Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 25 February 2017. The big day is here with the Blue Diamond Stakes and Oakleigh Plate upon us! This is one of my favourite race days and i’ll be on course to cover it all via Twitter. This looks a strong card overall to bet into and i’ve got 5 bets i’m putting on throughout the day. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Farson – 4 units @ $2.15 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Jameka – 2.5 units @ $4.20 to win
Other Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Black Heart Bart – 2.5 units @ $2.00 to win
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 9 – Thames Court – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$1.91
Best Value
Caulfield Race 1 – Assign 0.5 unit Each-Way @ $15/$3.80 (3-places paid with Betfair – taking the SP price which i expect to be $3.80 range)
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – Ladbrokes Mornington Cup Prelude
1. Pilote D’essai: Intention to lead advised to stewards. Won’t have an easy time taking it though with Assign and Goldstream both expected to contest for the lead. If Bayliss starts going too slow, i can guarantee Assign will be pushed on to up the tempo to make this a true staying test. Finished off last prep proving to be good enough in this class from on speed beating home some horses that probably wouldn’t measure up here. Has to improve onwards against some better types, but has the ability.
2. Assign: I’m surprised by the price they are betting here. Assign’s last three runs at this course have been over 2000-2400m with a Group 3 win, Listed win and a 2nd to Melbourne Cup winner Almandin. The horse is rock hard fit and ready to go by all reports (was nominated for races the whole past month) and rates more than good enough to win this.
3. Boom Time: Disappointing run at Gold Coast last start when was beaten home by Stratum Star, Feltre and Payroll. Wasn’t suited so far back in run but most importantly, I felt the horse was lost without a rail to follow home. Back to 2000m and up in class. Can measure up.
4. Goldstream: Has been going through the runs this prep building into a win and found it last start over what in my opinion has proved to be handicap level at best horses. This is another step up in grade for mine and this is a very competitive race. He is good enough to run well here but has a lot to prove again for mine. Won’t get an easy time out front today.
5. Second Bullet: Backed as if he would run a bolter first up and that he did thrashing a good field over 1800m. Big query over the horses second up form though and similar with this stables second up form. The faster they go the better suited he will be.
6. Vengeur Masque: Didn’t quite make the grade last prep but obviously measured up to be a nice type of horse at this level. 2nd (beaten 10L) in Group 3 company last start behind Francis of Assisi and ran 3.5L off Almandin three runs prior. Best is over further.
7. Master Zephyr: Close but missed two back behind Goldstream and then last start very fairly and well beaten in the Colac Cup. Hard to suggest for the win.
8. Adirondack: Ran well through the line two back over 1400m in easier company. Last start over 1700m got well back and didn’t show a lot. Hard to suggest in this company.
Comments: I think Goldstream and Boom Time are both under the odds today. Second Bullet is a horse I also want to take on with the profile up into this grade. The two key chances appear to be Pilote D’essai and Assign is the big value in the race. Betting wise, I just can’t pass up on the E/W price offered for Assign heading on towards an Australian Cup run.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Assign 0.5 unit Each-Way @ $15/$3.80 (3-places paid with Betfair – taking the SP price which i expect to be $3.80 range)
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Zeditave Stakes
1. Peacock: Very disappointing last start. Race wasn’t run to suit one bit but he failed to fire. Reports he was dour and blinkers go on to try and do the trick. Forgive and rate as one of the key chances here at big odds.
2. Benz: Strong trial heading into this prep. Won a 100k race last prep over 1200m at MV beating a strong type in Ken’s Dream before failing the next 3 starts in similar company. Best is good enough.
3. Derryn: Strong return off a slow speed race. Previous prep ran very well in the Blue Sapphire 3rd to Flying Artie. Will get a nice quiet run throughout and be asked the question at the right time. Goes well here and good enough… remember 0.3L behind Hey Doc last start.
4. Gratwick: Got the easy lead last start at MV and won well over some average types. Big step up in class but has the ability to run well from on speed.
5. Into Orbit: Proved to be a very nice type of horse last prep. Good win first up and then last start off the slow tempo out front found one too good. Has to improve onwards here but obviously has claims.
6. Violate: 0.1L 2nd to Peacock last prep at course over 1400m. Best runs over further and doesn’t look well suited today first up in this grade.
7. Hard Promise: Looked a nice enough type winning two in a row in much easier races but last start was well beaten over 1600m.. straight back to 1200m here.. not a disadvantage but obviously has to improve.
8. Yulong Yongxing: Terang winner first up. Ran nicely enough last start over in Adelaide but ran 4th as $1.80 favourite. Step up again here. Has ability but has to obviously improve.
10. Apiata: Strong maiden winner two preps back at Ballarat. Last prep was nice enough first up before a poor run second up. Horse has ability but has to show it.
Comments: Two to three main chances here with Derryn the top pick. Peacock could be given a chance again at the odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Derryn to win. Also back Peacock.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1800m – Heritage Finance Caulfield Autumn Classic
1. Trenchant: Given a horrible ride last start and was probably a few lengths better a run than it seemed. Best in past shown in soft tracks.
2. Farson: Won three of four this prep including two strong wins the past two starts at Caulfield and Moonee Valley. Up to 1800m and stable have no issues with the horse running out a strong 1600m. This will be a test of who the best horse really is. Weighted to win.
3. Cliff Hanger: Proved to be a nice enough horse winning at Sandown last start, just. Previous start 2nd to Oak Door also a nice form line. Unproven and untested off a genuine tempo and over 1800m.
4. Electric Charlie: Strong run last start at Moonee Valley behind Farson but poorly weighted today. Has the staying ability and maps to get a very nice run.
5. Bold Presence: Pakenham winner last start over 2000m and step back in class is no issue.. but this is another step up obviously. Respect but hard to rate in this grade.
6. Captain Rhett: Well backed last start at Pakenham in maiden grade into favourite and found one too good. Obviously a nice horse but never tested over a strong distance yet.
7. Callisto Moon: Echuca maiden winner. Up to 1800m.. wasn’t a fast time last start. No thanks.
8. Domesticated: Maiden winner last prep. First up poor over 1400m and last start fairly beaten in much easier over 1600m. Has to improve lengths to win this i’d suggest.
9. Elsaray: Maiden winner two back and failed in CL1 grade last start from the front off a slow tempo. Struggle to see the improvement.
10. Parallel World: Couldn’t beat home many the last two starts. Not here.
11. Miss Strathallan: Maiden winner last start over Captain Rhett by 3L. Obviously has ability and the times run were sound. Looks a main threat to the favourite. A long way back is the issue.
12. Bint El Bedu: Maiden winner over further. Has some ability but clearly has to improve again here.
Comments: Hard to go past Farson here at the price on offer.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Farson – 4 units @ $2.15 to win
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Polytrack Angus Armanasco Stakes
1. Jennifer Lynn: Had her chance first up when fairly beaten at Flemington down the straight and last start found a few too good from off the speed at course over 1200m. Step up to 1400m is obviously ideal, but this is a step up in grade again and she has to be at her very best to be competitive against Fuhryk.
2. Fuhryk: Smashed them last start at course over 1200m. First start over 1400m ever today is a big question and testing material but from barrier 7 she maps perfectly to get a quiet run 1 off the rails and will be hard to hold out late. We will know at the turn just how well she is traveling.
3. Ellicazoom: Measured up to Group level over at Ascot last prep. First up over 1200m beaten favourite at Pinjarra on a soft track. Had to travel by plane and two weeks between runs… have to think that will have taken a bit out of the horse for a 2nd up run in this class. Good enough to run well.
4. Oregon’s Day: Ran home well enough 2nd to Fuhryk last start at course over 1200m. Should appreciate the step up in distance but is certainly untested. Has ability.
5. Smart As You Think: Showed her best over 2000m+ but is handy over 1600m. 1400m looks short of what she will find her very best at. Have to take on today.
6. Zunbaqa: Out the back last start over 1200m when slow out. Goes better over the 1400m on previous preps runs and will improve onwards from on speed. Goes best on soft tracks.
7. Bella Sorellastra: 1400m winner last prep in much easier. Measured up over 1600m with what was her best run. Needs to position closer than last today.
8. Savanna Amour: Every chance last start over the 1200m coming off some solid runs. 1400m looks a bit of an unknown and while I think she will run well, i prefer others to win this.
9. Inspired Estelle: Strong 2YO winner but last two preps has found nothing on the track. To be fair first up though was 4-wide and still ran 4th. I couldn’t suggest the win but am expecting a better run.
10. Didnt Even Kiss Me: CL1/Bm-60 winner put into the deep end here. No.
11. Intrice’s Reward: Couldn’t place in CL1 last start. 4th at course and distance two back but even on that has to improve lengths.
Comments: The price on offer for Fuhryk is backable for a horse with this potential. The main dangers appear to be Ellicazoom, Bella Sorellastra who looks the value of the race and Jennifer Lynn who Weir believes is going to win the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Fuhryk to win
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – italktravel Futurity Stakes
1. Black Heart Bart: Smashed them last start in the CF Orr. Stays at the same weights and distance and maps perfectly 1 out 1 back today. Hard to beat.
2. Lucky Hussler: Hugely disappointing run last start in the CF Orr after drifting in betting. Obviously better than that last start run and normally goes well at this track. If backed keep an eye on him. Blinkers off.
3. Turn Me Loose: Ran a blinding race last start and found one too good in Black Heart Bart. Will be on speed with Ecuador today and will be hard to get past once again.
4. Tosen Stardom: This is too short for the ex-Japanese horse.. but that won’t stop him running a cracking race. Was an eye-catcher first up last prep and will run well today.
5. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Old mate was no match for them in the Rubiton and even up to 1400m it’s hard to see him placing here. Take on.
6. Palentino: Continues to run very well and up in distance a further time is needed next start with a longer straight. Don’t dismiss but maps to not get the best run today.
7. Ecuador: Good front position win two back at Randwick and was no mug last start here behind Black Heart Bart. Will run well again but has to improve to win this.
8. He’s Our Rokkii: Fairly beaten last start but found the line well. Needs further and a lesser class at these weights to find his very best. Place chance.
9. Attention: An interesting nomination. Goes well at this distance and will appreciate the strong tempo with blinkers on… but the G2 winner needs to run better than we have seen it in the past.
Comments: Sensational price on offer today for Black Heart Bart. Maps perfectly and only a horse improving at least a length past him here today will get him beat. Suited by patterns of track today also.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Black Heart Bart – 2.5 units @ $2.00 to win
Caulfield Race 6 – 1800m – Crown Lager Peter Young Stakes
1. Stratum Star: Got the win last start at the Gold Coast in tough fashion over what looked a not so suitable 2200m with 61kg. WFA-G1 winner at Ascot two back over 1800m and steps back to WFA-G2 here. Ideally placed.
2. Awesome Rock: WFA-G1 winner over 2000m at Flemington last prep. Always runs well here at Caulfield but is 10 runs for 0 wins. Not bad first up over the 1400m but clearly goes better 2nd up on past runs also.
3. The United States: Beaten favourite the last two starts in G1 company. Previous start won a weak WFA-G2 race at Moonee Valley on a soft track. Never won at Caulfield.
4. Mourinho: Lame last start. Will go around huge odds in comparison to his ability, but i can’t have off a run like that. Bar plates off…
5. Almoonqith: WFA-G2 0.1L 2nd to finish last prep. Very best is over much further than this. Have to take on.
6. Exospheric: Goes okay enough first up. Hasn’t been within 3L of a win in 5 starts, but has obviously been in Caulfield Cups, Melbourne Cups and WFA Group racing in the UK behind top class horses. Best is good enough to measure up.
7. Tally: Decent enough return first up over the 1600m when 3rd behind Burning Front. Big step up in class but finds himself well in. Can run well but has to improve to actually win and not just run a place.
8. Tom Melbourne: Old mate looked to be bolting last start when held up for runs. I can’t see a massive amount of speed in the race which is a big negative for him taking a sit today. I think he will run well here and the grand final is to come at Flemington in the Aus Cup.
9. Humidor: Expected to sit further forward off the slow tempo. Will be interesting to see if he has the best final 600m in the race. Has obvious ability. Maps well from barrier.
10. Jameka: Loves a slow tempo and gets it here. Ran nicely in WFA-G1 as a lead in perfectly and up to a very suitable distance. Looks well over the odds for mine off 57kg from the barrier ridden more forward.
11. Real Love: Out the back and ran on okay last start at Caulfield behind Burning Front. Looking for further than this to find her very best but can run well.
Comments: I’m not a Jameka fan at all but I’ll back her when she is the right price. We did that in the Caulfield Cup and we will be doing that again today at the big price on offer.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Jameka – 2.5 units @ $4.20 to win
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Stakes
It’s been a long summer of racing but we are now down to the business end of the 2YO racing with the Blue Diamond upon us and the Golden Slipper just around the corner.
This 2017 Blue Diamond Stakes rates as one of the most open in recent memory with no ‘clear’ favourites unlike previous years. On ratings, there are several key chances with 6 runners being put up in single figures on final fields and I believe these ratings are generally all deserved.
This race, for mine, will come down to which horse is not just the best horse in the race, but the best positioned for the most economical run during the race. Adding to that, the horse will need to find clear running at the top of the straight.
The speed map for the race is very hard to figure out with several different moves available in the first 200m from different riders, so I have provided you below with four different educated guesses at how the speed map may just work out. Please note, with just the one turn, sitting 3-wide and even 4-wide is not as large a negative as you may think, but 4-wide and 4 back could see a horse have to travel 6-8 wide around the turn giving up lengths to much better positioned runners.
| Speed Map 1 —————> | ||||
| #17. Sheer Madness | #15 Roomooz | #7 Cao Cao | #1 Property | #5 Wait For No One |
| #8 Taking Aim | #13 Tulip | #9 Muraahib | #16 Blondie | #12 Formality |
| #6 Aspect | #4 Pariah | #10 Will’s Bid | #11 Catchy | |
| Speed Map 2 —————> | ||||
| #17. Sheer Madness | #15 Roomooz | #7 Cao Cao | #16 Blondie | #5 Wait For No One |
| #8 Taking Aim | #4 Pariah | #13 Tulip | #1 Property | #12 Formality |
| #6 Aspect | #9 Muraahib | #11 Catchy | ||
| #10 Will’s Bid | ||||
| Speed Map 3 —————> | ||||
| #17. Sheer Madness | #15 Roomooz | #7 Cao Cao | #1 Property | #5 Wait For No One |
| #8 Taking Aim | #4 Pariah | #11 Catchy | #16 Blondie | #12 Formality |
| #6 Aspect | #10 Will’s Bid | #9 Muraahib | #13 Tulip | |
| Speed Map 4 —————> | ||||
| #17. Sheer Madness | #7 Cao Cao | #1 Property | #16 Blondie | |
| #8 Taking Aim | #15 Roomooz | #10 Will’s Bid | #5 Wait For No One | |
| #6 Aspect | #11 Catchy | #13 Tulip | #12 Formality | |
| #4 Pariah | #9 Muraahib | |||
Catchy – $6 – Barrier 13 – Craig Williams
Race favourite and the pick of top jockey Craig Williams who had his choice of the top rides. Catchy is 3 runs for 3 wins with two short distance wins along the way including a tough 1100m win last start over Limestone.
Last start sat off them and came over the top late fighting off the top quality horse in Limestone. The obvious positives for Catchy are the runs to date where the horse has overcome positions out the back and run on strongly through the line and won in fighting finishes. The extra 100m will be very important to Catchy having enough time to come around the field to win this race.
The negative is the horses race pattern and with such a wide barrier drawn, she will need to get the perfect ride, or simply be a few lengths better than this field (which she may very well be). At least she didn’t get the inside barrier!
Pariah – $7 – Barrier 11 – Blake Shinn
In The Blue Diamond Prelude the well fancied Pariah was fairly beaten on the day by Property having to come from out the back. On the two runs to date, this has been the horses pattern and that won’t change today. The increase to 1200m will obviously see the horse hitting the line strongly. but just like with Catchy, Pariah will need a barrier to suit and especially not Barrier 1.
Drawn the barrier inside of Catchy and will be trying to position 1 spot ahead of the race favourite, or position inside of the race favourite forcing Catchy to run a 4-wide line throughout.
Since 2010, Only one winner has come into the race without winning the prior race (Pride of Dubai) and in my opinion, that was one of the lowest Blue Diamonds in recent history.
Will need to be very good and have improved to win from the expected mapping.
Formality – $9 – Barrier 12 – Ryan Moore
Two starts for two wins heading into this.
The first win was painless in a maiden at Werribee as a short priced favourite on the day. Didn’t beat much on that day but jumped very easy, was tested a little bit throughout but won very easy by over 4 lengths in the end.
Hasn’t been seen in over 3 weeks since winning the Chairman’s Stakes beating home some good types in Time Awaits and Spoils on the day. Flew out of the barrier on the day to get a nice spot in running which is a big key to this horses chances in the Blue Diamond. Once again had the horse outside pushing ahead but wasn’t troubled by it… can do it at both ends.
Mapped outside of the expected race favourite Wait For No One, Formality should get a nice run outside of the race leader… but there is a chance Blondie is pushed up to try and grab the rails run out front, but i’m not seeing enough early speed in the horses legs to achieve this.
I believe Formality had a bit up the sleeve on what we saw last start, but this is a step up in class again in terms of this field and Formality will have to pinch more of a break into the straight to hold off the contenders.
Property – $7.50 – Barrier 3 – Joao Moreira
An impressive horse that will position just off the speed in the ideal position in the race. Barrier 3 was the dream draw today with a 3-6 barrier ideal for the run required for this horse to find his very best.
Won the first C/G Preview in impressive fashion positioning just off the speed and flying right past those on speed. The time run was very sound and showed that this is a serious horse.
The last start win was as impressive from a 3-wide run that got a bit wider around the turn. Everyone seemed to focus on the run of Pariah, but in my opinion, these two horses positioned where they would in the main event and Pariah was never going to get close to or go past Property.
On current speed mapping, I have Property getting the 1 back the rails run just off Wait for No One who should give him a solid run into the race. Will need a bit of luck at the right times to get runs, but if they come, i can’t see any horse getting past Property.
There is also a small chance that Azazel kicks up from the inside today also and holds out Property for the 1 back the fence position and Property would find a better spot 2 out. This would be ideal in my opinion.
Jukebox – $8 – Barrier 4 – Luke Nolen
Easy enough win first up in a Geelong maiden. Jumped nicely enough to sit just off the speed on the day box seating. Got to the front around the turn and finished off nicely enough when was a little green overall.
Last start up in class at Caulfield was very well backed on the day in the Inglis Premier. Jumped well enough on the day but wasn’t pushed out, happy to take a sit behind the $2.20 favourite and leader in Perast. Settled well and got the ideal splits in the straight down the rail and just went straight past them.
Drawn the perfect barrier today in number 4, outside of a main rival in Property, the speed mapping has Jukebox settling 1 out 1 back off the back of a very strong competitor in Formality who should take Jukebox a long way into the race. Could get caught 3-wide but every chance that would be with cover with 3 speed runners in the race.
Word is that Jukebox wasn’t even 100% last start and will improve onwards again. Big chance.
Tulip – $8.50 – Barrier 8 – Damien Oliver
One of the few runners in this race with a load of potential to still give with the step up to 1200m. Tulip settled out the back in her very first run over 1000m at Moonee Valley when winning very impressively on the day by 1.5 lengths.
Last start at Caulfield over the 1000m was given an absolute gem of a ride box seating off what was a very solid tempo on the day. Tulip had to do a lot more work early in things than the previous start and certainly felt the pinch late.. it was a very good run certainly but it said to me the horse was looking for 1200m. Will improve loads for this run.
Goes into the race positioning perfectly in a midfield position 1 off the rails. Get the feeling the horse will appreciate settling in this position and looks a live danger to the favourites.
Azazel – $21 – Barrier 1 – Kerrin McEvoy
Two runs this prep heading into the Blue Diamond. Both forgive runs.
First up Azazel was very well backed 3rd favourite. Was well out from a wide barrier but wasn’t pushed along and had to settle 3-wide the trip. Ran on nicely enough into 2nd but was no match for Property. Did find the line well and was a clear eye-catcher for me on the day.
Last start over the 1100m from another outside barrier jumped well and pushed forward this time. Had to sit 3-wide the trip once again. Traveled only fairly around the turn but was beaten with 200m to go. Looked very flat on the day and simply forgive with the wide run.
Had no luck both runs this prep and looks to be a type that will be well suited ridden quietly from an inside barrier. Got the ideal draw in barrier 1 today and looks the big value runner of the race. Should be 2 back the rails behind Property but there is every chance they use that early speed to kick up to sit behind the leader.
Wait For No One – $26 – Barrier 10 – Regan Bayliss
Early 2YO that scored well at course over 1000m in October before a respectable 3rd in November. Two runs in this prep for a 6th (as favourite) and 3rd.
First up this prep at Caulfield over the 1000m he jumped out well from the inside barrier and was also pushed along to hold the lead. They went along at some very solid sectionals throughout and the leaders felt the pinch with 200m to go.
Last start was a much better run off a moderate speed on the day. Jumped well from an inside barrier (6) and pushed on to lead again with relative ease. Was able to save alot of ground and get an easy time out front and led all the way until the final 50m when Property and Pariah who were both 3-wide the trip came over the top late. Was an improved effort.
Certainly had every chance last start and on that run I can’t have him a winning chance, but he certainly could get a nice run out front and be in it a long way. Should lead today.
Aspect – $51 – Barrier 14 – Luke Currie
The word around the tracks was that Aspect was well fancied as the McEvoy stables best chance for a Blue Diamond this year and Aspect started well fancied in the market first-up. Settled 1 out 3 back and was bustled along from a long way out failing to make up any ground. Last prep measured up down the Flemington straight to beat Cao Cao, Wait For No One and Azazel from the back.
This is the type of runner you can expect to see improvement from in this race and looks to be an ideal blowout chance that won’t be fancied one bit in the race.
Barrier has all but ruined all of the horses chances for mine today with a 3-wide+ trip or a run from out the direct back on the cards.
Cao Cao – $31 – Barrier 2 – Mark Zahra
Had two runs last prep with a 2nd to Aspect at Flemington before a 2.8L win over some very average types at Moonee Valley.
Cao Cao was very well backed heading into this prep off a slashing trial effort. Positioned on speed outside of Wait For No One in 2nd and while the horse fought the jockey a little, there really wasn’t much of an excuse considering Wait for No One beat him by lengths and Property + Pariah flew right past.
Will get a much easier run today one would imagine from the inside barrier and will position, most likely, one out, two back in running. Has the speed to push further forward, but I believe they will try and get this horse to relax as much as possible by taking a sit.
Win wouldn’t be an absolute shock on how well the stable rate this horse, but i can’t see it here.
Taking Aim – $26 – Barrier 6 – Craig Newitt
Maiden – yet to score a race win. Two runs to start the prep up at Gosford and then Randwick with a 3rd and 2nd beaten fairly on both occasions.
Last Start over the weekend he ran behind Ducimus in the straight race at Flemington over 1100m when settled off the speed (jumped awkwardly) in the early stages and came just a little too late. For mine, there were two better horses on the day and Taking Aim will need a more forward run to be a factor. Good enough barrier but I have the horse settling 3/4 back in the field at best.
One i’m happy to take on but could consider for exotics.
Spoils – $51 – Barrier 17 – Ben Melham
Maiden. Went close last prep in October defeated 0.1L. First up run settled on speed with Formality and was left for dead with Time Awaits running past and some very average horses left behind in 4th and beyond.
Last start at Caulfield over the 1100m was fairly beaten on the day by Limestone, Tulip and Chateau. Jumped well enough from a wide barrier and got to settle 1 out 1 back. Got going early and around while she hit the lead at the 200m, she was quickly gobbled up and was no match.
Hard to suggest the improvement from anywhere to win this race and barrier 17 is the nail in the coffin. Take on.
Muraahib – $34 – Barrier 15 – Steven Arnold
This is a horse we just don’t have any handle on due to the ease of wins in much easier company. I personally think he is a very good horse and the two wins were more than satisfactory to have him measuring up in this grade of race today.
First up in Adelaide jumped awkwardly from an inside barrier and took a sit just off the leader. Settled well on the day. They didn’t run it very hard overall out front and Muraahib was able to find a way off the rail from the 400m and was very impressive the final 100m.
The last start run at Sale was in a very small field. He was able to jump well and sit on speed. I can personally see him doing similar in this race and settling around midfield throughout. He had the race all his own and he pushed them along at a medium tempo without really any testing tempo. Held the horse until the final 300m before seeing what was in the tank without pulling the whip and he found 5 lengths on the field.
Just how good is he? We don’t know going into this, but there is certainly a query over just how hard he has had it heading into this. I was hoping to see him get in with a barrier 1-6 to settle and sit off them, but from barrier 15 today, I can’t see him getting anywhere closer to the speed than midfield 3-4 horses off. Will need to be a top class horse to overcome this barrier today.
Roomooz – $20 – Barrier 5 – Dwayne Dunn
Beat Joloe Rose first up in Adelaide, the same horse Muraahib beat.
Last start at Caulfield went around in the Catchy/Limestone/Arctic Angel race. Jumped only fairly from an inside barrier and found herself 3 back the rail behind Limestone inside of Catchy. Out for a run around the turn behind Catchy and while she finished off nicely enough, her sectionals weren’t any better than Catchy or Limestone on the day.
Would need to improve onwards and upwards and get a run on from 500 out to have a chance. Drawn ideally with a barrier to get a suck run 4 back the rail or 1 off the rail… but i can’t suggest a win. Has been backed.
Blondie – $51 – Barrier 9 – No Jockey Notified
One start for one win at Moonee Valley last start infront of Zarpoya and Balle D’or. Jumped okay but not brilliant, but fought for the lead and took it pushed along. Still found a way to finish off the race which is fairly impressive, but there were certainly some hard luck stories behind on the day.
May attempt to push the speed along today, due to being inside of the two likely leaders, but I’m assuming from what i’ve seen that the horse doesn’t have the natural early speed to match it out of the gates. I struggle to see this horse winning or even running a place.
Will’s Bid – $61 – Barrier 16 – Damien Lane
Geelong maiden winner. Jumped okay and was bustled along early from a wide barrier and settled 3-wide the trip. Settled well in run and the speed wasn’t overly strong. Pushed along in the final 400m and got going early and went right past them. Wasn’t really any top quality horses in the race is the issue but it was still a nice tough win.
Last start in the Prelude jumped okay from a wide barrier and had to go back, settling out the back 3-wide the trip. Was certainly never a chance from that far back… saved ground and tried to go through the inside and did finish off nicely without being asked of anything the final 200m.
Has some ability but looks to be a horse that needs a good barrier to have any chance of running well and barrier 16 isn’t it. Even with a top quality jock like Damien Lane, it’s hard to see this horse doing something better than Catchy or Pariah from the back.
Sheer Madness – $151 – Barrier 7 – Stephen Baster
First run at Caulfield in the Preview was only fairly out of the barriers and settled worse than midfield. Got out behind Property and was hard ridden into the straight. Kept on finding in the straight and battled on into 5th. Had two swoopers out wide go past.
Last run at Caulfield over 1100m in the Prelude was slowish out from the inside barrier and had no early speed. Pushed on and still had to settle last on the rails. Ridden for luck in the straight and started to pick up when not exactly ridden out the 250m to 150m when i thought could have tried for a run… then not ridden out the final 150m really. Unknown what he still had to give, but it’s unlikely it’s enough to win this.
More than happy to bet around Sheer Madness, but I would note that he isn’t the worst horse in the race.
Top Chances
Property
Catchy
High Chances
Formality
Tulip
Muraahib
Medium Chances
Pariah
Wait For No One
Cao Cao
Low Chances
Aspect
Taking Aim
Very Low Chances
Blondie
Sheer Madness
Will’s Bid
Roomooz
Best Bet
Property @ $7.50
Best Value
Muraahib @ $41.00
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Back Property & Catchy. Also have a small bet on Muraahib
Caulfield Race 8 – 1100m – The Resimax Group Oakleigh Plate
1. Flamberge: Sensational run last start at Flemington over the 1000m when 0.3L off winning a WFA-G1 against the very best sprinters we have. This is a step down according to the ratings and he is a big chance with the right run in transit just off the leaders.
2. Fell Swoop: Never missed a place at this track in the past. Always runs well over these distances and performs nicely first up. For mine, he has to be at his very best and will need to show us something extra today to get the win.
3. Extreme Choice: The horse to beat. Massive WFA-G1 win two back over the 1000m at MV. A repeat of his Blue Diamond run is what is expected today sitting midfield off the rails and running home gamely.
4. Kaepernick: Consistent type of horse that should measure up to Group level this prep if finds the right races. Barrier doesn’t help with the position in running but will be coming over the top well late.
5. Sheidel: WFA-G1 second last start at Ascot. 53kg today has her well in here and has won 2 from three at Caulfield. Respect on speed.
6. Thermal Current: Two wins in a row this prep and up in grade again here. Obviously well weighted but this is significantly harder.
7. Faatinah: Should jump and push the speed out front. Just hasn’t shown us enough to suggest even at these weights that he can win.
8. Wild Rain: Horrible run last start. Obviously better than that. Hard to be overly confident in this off that run though.
9. Aegean Sea: Average at best horse IMO in comparison to the runners in this race. Happy to take on.
10. Hellbent: Suggestion is they have been running this horse under done as a lead in to keep the low weight while getting fitness. Very well in at the weights.
11. Miss Promiscuity: Obviously goes well at this track but just isn’t this class of horse. Place at very best and that is pushing it.
12. Ocean Embers: Not a big fan of the horses racing pattern going back and running on, but that should be an okay pattern today. The last start win in Tasmania was good but the form lines aren’t that great when you look at who beat Lyuba last week. Goes nicely at Caulfield but very best runs have always been off slow/medium tempos out front and i’m not sure she can produce her very best to win this off a hot tempo out front.
13. Ready Sunshine: Struggle to see him placing here.
14. Shakespearean Lass: Backed her last start and just missed behind Thermal Current. Low weight but not great in at the ratings. Has to improve lengths.
15. I Am a Star: Every chance first up and fairly beaten by Super Cash. Low weight but looking for further for mine.
16. El Divino: Poor run last start behind Super Cash. Well in at the weights like Hellbent. Has to improve but obviously aimed at this.
17. Missrock: Scratched first up due to truck incident. Needs the run struggle to suggest over this distance even if she ran well as a 2YO over the distances.
18. Guard of Honour: Good lead in runs from up north. Not sure he is good enough to be winning but has to be considered a chance.
Comments: Wide open race. Could have added 2-3 more to my Quaddie. Extreme Choice is the clear horse to beat while Flamberge at his very best will go very close here off that great lead in run.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
Strategy: Extreme Choice top pick. Flamberge the value in the race.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Premier Signs Mannerism Stakes
1. Miss Rose de Lago: Trialed well heading into the first up run in the C F Orr but was well out of her grade 3-wide no cover not in the lead. 3 of the 4 on speed horses failed to fire on the day which i think is important to remember. Stable is firing at the moment and this step back in class to a race with only one other potential speed chance in the race has her well in here to get the right run throughout.
2. Silent Sedition: Ran home very well last start over the unsuitable 1200m behind Prussian Vixen and comes into this race well suited. Maps to get a spot just off the speed and will get the ideal run throughout.
3. Abbey Marie: Came into this prep undefeated and clearly her best runs were over much further. Ran home nicely enough first up over the 1200m but even up to 1400m today will see her needing further again it seems. Maps well back.
4. Thames Court: Top quality mare that is very best suited over 1400m-1600m. Nice lead in run off the speed 3-wide no cover and still finished off well for 4th. Up to the 1400m and will be well fit today. Gets a spot on speed and may just be able to control it from out the front.
5. Rocket Commander: Measured up in group company last prep with seconds in G3’s behind Kaniana and Euro Angel. Is she top quality though? Query and first up run over 1200m was average at best.
6. Lady Selkirk: BM-78 win last start at Sandown over the 1600m. Obviously a decent win on the day. This is a huge step up in class today and while I think she is good enough to win, this is a very tough test.
7. Press Report: Awkward barrier from the 1400m gate. Led and ran well last start in G3 company at Randwick over 1200m. Never won at distance and is a query for mine.
8. Domino Vitale: Made her way through the grades over the summer period but this is a big step up in class. Has the ability but clearly has to improve again. Likes fast times at least.
9. Alaskan Rose: Rare winner due to race pattern. One you simply just have to always take on. First up was a nice enough run but clearly needs another run for mine or easier company to score.
10. Written Era: Ran a blinder last start when not expected to at course over the 1200m. Step up to 1400m should help… but with a tougher tempo, will she really be able to measure up?
Comments: Hard to go past the price on offer for Thames Court. The tempo will be genuine and this suits this classy horse from on speed.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 8
Strategy: Thames Court – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$1.91
