The Blue Diamond Stakes is one of my favourite races of the year. Since Reward for Effort won at double figure odds in 2009, all winners since have started $10 or less, cementing the Blue Diamond as a ‘favourites’ race. While my form this year suggests the favourites are clearly the horses to beat, there are two to three runners at large odds that are genuine contenders and can win thanks to favourable barrier draws. This race was absolutely thrown on it’s head by the barrier draw. If Flying Artie and Extreme Choice drew barriers 2-8, it would be a brave person who would have tipped against either of them taking out the race. But thankfully for us, this hasn’t occurred and they both start from the car park in 11 and 15. Let’s get into the form and as always, i hope yours matches up with mine!
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Blue Diamond Stakes
1. Extreme Choice: Two runs to date for two strong wins. Times very sound overall also. The issue is if he is really wanting the 1200m and that is why D Oliver jumped off for mine. Personally I’m not 100% convinced that’s the best reason to jump off the horse, but when you add in barrier 13 and the fact the yard have all but ruled out pushing on for the lead, I’m expecting them to have to ride him three-wide the trip which is a big negative for a horse with such distance queries. Is he good enough to win? Hell yes. Would I have been tipping him from barrier 2 to 6? I would have had him very much in the mix more than I do now. I would probably need around $3.70 on current ratings to be on him.
2. Valliano: What exactly has he done wrong to be a $34 chance? Will have improvement from last start to come and certainly gets the 1200m with little issues. Good barrier and a nice early speed means he will get a nice enough spot in run. My only issue is if this horse is a genuine top class Group 1 horse. Has to prove it today. Certainly over the correct odds.
3. Flying Artie: Massive win first up coming from wide and back to run down some decent types including Star Turn. Barrier 17 has made Damien Oliver’s job a hell of a lot harder and markets have reacted by pushing his price well out in the markets. There’s every chance Oliver may try a Jump slowly tactic, move to the rails and try and get a 5-6 back spot and ride for luck.. or he may believe he has the very best horse in the race and try and sustain the 4-5 wide run from the 400m. This bloke is top class and a potential Group 1 winner in the making, but there is a lot against him.
4. Star Turn: Every chance last start in the Blue Diamond Prelude and looked home for all money until Flying Artie came over the top. Drawn fairly in barrier 10 today and we can expect him to be one of the 4-5 fighting for a leading position. Tempo will be much stronger than last start that’s for sure and he won’t get any favours.
5. Power Trip: Looked a very good type in his first prep. Two runs this prep have not even been close to good enough to suggest a win or even place here. Has to improve significantly.
6. Highland Beat: Always been a word around about this horse after his first win at Moonee Valley, but the sectionals just weren’t top class. On last start run a place looks to be the very best option.
7. Hell of an Effort: The value of the race, he proved to be a good sort winning his first two races at Geelong and then Caulfield. Has the turn of foot in the early stables to get a solid position in running. He started favourite last start for a good reason and we know why. Just ignore that run, something was clearly wrong that day after leaving the barriers awkwardly, the horse never wanted to go. There are about 10 runners that can ‘run well’ but aren’t a chance of winning. His best runs are good enough to compete for a win here.
8. Hey Doc: Continues to run well in top class races. Last start ran on well enough but lacked the sectionals to really get the job done. Better barrier today.. i still think he has to improve significantly on the last two runs to be going close to beating all of these today.
9. China Dream: Thought his run last start was quite good, but clearly Flying Artie is the best thing to come out of that race and China Dream will need to find lengths.
10. Samara Dancer: Two runs two wins. Last start was given a brilliant ride and did everything right to take the win and land the plunge. Did bleed that run which is a bit of a concern. Perfect barrier in 5 today, but there is certainly a query over just how far back she will get having not shown a massive amount of early speed in her two runs to date. Can win.
11. Concealer: Very good type. She looked the real deal and times suggested it first prep at Flemington. Slow away first up this prep and was a sectional star. Drawn very well. As long as she jumps better today (have to believe she has it right) then she is a HUGE chance for mine. Top pick.
12. Sweet Sherry: Looked a nice enough type winning in her first prep at Flemington, but the horse hasn’t measured up this prep. Ran home okay enough first up from the back, but not enough to convince me of a win especially from barrier 16.
13. Kinetic Design: Horrible barrier. Hasn’t won a race to date. All that being said, looked a very good type in first prep. Was traveling quite well last start in the Prelude when never got a run. There are horses in this race I know can’t win at half this horses odds. On the runs to date and the unknown from last start, I have to consider the horse a chance and I know the horse goes best when allowed to wind up, so the wide barrier doesn’t bother me as much as it should for others.
14. Zamzam: Ran home just okay for mine last start at Caulfield. Previous run at Moonee Valley was a nice win on a soft track. Certainly has to improve on from what I’ve seen to date. Barrier helps.
15. Miss Nymeria: Loved her two runs to date. Sectional star both runs. Finally drawn a perfect gate today. Have to expect they will decide to push her strongly out of the barriers to get a position midfield at worst and ride her appropriately. Can win.
16. Areti: I liked the run last start at Moonee Valley from just off the speed… peeled around them and won with authority. The sectionals just don’t suggest she is a top class horse though and I’m on her in the futures after the run.
17. Selenia: A bit unlucky to be emergency today. Two runs this prep from on speed positions she ran very well both times. Can run well again here but won’t be winning.
18. Seaburge: Ran on Wednesday so doubtful of running even if gets a run. Probably the biggest unknown factor of the races. Certainly doesn’t look anything special on the first up run, but they wouldn’t be trying to run here without thinking he is a live chance.
19. Revolving Door: Ran on Wednesday so doubtful of running even if gets a run. Nice enough first ever run when 4th to Flying Artie. Improving type. Place at best for mine though.
Verdict
The Blue Diamond is known for being a race with a breakneck pace where the very best 2YO out sprints the rest of them. On the potential leaders in the race today, if Extreme Choice doesn’t lead them around, I can’t see a horse that actually wants to put that speed on today and I get the feeling we are in for a medium pace. I would be surprised if the winner didn’t come out of my Top or High chances category in this race, and it would be a first for me in feature races if the winner wasn’t found in the Top, High or Medium chances. Barriers are critical for winning these races and Concealer as the barrier to match the form lines. Hell of an Effort is the massive value in the race when we ignore the last start run and rate on the previous run. Kinetic Design is the outsider of the field today, but on previous form lines and the last start run not telling us much, I think KD has to be considered a live chance.
Top Pick: Concealer
Value Pick: Hell of an Effort
Top Chances
1. Extreme Choice
3. Flying Artie
11. Concealer
High Chances
7. Hell of an Effort
10. Samara Dancer
15. Miss Nymeria
Medium Chances
2. Valliano
4. Star Turn
6. Highland Beat
9. China Dream
13. Kinetic Design
14. Zamzam
Low Chances
5. Power Trip
8. Hey Doc
12. Sweet Sherry
16. Areti
19. Revolving Door
Minimal Chances
17. Selenia
18. Seaburge
