Welcome back to another preview of some selected games we have seen value in. There has been some very under whelming markets lately with bookies setting some really short prices and just leaving traps everywhere for punters to fall into. There seems to be a tad bit more value with O/U markets as we are seeing some inexperienced pitchers get the nod and tired arms getting a bit over worked as we near the All Star break. Having said that tomorrow has a few Head to Head games with value they I’m keen on. I have also started to look at a few other plays for matches other then H2H and O/U lines to get that extra value.
Sunday 22nd
Best Bet – Phillies/Cards 0 runs 1st inning $1.64 (2U)
Next Best – Giants $2.02 (1U)
Next Best – A’s/ into Over7.5 Rays/Astros $3.24 (1U)
Philadelphia Phillies vs St Louis Cardinals (6am AEST)
Phillies ($2.33) – Hamels
Cardinals ($1.64) – Wainwright
Over/Under – Over 6.5 ($1.80) Under 6.5 ($2.05)
Prediction
Cardinals. 2 pitchers in fine form. Wainwright 9-3 with an ERA of 2.15 and Hamels 2-3 with an ERA of 2.78. Hamels is on a roll at the moment, over 23 scoreless innings in a row and an ERA of 1.56 since the start of May. Both teams can at times struggle to score runs, and the Cardinals have been a huge disappointment this season and only some great pitching has them a winning record. Should be a low scoring affair and we may not see runs till late with each pitcher fading. For the first time this season as an official play I’m looking at 0 runs in the1st innings, could probably multi that into 0 runs in the 2nd also if your that way inclined.
Suggested Bet
0 runs in 1st inning $1.64
Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds (6am AEST)
Blue Jays ($2.15) – Happ
Reds ($1.74) – Leake
Over/Under – Over 8.5 ($1.83) Under 8.5 ($2.02)
Prediction
Blue Jays. Happ is coming of one of his best starts, allowing only 1 run in 7 innings. Currently 6-3 with an ERA of 4.05 he faces a pitcher who has had a rough month in Leake. The Reds pitcher is posting an ERA of 8.22 for the month of June, though 3.80 on the season and a record of 4-6. A great Home Run hitting field there is bound to be a few runs with the Toronto line up being so powerful. Reds have been pretty good of late in getting runs as well with speedy leadoff hitter Hamilton getting his team off to solid starts. I’m predicting some runs so the Over 8.5 line is pretty good, however If its a high scoring game I’m going to play the Blue Jays to win as they just have that extra bit of power.They did combine for 23 runs on Saturday with Blue Jays getting the win with 4 home runs helping out.
Suggested Bet
Blue Jays
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks (12pm AEST)
Giants ($2.02) – Vogelsong
Diamondbacks ($1.83) – McCarthy
Over/Under – Over 9.0 ($2.07) Under 9.0 ($1.79)
Prediction
Giants. Even though Vogelsong has not been his best on the road this year he has overall been pretty solid. 4-3 on the season with an ERA of 3.94. McCarthy currently 1-9 with an ERA of 5.18 hoping to avoid the dreaded lose number 10. The price put up for the Giants is value, on their day they can put up runs, even though they have struggled of late. Only 2-8 in their last 10 they are starting to lose that lead they had on the Dodgers very quickly. They need to respond this series against Arizona and won 3 of 4 this season played at Chase Field. Think the value is with them and that’s they way I’m playing
Suggested Bet
Giants
Other Suggested Bets
Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A’s (6am AEST)
Oakland to continue to roll and at home are just so solid. They have a very good pitching rotation and this matchup puts a player having a career year in Chavez up against a sluggish Red Sox team who are really starting to let their season slip away. Pitcher De La Rosa has struggled on the road and this matchup is likely to continue that trend. Oakland to win ($1.69)
Future Markets Update
With $3.00 still available on the Brewers to win the NL Central, you have to have a good look at that. They just continue to get the job done. They can put up runs and have a few strong pitchers at the moment. Cardinals are realistically now the only team that can catch them but their offense has been so sluggish. $3.00 is still a great price and you could probably hedge later on if the Cards get out over the $2 mark (which I think we soon may see) for a guaranteed profit. I know there is still a long way to go but this division is a 2 horse race now.
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting, hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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