So we now sit at the quarter way point of the season. With that we are seeing some teams slowly make a gap on their division rivals. Injuries to Pitching has been a huge story this week. Another top young pitcher in Jose Fernandez for Miami is out for the season. We can kiss goodbye any hopes of them pushing for a wild card spot. Texas Rangers hopes of taking out the AL West are all but gone now with injuries to 2 key pitchers in Perez and Harrison. Both gone for the year and one career possibly over. By the way you can still get on the A’s at a good price for the AL West. Still at $2.10. Typical gambling, always trying to take advantage of someone else’s misfortunes. All seriousness it’s not good to see so many quality pitching gone. Plenty of challenging teams will make trades soon to try and salvage a season and strengthen their bullpen. It’s getting to the time where we see pitchers making rare starts or just coming up from the minors. It’s hard to predict these games as the form lines can be so skewed. Possible trap for those looking to have a punt, which is us. On to it we go then, looking to avoid said Traps.
Sunday 18th
Best Bet – San Fran -1.5
Next Best – Dodgers -1.5
Suggested Multi – Cardinals into Dodgers at $3.07
Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals (4am AEST)
Braves ($2.05) – Harang
Cardinals ($1.80) – Miller
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.83) under 7.0 ($2.02)
Prediction
Cardinals. Miller has not been a huge success this season, even though he has a solid record at 5-2 with an ERA of 3.22. He has not made a dominant start and he continues to walk way too many. However, his record against Atlanta is good and his record at home is even better. The Braves don’t score many so if he can keep his walks down and keeps them off base he should be able to add a W to that 5-2 record so far. Harang has continued to exceed any expectations on him so far this season, he started great however has since dropped a little. St Louis need to get as many wins out of this home stand to catch ground on the Brewers. They are a great price at home and i can see them winning this in a low scoring game.
Suggested Bet
Cardinals
LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks (10am AEST)
Dodgers ($1.64) – Kershaw
Diamondbacks ($2.31) – Anderson
Over/Under – Over 8.0 ($1.96) Under 8. 0 ($1.88)
Prediction
Dodgers. Kershaw went 7 innings in both games since his return from injury. He has been super impressive in both those starts. Striking out 9 and walking 0. Opening day in Sydney Kershaw got the win over the D-backs in a strong outing, and you can see him producing that again as the Arizona hitters are batting a lowly .194 against him. Anderson is making only his 2nd start of the season . He was solid in his debut earning only 1 run in over 5 innings. Just can’t see D-backs getting to Kershaw enough to get the win. Dodgers on their day can score runs, however are rather inconsistent. Good price for Kershaw to grab another W
Suggested Bet
Dodgers -1.5
Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers (10am AEST)
Blue Jays – Buehrle
Rangers – Ross
Prediction
Blue Jays. Buehrle improved to 7-1 on the season early this week. He continues to put up solid performances. We know the Blue Jays can put up runs with that explosive home run hitting lineup. Ross is 0-4 with a 7.65 ERA in his last 5 starts. There are reports that he may not start this game so we will have to wait and see on that for the suggested play. Otherwise very confident Buehrle continues to get the W’s. Going to take the -1.5 on Toronto if the pitching match up stays like this.
Suggested Bet
Blue Jays
Other Suggested Bets
Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
Marlins have been hot with the bat, Lincecum has been hot on the mound and his team are swinging the bat as good as the rest of them. Giants for me. Solid at home. Taking the -1.5
Monday 19th
Best Bets throughout the week will be posted on Twitter once markets are available
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees GAME 2 on the Day
Pirates – Cole
Yankees – Nuno
Prediction
Pirates. Pittsburgh bats have slowly started to get back on track and pitching has improved, actually losing more games than they should of due to some blown saves. They are always within a few runs and rarely get blown apart. With their young ace Cole on the mound they are likely to get a great chance to notch up a W in the big apple. Nuno is erratic and currently sits at 1-1 in 5 starts with an ERA of 4.94 in those starts. Value will be the way we play this. That’s surely on the side of the Pirates.
Suggested Bet
Pirates
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins (4am AEST)
Mariners – Hernandez
Twins – Nolasco
Over/Under –
Prediction
Mariners. King Felix was back to his solid self last outing, even though he managed to get him self ejected for the first time in his career. Decent numbers up against these Twins bats. Last 3 seasons he has an ERA of 0.79 against the Twins, and pitching a shutout his last time at Target Field. Nolasco has been solid in his last few starts but has always been known to give a lot of hits away. Hence his season 2-3 record and 5.51 ERA. Mariners get this on the back of Hernandez.
Suggested Bet
Mariners
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros (4am AEST)
White Sox- Danks
Astros – Peacock
Prediction
White Sox. Houston rightie Peacock is still searching for his 1st win. In 5 starts he has an ERA of 4.40. Danks will get through a decent amount of innings as he usually does but he needs to work on his control, walking way too many to give himself a chance of a decent record. However he does have a pretty solid batting line up protecting him. Led by rookie sensation Abreu, who leads the league in Home Runs. The Sox can get runs and I see them doing that here. Could be a high scoring game but think the price for Chicago will be good enough for me.
Suggested Bet
White Sox
Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox (Live ESPN 10am AEST)
Tigers – Sanchez
Red Sox – Peavy
Prediction
Red Sox. A nice game to view on your Monday morning. Peavy was shaky in his last start giving up 9 hits and 6 runs in 4 innings. He is 0-2 with an ERA of 3.82 in his 5 home starts this season. Sanchez is returning from a little lay off due to injury currently at 0-2 with an ERA of 3.13 in only 5 starts. Boston need to get some wins at home, they need to start putting up some runs. Interesting to see what the Over/Under plays at as I can see some runs being scored in this one.
Suggested Bet
Over on O/U’s depending on market.
Tuesday 20th
Best Bets throughout the week will be posted on Twitter once markets are available
Only 5 games today, so while most the MLB take a break it would of been nice to have a day off. However there is One game I will be betting in.
Houston Astros vs Anaheim Angels (12pm AEST)
Astros – Keuchel
Angels – Richards
Prediction
Angels. Richards has been super impressive this season currently sitting at 4-0 with an ERA of 2.42. 6th in the AL in WHIP at 1.06. Pitching at least 7 innings in 5 of his 8 starts. Angels need that pitching as their bullpen is woeful. If Richards can go deep into the game again then the Angels should be able to win here. They can get runs off the backs of Trout and Pujols. Keuchel was impressive in his last outing pitching the full game and getting the shutout. Currently he sits at 4-2 with an ERA of 3.06, which is a decent record so far. He has been solid but can also give up runs early which hamstrings this already struggling Astros batting lineup. Enough upside to suggest Richards leads the Angels to a W. They need to make ground on the A’s, as pitching issues have destroyed any chance the Rangers had on the AL West. Can grab a W here.
Suggested Bet
Angels -1.5
Do Yourself a favour an make a futures play
A’s to win AL West into Giants to win NL West @$6
A’s look to all but have the AL West, Rangers have gotten very weak with the injuries and don’t think the Angels can realistically catch them with that bullpen. Giants continue to be solid and if pitching stays healthy and bats keep going its tremendous value. You can always trade out later in the season. These prices will only get shorter.
As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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