Welcome to The Profits analysis of the 2015 Brownlow Medal. 14 rounds into the year the Brownlow Medal looked all but over with Fyfe in an almost unbeatable position – Crownbet even paid him out as a winner. Then it all went downhill from there with the final nine rounds of the season resulting in no convincing polling games. Players like last year’s winner Matt Priddis finished off the year nicely with Priddis averaging an expected vote per game in the final 10 rounds.

As mentioned last year, following the Brownlow in-play can net you some big rewards with punters following us on Twitter last year noting we identified Priddis as the winner six rounds out while $13 was still available in-play, safe to say, it was a bit of a surprise to us as well, but the stats said he was all but home and you can to take the money on offer!

This year, we will be approaching the analysis a little differently. I will be uploading as per normal the database kept throughout the year by @AFL_TheProfits. His approach is very much less about the stats and more what the umpires see in a game. This allows him to see things most don’t in terms of potential for polling. I will also then be using his information below under each of the main contenders and including my statistical analysis of each contender to go deeper into the figures to try and identify factors to improve our confidence levels.

We will be live tweeting round-by-round updates of where we see the top 10 finishing after every round as well as votes to watch out for the next round, so don’t forget to follow us on @TheProfitsComAu.

2015 Leaderboard EPPG = Extra Potential Polling Game

PLAYER	TOTAL	EPPG
Nathan Fyfe	29	0
Dan Hannebery	26	1
Matt Priddis	25	6
Patrick Dangerfield	24	1
Sam Mitchell	23	2
David Mundy	22	5
Andrew Gaff	22	2
Todd Goldstein	20	3
Luke Hodge	20	0
Josh Kennedy	19	5
Robbie Gray	17	4
Scott Pendlebury	15	2

The above features the final leaderboard according to @AFL_TheProfits. As noted, EPPG stands for Extra Potential Polling Game where no votes have been awarded to a player. Priddis excelled last year with this figure. He was down for a total of 16 votes and seven additional EPPG, the most of any player for the count. It’s no surprise to see Priddis pop again this year with the most EPPG results again which puts him in a prime position to win it all. This figure is actually backed up by the statistical analysis which suggests he has the statistics to draw votes in 19 games for the season, 16 of those in winning teams.

Download the full Spreadsheet here. Please note that there are multiple tabs in this excel document.

Nathan Fyfe – $2.12

Most votes per game in a year: 1.56 (highest of the top 10)
Votes per game last year: 1.39 (highest of the top 10)
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 2.27
Games player can poll in this year: 15 – (13 Winning Team / 2 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 42
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds 4, 7, 8, 9 & 11: 5 games – 15 votes

Verdict

Nathan Fyfe played a total of 19 games for the season. To reach the predicted 29 votes from @AFL_TheProfits spreadsheet, Fyfe would have had to score an average of 1.52 votes per game. On past results, this is certainly achievable. The biggest factor in his favour is his 5 games. @AFL_TheProfits has Fyfe down for seven more polling games while we believe he has the potential of sneaking a few votes in three more games than that (small chances). If you were to apply a 2.00 average vote per game for the rest of those seven games, then you come right out to the 29 vote mark. Fyfe is a deserved favourite with the potential to poll between 26 and 32 votes on my figures with 29 being the most likely number.

Betting

All the action on Fyfe happens early. Most importantly, there are a few early games (Round 1 and 3) where I feel he could potentially over poll. Sneaking two extra votes in these first three rounds would have him in an unbeatable position. The $2.12 for Fyfe is a great price. He will reach his top vote number by round 14 and he will most likely trade into $1.40 or shorter with Betfair (also the totes – not sure if they will offer cash out though) which will allow you to make a decision to trade out of the bet for an instant profit or to ride it out. Only a massive start from a key opposition like Priddis could see him remain above $2, and even then, I can’t see him being above this mark at Round 14. Either way, you should be able to judge round by round where he is heading votes wise.

Matt Priddis – $6.8

Most votes per game in a year: 1.18 (third highest of top 10)
Votes per game last year: 1.18
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 2.36
Games player can poll in this year: 19 (highest of the top 10) – (16 Winning Team / 3 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 49 (highest of top 10)
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds 4, 6, 7 & 17 : 4 games – 12 votes 

Verdict

Last year’s winner, Priddis is a massive chance to knock of the well fancied Fyfe this year. Ignore the haters saying ‘he can’t go back to back’ and ‘umpires don’t give as many votes to previous year winners’, Priddis has actually had a significantly better year than his previous, and so has his team results wise. He played this year for a team with 16 wins 1 draw compared with just the 11 wins last year. In his 22 games this year, he had more than 10 contested possessions in every single game and this is a statistic you can’t take lightly… with contested possessions being a core component in attracting votes over the past five years. Priddis stands out with his hair, he has high contented possession and clearance numbers and put on seven or more tackles in 15 games throughout the year. Simply put, Priddis is in the eyesight of the umpires, handing them the ball after every tight contest and this results in votes. Out of all the players, he has the highest maximum polling potential, highest number of games he can poll in and most importantly, has the history last year of polling in losing teams. There is the potential for Gaff to steal some of his votes, which we have accounted for, but if this doesn’t occur, then his numbers could shoot up drastically.

Betting

Priddis is the best priced player in the Brownlow this year. Starting with a bet on him at the $6.80 along with Fyfe isn’t a bad move at all, but I do feel that you could wait until the end of Round 5 to make your move (if he polls in Round 5 then get on that phone very very fast) with three votes expected in the following two rounds, you don’t want to be getting on anytime after this. Fyfe could have had a very good start to the Brownlow and over-polled early, pushing him into about $1.70 and Priddis out over $10. Either way you go about it, Priddis is the player you want to be on.

Patrick Dangerfield – $10.00

Most votes per game in a year: 1.1
Votes per game last year: 0.95
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 2.63 (Highest of top 10 excluding Goldstein who only had 3 votes from just 1 game)
Games player can poll in this year: 13 (2nd lowest of top 10) – (9 Winning Team / 4 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 29 (2nd lowest of top 10)
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds 17,20 & 22: 3 games – 9 votes

Verdict

Dangerfield on all of my statistics and those shown above by @AFL_TheProfits suggest that Dangerfield is the worst priced contending player today in the ‘top 10’. He had just one game over 30 disposals for the year in a winning team (four in losing teams) while Hannebery, Priddis, Fyfe and Mitchell all had at least eight 30+ disposal games in winning teams. Dangerfield is certainly the one player in the league that can consistently poll with under 30 disposals, but all the statistics suggest he simply hasn’t polled in enough games to be a winning chance, missing any votes in the final game of the season and having one full game less than all the other contenders.

Betting

If you are into that type of thing, Dangerfield is a fantastic lay at $10 to win, but if you are more a Top 3 or Top 5 player, I would be a little less interested in taking him on in these markets, as Dangerfield is a consistent pole getter. As Fyfe racks up the votes, Dangerfield will fall further behind heading into the end of Round 14. If somehow Dangerfield is within 15 votes of the win, he is considered a chance, but we have him a good 4-5 back at that point.

Dan Hannebery – $12.50

Most votes per game in a year: 1.00
Votes per game last year: 0.69
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 2.20
Games player can poll in this year: 15 – (13 Winning Team / 2 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 34
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds 8, 10 & 18 : 3 games – 9 votes

Verdict

Dan was in the prime position to take the Brownlow off Fyfe with five rounds to go, but his end to the season was far from impressive. I was actually quite surprised when going over the full results for the year and only allocating a maximum of 34 votes to poll from and just 3 BOG performances for Hannebery from 15 potential polling games. The money has come for Hannebery since the close of the season, but I don’t see much value in his price anymore. Yes, he will be another who polls consistently, but he just doesn’t have the potential numbers to get those extra 3 votes required to knock off Fyfe and that’s the end game we are looking at.

Betting

I’m not convinced he has the votes this year to get the win. He had a great season but I couldn’t take him to outright beat both Fyfe and Priddis on all the figures I have in front of me. While there isn’t enough liquidity in the Top 5 markets to determine exactly what price Hannebery will be, judging by the current markets I would expect $1.80-$1.85 to be available and this looks a reasonable price to bet if you are confident of Hannebery performing well.

Sam Mitchell – $13.50

Most votes per game in a year: 1.50 (2nd highest of top 10)
Votes per game last year: 0.62
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 2.00
Games player can poll in this year: 15 (13 Winning Team / 2 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 40 (3rd highest of top 10)
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds 10 & 19: 2 games – 6 votes

Verdict

Mitchell is a very hard footballer to judge polling wise. Last year he performed poorly overall with just 8 votes, but Bartel and Cooney in recent history have both come off seasons before scoring less than 10 votes to win the Brownlow. At his best, Mitchell scored 1.50 votes per game which is just short of Fyfe’s high votes per game in a year mark which puts Mitchell in a unique position. The Hawthorn line-up has some very generic looking player outside of Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis in the middle, which means these three are more likely to pull the votes. Lewis had a fairly off year with Mitchell of Hodge generally outperforming him. Mitchell’s votes are very volatile to judge with just the two 3 vote games locked in at this stage on our stats, but there is no doubt that there are several games of at least 2 votes locked into his stats. He has the 3rd highest vote potential – he stands out – gets disposals and gets the contested possessions and clearance numbers required, so he is the bolter outside of the top two with serious claims of contention. Mitchell’s round 23 game where we expect he will get the three votes was critical in his chances this year, bringing him well into contention.

Betting

There is slight value in the price being offered. His EPPG on @AFL_TheProfits stats are low, but I personally feel on a basic statistical basis that there are unaccounted for games where Mitchell can stand up and take more than just one vote if the umpires are on his side, while there are a few others where he could get the nod ahead of Hodge in others for the three votes instead of two. Mitchell is backable at the price in the win market, while I think his volatility doesn’t make him a great top 3 or top 5 bet.

Todd Goldstein – $17.50

Most votes per game in a year: 0.32 (Lowest of top 10)
Votes per game last year: 0.14 (Lowest of top 10)
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 3.00 (Only polled in one game for 3 votes)
Games player can poll in this year: 15 (12 Winning Team / 3 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 32
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds 4, 12, 15 & 16 : 4 games – 12 votes

Verdict

Goldstein is the most over-hyped of the top 10 on all my figures. Up until this year, Goldstein is yet to break 0.32 votes per game. He would have to more than quadruple this figure to even be a contender today. Out of the top 10, he has one of the lowest potential maximum votes to poll from on my figures, with 4 standout best on ground games the key to him being considered a contender in the count. I think he has the potential to heavily under poll today and very little potential to over poll in any capacity. A prime example is the game against Fremantle – North won the game yet Goldstein lost the ruck match-up. He was given votes in most the papers and even @AFL_TheProfits gave him votes, but the reality of the matter is that he lost his role on the day and very well might score 0.

Betting

I think Goldstein would need a lot of luck to finish in the top 5 in this count and am keen to take him on in this capacity with a lay on Betfair. There isn’t any liquidity in this market just yet, but I’m expecting around the $3.00 price to be bet here.

Josh Kennedy – $30.00

Most votes per game in a year: 1.05
Votes per game last year: 1.05
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 2.10
Games player can poll in this year: 17 (15 Winning Team / 2 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 36
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds 2, 6 & 15: 3 games – 9 votes

Verdict

JPK is probably the most interesting of the two Sydney players. We don’t think Hannebery can win it purely on games he can poll in and the number of votes we think he can compile, while Kennedy is expected to poll lower overall, but has the most potential to increase his vote count. Kennedy is a nature born ball winner, he is in the eye-sight of the umpires all game and is hard at the ball. He has polled solidly stats wise in the past and this year has a strong number of games where he can pinch 1’s along the way. His final seven rounds will decide his fate this year. His EPPG figures suggest his count could be very volatile and has a blow-outs chance of winning.

Betting

Round 1 is important for the count of JPK. We have him down for 1 vote but I think if he gains a 2 or 3 vote game here, this signals the intentions of the umpires for the rest of the year and his ability to over-poll. A 3 vote game here won’t move his betting figures in that much on the markets, you will still be able to get a good price… so I’m more than happy to sit, watch and wait on him and get on after Round 1 if the votes go his way.

Andrew Gaff – $34.00

Most votes per game in a year: 0.29
Votes per game last year: 0.27
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 2.00
Games player can poll in this year: 16 (14 Winning Team / 2 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 38
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds: 0 games

Verdict

Gaff had a brilliant year, but you have to feel he is a year too early to be considered a real contender to take out the Brownlow. His more of an outside player in the team currently, not racking up the heavy contested possession disposal numbers as Priddis. Take nothing away from his year, it has been great, but when it comes down to the top votes, you have to believe Priddis will be favoured with his inside game. Gaff’s votes per game and even votes per polling game in 2014 certainly work against him. I couldn’t lock in a single confident 3 vote game for him, the only ‘top 10’ player I couldn’t do it for. May under poll heavily.

Betting

I couldn’t touch him this year unless it was to bet against him on the above figures. Yes, he has a high potential, but all the statistics point to a poor overall poll result.

David Mundy – $50.00

Most votes per game in a year: 0.84
Votes per game last year: 0.59
Average votes per polling game in 2014: 2.60 (2nd highest of top 10)
Games player can poll in this year: 17 (15 Winning Team / 2 Losing Team)
Maximum votes to poll from: 38
Lock him in for 3 votes in Rounds 14 & 16: 2 games – 6 votes

Verdict

Mundy has really gone under the radar all year just getting the job done. Stats wise, he doesn’t stand out in terms of massive contested possession games or even clearances, he just simply turns up every week and does his job with tackles, effective disposals and setting up plays. Mundy is the absolute value of the field today based on potential polling. His EPPG numbers are high and on my basic level statistics, he has the potential to heavily over-poll to the likes of Priddis last year. He finishes off the year in stunning fashion, so much so that I’m regretting cashing-out my bet on him at $100-1 half-way through the year. If he is within 15 votes of Fyfe coming into Round 15, he is a massive chance of going close. While his past statistics don’t talk him his case very well with a maximum of 0.84 most votes per game in a year, his votes per polling game at 2.60 is extremely high and our stats suggest that will be the case again this year. With 17 games to potentially poll from, 15 in winning teams, he will be the beneficiary of Fyfe’s poor end to the season.

Betting

The most interesting betting proposition of the 2015 Brownlow. Mundy is expected to gain anywhere from 15-18 votes in the final 10 rounds of the season and is currently 5th favourite with Ladbrokes to be leading at Round 5 in the Fyfe out market, which suggests he will be polling early. We have him on a minimum of 5 votes… combined, let’s set his minimum as 20 for the season with more potential in those between rounds. 20 votes should get you into the top 10 this year. It will be interesting to see what is offered on the day price wise for Mundy to be Top 10 and Top 5. The $1.75 offered 2 weeks ago for Mundy Top 10 has been snapped up and is long gone. Statistically he has the potential to get enough votes to win overall, a lot of variance in his numbers but also some very solid 2-3 vote results expected.

Betting Strategies

Strategy 1: Back the favourites

Back Nathan Fyfe @ $2.12 for 10 units
Back Matt Priddis @ $6.80 for 3.1 units
Outlay 13.1 units for a return of 8 units

Strategy 2: Mundy Top 5

Back David Mundy @ $4.00 to finish Top 5

Strategy 3: Short but Sweet

Back Nathan Fyfe @ $2.12 for 10 units
Back Matt Priddis @ $6.80 for 3.1 units
Back Sam Mitchell @ $13.50 for 1.57 units
Back David Mundy @ $50.00 for 0.42 units
Outlay of 15.09 units for a potential return of 5.9 units

Strategy 4: Back to Lay Fyfe

Back Fyfe for 10 units @ $2.12
Set 12.85 unit lay bet on Fyfe @ $1.70
Profit result: 2.2 units

Strategy 5: Lay Todd Goldstein for Top 5

Lay Todd Goldstein for Top 5 @ $3.00 (no price available as of yet – shorter than this with the bookies)