Welcome to The Profits preview for Bendigo 1 November 2017. We enter November and Cup week is just around the corner! Bendigo Cup gives us a great card to pull out of the hole we got ourselves stuck in after the disappointment from Moonee Valley. Looking forward to a nice Good 4 track after rain came overnight Monday. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Bendigo Race 3 – Knowable – 3 units @ $4.00 to win.
Next Best Bet
Bendigo Race 8 – Foundry – 1.5 units Each-Way (2 places paid) @ $5.5/$2.5
Best Each-Way
Bendigo Race 6 – From The Clouds – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.35
Best Value
Bendigo Race 7 – So Far SoKool – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$6.00
Other Bets
Bendigo Race 1 – Flash Cash – 2 units @ $3.10 to win.
Bendigo Race 2 – Vinland – 2 units @ $2.80 to win.
Bendigo Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Bendigo Race 1 – 1100m – No Fuss Event Hire Maiden Plate
1. My Boy Greg: 7 runs 0 wins so far and is now a 5YO. Best run in past was course and distance 2nd on a soft track. Fairly beaten last few runs but easier horses.
2. Paradise Cove: 7 runs to date and 1 run this prep for just 1 place. This prep stepped back to shorter distances and while he got back to last in a big field last start he ran on okay for third. Not out of it.
3. Red Liberty: One run last prep when went around as a 3YO as favourite at Geelong. Slow out and ran poor. SP’d fav against Tahi who has gone onto Flemington handicap grade and run 2nd. 4 months between runs. Ready.
4. Boom Chicka Boom: First starter for Price yard who was unplaced in a lead in trial. Doesn’t stand out to me here.
5. Flash Cash: Ended last prep with a top run wide throughout at Caulfield in a rating that would win this race. First up run they crawled around and he just was out sprinted late in the piece. Will come on for the run and looks clearly the one to beat. Good type.
6. Premio Momento: Very best in past preps has been well and truly off them and then two runs this prpe beaten 3 and 7L. Hard to suggest.
7. Annie Attitude: Beaten 5.7L+ all 9 runs. No.
8. Real Royal: 4YO mare who has had a trial lead in beaten 5.5L but not the worst trial form.
9. Lady Makfi: Unseen Payne trained and ridden horse. Hasn’t been backed.
Comments: Happy to start the day with a play here on Flash Cash. Looks well above these horses class wise. May end up savering the Price runner from the yard.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Flash Cash – 2 units @ $3.10 to win.
Bendigo Race 2 – 1400m – Bendigo RSL Museum Maiden Plate
1. Magic Thor: Best runs in past were last prep getting within 3L ast Moonee Valley. Hung in both runs this prep and has to improve.
2. Perfectionist: Step up 1000m to 14000m today after a solid run 2nd to I Love Champagne at Donald. Has to be respected from barrier.
3. Civil Disobedience: Three runs to date and hasn’t gone close on three occasions. THis looks harder again.
4. Condover Hall: First starter for Payne stable. Unplaced in barrier trial and hasn’t been backed.
5. Fulton Street: Second start for Sadler stable. Up from 1100m to 1400m and was a reasonable lead in run. Has to be respected.
6. Peppino: Well beaten all three runs this prep. One to avoid.
7. Sinjaree: First starter Hawkes runner. Lugging bit on and came up single figures in betting but has drifted since. Suited by distance on breeding.
8. The Counsellor: Two runs this prep over 1000m and well beaten both attempts. Not for me.
9. Trent: Reared at start first up but ran much better last start at Cranbourne. Did have every chance though so up in distance needs to make the difference.
10. Vinland: SPed favourite first up at Sandown when ran home well for 5th from too far back on the day. Next start 5.7L 5th to She Will Reign and SPed 2nd favourite on heavy. Clearly a horse with a load of ability and have to believe more suited 1400m. Will be backed.
11. Rosamond: 14 runs still yet to break through. Nice run 4th at Moonee Valley last start. Has to go on with it again.
13. Victory Day: 3 runs and not within 5.9L. Hard to see.
Comments: Another race with some fairly unexposed form lines. On the horses best run last start, Vinland has lengths on this field if he can repeat his best and nothing improves significantly here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Vinland – 2 units @ $2.80 to win.
Bendigo Race 3 – 1600m – Heathcore Winery BM-70
1. Knowable: One of two expected to push the tempo on speed today. Looked a great type last prep but failed to come up this prep until a strong 0.1L 2nd last start at course and similar distance.
2. Big Phil: Strong win at Geelong three back before over-racing and getting blocked last two back at Mornington. Went around 2nd fav at Cranbourne and was fairly beaten. This is his level.
3. Hell on Earth: best in the past clearly well above this but he couldn’t win a BM-58 last start. Not sure.
4. Serenade The Stars: Import from UK. With the Gelagotis stable. Best runs were 1900-2400m distances back home. This is a step back in class but at a distance where he is expected to run well but won’t be at top. First prep took 3 turns to get into form.
5. Magellan: Bm-64 grade winner at Moe last start by 0.1L. Up in class but has to be respected.
6. Defy: Tatura maiden winner last start. Big jump in class again.
Comments: A bit surprised by the price on offer for Knowable here. If he is remotely close to top in the yard he will be very hard to beat here. Happy to take on the import and Hell on Earth as well as Magellan and Defy. Big Phil the main danger.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Knowable – 3 units @ $4.00 to win.
Bendigo Race 4 – 1000m – Bet365 Price Guarantee BM-70
1. Balancing Act: Will be on speed today well back in grade here. Has won at track previously and goes well at this class. Last prep won 3 in a row. Reared at start up in Randwick last start and wasn’t backed on the day. Has to be respected but will need to be good with 61.5kg.
2. All About Nicci: Four runs this prep with 2 wins in easier grade. Step up in class here off an only fair run at Moonee Valley last start. Never won on a good track a concern so wants the track to remain soft.
3. Miss Benedetta: First up on speed at Mornington and just not good enough. Stays at 1000m and closer to home. Has measured up in harder.
4. Villa Rosa: Nice enough win at Mornington and has 22 days between runs. 2L 6th last prep over 1200m in 3F-GP3 class so has to be respected.
5. Amaretto: Couldn’t win a BM-58 last start. Looks well outclassed here.
6. Flying Spark: Good on speed win two back at course and last start wide during turn and just missed. Step up in grade but respected.
8. Shining Star: BM-58 Donald winner two back before 2nd in similar grade. Much harder here.
Comments: Balancing Act and Shining Star have the best runs from the past coming into this while Raspberry Rose will be scratched after running at Benalla. Ran last and we wanted to take it on here. Flying Spark and Balancing Act look well placed.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Balancing Act and Flying Spark
Bendigo Race 5 – 1100m – Bendigo Locksmiths BM78 Handicap
1. Painte: Looked a nice type in previous preps but doesn’t win often. 1.8L off Nieta last prep first up in much harder company. Came to Moonee Valley and ran 2.2L 6th behind Camdus. With Weir now and has a strong first up record.
2. Thronum: 3YO-LR winner on heavy up north last prep before 3rd to Divine Prophet in a G3 on soft. Failed on good tracks the next two starts an issue. Had a year off between runs and on best has to be respected here.
4. Go Down: 5L winner at course four runs back first up last prep. Then won well at Moonee Valley before finding a few too good. Goes well first up.
5. Del Piero: Nice run 3rd at odds last start at Ballarat in similar grade. Has to improve here.
6. Evil Lil: Best runs in the past over further. 1600m to end last prep and is 1100m first up today.
7. Poderoso: Maiden winer on heavy.
Comments: Painte and Thronum bring the best form lines into this race today while Evil Lil finished last prep off a career peak and may just be a sneaky chance first up over this distance with 52kg. Surprised by the price of Thronum and hope to see this horse under-done in the yard so we can take it on.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Painte and Evil Lil.
Bendigo Race 6 – 1100m – Poyser Isuzu Trucks BM-64
1. Tycoon Tony: Saddle slipped yet still won last start at Tatura first up when backed as favourite. Always SP’s short. Nice barrier.
2. Wimborne: Bm-58 heavy winner first up then failed last start on good over 1400m. Never won on good from 8 starts.
3. Hydro Force: BM-70 Seymour winner last prep. Failed to show anything first up at big odds. Hard to see on first up run.
4. Shauquin: BM-64 3rd first up over 1200m on soft. Maiden winner previous prep at course and distance. Goes well here.
5. Written In Stone: First up today. Looked a good type winning first up first prep. Last prep ran well without winning. Expect to have matured and he hard to beat.
6. FromParis WithLove: BM-64 grade winner last prep course over 1400m. Well beaten first up over 1100m.
7. From The Clouds: 1.9L 6th at Caulfield behind Bandipur first up before beaten 8.8l last start behind Invincible Star. Well back in class here. Get back run on type and looks well suited here.
8. Pirapala: Maiden winner at Tatura last start coming off a Randwick maiden 8th. Hayes stable.
9. Captain’s Son: R-58 winner at Pakenham last start. Did lose a plate. Has to be respected going well.
10. Club Tropicana: Last prep maiden winner at Cranbourne but failed in harder company and then similar company as this in favourite.
11. Elite Joy: 2.8L maiden winner over 1400m last start. Back to 1100m.
Comments: Surprised From the Clouds has come up such a big price coming off Caulfield runs. Very keen to play here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: From The Clouds – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.35
Bendigo Race 7 – 1400m – All Seasons Hotel BM-64
1. Double Jeopardy: Quality type that is never far away. In a very winnable race today and top weight. Good barrier on speed type.
2. I Have Arrived: Beat 16 horse first up by 2.8L. Have to respect that ability shown and will run well here.
3. King Mombassa: Weir runner who failed last start over-racing throughout. Have to respect the SP.
4. Metson: Strong maiden winner three back before failing to get the job done the last two starts in much harder. The form of last start behind Eptimum and Sam’s Image is top class for this. Good barrier.
5. Saucy Jack: Maiden winner first up and went close last start at Cranbourne at big odds in a close finish.
6. Tamasa: Go forward again today. Maiden winner at the Bool first up.
7. Missile Man: Maiden winner last start at Ballarat in average time from on speed. Needs to improve.
8. Poet’s Corner: Good run first up at Caulfield in a quality race and then won nicely enough at Bairnsdale last start when very green. Big chance.
9. Royale Effort: 6 runs to get a win but placed 4 other times. Looked a nice type as a 2YO but as a 3YO finding it harder.
10. Azyaan: Donald maiden winner last start. Well up in weights and class.
11. Shagra: Geelong maiden winner on heavy last start. Back to dryer and up in class.
12. So Far Sokool: Very good type for OTI. Best runs were 1400m and looks a promising filly. Respect here.
Comments: Some very promising types here making it tough to bet. Double Jeopardy rates well here from out the front but will have a lot of competition. Metson is the obvious standout with the Sams’s Image/Epi form. So Far SoKool is huge overs on potential and has to be backed here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 12
Strategy: So Far SoKool – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$6.00
Bendigo Race 8 – 2400m – Bendigo Cup
1. Qewy: Hasn’t run well since winning the Sandown Cup and Geelong Cups last year. Best distances are further than this but he has to be respected.
2. Foundry: Group 1 winner two back at Randwick and then failed last start at Caulfield on what was probably too firm a track and hot tempo for that. Respect here.
3. Kiwia: Group 3 winner last start off a tempo that suited. Best runs clearly good enough to win but may need to improve slightly again.
4. Big Memory: Hasn’t gone close to level needed to win this, this prep. Struggle to suggest.
5. Meet and Greet: Comes out of a rock hard race 2nd to Violate who then ran well in the Geelong Cup. Has to respect first time this distance.
6. Skulduggery: Big jump in class up to a distance he has never placed at. Not for me.
7. Khartoum: Carey stable runner who won a maiden two back. Clearly outclassed here at very best.
Comments: Three clear chances on current form. I just have to take on Qewy today at the price based on the last 11 months runs while Kiwia is well under the odds also. Foundry is a huge price for a horse that won a Group 1 two back and is in a G3 race today on a track with sting out.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3
Strategy: Foundry – 1.5 units Each-Way (2 places paid) @ $5.5/$2.5
Bendigo Race 9 – 1400m – TCL QUHD TV Melb Cup Carnvial – BM-78
1. Dubai King: Step back up in class after two poor runs this prep. Would surprise me.
2. Elite Tiger: Two runs this prep with 1 in harder company… but failed to fire both starts. Last prep form good enough to go well here.
3. Another Coldie: Four runs this prep. Got the win two back at Geelong and ran fairly last start behind Fox Hall at Cranbourne. Has to improve but has to be respected on best.
4. As Bad as Tyson: Won two of last 5 and placed in other 3. Measures up to this grade.
5. Aurum Spirit: Three runs this prep and continues to run well without going close. Others preferred.
6. Royal Ace: Strong win last start at Bendigo. Comes off last prep wina t the Bool. The wetter the better.
7. Mr Churchill: Last prep bm-70 win at Pakenham. Two runs this prep with a unlucky run first up at Caulfield before failing at Moe last start. Back to dryer ideal.
8. Night’s Watch: OTI runner. Two wins in a row first and second up in good classes before going under $1.5 and $3.50 last two starts. Had issues the last two starts. Can win.
9. New Graduate: Consistent type. Not the worst run at Benalla last start and has measured up in higher grade. Meech on.
10. Savaju: BM-70 winner two preps back and has measured up at Caulfield in the past. Two runs this prep well below the class required.
11. Awake in Grinzing: BM-70 3rd last start at Seymour coming off two poor runs. Respect ability from a good gate.
Comments: Wide open race here. Night’s Watch clearly the best horse but has been costly of late. A few good chances at odds as Quaddie numbers suggest.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: Night’s Watch to win.
Bendigo Race 10 – 1300m – BM-70
1. Sword of Justice: Failed heavil the last two starts after winning well at Cranbourne first up. Has had the tracks to suit also. Good enough.
3. Our Sevira: Nice enough run first up in good grade of race from out the back. Up in distance here much better suited.
4. Soju Warrior: Listed grade 5th last start and previous run at Caulfield 3rd in Handicap. Go well.
5. Nic Nat: Eurell runner who has failed last two starts to get the job done. Had chances for mine and take on here.
6. Saddle THe Sun: Two starts two wins. Beat an okay bunch at Cranbourne last start and Hayes stable so have to respect placement.
7. The Passage: Blinkers off first up. Best runs over further in the past but won maiden over 1200m and has to be respected. Strong type.
8. Got The Moves: Two wins to start the prep before found two too good last stat at Pakenham but ran well. Ability.
9. Whyouask: Flemington 4th to end last prep after a 5th the run prior. Times and ratings are sound.
10. Benny Goes Berzerk: Ballarat 4th last start in easier grade and run prior at Flemington similar. Gets a long way back.
11. Pray for Us: Maiden winner last prep. Not one for me here.
Comments: Wide open race several key chances in the race. Wide Quaddie final leg and could still miss. Not keen to play here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Soju Warrior to win
