Welcome to The Profits preview for Ballarat Cup Day at Ballarat on 25 November 2017. Racing this week moves to the country with the traditional Ballarat Cup meeting on what looks to be a warm day. Expecting a solid on pace track today as has been the case in the past and there are a few standouts on the card. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Ballarat Race 1 – Royal Fashion – 5.5 units @ $4.00 to win
Next Best Bet
Ballarat Race 10 – Chamois Road – 2 units @ $6.00 to win. Toy Boy 1.75 units @ $7.00 to win.
Best Each-Way
Ballarat Race 8 – Grey Lion – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7/$2.50
Best Value
Ballarat Race 6 – Rib Eye – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$3.50
Other Bet
Ballarat Race 2 – Sacred Sham – 1.5 units @ $5.00 to win. Judges – 0.5 units @ $34 to win
Sandown Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 9, 12, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 12, 13, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ballarat Race 1 – 1200m – BM-78
1. Single Note: Won 4 in a row last prep before failing on a Heavy track in harder than this at Flemington from on speed. 200 days between runs and 3kg claim today. Never won first up from 4 tries an issue.
2. Brugal Reward: Strong 2nd in similar company last start behind Modern Wonder. Was fairly beaten on the day.
3. Go Down: First up for 305 days and ran 5L 2nd to Thronum at Bendigo last start from on speed. Thronum gone well up in grade and measured up since. Expect progression today 2nd up and can run well.
4. Royal Fashion: Front runner who jumps well. Strong trial winner heading into this. G3 measured up NZ import who performs best on Good to Soft tracks over 1200m. Looks very well suited here.
5. Soho Ruby: First up today (never won first up) coming off strong 1600m campaign. Distance the issue.
6. Meridian Star: BM-64 grade winner last start – got away with a easy lead and won well. Form stable right now but big jump in grade.
7. Written Return: Solid run first up at Ararat behind a nice type and only beaten 0.5L 3rd. Never measured up and won in this grade yet is a query though. Has to improve again.
8. Arachne: Two runs this prep and was beaten 5L last star tin easier grade which is a query.
9. Love Days: Blinkers first time. Two runs this prep. First up in similar grade beaten fav. Last start at Geelong held up for runs in harder company. Weighted well here and has to be respected.
10. She’s Going Off: Bendigo 3L winner to end last prep. Lightly raced mare. Big ask first up here over distance in this grade.
Comments: Two clear standouts here in Royal Fashion and Love Days. Royal Fashion did everything you want to see in a 1000m trial at Benalla on the lead in and will be very hard to run past.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Royal Fashion – 5.5 units @ $4.00 to win
Ballarat Race 2 – 1100m – Iszu Ball
1. Judges: Held up for runs at Caulfield when never given a chance ending last held up for runs. 3kg claimer and has a decent first up record. Distance only query but on best runs in past have to respect.
2. Coram: First up today and well back in grade from previous preps. Ran a close 2nd at Flemington in highest class last prep. Has to be respected but is just 1 win from 23 starts on a good track.
3. Fabulonh: 7 runs last prep but no wins. Goes okay at this distance but best over further? Not convinced in this grade at weights.
4. Mistoffelees: Four runs this prep. WOn first up over the 1000m in similar grade and went really close last start at Pakenham on a wetter surface. Respect enough.
5. Captain Crackerjack: First up ran 5th at Ararat and could only manage 5th from on speed. Was a good race but this is another hard one.
6. It’s A Shame Billy: First up here coming off a long prep. Didn’t get the wins in this grade last prep so hard to see first up against these.
7. Perfect Command: Another first up runner. BM-64 grade winner two preps back and didn’t get beyond that last prep. Would have to have trained on significantly to win this.
8. Reset Me I’m Wild: Form stable. CL1 winner up at the Gold Coast before failing in a 3YO Handicap at Doomben. Not the worst on potential.
9. Sacred Sham: Looked a very nice type last prep but just fell short of wins. Strong trial win leading in and looks ready to fire well back in class.
10. Banachek: CL1 winner on lead in at Kilmore. Big step up in grade but well respected type from a good yard.
11. Beyond the Dream: Two wins in a row this prep and last run was impressive by 2.75L in a small field. Can go on with it.
12. Manihi Mischief: First up at Moonee Valley was fair closing in on them late over the 955m. Step up in grade and class here again.
13. Written in Stone: Nice win from out back last start at Bendigo and will have trained on well since. Respect stable here and well suited from barrier.
14. Creativity: Three runs last prep. Two solid wins going through grades and then a huge run 3rd to end the prep at Caulfield in harder company than this. Barrier only concern today.
15. El Rada: Beaten 5L last start wide at MV. Previous start couldn’t win a Hamilton. Hard to see.
16. Club Tropicana: Sale winner by 4L last start as a short priced fav in 4 horse race coming off a 2nd to Written in Stone. Doesn’t look great odds for mine from barrier.
17. Via Balciano: 2.8L winner at Maiden first up and just beaten 0.1L 2nd as $1.60 fav last start in CL1. Step up in grade but clearly has ability.
Comments: Two standouts with Sacred Sham and Creativity while Judges and Written in Stone look the chances at odds. The two horses that appeal the most to be here are Sacred Sham and Judges. Sacred Sham will position midfield and get the perfect run. Judges will be going forward today and looks huge overs with the 3kg claim onboard.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Sacred Sham – 1.5 units @ $5.00 to win. Judges – 0.5 units @ $34 to win.
Ballarat Race 3 – 2300m – BM78
1. Lucques: Three runs this prep and not gone close. Getting up to the right distances now though and i’d expect huge improvement today and the horse ridden forward.
2. Ormito: Every chance past three starts. Just not going well for mine.
3. Shamkiyr: Good run 6th at Flemington last start from out the back. Should have sat further forward for mine. Back in class here and suited if run on’s are winning.
4. Noumea: Not the worst runner last start at Flemington nor previous run at Caulfield. Would need to improve up to the 2300m today though to figure which on past form including a 2400m win at Ascot I think can happen. Respect.
5. Electric Fusion: Can’t win this prep and hard to respect here. Ignore last start on wetter. Up in distance 1600 to 2300m… trainer can’t make up mind.
6. Lycurgus: Continues to run well this prep and is ready to win today at 2300m back in this grade. Well suited and very clearly a top chance.
7. Tiger Tim: Will lead them around. Nice run at Flemington last start and will try and push them around here today again. Best is good enough.
8. Crediton: Three runs this prep beaten fairly on all 3 occasions. Not for me.
9. Exalted Lightning: Gawler winner last start in much easier grade. Struggle to suggest here without big improvement again.
10. Etah James: Two wins this prep including last start in slightly easier over 2218m at Geelong. Step up but not out of it.
11. Cedar Grande: Four runs this prep and fairly beaten all 4 runs. G2 back to this today. Wasn’t badly beaten two back at MV. Not the worst.
12. Prince of Pagoda: BM-60 winner last start at Morphetville. Huge class jump but right stable for it.
13. Rokda Kasba: Decent 3rd in easier class last start at Morphetville. Has to be respected on runs.
Comments: Lycurgus a clear standout here while i’m expecting big improvement from Noumea and Lucques who represent value here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Lycurgus. Also smaller bets on Noumea and Lucques.
Ballarat Race 4 – 1000m – Magic Millions 2YO CLockwise Classic
1. Akkadian:
2. First Time Lucky:
3. Malawi Gold:
4. Native Solider:
5. Anthemoessa:
6. Countercurrent:
7. Farthing Wood:
8. First Diamond:
9. La Pomme de Pin:
10. Our Toninicconi:
11. Speedy Kitty:
12. Paquirri:
13. Rock the World:
14. Juanito Uvez:
15. Royal Bower:
16. Despacito:
Comments:
Confidence
Strategy:
Ballarat Race 5 – 1400m – Vobis Gold Eureka Stockade
1. Tezlah: Ran on well enough last start over 1400m beaten 8th. Stays at 1400m today coming off two prior wins. Respect.
2. Pique: Weir runner who has won just 1 of last 7 games. Ran on strongly last start at MV and need to respect the horse from this stable at this track
3. Gaudi: Maiden winner beating an average bunch at Cranbourne. Big step up today.
4. Mactier: Step back to 1400m ideal today as just didn’t see out the strong Flemington 1600m. Two previous runs over 1200m and 1400m eye-catchers.
5. Cutlass: Benalla Maiden. Time was average at best.
6. Captain Harry: Couldn’t win a maiden heading in.
7. Fulton Street: Failed to get a maiden win last start. Struggle.
8. Just a Joke: Two barrier trials heading into this. Blinkers on. Have to respect this stable.
9. Prepare to Win: Won 2 of 3 this prep. That being said, the grades were much easier than this today!
10. Peninsula Miss: Couldn’t win a maiden at Bendigo last start.
Comments: Two standouts at reasonable odds here in Mactier and Tezlah. Expect both can run very well. Tezlah obviously the favourite and one to beat.
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: Back Tezlah and Mactier.
Ballarat Race 6 – 1600m – Suez McKellar Mile
1. Rib Eye: Got dominated last start in much harder grade over 1600m and was really disappointing. This is a significantly easier task form the barrier and I’m not expecting a brutal tempo here either.
2. Aurum Spirit: Clearly going well enough to hold this weight and line up a higher class room.
3. Royal Ace: Too far back last start at MV when front runners suited. Had his chance but found one too good with a better run. This is easier.
4. Elite Tiger: Not the worst run last start at Donald but clearly still needing more runs.
5. Burrum’s Buzz: Nice BM-70 grade winner last start coming off an okay run at Ballarat. Has to improve onwards but not alot.
6. Zagaya: Had his chances last start Flemington. Looked decent in yard previous start when beat Tranquil Miss.
7. Casta: Just beaten 0.75L first up over the 1600m at Ballarat in this class.
8. Our Mallee Hoff: Swan Hill winner two back and fairly beaten Donald last start. Will be a much harder 1600m on Saturday.
9. Siga La Vaca: Winner last start at Ballarat. Not the best race but ok. Well beaten last two starts a query on the form.
10. Bonus D’oro: Well beaten last start at Bendigo in ‘harder’. Not the worst runner here and did win 3 in a row remember.
11. Mr Liberty: Meech on. Last prep BM-70 winner over 1600m. This is his maximum level.
12. Wenner: Beatne favourite at Sale last start. For mine has to improve to measure up here.
13. Mount Panorama: Two runs this prep. Couldn’t win a CL1 last start. Struggle to suggest here.
14. Antagonist: BM-64 2nd beaten 5L two back and then failed in the Greys race. no.
Comments: Rough race to pick in. Have to believe they won’t lead this around significantly fast and that will suit Rib Eye on speed at the weights on the horses very best.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Rib Eye – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$3.50
Ballarat Race 7 – 1400m – BM-84 Handicap
1. Dan Zephyr: Hit the front a long way our and ran down late by Aeratius. Go well here.
2. Black Sheep: Good win over an average bunch last start off BM-84 grade. All comes down to the yard with this one.
3. Glenrowan Prince: 3 disappointing runs this prep. Struggle to suggest.
4. Golden Mane: Two runs last start in strong company and wasn’t the worst in either. 250 days between runs and trialled ok.
5. Riyadh: Back to the trials last week after 4 weeks on the sidelines. Going well enough to figure.
6. Shoreham: Won lead in trial this prep first up. Last prep measured up around decent types.
7. Urban Ruler: Poor ride in grey race but a shadow of his former self last start is the issue. Can win.
8. Broadway and First: Two runs this prep and not far off on both occasions. Needs to improve form to measure up here.
9. Snitzelwood: Trial winner heading in off a strong prep where he ran 3rd at Caulfield over 2800m. Needs further for very best but may not need to be that good to win this.
10. New Universe: Very well backed into favourite last start at Flemington and ran like an absolute busted! Not for mine but win wouldn’t shock.
11. Orient Line: Get back run on type. Not here.
12. Ozi Choice: Ran very well last start but claimed and headed in the straight but kept on going well. Can win.
13. The New Boy: 9YO, who is nearly 10. Two decent runs at Geelong but the Ballarat is another step up.
14. Milwaukee: Could be anything with a bit more work put into him. Dollar for Dollar form is solid so clearly respect horses chances here.
15. Rewarding Effort: Cranbourne trial strong. First up here and gotta start with somewhere. Not for mine.
16. Star Fortune: Good leader biased win at Cranbourne last start. Went really slow and paid the price. Did over-whip it.
17. Dusty Jack: A few runs this prep without a load of luck.
Comments: Probably one of the hardest races you will see on paper for a very long time. I’d have to go with Snitzelwood E/W at the prices and that is just a low confidence play. Too many chances.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 9, 12, 14
Strategy: Snitzelwood E/W
Ballarat Race 8 – 2200m – Ballarat Cup
1. Antonio Giuseppe: 6th up today. WIde no cover last start but still made ground in the Crystal Mile. 7th in the Metrop fairly beaten but was good in the G3 Kingston Town the run prior. Has been working through poor form all prep and Walker jumps onboard here. Maps for a perfect run if good enough.
2. De Little Engine: Beaten 8L first up over 1800m. 2200m within his distance range but really feel he needs another run here. 8 runs 0 wins 2nd up.
3. Extra Zero: Two runs this prep and while he was poor first up, he wasn’t bad with top weight last start giving Doding Bullets 3.5kg and losing only 0.9L. Even so, I really felt that was his chance to get the win and this is harder.
4. Big Memory: Just hasn’t been going well enough. Would need a huge reversal in form.
5. Grey Lion: Blinkers off an interesting move. Two very strong runs in a row behind Vengeur Masque. Step back to 2200m certainly questionable today for a horse that that was clearly at top over further last start as only concern. Maps to lead them around.
6. Second Bullet: Wasn’t the worst run last start beaten 3rd by Odeon but that is a step below this form wise. Has to improve and run to top such as first up this prep.
7. Mr Garcia: Won a very average BM-90 grade race at Flemington first up and may very well improve on with it. Suited over shorter than this though. Maps very well most likely 1 out 1 back.
8. Big Blue: Disappointed last start at Flemington and wasn’t much better at Seymour previous start. Back over distances which is what he required especially over the 2200m. With Baster on i’m expecting they could go forward today.
9. Sonntag: Strong win last start at Ararat in the Cup and a big chance they could he could lead them around here. Not for mine on times run last start.
10. Oncidium Ruler: Flemington winner last start when looked near top in the yard and ran home Knowable who is a questionable horse at the moment over the final 100m. Has to improve again to win this but clearly has ability.
11. Grand Dreamer: Fairly beaten in Kyneton Cup last start. Previous runs average but not great.
12. Knowable: Couldn’t sustain a run for the final 200m last run over 2000m so hard to see it 2200m in this class.
13. Jimmie Jim: Maiden winner two back and then third in 0-58 last start. Struggle to suggest why the horse should be running.
Comments: At the end of the day, when you look at the fields here, it’s impossible to look around the consistency of Grey Lion back to a suitable distance. Second Bullet may drift to a backable price but feel it may run well here. Finally, I wouldn’t be dismissing Big Blue here also. Mr Garcia well under the odds while Antonio is hard to back at prices.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Grey Lion – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7/$2.50
Ballarat Race 9 – Magic Millions 3&4YO Classic
1. Liberty Song: 955m winner two back at MV. Last start checked at start and never a chance. Best should be good enough to run well here.
2. Senor Gaudi: Gawler CL2 winner last start. Previous run couldn’t win in BM-70 grade. Others preferred.
3. Wrecking Ball: Ballarat BM-58 winner first up before 4th in BM-64 last start. Has to improve.
4. Steel of Madrid: Maiden 3rd last start at Mornington when fairly beaten on the day. Has to improve.
5. Modern Wonder: Strong MV winner last start by nearly 3L leading all the way. Good win three back also franking the form.
6. Balancing Act: Fairly beaten last start at Moonee Valley and found one too good the previous start at Bendigo beaten by only an average type. Has to improve.
7. Divine Quality: Well back in class today coming off a wide run at Flemington in harder class. Previous run was good enough to measure up to this. Big chance.
8. Miss Wonderland: Two solid lead in trials for this strong sprinter. Had nearly a year between runs the only concern.
9. Pirapala: Well bred Hayes runner. Tatura Maiden winner before fairly beaten last start as favourite at Bendigo. Has to improve.
10. Royal Phoenix: 2YO winner at FLemington last prep before lameness at Caulfield. 150 days between runs and gelded. Hawkes stable going very well right now.
11. Debonairly: Pulled up lame last start at Flemington when favourite in a G3. Clearly something went wrong between preps. Hard to have off lameness issues and the set backs but a win wouldn’t shock back in this grade and going the Sydney way. Was this always the main goal?
12. Chalcidian: Maiden winner who couldn’t get a CL1 last start. Not for me.
Comments: There are huge queries over the two favourites in Miss Wonderland coming off a very long break and Debonairly off a lameness fail. Modern Wonder has won well two of the last three starts and has to be considered a top chance from the barrier. of those outside of this, Libery Song has the ability to win and so does Divine Quality. The Gelded Hawkes 2YO winner Royal Phoenix is a big unknown.
Confidence 55%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Modern Wonder E/W
Ballarat Race 10 – 1200m – City of Ballarat Tonks Plate
1. Sadler’s Lake: Maps very well. 1 back rail potentially. Two lead in trials after nearly 450 days off the track.
2. Chamois Road: On speed runner who won well last week in Adelaide beating a good type in Desert Lashes with top weight on the day. Previous two runs 2nd beaten by Moss n Dale and Lord Aspen. Top form lines and leader.
3. Suspense: Led them all the way at Moonee Valley last start and dug deep but the bias perhaps got the horse home. Have to respect last two runs.
4. Hazzzabeel: Distance query based on previous two preps but does go ok at the distance. Just not for mine over it.
5. Ruettiger: Been going consistently well the past 5-6 runs and fallen just short a few times. Barrier doesn’t give him a huge chance again. Was an eye-catcher last start and have to respect.
6. Smart Dart: Two return runs were very plain. May just be wanting further or easier?
7. Onerous: Two runs this prep. First up not terrible but fairly beaten by some in this race. Horrible in the Greys race.
8. Proud Wolf: Seymour winner before failing hard at Kyneton last start. Struggle to suggest unless at very best.
9. Eximius: Cranbourne Trial winner. Last prep won at Echuca over further then failed to fire last two runs of prep. Only won 1 from 9 first up.
10. Got the Goss: Bm-84 winner second up in nice style at Kyneton. Can push into this based on past results and Weir stable. Big chance.
11. Just Magical: First up after a WA prep and bar plates off. Best a step below this.
12. Oberland: Strong showing at Flemington last start and continues to run well without winning. Should get a more suitable pace on our front today.
13. Falcool: Hamilton winner with top weight first up. Obviously a good type but clearly this is a big jump. Have to be good.
14. Toy Boy: Solid Pakenham win but didn’t beat much at all. Big jump in class.
Comments: The real issue here is I can’t see the speed being on at all today. Chamois Road and Suspense will be pushing forward with little other competition to lead. Chamois Road will be VERY hard to run down. The only horse I can see doing that is Toy Boy from the barriers.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 12, 13, 14
Strategy: Chamois Road – 2 units @ $6.00 to win. Toy Boy 1.75 units @ $7.00 to win.
