This week we have 8 games to look at with Collingwood having the Bye.
Last week we had our first ‘loss’ of the season so we are now sitting on 42 from 43 bets.
Tips for Round 7
Port Adelaide ($4.90) vs Hawthorn ($1.18) – Friday 8:10pm
Hawks go into the game huge favourites. While most teams this year have not played well coming off a bye, anyone in the league can beat Port Adelaide this year.
We have jumped off the band wagon and given Port all the faith we can for the year. The prices on Monday were: Hawthorn $1.20 – Port Adelaide $4.60
Port Adelaide has won 3 of the last 4 meetings but were playing significantly better than they are now.
Team changes
Hawthorn Out: Cyril Rioli, Matt Suckling, Cameron Bruce
Hawthorn In: Brendan Whitecross, Issac Smith (New), Paul Puopolo (New)
Port Adelaide Out: Chad Cornes, Jacob Surjan, Matt Thomas, Mitchell Banner, Cameron O’Shea
Port Adelaide In: Danyle Pearce, Travis Boak, Daniel Stewart, Jay Schulz, Simon Phillips (New)
Hawks should take care of Port Adelaide and win by 26 points
Betting Option: Hawks -4.5 $1.26
Western Bulldogs ($1.70) vs Sydney ($2.16) – Saturday 1:10pm
Bulldogs and Sydney were both up and down last week. Both had ‘good games’ in parts. Bulldogs have won 4 of the last 5 games but have been struggling this year to turn up to games.
The difference in this game is the team changes, with Sydney looking the better side. The prices on Monday were: Western Bulldogs $1.68 – Sydney $2.19
Team changes
Western Bulldogs In: Daniel Giansiracusa, Brennan Stack, Ben Hudson, Zephaniah Skinner (new)
Western Bulldogs Out: Dylan Addison, Brian Lake, Jordan Roughead, Thomas Liberatore
Sydney In: Heath Grundy, Nathan Gordon (New), Alex Johnson
Sydney Out: Paul Bevan, Kieran Jack, Jesse White
Sydney should be too good against a Hall, Higgens, Lakeless Doggies. Sydney by 27
Betting Option: Sydney +33.5 for $1.26
(Sydney not lost by more than 27… was against Geelong who are much better than Doggies). Also, games in Canberra are generally low scoring.
Geelong ($1.06) vs North Melbourne ($9.35) – Saturday 2:10pm
Geelong are playing amazing football. North played well against Port Adelaide on the weekend and had a huge number of shots on the goal.
The betting does reflect how the game should be played out. Geelong has won the last 24 games at Skilled Stadium and their last 5 against North (last 3 by over 30 points).
Team changes
Geelong In: Josh Hunt, Cameron Mooney
Geelong Out: Cameron Ling, Taylor Hunt
North Melbourne In: No Change
North Melbourne Out: No Change
Geelong by 36 points
Betting Option: Better games to look at.
Richmond ($2.30) vs Fremantle ($1.62) – Saturday 4:10pm
We were amazed when we saw the prices for this game. Richmond have drawn this year with St Kilda (Playing horrible). Beat Brisbane (Bottom of the ladder) and also beat North Melbourne (bottom 4).
They are coming up against Fremantle who have taken 4 wins and 1 loss (to Geelong) and sit in 4th on the ladder. Interestingly, Richmond have won 4 of the last 5 against Freo.
Team changes
Richmond In: Daniel Jackson
Richmond Out: Shane Tuck
Fremantle In: Clancee Pearce, Greg Broughton
Fremantle Out: Ryan Crowley, Jesse Crichton
Fremantle should punish Richmond on the weekend by 37 points.
Betting Option: Fremantle $1.60 Head-to-head or for a very safe bet, Fremantle +18.5 at $1.25
Gold Coast ($8.00) vs Brisbane ($1.08) – Saturday 7:10pm
It is very amazing to see a game where a team ABOVE another team on the ladder is $8 odds vs $1.08. Brisbane is by far the better team and have been unflattered by their position on the laddar.
Gold Coast came back from 40 behind against a woeful Port Adelaide and were lucky in that game.
Team changes
Gold Coast In: Nathan Krakoeur, Joseph Daye (New), Sam Day (New), Nathan Bock, Tom Lynch (New), Daniel Gorringe
Gold Coast Out: Luke Russell, Josh Fraser, Charlie Dixon, Harley Bennell, Steven May, Seb Tape
Brisbane In: Josh Drummond, Bryce Retzlaff (New)
Brisbane Out: Broc McCauley, Jared Polec
The odds are around the correct margins and Brisbane should win by 30 points
Betting Option: Better games to look at
Essendon ($1.20) vs West Coast ($4.60) – Sunday 1:10pm
Essendon is sitting on 14 points from 6 games while West Coast are sitting on 12 from 5 games coming off a convincing win over Melbourne and 8 point loss to Hawthorn.
Essendon are flattered by these odds. They are no where near this good against a team like West Coast. West Coast have won the last 4 meetings against Essendon (32, 23, 27 in last 3).
This game is shaping as the upset of the week.
Team changes
Essendon In: Dustin Fletcher, Alwyn Davey, David Myers
Essendon Out: No Changes Yet
West Coast In: Will Schofield, Thomas Swift, Gerrick Weedon (NEW), Ashton Hams
West Coast Out: Andrew Gaff
West Coast should surprise and win this game. They have been great this year with their forward press and linked brilliantly last week. West Coast by 14
Betting Option: West Coast +55.5 at $1.26
Melbourne ($1.78) vs Adelaide ($2.08) – Sunday 2:10pm
It amazes all of us that Melbourne are sitting inside the 8! Melbourne were TERRIBLE last week against West Coast and really hurt without Scully in the midfield. They also lack any forward pressure and forward-line.
Adelaide were great against St Kilda last week considering they had a large number of injuries and still do. Tambling has been suspended for 1 week and was quite good last week. The previous game, Adelaide LOST to Port.
Adelaide have won 3 of the last 4 against Melbourne (Last win by 44 points)
Team changes
Melbourne In: Matthew Bate, Michael Newton, Matthew Warnock, Ricky Petterd, Addam Maric, Neville Jetta, Joel Macdonald
Melbourne Out: Jared Rivers, Cale Morton, Stefan Martin, Jamie Bennell
Adelaide In: Ivan Maric, James Sellar, Jared Petrenko, Rory Sloane, Christopher Schmidt, Jack Gunston
Adelaide Out: Brodie Martin, Phil Davis, Richard Tambling
We are still unsure what team Melbourne will line up with but with Sloane and Schmidt back into the team, Adelaide should take care of Melbourne by 25 points.
Betting Option: Better games to look at
St Kilda ($2.80) vs Carlton ($1.44) – Monday 7:20pm
St Kilda were woeful last week against a lackluster Adelaide while Carlton were brilliant in the 2nd half of the game against Sydney when the rain stopped.
St Kilda lose another experienced player for a week with Zach Dawson getting suspended for 1 week.
Carlton won the last meeting by 61 points… they match up VERY well against St Kilda.. similar to what Essendon does.
Team changes
St Kilda In: Raphael Clarke, Justin Koschitzke, Brett Peake, Nicholas Winmar, Arryn Siposs, Ryan Gamble
St Kilda Out: Alistair Smith, Zac Dawson, Will Johnson
Carlton In: Chris Yarran, Lachlan Henderson, Matthew Watson
Carlton Out: No Changes Yet
Carlton should dominate and destroy St Kilda by 36 points
Betting Option: Carlton +11.5 at $1.25
Betting Options in Order of Preference
(1) Fremantle +18.5 at $1.25
(2) Sydney +33.5 for $1.26
(3) Carlton +11.5 at $1.25
(4) West Coast +55.5 at $1.26
(5) Hawks -4.5 $1.26
Please note
All Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. Bet at your own risk.
