It’s been a long summer of racing but we are now down to the business end of the 2YO racing with the Blue Diamond upon us and the Golden Slipper just around the corner.
This 2017 Blue Diamond Stakes rates as one of the most open in recent memory with no ‘clear’ favourites unlike previous years. On ratings, there are several key chances with 6 runners being put up in single figures on final fields and I believe these ratings are generally all deserved.
This race, for mine, will come down to which horse is not just the best horse in the race, but the best positioned for the most economical run during the race. Adding to that, the horse will need to find clear running at the top of the straight.
The speed map for the race is very hard to figure out with several different moves available in the first 200m from different riders, so I have provided you below with four different educated guesses at how the speed map may just work out. Please note, with just the one turn, sitting 3-wide and even 4-wide is not as large a negative as you may think, but 4-wide and 4 back could see a horse have to travel 6-8 wide around the turn giving up lengths to much better positioned runners.
| Speed Map 1 —————> | ||||
| #17. Sheer Madness | #15 Roomooz | #7 Cao Cao | #1 Property | #5 Wait For No One |
| #8 Taking Aim | #13 Tulip | #9 Muraahib | #3 Jukebox | #12 Formality |
| #6 Aspect | #4 Pariah | #11 Catchy | #10 Will’s Bid | #16 Blondie |
| Speed Map 2 —————> | ||||
| #17. Sheer Madness | #13 Tulip | #1 Property | #16 Blondie | #5 Wait For No One |
| #15 Roomooz | #4 Pariah | #7 Cao Cao | #3 Jukebox | #12 Formality |
| #8 Taking Aim | #11 Catchy | #10 Will’s Bid | #9 Muraahib | |
| #6 Aspect | ||||
| Speed Map 3 —————> | ||||
| #17. Sheer Madness | #15 Roomooz | #7 Cao Cao | #1 Property | #5 Wait For No One |
| #8 Taking Aim | #13 Tulip | #9 Muraahib | #3 Jukebox | #12 Formality |
| #6 Aspect | #4 Pariah | #11 Catchy | #10 Will’s Bid | #16 Blondie |
| Speed Map 4 —————> | ||||
| #17. Sheer Madness | #7 Cao Cao | #1 Property | #16 Blondie | |
| #8 Taking Aim | #15 Roomooz | #3 Jukebox | #5 Wait For No One | |
| #6 Aspect | #13 Tulip | #10 Will’s Bid | #12 Formality | |
| #4 Pariah | #9 Muraahib | #11 Catchy | ||
Catchy – $6 – Barrier 13 – Craig Williams
Race favourite and the pick of top jockey Craig Williams who had his choice of the top rides. Catchy is 3 runs for 3 wins with two short distance wins along the way including a tough 1100m win last start over Limestone.
Last start sat off them and came over the top late fighting off the top quality horse in Limestone. The obvious positives for Catchy are the runs to date where the horse has overcome positions out the back and run on strongly through the line and won in fighting finishes. The extra 100m will be very important to Catchy having enough time to come around the field to win this race.
The negative is the horses race pattern and with such a wide barrier drawn, she will need to get the perfect ride, or simply be a few lengths better than this field (which she may very well be). At least she didn’t get the inside barrier!
Pariah – $7 – Barrier 11 – Blake Shinn
In The Blue Diamond Prelude the well fancied Pariah was fairly beaten on the day by Property having to come from out the back. On the two runs to date, this has been the horses pattern and that won’t change today. The increase to 1200m will obviously see the horse hitting the line strongly. but just like with Catchy, Pariah will need a barrier to suit and especially not Barrier 1.
Drawn the barrier inside of Catchy and will be trying to position 1 spot ahead of the race favourite, or position inside of the race favourite forcing Catchy to run a 4-wide line throughout.
Since 2010, Only one winner has come into the race without winning the prior race (Pride of Dubai) and in my opinion, that was one of the lowest Blue Diamonds in recent history.
Will need to be very good and have improved to win from the expected mapping.
Formality – $9 – Barrier 12 – Ryan Moore
Two starts for two wins heading into this.
The first win was painless in a maiden at Werribee as a short priced favourite on the day. Didn’t beat much on that day but jumped very easy, was tested a little bit throughout but won very easy by over 4 lengths in the end.
Hasn’t been seen in over 3 weeks since winning the Chairman’s Stakes beating home some good types in Time Awaits and Spoils on the day. Flew out of the barrier on the day to get a nice spot in running which is a big key to this horses chances in the Blue Diamond. Once again had the horse outside pushing ahead but wasn’t troubled by it… can do it at both ends.
Mapped outside of the expected race favourite Wait For No One, Formality should get a nice run outside of the race leader… but there is a chance Blondie is pushed up to try and grab the rails run out front, but i’m not seeing enough early speed in the horses legs to achieve this.
I believe Formality had a bit up the sleeve on what we saw last start, but this is a step up in class again in terms of this field and Formality will have to pinch more of a break into the straight to hold off the contenders.
Property – $7.50 – Barrier 3 – Joao Moreira
An impressive horse that will position just off the speed in the ideal position in the race. Barrier 3 was the dream draw today with a 3-6 barrier ideal for the run required for this horse to find his very best.
Won the first C/G Preview in impressive fashion positioning just off the speed and flying right past those on speed. The time run was very sound and showed that this is a serious horse.
The last start win was as impressive from a 3-wide run that got a bit wider around the turn. Everyone seemed to focus on the run of Pariah, but in my opinion, these two horses positioned where they would in the main event and Pariah was never going to get close to or go past Property.
On current speed mapping, I have Property getting the 1 back the rails run just off Wait for No One who should give him a solid run into the race. Will need a bit of luck at the right times to get runs, but if they come, i can’t see any horse getting past Property.
There is also a small chance that Azazel kicks up from the inside today also and holds out Property for the 1 back the fence position and Property would find a better spot 2 out. This would be ideal in my opinion.
Jukebox – $8 – Barrier 4 – Luke Noel
Easy enough win first up in a Geelong maiden. Jumped nicely enough to sit just off the speed on the day box seating. Got to the front around the turn and finished off nicely enough when was a little green overall.
Last start up in class at Caulfield was very well backed on the day in the Inglis Premier. Jumped well enough on the day but wasn’t pushed out, happy to take a sit behind the $2.20 favourite and leader in Perast. Settled well and got the ideal splits in the straight down the rail and just went straight past them.
Drawn the perfect barrier today in number 4, outside of a main rival in Property, the speed mapping has Jukebox settling 1 out 1 back off the back of a very strong competitor in Formality who should take Jukebox a long way into the race. Could get caught 3-wide but every chance that would be with cover with 3 speed runners in the race.
Word is that Jukebox wasn’t even 100% last start and will improve onwards again. Big chance.
Tulip – $8.50 – Barrier 8 – Damien Oliver
One of the few runners in this race with a load of potential to still give with the step up to 1200m. Tulip settled out the back in her very first run over 1000m at Moonee Valley when winning very impressively on the day by 1.5 lengths.
Last start at Caulfield over the 1000m was given an absolute gem of a ride box seating off what was a very solid tempo on the day. Tulip had to do a lot more work early in things than the previous start and certainly felt the pinch late.. it was a very good run certainly but it said to me the horse was looking for 1200m. Will improve loads for this run.
Goes into the race positioning perfectly in a midfield position 1 off the rails. Get the feeling the horse will appreciate settling in this position and looks a live danger to the favourites.
Azazel – $21 – Barrier 1 – Kerrin McEvoy
Two runs this prep heading into the Blue Diamond. Both forgive runs.
First up Azazel was very well backed 3rd favourite. Was well out from a wide barrier but wasn’t pushed along and had to settle 3-wide the trip. Ran on nicely enough into 2nd but was no match for Property. Did find the line well and was a clear eye-catcher for me on the day.
Last start over the 1100m from another outside barrier jumped well and pushed forward this time. Had to sit 3-wide the trip once again. Traveled only fairly around the turn but was beaten with 200m to go. Looked very flat on the day and simply forgive with the wide run.
Had no luck both runs this prep and looks to be a type that will be well suited ridden quietly from an inside barrier. Got the ideal draw in barrier 1 today and looks the big value runner of the race. Should be 2 back the rails behind Property but there is every chance they use that early speed to kick up to sit behind the leader.
Wait For No One – $26 – Barrier 10 – Regan Bayliss
Early 2YO that scored well at course over 1000m in October before a respectable 3rd in November. Two runs in this prep for a 6th (as favourite) and 3rd.
First up this prep at Caulfield over the 1000m he jumped out well from the inside barrier and was also pushed along to hold the lead. They went along at some very solid sectionals throughout and the leaders felt the pinch with 200m to go.
Last start was a much better run off a moderate speed on the day. Jumped well from an inside barrier (6) and pushed on to lead again with relative ease. Was able to save alot of ground and get an easy time out front and led all the way until the final 50m when Property and Pariah who were both 3-wide the trip came over the top late. Was an improved effort.
Certainly had every chance last start and on that run I can’t have him a winning chance, but he certainly could get a nice run out front and be in it a long way. Should lead today.
Aspect – $51 – Barrier 14 – Luke Currie
The word around the tracks was that Aspect was well fancied as the McEvoy stables best chance for a Blue Diamond this year and Aspect started well fancied in the market first-up. Settled 1 out 3 back and was bustled along from a long way out failing to make up any ground. Last prep measured up down the Flemington straight to beat Cao Cao, Wait For No One and Azazel from the back.
This is the type of runner you can expect to see improvement from in this race and looks to be an ideal blowout chance that won’t be fancied one bit in the race.
Barrier has all but ruined all of the horses chances for mine today with a 3-wide+ trip or a run from out the direct back on the cards.
Cao Cao – $31 – Barrier 2 – Mark Zahra
Had two runs last prep with a 2nd to Aspect at Flemington before a 2.8L win over some very average types at Moonee Valley.
Cao Cao was very well backed heading into this prep off a slashing trial effort. Positioned on speed outside of Wait For No One in 2nd and while the horse fought the jockey a little, there really wasn’t much of an excuse considering Wait for No One beat him by lengths and Property + Pariah flew right past.
Will get a much easier run today one would imagine from the inside barrier and will position, most likely, one out, two back in running. Has the speed to push further forward, but I believe they will try and get this horse to relax as much as possible by taking a sit.
Win wouldn’t be an absolute shock on how well the stable rate this horse, but i can’t see it here.
Taking Aim – $26 – Barrier 6 – Craig Newitt
Maiden – yet to score a race win. Two runs to start the prep up at Gosford and then Randwick with a 3rd and 2nd beaten fairly on both occasions.
Last Start over the weekend he ran behind Ducimus in the straight race at Flemington over 1100m when settled off the speed (jumped awkwardly) in the early stages and came just a little too late. For mine, there were two better horses on the day and Taking Aim will need a more forward run to be a factor. Good enough barrier but I have the horse settling 3/4 back in the field at best.
One i’m happy to take on but could consider for exotics.
Spoils – $51 – Barrier 17 – Ben Melham
Maiden. Went close last prep in October defeated 0.1L. First up run settled on speed with Formality and was left for dead with Time Awaits running past and some very average horses left behind in 4th and beyond.
Last start at Caulfield over the 1100m was fairly beaten on the day by Limestone, Tulip and Chateau. Jumped well enough from a wide barrier and got to settle 1 out 1 back. Got going early and around while she hit the lead at the 200m, she was quickly gobbled up and was no match.
Hard to suggest the improvement from anywhere to win this race and barrier 17 is the nail in the coffin. Take on.
Muraahib – $34 – Barrier 15 – Steven Arnold
This is a horse we just don’t have any handle on due to the ease of wins in much easier company. I personally think he is a very good horse and the two wins were more than satisfactory to have him measuring up in this grade of race today.
First up in Adelaide jumped awkwardly from an inside barrier and took a sit just off the leader. Settled well on the day. They didn’t run it very hard overall out front and Muraahib was able to find a way off the rail from the 400m and was very impressive the final 100m.
The last start run at Sale was in a very small field. He was able to jump well and sit on speed. I can personally see him doing similar in this race and settling around midfield throughout. He had the race all his own and he pushed them along at a medium tempo without really any testing tempo. Held the horse until the final 300m before seeing what was in the tank without pulling the whip and he found 5 lengths on the field.
Just how good is he? We don’t know going into this, but there is certainly a query over just how hard he has had it heading into this. I was hoping to see him get in with a barrier 1-6 to settle and sit off them, but from barrier 15 today, I can’t see him getting anywhere closer to the speed than midfield 3-4 horses off. Will need to be a top class horse to overcome this barrier today.
Roomooz – $20 – Barrier 5 – Dwayne Dunn
Beat Joloe Rose first up in Adelaide, the same horse Muraahib beat.
Last start at Caulfield went around in the Catchy/Limestone/Arctic Angel race. Jumped only fairly from an inside barrier and found herself 3 back the rail behind Limestone inside of Catchy. Out for a run around the turn behind Catchy and while she finished off nicely enough, her sectionals weren’t any better than Catchy or Limestone on the day.
Would need to improve onwards and upwards and get a run on from 500 out to have a chance. Drawn ideally with a barrier to get a suck run 4 back the rail or 1 off the rail… but i can’t suggest a win. Has been backed.
Blondie – $51 – Barrier 9 – No Jockey Notified
One start for one win at Moonee Valley last start infront of Zarpoya and Balle D’or. Jumped okay but not brilliant, but fought for the lead and took it pushed along. Still found a way to finish off the race which is fairly impressive, but there were certainly some hard luck stories behind on the day.
May attempt to push the speed along today, due to being inside of the two likely leaders, but I’m assuming from what i’ve seen that the horse doesn’t have the natural early speed to match it out of the gates. I struggle to see this horse winning or even running a place.
Will’s Bid – $61 – Barrier 16 – Damien Lane
Geelong maiden winner. Jumped okay and was bustled along early from a wide barrier and settled 3-wide the trip. Settled well in run and the speed wasn’t overly strong. Pushed along in the final 400m and got going early and went right past them. Wasn’t really any top quality horses in the race is the issue but it was still a nice tough win.
Last start in the Prelude jumped okay from a wide barrier and had to go back, settling out the back 3-wide the trip. Was certainly never a chance from that far back… saved ground and tried to go through the inside and did finish off nicely without being asked of anything the final 200m.
Has some ability but looks to be a horse that needs a good barrier to have any chance of running well and barrier 16 isn’t it. Even with a top quality jock like Damien Lane, it’s hard to see this horse doing something better than Catchy or Pariah from the back.
Sheer Madness – $151 – Barrier 7 – Stephen Baster
First run at Caulfield in the Preview was only fairly out of the barriers and settled worse than midfield. Got out behind Property and was hard ridden into the straight. Kept on finding in the straight and battled on into 5th. Had two swoopers out wide go past.
Last run at Caulfield over 1100m in the Prelude was slowish out from the inside barrier and had no early speed. Pushed on and still had to settle last on the rails. Ridden for luck in the straight and started to pick up when not exactly ridden out the 250m to 150m when i thought could have tried for a run… then not ridden out the final 150m really. Unknown what he still had to give, but it’s unlikely it’s enough to win this.
More than happy to bet around Sheer Madness, but I would note that he isn’t the worst horse in the race.
Top Chances
Property
Catchy
Jukebox
High Chances
Formality
Tulip
Medium Chances
Pariah
Wait For No One
Cao Cao
Low Chances
Muraahib
Aspect
Taking Aim
Very Low Chances
Blondie
Sheer Madness
Will’s Bid
Roomooz
Best Bet
Property @ $7.50
