We now have our Grand Final match up of Hawthorn vs Fremantle set in stone, so it is time for the 2013 Brownlow to be given away. Just five weeks ago, it looked like Gary Ablett Jnr had Chas in his grasp.. but with four poor weeks, several players have made a late dive at the chance to win the most prestigious award in all of AFL.
Last year saw Jobe Watson cruise far ahead early and to hold on by 4 points in the end from Trent Cotchin and Sam Mitchell (who continues to over-poll). Scott Thompson and Dane Swan were both one point back on 25 while Gary Ablett who was 2nd favourite for most of the night and even got close to favourite at one point, under-polled in the final rounds and ended a disappointing 6th with Patrick Dangerfield 1 point behind him. No other player polled over 20 points, but it note-worthy that Beams (injured most of the season) ended with 19 and Pendas back on 15.
Download The Profits AFL 2013 Brownlow Votes Spreadsheet.
*Please note that the spreadsheet has two tabs. The 2013 Total Votes and Top 12.*
Betting
Oh how the markets have changed. Since the Footy Show went to air, Mitchell who was $30s has been smashed into $9s on Betfair which is giving a little more value on a few players. Interestingly, Selwood and Swan both remained firm in the markets while most of the others including Gary drifted. There is a sense in the air just like when Swan was a short priced favourite that an upset is coming.
Winner
Gary Ablett is the stand out and at $1.88. The votes suggest others go very close. We have him on top but with only two extra potential polling games and a lower amount of games won than the others who finished top 5, it may be worth savering Gazza with a sizeable bet and investing on the others.
Dane Swan is the stand out behind Ablett. He has 15 games of 30 disposals or more which tells you that he was standing out to the umpires all year. Averaging a goal a game, 3.5 tackles and 5.7 marks, he is a proven poll getter and with Beams & Ball out of the squad for a long time throughout the year, he certainly stood out.
Kieren Jack had a stand out year for the Sydney Swans. They finished top four which lets you know there are votes to go around.. but at the same time, unlike the other teams, the Swans have a very even mix of poll getters in their team. Kennedy, McVeigh, Hannebery and O’Keefe are sure to steal a few votes along the way. Our AFL expert does have Kieren Jack higher than most, but I do believe if the umpires have been watching him (he does stand out with the hair), then he will be up there in the count.
Joel Selwood is currently 2nd favourite for the Brownlow and for good reason. I actually had a nice bet on him a week before the end of the season and it seems he most likely won’t poll in the final round. That certainly hurt with Ablett finishing the year with a bang. Either way, Selwood had one of the best stretches of games in the final 8 weeks of the year you will ever see. Expect him to poll at least 14 votes to come home late. If he is on 12 or more by the end of round 13… expect him to go bloody close!
Sam Mitchell is the unders in the market. While the $30s offered to win were probably a tad of overs, the $9 currently is just stupid. He is a $20 chance in my books at the very least. I don’t 100% agree on the voting count given by my AFL guy for Sam, he has the potential and has over-polled the past two years. He is seen and the umpires love him, even if his position this year was more off the half-back getting the cheap disposals than normal. He could surprise and finish top 5.
Strategy: If you follow my horse racing tips, you know I lover a saver when I feel a runner can go close. I will be having 2 Units on Joel Selwood at $6.40, 1.5 Units on Dane Swan at $15 and 0.25 units on Kieren Jack at $50. I will then be putting a saver bet on Ablett so that no matter what the result, I lose nothing if Ablett does win.
Top 3
Ablett actually missed the Top 5 last year from a favourable position.. so laying him for Top 3 at $1.20 wouldn’t be the worst idea. That being said, I think he makes the top 3 so I won’t be touching this.
Dane Swan and Joel Selwood is where the value comes in for mine.. more looking at Swan than anyone. Swan is currently $3.40 for Top 3 and this is simply value. If these plays seem a bit risky for you, then go down one more row.
Top 5
Dane Swan at $1.80 (90% confidence)
Super keen on this market with Dane. I can’t see him finishing any further down the list than 5th overall and the price oozes value.
Kieren Jack at $4 (70% confidence)
I think as long as he polls how we expect and his votes don’t get taken by others in the team, then he will be in the Top 5. At the $4 mark, that is where you really want to be to take the odds so they appear a bet.
Team Votes
Collingwood – Dane Swan at $2.10 (85% confidence)
North Melbourne – Brent Harvey at $2.00 (80% confidence)
Carlton – Brock McLean at $3.30 (75% confidence)
Richmond – Dustin Martin at $3.60 (70% confidence)
St Kilda – Jack Steven $2.60 (70% confidence)
Head to Head
Ryan Griffen at $1.55 to beat Luke Hodge (85% confidence – Sportsbet)
Jack Steven at $1.70 to beat Marc Murphy (80% Confidence at Betstar)
Mark Murphy at $1.56 to beat David Zaharakis (80% Confidence at Betfair)
Jack Ziebell at $1.95 to beat Chris Judd (75% Confidence at Betstar)
Scott Selwood at $1.70 to beat Jack Redden (75% Confidence at Betstar)
Harry Taylor at $1.82 to beat Travis Cloke (75% Confidence – Sportsbet)
Nick Riewoldt at $1.75 to beat David Zaharakis (75% Confidence at Betstar)
Pearce Hanley at $1.90 to beat Brad Ebert (70% Confidence at Betstar)
Jack Ziebell at $2.25 to beat Jimmy Bartel (70% confidence – Sportsbet)
THE AUTHOR
I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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