Welcome to The Profits preview of the card from Aintree on 6 April 2017. We start the day with four Group 1 class events and there are two key races i’m interested in getting involved in betting wise. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Aintree Race 1 – Top Notch – 5 units @ $2.3. Cloudy Dream 1.75 units @ $4.2
Next Best Bet
Aintree Race 3 – Cue Card – 2.5 units @ $3.10. Silviniaco Conti – 0.5 units @ $12.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Aintree Race 1 – 4000m – 10:45pm AEST
Only two real chances on paper in this race today giving up a strong betting opportunity.
Cloudy Dream has been very well placed all prep going through the grades and has lived up to expectation. In Group 1 class behind Altior wasn’t disgraced beaten 6L into 2nd last start in what was a career peak run over a shorter distance in 3200m. Has had no troubles with 4000m in the past and it may very well provide him with the opportunity to improve onwards again.
Top Notch is the clear horse to beat in this race. He ran a blinding race last start when 2nd behind Yorkhill at Cheltenham in Group 1 class coming off a Group 1 win the previous start at Sandown. That run repeated here will be hard to beat on the day.
Of the others, Flying Angel is the horse with the ability to run a race at odds.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Top Notch – 5 units @ $2.3. Cloudy Dream 1.75 units @ $4.2
Aintree Race 2 – 3400m – 11.20pm AEST
The odds tell the tail of this race.
Defi Du Seuil is the $1.334 favourite having won a G1, G2 and G1 on the lead in to this race. This horse is the real deal and based on recorded ratings, he should be winning by 10L+ today.
Happy to just watch at the odds.
Aintree Race 3 – 5000m – 11.50pm AEST
The highest rated race on the card featuring some of the best Chasers in the land.
Cue Card is the obvious favourite having produced ratings in 4 of his last 8 runs that would simply put away this field. Was a very disappointing faller last start at Cheltenham which has been a pattern there for this horse. Has never fallen in 5 attempts at Aintree though which is a positive.
Empire of Dirt is the main opposition on paper today. His run two back at Leopardstown was a career peak when 2nd to Sizing John, but last start back to 4200m at Cheltenham he was average a best running 4th and recording a lesser rating. His best runs in the past have been on wetter surfaces than this which is a concern in my eyes.
If Cue Card is well below his best and Empire of Dirt doesn’t improve today, then the two main threats are Silviniaco Conti and Smad Place. Both runners haven’t run anywhere near their careers peaks in recent preps but both have the raw ability to improve and run well here… Silviniaco Conti more so than Smad.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Cue Card – 2.5 units @ $3.10. Silviniaco Conti – 0.5 units @ $12.
Aintree Race 4 – 4000m – 12:25pm
Buveur D’Air is the rightful $1.47 favourite after producing a career best run at Cheltenham. First time ever over 4000m up from 3200m is obviously a bit of an unknown factor today though.
My Ten or Yours was not disgraced 2nd to Buveur Dair last start at Cheltenham and his only run in the past over the 4000m distance was a 18L 2nd to Annie Power at course which is no disgrace at all. He has the potential to contend with Buveur on ratings, but he will need to handle the distance.
The horse they are backing back up to the 4000m today is The New One. Personally, I’m not a fan of that form line heading into this and The New One has been a costly horse throughout his career.
Happy to leave this race alone. If i was playing, the $3.50 for My Tent or Yours to run Top 2 looks the way to go.
