Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 4 2017 Preview. The writing was on the wall last week for upsets in several matches, but it was definitely a round that did surprise, especially with the premiers being knocked off by a Fremantle team that had been under-performing in the first two rounds. The form seems to quite clear now and i’m looking to increase the units we bet each week from here on in. I’m looking forward to a competitive round of matches. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bet (3 units): Geelong -12.5 line @ $1.92
Next Best Bets (2 units): West Coast 1-39 Margin @ $2.20
Next Best Bets (2 units): Gold Coast -4.5 line @ $1.92
Other Bets (1 unit): North Melbourne +26.5 line @ $1.90
Other Bets (1 unit): GWS 1-39 Margin @ $2.25
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
West Coast ($1.43) VS Sydney ($2.83)
Thursday 8.10pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast -15.5, Sydney +15.5
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles recorded their first loss of the season after a disappointing effort against the Tigers on Saturday where they were in full control up until half-time but didn’t kick straight… and then the rain came.
Shooting at just 32% for the game, the Eagles ended with 4 more shots on goal than the Tigers from 7 less Inside 50s, yet lost by 11. The Eagles dominated the Hitouts, won the clearances and had 13 marks Inside 50. From 25 shots on goal with 56 inside 50s, you should be putting most teams away.. instead, the Eagles ended with just 65 points.
Back home against a Sydney team that will be wanting to record their first win for the season, i’d be expecting the Eagles to make this into a shoot out with a goal of 120+ points again.
Sydney Swans
The Swans had every opportunity to celebrate the 250th game of Buddy Franklin on Friday night against a Collingwood team that was on the ropes and in the Media’s sights, but they failed to get the job done at home. It wasn’t a terrible effort and but they had every chance on the day after a slow start.
The stats show us that the Pies slightly won the Hitouts and put on an amazing 115 tackles to Sydney’s 88.. that is huge pressure. 25 to 24 scoring shots to the pies with 57 to 52 inside 50s to the pies.. dead even 40 a piece clearances and 14 to 12 inside 50 marks to the Pies.
The stats tell us how the game was run and how it was run. It was good to see Hannebery get back into form, but Reid and Franklin hardly touched the score boards up forward. The Swans are still missing key players such as Tippet, McVeigh, Heeney and Rohan who are all 2-3 weeks away while Rampe is another 7. They will continue to struggle to get wins on the board against top 8 teams.
The Eagles have won 15 of their last 16 season games at Domain Stadium and it’s hard to see this 0-3 Sydney Swans team bucking that trend.
Predicted Result
West Coast by 27 points.
Betting – Confidence 85%
West Coast 1-39 Margin @ $2.20
North Melbourne ($4.35) VS Western Bulldogs ($1.22)
Friday 4.20pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: North Melbourne +26.5, Western Bulldogs -26.5
North Melbourne
The Kangaroos come into this match with a near full-strength team with Scott Thompson returning. The Roos are 0-3 heading into this match, but should have beat the Cats in Week 2.
The Roos stuck with the Giants until half-time, but overall, they were just no match for the premiership favourites. The Roos matched the Giants in the Hitouts and tackling around the ground, but they allowed the giants an amazing 34 scoring shots, double the Roos 17. The Giants went Inside 50 71 times to the Roos 49 and the Giants won 49 clearances to the Roos just 32. It was a tough match for the Roos and while they under-performed, the Giants were red hot on the day even with some poor kicking.
A very big positive was from those 71 inside 50s, the Giants were only allowed 10 Marks in total inside 50.
Western Bulldogs
If you have been reading my thoughts in the first three rounds on the Bulldogs, I haven’t been impressed with them at all and have said all along that they will be receiving a shock loss along the way. That came at the hands of the Dockers on the weekend and even I couldn’t have seen that coming.
The Bulldogs looks relatively flat in comparison to their two previous games and even when they drew the lead back at 3 QTR time, they didn’t kick a goal in the final QTR! Ross Lyon is the type of coach to focus first on how to defeat the premiership winners from the last year and work backwards, so it makes sense that he would create a game plan to defeat the Doggies.
On the stats, the Bulldogs and Dockers had 47 and 45 Inside 50s each for 24 and 23 shots on goal. The Dockers won the Hitouts and the Dogs slightly won the tackles 63 to 54. Clearances were even at 36 to 35 and the Doggies had 12 to 10 Marks Inside 50. The stats all suggest he Bulldogs had their chances and the Dockers were simply better on the day.
This is a worry heading into this match against the Roos and I feel the odds are wrong on the Doggies being such heavy favourites.
Predicted Result
Western Bulldogs by 10 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
North Melbourne +26.5 line @ $1.90
Melbourne ($1.32) VS Fremantle ($3.40)
Saturday 1.45pm AEST – MCG
Line: Melbourne -19.5, Fremantle +19.5
Melbourne
The Demons had their chances in the first half to put Geelong away and failed to fire. The loss of Hogan and Lewis was telling late in the match and they won’t be back for another round or two. Max Gawn getting injured was a big hit early in the game and he is expected to be out for a month or more.
The jury is still out on this team after beating a lackluster Saints in R1 and failing to cover against the Blues in R2 before falling to Geelong by 29 points on the weekend.
Looking deeper into the overall stats from the weekend, it does feel as though the Demons should have been winning, yet somehow they lost by 29! The Demons had 57 to 46 Inside 50s and 32 to 26 scoring shots. The Cats won the Hitouts 56 to 32 after Max Gawn went down and the Cats won the Clearances 43 to 37. Marks inside 50 were high for both teams with 17 to Melbourne and 16 to Geelong which is hugely disappointing for the Demons in scoring just 13 goals overall.
How will the Demons measure up without Gawn, Lewis and Hogan?
Fremantle
The Dockers were horrible against the Power in R2 but bounced back at home and beat the Premiership holders in the Bulldogs by 16 points.
The Dockers hit enough of the expected KPIs that they played the game they wanted and shut down the Doggies defensively making it a hard to score match. Inside 50s for both teams were low and the Dockers controlled the Hitouts. The Dockers will need to increase their tackle count but other than that, you can see why they won.
Don’t expect the Dockers to fall back into hold habits like we saw in Rounds 1 and 2. They just got a taste for victory. It took them 11 games last year to get a win and they went on to win their next three after that. That being said, Ross Lyon has always failed to get a Grand Final win at this Stadium and this is a team that has played there just twice in the past year.
Predicted Result
Fremantle by 2 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.75
Greater Western Sydney ($1.34) VS Port Adelaide ($3.30)
Saturday 15 April 4.35pm AEST – Manuka Oval
Line: GWS -23.5, Port Adelaide +23.5
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants come into this off two solid performances against the Suns and the Roos after they knocked off by the Crows.
The Giants performance last weekend against the Roos was brilliant to watch and even better on paper. The Giants won the Tackles and Hitouts and had 71 to 49 Inside 50s with 34 to 17 shots on goal! They dominated the Clearances 49 to 32 and ran the ball very well throughout the match.
It was an elite effort last week and we can expect similar from the Giants outfit with something to prove against one of the best teams in the league.
Port Adelaide
The Power had full control over the Crows until half-way through the 2nd QTR when they started in my opinion to lose control of the game they had played up until that point and the Crows powered over the top of them. The stats show us exactly what we already know about the game.. Clearances were almost even.. bounces were almost even… Hitouts almost even, Tackles almost even, scoring shots almost even and inside 50s almost even. Marks Inside 50 (17 to Adelaide and just 9 to Port Adelaide) is the main point of difference.
The Power are still an elite team and can’t be discounted solely on a loss to the top of the table and now 2nd premiership favourites in the Crows. Yes, it will have been demoralising for the Power and they will need to be mentally strong to recover and back up against the Premiership favourites, but they do have the team required to play well.
Predicted Result
Giants by 24 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
GWS 1-39 Margin @ $2.25
Adelaide ($1.23) VS Essendon ($4.20)
Saturday 7.10pm ACST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -31.5, Essendon +31.5
Adelaide
The Crows a very solid win to start the year over the Giants while they were well below their best against the Hawks at the MCG in Round 2. They bounced back with a strong win over the Power in Round 3 by 17 points with similar KPIs all over the ground excluding the Marks inside 50 where Adelaide dominated like they have in previous games. This will be area where the Crows have excelled and will continue to win going forward.
The Crows have scored over 100 points in their last three matches and we can expect that scoring domination to continue with Jenkins most likely back into the squad this week.
Essendon
The Bombers were a bit of a surprise in Round 1 against the Hawks who have since proven to be in horrible form and they only just got over the Lions at the Gabba. The Blues as big underdogs loved the slop, beating Essendon significantly in the Clearances and most important shots on goal wit 59 to 37 inside 50s and 22 to 12 shots on goal.
Rail, Hail or Shine, i can’t see the Bombers getting close to this Adelaide team on the weekend.
Predicted Result
Adelaide by 47 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Adelaide -31.5 line @ $1.92
Carlton ($2.16) VS Gold Coast ($1.70)
Saturday 7.25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Carlton +4.5, Gold Coast -4.5
Carlton
The Blues hadn’t played too bad in their games against the Tigers and the Demons and the writing was on the wall heading into the match against the Bombers. With the rain coming, it gave them the perfect opportunity to tough out a match and they won with authority. While the margin on the scoreboard only suggests a 15 point win, if the Blues had kicked straight, it could have been 40.
Gold Coast
The Suns were almost the surprise of the round when they recorded the largest win in the history of the club over the Hawks on the weekend, 86 points, coming off a 102 point loss to the Giants… oh what a week can do for a team!
The Suns looked good stats wise in Round 1 against the Lions and they also looked good stats wise against the Hawks on the weekend keeping them to just 36 inside 50s and smashing them all over the park including a 51-26 clearance count.
Predicted Result
Gold Coast by 30 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Gold Coast -4.5 line @ $1.92
Collingwood ($2.03) VS St Kilda ($1.79)
Sunday 3.20pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Collingwood +1.5, St Kilda -1.5
Collingwood
The Pies have been the team i’ve stuck strongly with my opinion on that they have been playing the right kind of football to match almost any team this season, but they have been kicking poorly infront of goal and costing themselves chances to win. They finally got the win on the weekend over the Swans and it was a strong performance. This is a team that will continue to struggle kicking more than 90 points in a game which is a worry.
Looking at all the KPIs from the weekend, the Pies hit most of the targets i’d want to see, but there is a query over them repeating the amazing 115 tackles they put on against the Swans. Furthermore, an effort of that magnitude can flatten a team for the next week.
St Kilda
The Saints recorded their first win for the season making short work of the Lions as expected. The Saints dominated the match with 59 to 46 Inside 50s and 37 to 21 Scoring Shots in the match. Clearances for the match were even at 40-39 but the amazing stat for the Saints was the 22 Marks inside 50 to just 6.
The Pies will struggle to hold this Saints team from kicking over 100 points if they allow them the freedom Inside 50 some other teams have afforded them in the past.
Predicted Result
St Kilda by 2 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Either Team Under 19.5 Points (Tribet 19.5) @ $2.25
Brisbane Vs Richmond
Sunday 4.40pm AEST – Gabba
Line: Brisbane +16.5, Richmond -16.5
Brisbane
The Lions have been one of the worst performing teams all year but still managed a win over the Suns in Round 1 in what was a horrible performance stats wise. Their game against the Bombers in R2 was not terrible, but the Bombers showed that they are not a form side to be trusted either with a loss to the Blues. The Saints made short work of the Lions at Etihad last week with 37 shots on goal to just 21 in a match where the Lions allowed I believe a season high for any team 22 Marks Inside 50 to the opposition.
Richmond
Richmonds last two opponents at Half-Time have scored a combined 9 goals 22 behinds to Tigers 8 goals 11 behinds. The Tigers have got away to quiet starts all year and have been lucky as per the above stats to still be in the matches at half-time. They have finished strongly and got the better of their opponents each time though and they do have a fighting spirit about them this year.
The Tigers had 63 to 56 Inside 50s but just 25 to 21 scoring shots.. so they will need to make more of their kicks inside 50 in this match. They measured up in the Marks Inside 50 stats and clearances around the ground. The Tigers in my opinion are lucky they have an opponent such as the Lions in this match and i’m expecting them to extend to a 4-0 record.
Predicted Result
Tigers by 24 points.
Betting – Confidence 75%
Richmond -16.5 line @ $1.92
Hawthorn VS Geelong
Monday 3.20pm AEST – MCG
Line: Hawthorn +12.5, Geelong -12.5
Hawthorn
The Hawks come into this game at 0-3 for the season with 25, 24 and 86 point loses to the Bombers, Crows and Suns. They were horrible against the Bombers and Suns while the performance against the Crows wasn’t too bad.
The Suns won the Clearances 51 to 26 against the Hawks on the weekend while having 34 to 18 scoring shots. The terrible stat to go with that was 64 inside 50s to Hawthorns just 36!
The Hawks will be furious about their performance last weekend, but I can’t see them sealing all the cracks in the space of a week.
Geelong
The Cats haven’t had the best starts the past two matches and they will be keen to get some solid scores on the board in the first half in this match.
The Cats come into this match with a relatively full strength team that continues to jive very well all over the park. This is a Cats team that continues to get the required Inside 50s and scoring shots on the board and most certainly continue to get the Marks Inside 50. The Cats are expected to dominate the Hawks in the clearances today and around the ball which is where the game should be won.
Predicted Result
Geelong by 35 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Geelong -12.5 line @ $1.92
