Welcome to The Profits Bendigo Cup preview on 26 October 2016. We are getting to the pointy end of the Spring racing carnival with Flemington just around the corner. This is a bit of an underwhelming Bendigo Cup this year but it has given us some strong betting opportunities. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Bendigo Race 6 – 1100m – TCL QUHD TV BM-78 Handicap
Just the three main chances by my ratings today with Duibio first up here looking to find a return to form while Squeaky Squirrel and Chase the Horizon both have the runs on the board.
Chase the Horizon‘s 1L win last start would have been 2-3L if he got clear running at the right stages. I think there will be more than enough give in the ground today to satisfy and third up he will be peaking here. Good enough barrier to get a nice spot in running.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Chase the Horizon for 2.5 units @ $2.60
Bendigo Race 8 – 2400m – Jayco Bendigo Cup
1. Howard Be Thy Name: Nice enough run two back in WFA-G1 class behind Black Heart Bart over the 1800m, but last start failed to fire beaten 7L behind Assign over the 2400m. Last prep won in Group 1 company as a 3YO over 2500m… won in Group 3 company over 2000m and ran a close 3rd behind Macintosh over 2200m. For a horse with 12 places and a Group 1 4th on the record, the three runs this prep beaten 5L 6L and 7L don’t paint the ideal picture.
2. Bring Something: Put the writing on the wall first up with a very nice run in Open grade 3rd behind Royal Rapture but was very disappointing last start at Caulfield well beaten. Has to improve but has won 3 from 6 at this distance and goes very well at this track.
3. Blizzard: Smashed last start at Moe running a very long last. Up to 2400m will suit a little better but even so this is another hard task. 2.5L 10th in a Group 1 over 1600m. Best form has been on dryer tracks. Maps as the leader if they go that way today.
4. Desert Samurai: Two runs this prep. Good run 3rd first up and last start as favourite fairly beaten by some lesser types. Big step up in distance – never won over 2100m+ or at track from 4 starts. Not sure he is best suited to a firm track either.
5. Ferro Nero: Big win last start at Caulfield in easier company from the back. Never won at distance or track but is running well enough to suggest a good run here.
6. Francis of Assisi: The lowest rated flat runner to come out this Spring, his 114+ Timeform rating was back in 2013 and the two runs last prep on flat were not better than a 107 (would have needed a 116+ to win the Geelong Cup and 124+ for Caulfield Cup). Goes well enough on flat but this certainly looks short of his best distances and also a throw at the stumps.
7. Go Dreaming: Last in the Caulfield Cup after 6L 4th behind Real Love the run before that. Nice enough type but hasn’t won since a 2000m listed win over Jims Journey. All runs this prep have been far off a winner.
8. Our Century: Williams import. 10L 2nd to Hartnell over 3200m as a 3YO in the UK. Good win last start in a much easier grade at Caulfield. Will be on speed again today but has to go to the next level.
9. Second Bullet: The x factor in the race today, he finally gets up to a suitable distance after an okay run first up and two average runs since. Suited by a Good track and maps nicely just off the leaders today.
Comments: This is a very average Group 3 race sadly today. I couldn’t entertain the short price on offer for Our Century and even after being on last start there is no way I could justify betting Howard Be Thy Name. Second Bullet’s first up run was more than good enough to suggest a return to form here while Blizzard’s previous best form is more than good enough back to a dryer track today from an on speed position.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Second Bullet – 1 unit @ $7.50 & Blizzard – 0.5 units @ $41
