almost identical sectionals first 400m. This certainly can be put down to smashing into Tuscan Fire and not being ridden out. An absolute forgive run but needs a better ride to win the Cup.
Super Cool – 55kg – $14.5 – Guaranteed a run
Settled a little further back than I would like in his first two runs this prep and when you look at previous runs, can go a little further forward for the Caulfield Cup which should prove the difference. The Memsie run was a real eye catcher while the MV run was just an ignore for mine. Fairly disappointing all things considered in the Turnbull and the sectionals don’t look well for him either. Would need to position in first 6 in the Cup to have a chance on those statistics for mine. Drifted after run. Was ridden out and Royal Descents sectionals were similar when not ridden out final 200m.
Dandino (International runner) – 55kg – $12 – Guaranteed a run
Landing two weeks back after a successful US St Leger win (2716M), I saw him first hand at Ascot and wasn’t very impressed. He ran 2nd in a very strange race where the favourite slipped and dropped the jockey and then the clear winner had a heart attack post-race.. so the form lines are very hard to match up. The horse who ran 3rd who previously beat Dandino called Universal wouldn’t be winning the cup. Still waiting on more reports closer to the day to hear how he is travelling. Can’t see him starting below the $9 mark so better to wait and see if wanting on.
Silent Achiever – 53kg – $14 – Guaranteed a run
A little disappointing in the start of her prep this time around. Didn’t show a great deal in the Memsie and didn’t threaten in the Underwood with a few showing a bit more. Some of her best runs have been on wet tracks and she is a serious threat if the Melbourne rains come down having not seen a weight below 56.5kg for a fair while! Put in some solid late sectionals in the Turnbull but all 4 sectionals from Hawkspur were sigifnicaintly better. Has shortened but needs favours to win.
Jetaway – 53.5kg – $13 – Needs a bit of luck to get a run
In line for a run and hasn’t been seen since March when winning the Golden Mile over 1600m and backing that up with a win over Folding Gear in the Easter Cup G3. Did have a set back so return was slightly delayed (just mucus). Returned in Turnbull and ran a solid 7th. Last 4 sectional splits were all worse than Silent Achiever, yet has halved in quotes. Can see improvement to come but needs more than showing here at weights. Did loom up but run did die about 100m out and got interference final 20m which cost half a length? I’m not sure Jet beats home Silent on that run but is close.
Dear Demi – 51.5kg – $19 – Guaranteed a run
An eye-catching run behind It’s a Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel over the 1800m. Is proven over the Caulfield Cup distance as well. You would expect they will ride her correctly.. that is NOT LAST. Her price has come in after that Underwood run.. but I’m not sure you can take as much as most people are saying from that run with the sectionals ran out front. Off 51.5kg… she certainly comes into this with chances. Turn in the Turnbull was GREAT. Goes down 3kg, more than most here in the Cup. Important to realise Williams didn’t ride her out when he knew she couldn’t win when dying on a run 50m out. Surely they don’t go so early in the Cup and she is a blowout chance if gets favours like that run.
Fawkner – 53.5kg – $19 – Needs a bit of luck to get a run
Didn’t get a mention in my first write-up due to only fair first up runs this prep. Ran Happy Trails to a whisker in the Emirates last year and guess who won the Turnbull? Needs a fair bit of luck to actually get into the field but most likely does happen. Sectional wise, he matched it with Puissance De Lune and actually settlted in running outside of him. .Went 4 wide at the 600m when PDL went rails. Let down with a good run and went close. He and PDL were the only two who put on fast early sectionals and settled closer than midfield that ended up in the top 9 horses in the race. He only goes down 2kg for the Cup run compared to others down 3-4kg, but off a slightly slower pace out front, he doesn’t get passed by the swoopers in this race! Barrier draw important. A top cup hope if gets in.
Mr O’Ceirin – 53kg – $42 – Guaranteed a run
You know he has been my spec from a long way out. $201 was offered and taken. $151 when we put it up as a early geton on the website and is now into $30s out to $42s. He won five back VERY well at Moonee Valley with arrogance and then won the Grafton Cup when doing so much work all throughout. After a freshen up went close in the Heatherlie beaten 0.1L on the line after covering significantly more ground than the winner who got very lucky. Last start Bossy took the front and was never getting run down winning with ease. The form last prep behind Folding Gear who ran 7th in the Cup last year and ran Jet Away to 0.3L last prep before that is strong as well. He comes in off a very handy weight and as long as the barrier draw is kind, will be very hard to get past. He can lead this up if there is no clear front runner as well. He was never expected to win the Turnbull and infact when the ground came up good, he was never going to even go close. He has never won on a good track for a good track for a reason. He doesn’t handle them. The early sectionals were too fast.. and Glencadam Gold was given a stupid run out front and dropped the anchor at the 800m mark setting up a stupid tempo that was never going to suit any of the runners who had already done so much work early. He can still win.
Foreteller – 54.5kg – $40 – Guaranteed a run (query over if they run him though)
He reminds me alot of a horse called Shocking. Remember him? Was super gutsy winning the Makybe Diva beating home PDL. Actually out-tuffing him! Previous to that was very strong late in the Warwick Stakes. Looking for further this prep and is certainly in career best form. To see how good he is, look back to the Ranvet win over Fiveandahalfstar coming from the clouds. Ignore Underwood run where they were never going to make up enough ground. Suspect he needs a Good or Dead track. Can win if the pace is on. PDL has made his form look rock solid and it was crazy to have seen him drift to as high as $85 on Betfair after the Turnbull. He has 3rd Accepted even though he is still not 100% to be run here, he is in the field. Weighted to win it IMO.
Green Moon – 58kg – $32 – Guaranteed a run
Strong run in the Memsie without ever looking a threat when going back and then didn’t show much either in the Underwood. Expect he will sit further forward for the Caulfield Cup.. but top weight makes him not appeal one bit for mine. The Turnbull run will determine what form he really is in.
Ethiopia – 56.5kg – $42 – Guaranteed a run
First two runs this prep were sub-par. Hasn’t had a run since 21 Sept and won’t before the Cup. Seems to be poorly weighted and has to improve about 5-6 legnths on last run. 4th in Cox Plate last year suggests has the ability if up to it, but haven’t seen it at all this prep.
Bass Strait – 50kg – $65 – Need more weight to get a run
I actually wasn’t very impressed last start by the win. Did enough but didn’t go THAT much considering the weight and everything. Good horse, not good enough for this and does need luck to get a run. Drifted out from $40s to $65s. Very unlikely to get a run.
Seville – 55kg – $50- Guaranteed a run
Ran 2nd in the Turnbull last year and then got injured. Returned this prep with 3 average runs then won the Metrop sneaking back on the rail. Wasn’t the best form race to go off and is actually not very well weighted against more progressive types here, but can sit forward and will improve from last start.
Sea Moon – 57kg – $85 – Guaranteed a run
Failed in the Makybe Diva and ran 2nd last in the Underwood. Is obviously looking for further than this and does get the correct distance for the Caulfield Cup. Was a ‘solid’ run in the Bart Cummings but does the horse win this off 57kg on that run? Not in a million years. Has to find another 4-5 lengths on that and most likely doesn’t get a start so the stable can try get better runners in.
Masked Marvel 54.5kg – $34 – Guaranteed a run
First up run didn’t tell us much but 2nd run was strong behind Mariarty and Glencadam Gold in the Bacardi Hill Stakes when drifting to the inside rail. Is certainly looking for all of the 2400m and looks decent odds this far out. Ran a close 2nd to Horonorius up in Sydney which tells me MM is still a fair way from being 100% fit. Is better over long and not so sure this is the best distance. I can’t see MM winning this. Can see Melbourne Cup.
Glencadam Gold – 54.5kg – $90 – Guaranteed a run
Very close 2nd behind Moriarty and infront of Masked Marvel up in Sydney two back when Berry Riding. Berry stayed up in Sydney for the Turnbull and Duric gave GG an average ride at best. This horse has a 400-500m sprint maximum and he dropped the anchor at 800m which was just stupid. It not only screwed the chances of any front markets, it was just a bad move for the horse he was riding off such a hot early tempo. We saw in the Melbourne Cup last year that the horse off a slow tempo can go close. Was leading to the 200m due to slow early sectionals but did do an 800m sprint there as well. If Berry gets the ride and can somehow hold off from letting him go before the 400m, then he is actually in with a chance.
Tuscan Fire – 52kg – $120 – Guaranteed a run
Won the Mornington Cup so gets a run off a very low weight. On previous form could have been going very close but apart from first up over the 1400m, it is hard to say he is at his best. Still a long time between now and then.. but it is hard to see that changing I hate to say. I would suggest he needs a Good track and more importantly, has to be ridden out the front which hasn’t happened this prep. You may see this tactic changed going forward and off 52kg could steal an easy lead. Down 4.5kg for the CC after the Turnbull run where he was given 0 chance. Was 3-4 wide the WHOLE trip and got smashed by Mr O’Ceirin/Royal Descent in the straight when letting down (would have finished a lot closer). I’m just not sure what their plan is with this horse. I hope they sit further forward. I think he can win if produces career best and gets every favour.
Simenon (International runner) – 54kg – $80 – Guaranteed a run
Three runs this year for a 4th, 2nd and 2nd.. last two results in G1 and G2 company behind Estimate and Ahzeemah who are very classy horses. The issue is this horse has never actually won a Group race. Just keeps going close but never winning. Best is over the longer distances and is more a Melbourne Cup horse.
Kesampour (International runner) 52.5kg – $34 – NOT guaranteed a run but with a bit of luck should get a run
Hadn’t been seen since 2012 until first two runs this prep. Won a G2 over a similar distance but after that failed to place. Did win first four ever races. First up didn’t show too much but did run on well last start behind Mr O’Ceirin. Could qualify.
Waldpark (International runner) 54.5kg – $85 – Guaranteed a run
Two runs this prep. First run when forward actually ran on well. 2nd up wasn’t so good. Wouldn’t be giving up just yet but doesn’t look to be the top class here. *update* Ran poorly on weekend and has doubled in quote. Hard to see at the weights.
Quintessential 52.5kg – $70 – Guaranteed a run
One to watch out for. Didn’t measure up last prep back home but word is that she is going very well. First run this prep will tell how well that is. I would suggest she is best over the 2400m+ on a wet track. In the Turnbull boxed on on fairly when out the front off the crazy pace. Need to improve significantly off that run. $44 out to $70 after run.
Forgotten Voice – 53kg – $110 – Should get a run
Won last start about 60 days ago in Group 3 company beating home some handy horses. Previous to that won well at Ascot. Had a issue with travel sickness so had to be put into a private barn when getting off. Get the feeling Caulfield Cup may only be a lead up for the Melbourne Cup. Drifted from $75 out to $110 as well.
Manighar – 56.5kg – $100 – Guaranteed a run
Not much I can say really. Ridden 3 wide in the Turnbull after fast early sectionals. Fell out of it VERY quickly. Hard to see the win off that off these weights as well.
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All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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