Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 23 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season with the final round upon us.. and there are still a few surprises on the cards that continue to happen in what has been one of the hardest years ever to tip. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend as the final places inside the top 8 are decided. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bets
(6 units): Melbourne -9.5 line @ $1.92
(6 units): Fremantle +41.5 line @ $1.92
(6 units): Richmond -17.5 line @ $1.92
(4 units): Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.40
(4 units): Carlton +51.5 line @ $1.92
(4 units): Brisbane -12.5 line @ $1.92
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
Hawthorn VS Western Bulldogs
Friday 25 August 7.50pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Hawthorn +3.5, Western Bulldogs -3.5
Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks in recent weeks have looked a little vulnerable and the Blues took full advantage of that last week winning a first quarter for the first time in a very long time. The Hawks will be looking to finish off the season with a strong win putting in a full strength team.
Western Bulldogs
The Doggies had their season on the line last week up at Eureka Stadium and hit the lead twice throughout the match by three goals. They failed to see it out late against a Power team that has struggled to put away any top contenders all year and especially teams on the road, so it was a huge disappointment. What do the Doggies have to play for here? You would hope pride.
Summary
These two teams have yet to meet all year which doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I’d imagine that the Doggies would have started a few goals favourite at most stages throughout the year. I can’t see the Doggies putting more than 100 points on the board and the same goes for the Hawks here so i’m predicting a close match throughout suggesting the 1-39 bet is the way to go over H2H or line. The Doggies outfit has been better than the Hawks all year, but they will need to stand up and be counted here and I think they will be.
Prediction
Western Bulldogs by 13 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.40
Collingwood VS Melbourne
Saturday 1.45pm AEST – MCG
Line: Collingwood +9.5, Melbourne -9.5
Collingwood Magpies
The Magpies have very little to fight for coming off scores of 71 and 59 in recent weeks, but they did shoot out to a 5 goal lead last week against the Cats early in the match. The Pies have a number of players with questions over their heads for this match and i’d be shocked to see the team play them here. This looks like season over for the Pies.
Melbourne Demons
The Demons are heading towards September for their first finals campaign in several years and it has been a real struggle. Meeting two lower bottom 8 teams in the Saints and Lions in recent weeks has helped them, secure the position after a loss to the bottom placed Kangaroos in Round 19 derailed the season. Hogan has hit form at the right time and this is a Demons team playing well enough to take care of an under-manned Collingwood.
Summary
The Demons have everything to play for today while the Pies have nothing to lose and will play a much younger team than normal to finish the year by blooding players. It can be a scary position to face, but in all reality, this Demons outfit should have little trouble against the Pies.
Prediction
Melbourne by 32 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Melbourne -9.5 line @ $1.92
Brisbane VS North Melbourne
Saturday 26 August – 2.10pm AEST – Gabba
Line: Brisbane -12.5, North Melbourne +12.5
Brisbane Lions
The Lions have a significantly smaller injury list than the Roos coming into this and for mine a lot more to play for with a first year coach looking to prove something late in the year coming home with 5 wins in the last 11 matches after what could be described as a poor opening 10 rounds where they were lucky to come away with 1 win. This is a team that can score and is actually playing some decent football, especially at home.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
The Kangaroos have lost 10 of their last 11 with a 4 point win over the Demons down in Tassie the only win on record. The last 3 weeks have seen some really poor performances, especially last week where they stuck with the Saints early but were blown away by a really average team. On the road to the Lions, this is a game they will clearly be looking to lose.
Summary
A battle for the first draft pick in this seasons pre-season draft, the winner goes away with a strong finish to the year while the loser gets the pick. The Lions have more to play for in this match and a healthier list and home ground advantage.
Prediction
Brisbane by 28 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Brisbane -12.5 line @ $1.92
Sydney VS Carlton
Saturday 26 August – 4.35pm AEST – SCG
Line: Sydney -51.5, Carlton +51.5
Sydney Swans
The Swans have won 10 of their last 11 and have been putting teams away when they want, especially at home. Their last 3 wins at the SCG have been by 104, 42 and 67 points, showing just how well they take care of most teams at home. The only query is if the Swans are looking for a big bash to finish the season before the break or if they rest a few players and take it easy.
Carlton Blues
The Blues have only lost one game all year by more than 40 points and that was a terrible performance at Etihad in Round 19 against the Cats. Will they be able to withstand the Swans attack and cover? I think it’s a big possibility.
Summary
The Blues have played some very good matches this year including two solid performances in the past weeks against the Hawks and Eagles, while beating the Swans back in Round 6. For mine, that Round 6 performance shows that the Blues have the game plan to battle this Swans team when it counts.
Prediction
Sydney by 33 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Carlton +51.5 line @ $1.92
Geelong VS Greater Western Sydney
Saturday 26 August 7.25pm AEST – Simonds Stadium
Line: Geelong -1.5, GWS +1.5
Geelong Cats
The Cats got the job done last week against the Magpies but haven’t been able to score more than 80 points in the past 3 weeks which has been a real worry. The Cats drew with the Giants early in the year at Spotless Stadium and clearly have the game plan to stop teams scoring to win in low scoring affairs. This is the true test of the teams final credentials.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants have been much improved in recent weeks with easy wins over the Eagles, Bulldogs and Demons after struggling the previous 6 weeks before that. The Giants are coming right at the right time of year, but they do continue to struggle to put large scores on the board unlike in the early rounds of the year. The Giants have everything to play for looking to host two home finals on the way to a MCG Grand Final.
Summary
The Cats and Giants face off for the chance to host a home final in week 1 of the finals and more importantly for the Cats, to not drop down to 4th position overall having to face Adelaide in Adelaide week 1 of the finals. For this winner of this match, they secure a top 2 finish with a path which looks clear of Adelaide and Sydney until the Grand Final at the MCG. Now that’s something worth fighting for.
Prediction
Geelong by 2 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Mitch Duncan over 30 disposals @ $1.91
Port Adelaide VS Gold Coast
Saturday 26 August – 7.40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -49.5, Gold Coast +49.5
Port Adelaide Power
The Power have won 3 of their last 4 matches and a strong win today will see them secure a 5th or 4th position finish depending on results, but if the Swans record a solid win, then the Power may need to win by a certain amount on the day.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns have been destroyed in recent weeks and a win doesn’t look on the cards today, with the best this Suns team can hope for is a loss that isn’t a complete blowout. Being at Adelaide Oval, I’m not sure that is very possible.
Summary
This is a tricky game. The Suns have been terrible the past month but the largest blowout was just 58 points. With the line set at 49, I think it’s where it deserves to be.
Prediction
Port Adelaide by 47 points
Betting – Confidence 65%
Over 173.5 points @ $1.90
Essendon VS Fremantle
Sunday 27 August – 2.10pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: Essendon -41.5, Fremantle +41.5
Essendon Bombers
The Bombers have all but secured a finals spot and come into this match against the Dockers as very short favourites. They have been getting the job done against the bottom 8 teams when needed in recent weeks and have been competitive against a few others including the Crows. At Etihad and going for a finals spot, it’s hard to see the Bombers losing this.
Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers have lost by 104 points the past two weeks in a row against top of the table Swans and Tigers teams. They might be looking to end their season with a statement, but based on the past two weeks it’s really hard to see with 39 and 51 points total scored. They actually beat the bombers by 37 points early in the year so it wouldn’t be a total shock to see the Dockers play well.
Summary
The Dockers ended last year with a statement game with a win over the Bulldogs by 20 after losing the previous 4 weeks by 90, 46, 72 and 92. Ross Lyon will be looking to be very competitive against a team they smashed early on in the season. Don’t expect the Bombers to run away with it.
Prediction
Essendon by 10 points
Betting – Confidence
Fremantle +41.5 line @ $1.92
Richmond VS St Kilda
Sunday 27 August – 3.20pm AEST – MCG
Line: Richmond -17.5, St Kilda +17.5
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers are looking to finish off the season in style with a win over the Saints and a secured home final or spot inside the top 4. The Tigers have won 5 of the last 6 with only a loss to the Cats in that time. They have been winning and winning well.
St Kilda Saints
The Saints were average in the first half against the Roos but kicked away late to secure a 49 point win. Against the lesser teams this year the Saints have continued to show dominance, but the Tigers will be the testing material to finish the season. Their last meeting was a 67 point win to the Saints.
Summary
I can’t see the Saints getting close to the Tigers today as Richmond push towards September Glory.
Prediction
Richmond by 37 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Richmond -17.5 line @ $1.92
West Coast VS Adelaide
Sunday 27 August – 4.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast +10.5, Adelaide -10.5
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles haven’t won two in a row since Round 8 showing just how out of form this team has been all year. They played well enough last week against the Giants and got over the Blues in the previous week, but this is the obvious testing material for a team looking to impress in a game they must win to have a chance of finding a way into the finals.
Adelaide Crows
Just what this match means to the Crows will depend on the result of the match between the Cats and Giants as the Crows could come into this match secured top spot and with nothing to play for. If the Giants get the win, expect the Crows to play it out and play it out strongly.
Summary
Tough match to really get a grip on being in the West and the Eagles having everything to play for while the Crows may have nothing to play for come game time.
Prediction
Adelaide by 22 points.
Betting – Confidence 75%
Over 182.5 points @ $1.90
