Welcome to The Profits 2017 Melbourne Cup Preview. It’s been an amazing Spring and we now have the final field set for Australia’s richest race over the 3200m distance. I’m expecting there to be a load of tempo in this race with the Williams pacemaker Gallante going forward along with the Waterhouse runner… plus several imports will be pushing hard early from out wide to gain positions which will cause them to get going. It will be a great race and i’m tipping a double figure chance who needs a little bit of luck in running to get the win. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
2017 Emirates Melbourne Cup – 3200m
1. Hartnell (57.5kg): 128 Timeform Rating high last prep and ran 123 second up. Strange lead in prep but may very well have just been focused on this all along. Will be there at the end a chance coming into the straight but it’s hard to see him going any better than 3rd with this weight. Hard also to see him dropping out of top 10.
2. Almandin (56.5kg): 119 Timeform Rating winning last year with 52kg. Heartbreak City ran a 123 and Hartnell 122. Big step up in weight today. Looked very good on lead in runs and no dramas with the last start fail. Ready for a staying test. Gapped them to 3rd last year remember.
3. Humidor (56kg): 129 Timeform Rating last start over 2000m in the Cox Plate coming off 121/122 and 126. Huge query to stay the genuine 3200m distance today and completly untested.. but you have to have a throw at the stumps don’t you. Hard not to respect but at the price you do have to just take him on.
4. Tiberian (55.5kg): 119 Timeform Rating last run and peak run heading over here. First time over distance and didn’t see out 4000m in the past. Two lead in runs obviously ideal progression. Been lumped a fairly hefty weight all things considered. Barrier will require a brilliant ride.
5. Marmelo (55kg): 120 Timeform Rating and ran 119+ at Caulfield last start. Best over these distances so obviously more suited here. Got charmed run in Caulfield Cup to still only run 6th. Up in the weights compared to a few better positioned rivals and barrier makes it tough.
6. Red Cardinal (55kg): 117 Timeform Rating well below other internationals. Midfield type runner with a horrible barrier which seemed the nail in the coffin for mine. A step below the very best needed here. Only a brutal tempo would give him the chance from so far back.
7. Johannes Vermeer (54.5kg): 122 Timeform Rating career peak first up at Caulfield and then 120+ last start. Needs to match those figures up to this distance. Clearly has to be respected but clearly has been well found in the markets to the point where it’s hard to back him.
8. Bondi Beach (54kg): 122+ Timeform Rating on best in the past. Best ratings are on softer tracks than expected here. Just can’t have this year on the two runs to date.
9. Max Dynamite (54kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Came into this off a horrible Timeform rating as only run since June 2016 on the flat. Would need to have found his Melbourne Cup form from 2015 to compete. Can sit close to speed from a good gate.
10. Ventura Storm (54kg): 119+ Timeform Rating. Came to Australia with high hopes and showed a 118 Timeform Rating two back before getting galloped on in the Caulfield Cup. Was flying up to that point. Lameness issues always very hard to overcome so no surprise on the price drift. Boom Time has been beating him at home by all reports.
12. Wicklow Brave (54kg): 116 Timeform Rating. One i’m happy to just keep taking on. Can’t win this for mine.
13. Big Duke (53.5kg): 115 Timeform Rating. Just missed in the Sydney Cup. Good St Leger win two back and just wasn’t suited last start in the Moonee Valley Cup by the tempo run. Maps Midfield from the barrier and has to be considered a chance on his very best runs in the past with this low weight.
14. US Army Ranger (53.5kg): 112 Timeform Rating. Clearly below the very best needed to win this. One i’ll happily take on.
15. Boom Time (53kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Should have no queries over the distance today and has to be respected off the Caulfield Cup win with only 53kg today. Can run well from on speed from the barrier.
16. Gallante (53kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Not the worst run in the Geeling Cup as a lead in but he clearly needs wetter ground that what is on offer today. Pacemaker.
17. Libran (53kg): 105 Timeform Rating. G3 winner over 2000m and should have no issues with the 3200m.. but he looks well below the class needed to win a race like this on what I’ve seen in the past.
18. Nakeeta (53kg): 114 Timeform Rating. Ebor winner who should sit midfield today. This is a big jump in class and the horse just hasn’t measured up to the top level for me. Happy to take him on even after gelding.
19. Single Gaze (53kg): 118 Timeform Rating. Continues to run well without winning and has to be praised for the Caulfield Cup run. Step up to 3200m looks fine on what we had seen so far this prep but I can’t see this horse beating all of these top quality animals home.
20. Wall of Fire (53kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Last start career peak improved from 116+. Flew home in the Herbert Power for 2nd and was a clear eye-catcher. Best runs have been 2900m distances in the past. Coming out of one of the hottest run races as a lead in which is a big positive and C Williams onboard. Position in run only query but has positioned forward in the past.
21. Thomas Hobson (52kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Two lead in runs this prep 2nd in the G2 Doncaster Cup and 7th in the Lonsdale CUp. No questions about this horse staying the distance.. more about the horses quality as an 8YO. Positions midfield/on speed but tough from barrier.
22. Rekindling (51.5kg): 121 Timeform Rating. Comes into this off a high rating St Ledger defeat in 4th and drops 6kg. Gets in very well at the weights and from barrier 4 can position further forward than normal (not last). Will need luck in running but clearly one to beat.
23. Amelie’s Star (51kg): No Timeform Rating. Well in at the weights based on the Bart Cummings win… but was that her brand final? Failed in the Caulfuield Cup since which is a huge concern. Weir is good enough thought to get her ready.
24. Cismontane (50kg): No Timeform Rating. Would be shocked if he could lead them around start to finish and win. Take on.
Top Chances
Rekindling
Wall of Fire
High Chances
Humidor
Johannes Vermeer
Big Duke
Boom Time
Almandin
Medium Chances
Hartnell
Tiberian
Marmelo
Ventura Storm
Amelie’s Star
Low Chances
Red Cardinal
Max Dynamite
Nakeeta
Single Gaze
Thomas Hobson
Bondi Beach
Very Low Chances
Wicklow Brave
US Army Ranger
Libran
Gallante
Cismontane
