Welcome to The Profits 2016 Caulfield Cup Preview. It’s been a fairly interesting Spring and with Hartnell (who spanked the Caulfield Cup favourite Jameka by a lazy 3 lengths hard held last start) going to the Cox Plate, we are left with a fairly wide open race. As with most cups in the past, it’s all about setting a the speedmap, rating each runner compared with the internationals and figuring out the potential winners based on the expected speed. I’ll take you through the field runner-by-runner and give you my rankings at the end.
1. Preferment (57kg): Dispite winning the BMW over this distance in the Autumn, there is still a query over him at the 2400m today. The last few preps he has shown some form before a grand final, but there has been none of that at all beaten over 6 lengths all three lead in runs including last start beaten nearly 4 lengths by Jameka. Top weight makes it very hard especially from barrier 15.
2. Our Ivanhowe (56.5kg): Doomben Cup winner in the Autumn over 2000m and the Timeform rating was higher than any the internationals have produced ever! First up ran very well for 5th in the Makybe Diva over an unsuitable distance. Never got going last start behind Hartnell in different shoes and was simply a forgive run. Important inside barrier today to get a very nice spot midfield at worst and can go one or even two better than last year on best form. Well over the odds today. Most important part about this horse is his turn of foot off a strong tempo as shown in the Doomben Cup when held up on the rails until about the final 350m when got the chance and went past them after found his feet. If anyone tells you his a wet tracker, just tell them his best run to date was a Group 1 win on a Good 3 and then tell them to stop listening to the radio.
3. Exospheric (55.5kg): Hard to ignore today based on the Timeform information with the highest career peak on record of the international runners. Most importantly today, excluding the Ascot fail where the horse failed on the good to soft track, the horse has recorded 121+, 122 and 121 Timeform ratings. A tough out and out stayer that will be getting back and doing his best work over the final 600m-800m. Query over the glue on shoes today for mine.
4. Scottish (55kg): Comes into this race today off a career ‘peak’ at York winning in August matching the Ayr September 2015 peak of 119 Timeform rating… scoring a 119+. Previous two runs this prep were 116+ and 116+. Has tactical speed and from a positive barrier will get forward in running. His first ever run in a Group 1.
5. Sir Isaac Newton (55kg): Comes into the race with the second highest Timeform rating of the internationals, one below Exospheric (which works out at the weights today). Ignore his very last start and look back to his two previous runs where he produced a career peak of 119 followed by a career peak of 121+. Can sit handy enough to be just off midfield off the rails which is the important part and will be let go with a solid final 800m sprint. From where he will be in running he should get a good tow into it behind a horse like Real Love or Tally.
6. Tarzino (54.5kg): Beaten 7L, 6.1L, 7.4L and 8.1L this prep yet the stable are pushing onto this race today believing he is doing the right things at home. On his best form lines, he clearly is a big chance here, but it’s all but impossible to see that specific run today based on previous starts this prep when compared to previous preps. Maps to sit just off the speed.
7. Almoonqith (54kg): Never got going last start at Flemington on the firm track conditions according to the stable. Similar conditions today and well up in class over the 2400m. Looks to be really wanting 3200m+ to find the potential for a win. Sandown Cup, not Caulfield Cup.
8. Sir John Hawkwood (53.5kg): Sat on speed last start in The Metrop and won very well over some second and third rate types. Previous prep in G2 Brisbane Cup ran well just beaten 2nd and has previous won in G3 company. No issues over the distance range and a good barrier today.
9. Articus (53kg): Group 3 winner over 2000m and then beaten 5th in G1 in Munich last start. Timeform rating of 113 on Flat. The last four runs this prep have been 113, 112, 113 and 112+ ratings. Rates WELL below the other international horses on what has been shown on the track to date. A bit of hype around about him but I couldn’t touch him on form or from the barrier.
10. Tally (53kg): Group 2 winner last prep and Group 1 placed just 1.3L behind Jameka that day and meets her better off at the weights. Ran well first up before a very good Turnbull run heading into this out the front facing the breeze in a fast run high rating race. Only big issue today is the barrier.
11. Jameka (52.5kg): Comes into the Caulfield Cup as clear betting favourite having won just one of her last nine races. That win, while deemed ‘special’ was a fairly average Naturalism which saw Gallante, a horse wanting 3200m, run second – no surprise with the genuine tempo. Second rate horses such as Berisha, Set Square and Magnapal filled the top 5 that day. Last start in the Turnbull she was beaten 3.2L by Harnell (hard held final 100m). with 3 lengths to Tally and Preferment in third and fourth. Preferment hasn’t been going well at all this prep and doesn’t exactly frank the form of Jameka here while Tally was a huge run on speed off the hotly run tempo. She has won just one of her last 9 races! Now that i’ve given you the negatives, there are also clear positives such as her ability to jump and position forward as well as her staying power. Most importantly, she sneaks in low down in the weights. Only concern is the fact her peak rating has been on a soft track.
12. Real Love (52.5kg): Gone through the grades very well this prep running well first up second over the unsuitable 1600m. 2nd up ran well without impressing in the Naturalism when simply not suited by the sit and sprint nature of the race on a slow track which wasn’t ideal either. She was really well backed last start in the JRA and got the sectionals run out front she was hoping for, sat closer to the speed than expected from a nice barrier and won with authority. Looked the ideal lead in to this race today and she gets in well at the weights. Barrier 10 has her in a good position 2 or 3 wide with cover.
13. Set Square (52kg): Wide barrier and is likely to push forward to be on speed based on how poorly she ran the past few starts. This is certainly expected to happen to ensure there is a more than genuine tempo set for Jameka in the race. Can run well but on previous form i can’t see a place.
15. Sacred Master (51.5kg): Ran home well last start in the Metrop off a G3 win at Newcastle in the Cup the previous start. Decent barrier today and will be just off midfield. Stable think he is a sneaky chance with the low weight today. G2 winner back at home in NZ and placed in G1 Auckland Cup.
17. Pemberley (50.5kg): Simply amazing to consider this horse is even competing in a Group 1 race. Handicap winner two back at Murtoa, then last start ran 3rd in the Herbert Power beaten by Big Memory and Assign.. but was in the finish. Nicely weighted but really struggle to suggest this horse has the class to finish closer than 5th. Horrible barrier.
18. Go Dreaming (50.5kg): Listed class winner. Fairly beaten last start in the JRA Cup behind Real Love. Can’t see the win today. Expect to push forward from the inside barrier to be on speed.
19. De Little Engine (50kg): Sneaks in off a very low weight. Ran home quite well from the back last start behind Jameka and Tally etc and meets them much better at the weights. Will be out the back and running on. The harder they go the horse it could suit.. but even then, the horse has to improve a lot to place.
20. Vengeur Masque (50.5kg) SECOND EMERGENCY: Only got up to a 106 Timeform Rating back home before flying out here to compete for the new stable.
Top Chances
Jameka
Our Ivanhowe
Sir Isaac Newton
High Chances
Real Love
Tally
Exospheric
Medium Chances
Scottish
Sir John Hawkwood
Sacred Master
Articus
Tarzino
Low Chances
Preferment
Almoonqith
Set Square
De Little Engine
Pemberley
Very Low Chances
Vengeur Masque
Go Dreaming
Betting Strategy
1 unit Our Ivanhowe @ $31
2 units Jameka @ $4
0.5 units Sir Isaac Newton @ $14
0.5 units Exospheric @ $14
