Welcome to the Round 11 AFL preview. The bye rounds are completed and the fixture goes back to a somewhat familiar structure. I say somewhat as the AFL are trialling four games on the Sunday and Sydney vs Geelong is played on the Thursday night, but we certainly won’t be sitting around for long periods throughout the weekend waiting for the footy to begin like the last three weeks.
The ladder is beginning to take real shape and there are some genuine make or break games for certain teams. West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon and Carlton are all favourites in their respective matches, but losses could easily spell a two win gap between themselves and the top eight. As much as I hate the term, the Sydney vs Geelong encounter shapes as an eight point swing, while the West Coast vs North Melbourne match is in a similar position. It could easily be a weekend of change which certainly gives each match some added spice.
BEST BET
Gold Coast to win head to head @ $2.25 through the Sportsbet “Lead at any break, money back” special.
SYDNEY ($1.49) vs GEELONG ($2.70)
AT THE SCG, THURSDAY 29/05, 19:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R22 2013 Geelong 13.14 (92) dftd Sydney 7.6 (48) at SS
Line: Sydney -14.5, Geelong +14.5
The Sydney Swans are currently seen by most as the form team of the competition with Port Adelaide. They have won their last five games relatively comfortably, which included quality opponents such as Hawthorn and Fremantle. John Longmire’s men come off the bye refreshed and face a side that has played twice since the Swans last game, including a trip over the Nullarbor. They also have a fairly clean bill of health, with only ruckman Mike Pyke missing from the best 22, who is still struggling with a hamstring strain. The Swans are in a prime position.
The Cats were outstanding early against North Melbourne during the first Friday night game at Simonds Stadium. As they usually do, the intensity dropped once in control, but the whips were cracking ferociously when the game was on. Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly returned to their old midfield roles with success and are likely to stay there even with the inclusion of Steve Johnson. There will be two key outs for the Cats in Corey Enright and Tom Lonergan, with the later especially creating issues for the Franklin and Tippett match ups. Mark Blicavs is likely to be thrown in the deep end.
The Cats will play their third game in 12 days on Thursday night, which has included two interstate trips. The losses of Enright and Lonergan further complicate an already daunting task, giving Sydney a significant edge.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 17 POINTS
ST KILDA ($10.00) vs COLLINGWOOD ($1.06)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 30/05, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R6 2013 Collingwood 15.13 (103) dftd St Kilda 11.11 (77) at ES
Line: St Kilda +45.5, Collingwood -45.5
The Saints share three wins with three different clubs, but it is becoming more apparent with every performance that a bottom three position beckons. It isn’t anything we didn’t originally expect, but after such a strong start there were a few hopeful supporters that thought things would be better. Alan Richardson can’t afford to be getting off track with this side either. Chasing unrealistic goals is just going to lengthen the development process which must be seen as the number one priority. After a couple of promising performances, Blake Acres will miss around 2 months with an ankle injury.
The Pies haven’t quite been themselves since the bye break. It unexpectedly went down to Adelaide the week before and had to fight like hell to get over the line against a competitive West Coast side. The form of Travis Cloke continues to be a massive concern for Nathan Buckley. After averaging 3.1 goals and 2.6 contested marks per game in 2013, Cloke has dropped to figures of 1.1 goals and 1.3 contested marks in 2014. 10 goals nearly halfway through the season is an awful return for a forward most considered top two in the league at the start of the year. Nathan Brown’s retched run with injury continues, while Luke Ball misses with a calf.
The Pies will produce a much more comprehensive performance against the Saints. Expect Travis Cloke to be given plenty of inside 50 opportunities.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 53 POINTS
MELBOURNE ($6.75) vs PORT ADELAIDE ($1.12)
AT TIO TRAEGER PARK, ALICE SPRINGS, SATURDAY 31/05, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1 2013 Melbourne 8.6 (54) lost to Port Adelaide 19.19 (133) at the MCG
Line: Melbourne +37.5, Port -37.5
Melbourne come off the bye break still baring smiles from its Round 9 victory against Richmond. It would have loved to have played the form side of the competition at the MCG, but the game has been sold to TIO Traeger Park in Alice Springs, which will be the first premiership points played for at the venue. A dominance at the stoppages and accurate kicking for goal set the win up for Melbourne against the Tigers, but they are sure to be met with a completely different intensity this week. Chris Dawes is a big loss through suspension, but James Frawley returns in his place.
Port Adelaide has shown once again that they are a serious contender for the premiership with a good win against flag favourite Hawthorn. In saying that, Port Adelaide was down in most statistical areas against a Hawks side that was depleted to say the least. To still get the points despite that is an effort in itself, but Ken Hinkley will be looking at why some categories were so lopsided. Good teams just find a way to win and it appears that Port is developing that characteristic. Angus Monfries is out with an ankle injury, Cassisi a knee and Hartlett misses a week through suspension.
Melbourne is improving every week, but Port will be far too strong this time around.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 49 POINTS
BRISBANE ($2.90) vs CARLTON ($1.42)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 31/05, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R9 2013 Brisbane Lions 12.13 (85) lost to Carlton 13.20 (98) at the Gabba
Line: Brisbane +16.5, Carlton -16.5
The Lions desperately needed the bye after having to deal a virus that spread through the side before the North Melbourne clash. It looked as if the Lions travelled with ill players hoping they’d improve, which ended in chaos with the late withdrawal of Tom Rockliff and the last minute replacement of Joel Patful after the final team sheets had been handed to the AFL. A group of selected players also appeared to be struggling on the ground, which probably justifies the extremely low total of 88 contested possessions. Rockliff and Patfull have fully recovered and return to the line-up with a host of other changes.
It was another impressive performance by the Blues, getting over the Crows by 5 points. Kade Simpson continued his outstanding form with 37 possessions, while Dale Thomas finally provided a moment of significance in the navy blue, kicking a clutch late goal. Bryce Gibbs has also lifted his output, especially at the stoppages where he is averaging 5.1 clearances and 10.8 contested possessions a game. Let’s hope he continues to play the inside midfielder role for the rest of the season. Andrew Walker misses with a knee, while Carrazzo and Robinson return.
Carlton is putting together some decent performances and should deal with Brisbane comfortably. The -16.5 line doesn’t look enough.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 38 POINTS
ESSENDON ($1.60) vs RICHMOND ($2.40)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 31/05, 19:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R23 2013 Essendon 9.11 (65) lost to Richmond 15.14 (104) at the MCG
Line: Essendon -9.5, Richmond +9.5
One of the main questions to come out of this weekend is what will the Bombers produce. Its form since Round 4 has been mediocre at best with wins only coming against the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane by small margins. Mark Thompson has insisted that the week off has done his team a world of good, but I need to see some proof in the pudding before believing any of that. Positively, the effort after half time against Sydney was eye catching. Paul Chapman is a big inclusion and will be fresh after two weeks off. Joe Daniher has been dropped.
The opposition was poor, but Richmond really needed to make that statement in Round 10 after the Melbourne humiliation. After a week to forget, Jack Riewoldt couldn’t have made a bigger statement by kicking 11 goals and taking 12 marks inside 50. They could be the massive numbers that builds his confidence, while it was also obvious that he played deeper for longer periods. The loss to Melbourne was inexcusable, but apart from that, the Richmond form has arguably been better than Essendon’s. It was only the start of the month when the Tiges pushed Geelong to 5 points. Daniel Jackson and Trent Cotchin will be given every opportunity to prove their fitness after minor injuries last week. Ivan Maric plays his first game of the season.
The Dreamtime match seems to be growing in popularity every year. These two are currently the most difficult teams to read with North Melbourne. Richmond probably has the slightly better exposed form, which has me leaning in their direction with low confidence.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
ADELAIDE ($1.68) vs GOLD COAST ($2.25)
AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SUNDAY 01/06, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R14 2013 Gold Coast 11.17 (83) lost to Adelaide 16.15 (111) at MS
Line: Adelaide -7.5, Gold Coast +7.5
It wasn’t the result that Brenton Sanderson would want to have backed up with after such an inspired victory against Collingwood the week before. It probably indicates that the Pies were slightly off, as Adelaide bridged the gap with the help of a manic home crowd. The Blues didn’t beat the Crows in any particular area, but were just slightly more effective entering their forward arc, while Adelaide let some important opportunities in front of goal slip. The three talls of Walker, Jenkins and Podsiadly inside forward 50 is top heavy, which eventually saw the later moved to defence in the final quarter and dropped for this game.
The Gold Coast Suns just keep turning over the wins, this time against the Western Bulldogs on the back of an electrifying 8 goal third quarter. The impressive thing about the performance last weekend was that Gary Ablett was held very quiet. His low contribution was counted by the likes of Matt Shaw and Harley Bennell stepping up, while the remaining midfielders had their usual contributions. Tom Lynch has been a monster up forward with 22 goals and also leads the competition for contested marks with 22. It is difficult to believe he is only 21 with so much more development to come. Bennell unfortunately misses with a calf injury.
I really like Gold Coast’s chances here. They have won their last three interstate trips, so the Adelaide Oval shouldn’t strike fear. It is a good opportunity to take the Sportsbet head to head special this week, where you are refunded if your backed team leads at any break but loses. The Crows have won only 2 first quarters compared to the Gold Coast’s 6. The +1.5 first quarter line also looks interesting.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($5.75) vs FREMANTLE ($1.15)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 01/06, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R2 2013 Western Bulldogs 11.12 (78) lost to Fremantle 16.10 (106) at ES
Line: Dogs +34.5, Fremantle -34.5
The Western Bulldogs have been underwhelming to say the least. It sits at 3-6 and has only played two top 8 sides in the opening 10 rounds. The fixture doesn’t read well for the Dogs either, with Fremantle, Collingwood and Port Adelaide to play in the next month. There were positives to take out of the Gold Coast game though. It won both contested possessions and clearances against the team ranked 1 and 2 in those categories, proving that the stoppage work is slowly getting toward levels of last year.
The Dockers are coming off the break, but were ruthless the week before against Geelong. It was +42 for contested possession, +15 for inside 50s, +18 for clearances and +12 for scoring shots. The 32 point margin didn’t quite justify Fremantle’s dominance against another premiership threat, but it was a good indication that they have turned the corner. Luke McPharlin won’t be risked unless his quad injury is 100% healed, despite being named. Colin Sylvia is in line to make his debut for the Dockers.
These two have only met twice since 2011 and have had to wait 14 months since the last encounter. The Dockers have won those two encounters comfortably and I expect that trend to continue.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 46 POINTS
HAWTHORN ($1.01) vs GWS ($19.00)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 01/06, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R8 2013 Hawthorn 21.14 (140) dftd GWS Giants 9.3 (57) at AU
Line: Hawthorn -72.5, GWS +72.5
The Hawks would have been disappointed to lose to Port Adelaide, but it was a gallant effort with so many stars unavailable. It won a majority of statistical categories including disposals, contested possession, uncontested possession, marks, tackles, inside 50s, disposal efficiency and clearances. Hawthorn probably should have won based on those numbers, but the cream wasn’t there to finish the job. Jarryd Roughead has served his one match suspension and is a key inclusion. There are also changes off the field with Alastair Clarkson diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome, meaning he is unavailable to coach and Brendan Bolton has been promoted in his absence.
The Giants are in freefall. It was the clubs second consecutive 100 point loss and it is in danger of being the first side in nearly 30 years to lose three matches in a row by a three figure margin. It is also the second consecutive match that the Giants have conceded an individual 11 goal haul, as Jack Riewoldt mauled any defender that went to him. The concentration and confidence levels are at all-time lows. The Giants are in a vulnerable position.
There is a new face in charge of the Hawks, but don’t expect anything to change. Hawthorn will win easily here.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 87 POINTS
WEST COAST ($1.62) vs NORTH MELBOURNE ($2.35)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SUNDAY 01/06, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R8 2013 West Coast 12.18 (90) dftd North Melbourne 13.10 (88) at PS
Line: West Coast -8.5, North +8.5
West Coast couldn’t get the points against Collingwood, but it was arguably the club’s best performance of the year thus far. It led for a majority of the day and kept pushing when the Pies hit the lead in the final quarter. While 45 more possessions and an inside 50 differential of +15 should have been enough for the points, it was the first real evidence that the Eagles can match it with a top 8 side. Mark LeCras will return to the side after suspension, while Elliot Yeo is available despite losing his front teeth in a sickening collision.
North Melbourne once again started the game low on intensity and the Cats were able to get off to a fast start. North managed to even a lot of the KPIs up by the end of the game, but the differentials at quarter time would have had the coaching staff double checking their laptops. The lapses seem to be occurring every second or third week and are ultimately changing the final result.
West Coast has had the wood over North Melbourne recently, winning the last five encounters. Patersons Stadium actually suits North Melbourne as we saw earlier in the year with a win against Fremantle, but it all comes down to whether they are switched on. West Coast rightfully goes into the game as favourites.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
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