Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 21 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season, but there are still a few surprises on the cards that continue to happen week in week out in what has been one of the hardest years ever to tip. The trend has and continues to be that underdogs are covering lines more often than normal and that’s something to keep an eye on. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bets
(6 units): Collingwood +20.5 line @ $1.92
(6 units): Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25
(6 units): Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.30
(2 units): Richmond 1-39 @ $2.10
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
Western Bulldogs VS Greater Western Sydney
Friday 11 August – 7.50pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs +4.5, Greater Western Sydney -4.5
Western Bulldogs
THe Doggies are ‘coming good’ at the right time of year, but their past four wins have been over bottom 8 teams and their final 3 matches will be the key to just how good this Dogs team is going. They struggled to put away the Lions on the weekend and this is the true test.
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants looked super dangerous on the weekend against the Demons and were able to score at will with the smaller offensive team. Mumford is a big out for the team, but with Green back in the squad this is a Giants team that could turn up and put the Doggies to the sword if they turn up.
Summary
Very keen on the Giants to step up and get the job done against the Doggies. I can’t see there being a blowout in this game with the Giants failing to shoot more than 100 points the past 6 weeks, but they have been strong enough defensively to hold out this Dogs team and rebound successfully for goals throughout the match.
Prediction
Greater Western Sydney by 24 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.30
Sydney VS Fremantle
Saturday 12 August – 1.45pm AEST – SCG
Line: Sydney -43.5, Fremantle +43.5
Sydney Swans
Won 8 of the last 9 and took care of the Cats last week away from home. head back to the SCG where they have won their last two matches by 42 and 67 points and are big favourites against the travelling Dockers. Full team and heading towards a big finals series.
Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers got the win last week over the Suns with relative ease in the end at home. They also played well the previous week against the Giants losing by just 12 points coming off two poor efforts. Won’t be scoring more than 90 points based on the past 10 rounds.
Summary
The Swans have been putting teams away the past few weeks and the Dockers will find this a tough ask. Expect the Swans to win and win well.
Prediction
Sydney Swans by 30 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $2.50
Geelong VS Richmond
Saturday 12 August – 2.10pm AEST – Simonds Stadium
Line: Geelong +7.5, Richmond -7.5
Geelong Cats
Turned over at home last week by the Swans in a match where the Cats were exposed early in the match defensively and couldn’t battle back into it enough when it counted. Dangerfield is a massive in but the Cats lose Selwood, Hawkins and Duncan. It will take an epic performance from the lesser players to get the win here.
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers haven’t beaten the Cats in a very long time, but they have been well backed into clear favourites today after the suspensions and injuries to the Cats this week. Tigers have won 6 of last 7 for a reason and every win outside of the Saints loss was by a significant margin. Only query is if they can kick enough points.
Summary
I can’t see a huge score being kicked by either team based on recent records or line-ups and i’m expecting both teams to play counter attacking defensive football. The Cats played it well against the Crows early in the year and they will put in a surprisingly strong performance. That being said, I can see the Tigers being too strong and getting there at the end of the day.
Prediction
Richmond by 16 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.10
Brisbane VS Gold Coast
Saturday 12 August – 4.35pm AEST – Gabba
Line: Brisbane -3.5, Gold Coast +3.5
Brisbane Lions
Lost 4 of the last 5 matches with just a win over the Blues in between. The Lions played a solid game at home against the Bulldogs and on that effort will be starting favourites against the Suns today.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns have been beaten and beaten convincingly the past 4 weeks. They failed to get within 23 points of the Dockers last week which is a huge concern and have failed to score more than 67 points 4 of the pas 5 matches.
Summary
The Suns will have to improve their goal kicking today. They really need to put a 100+ point score on the board to get the nod here and based on recent trends this will be hard to achieve. The Lions are playing well enough to consider as favourites.
Prediction
Brisbane by 27 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Brisbane -3.5 line @ $1.92
Essendon VS Adelaide
Saturday 12 August – 7.25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Essendon +17.5, Adelaide -17.5
Essendon Bombers
The Bombers have been putting in some very strange performances recently and they may just not be as good as we once thought. They struggled over the line last week against the Blues after coming off a 30 point loss to the Bulldogs. They go well here at Etihad but it’s hard to see them making an impact against the Crows.
Adelaide Crows
Won 5 of the past 6 and absolutely destroyed the Power last week at home. The Crows turned up last week and while they will have gone out and partied hard, expect them to turn up in each game for the rest of the year with full strength teams.
Summary
The only team to defeat the Bombers by more than 40 points this year was the Crows in Round 4 at Adelaide Oval. The Bombers have improved significantly since then and Adelaide scored 24 goals 9 kicking very efficiency on the day. I can see the Crows winning, but can’t see them pushing it out beyond 40 points.
Prediction
Adelaide by 26 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25
West Coast VS Carlton
Saturday 12 August – 7.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast -33.5, Carlton +33.5
West Coast Eagles
This team has been trading wins and loses since Round 11 of this year and on queue are in for a win against a very weak Carlton team. As expected last week and has been the trend all year, in the close matches away from home, the Eagles found another way to lose a match even with Kennedy kicking 5 goals. Back home, will be hard to beat.
Carlton Blues
Lost 7 in a row and had looked down and out against the Lions and Cats, but bounced back last week with a very strong effort to go down by 8 points against the Bombers after overcoming a first quarter onslaught. Last trip to Domain Stadium was a 35 point defeat early in the year.
Summary
It’s hard to see the Blues coming over the west and measuring up strongly against this Eagles team at home.
Prediction
West Coast by 30 points
Betting – Confidence 60%
Total Game Points Under 159.5 points @ $1.90
Melbourne VS St Kilda
Sunday 13 August – 1.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Melbourne -7.5, St Kilda +7.5
Melbourne Demons
After a solid mid-season, the Demons come into this having lost 3 of the past 4 including a loss to the Roos. They were fairly taken care of by a giants team last week that is still under-manned and with their last 3 games of the season at the MCG where they have won their last 2 matches, they need to start firing and putting some scores on the board. They haven’t scored above 90 points in the past 6 weeks.
St Kilda Saints
The Saints got back to winning ways last week against a less than convincing Eagles team at Etihad Stadium. This is their first game for the year at the MCG which is a bit of a worry and the Saints previous three games saw them kick just 57, 59 and 61 points.
Summary
This is a battle of a team out of form in the Demons against a limited line-up in the Saints having their first game at the MCG for the year.
Prediction
Melbourne by 16 points.
Betting – Confidence 70%
Melbourne -7.5 line @ $1.92
Hawthorn VS North Melbourne
Sunday 13 August – 3.20pm AEST – UTAS Stadium
Line: Hawthorn -28.5, North Melbourne +28.5
Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks were disappointing last week against the Tigers where they were never in the match from the very start. That was coming off 4 wins a loss and a draw in the weeks prior and they were due an off match. Hodge is back this week and should lead to a more settled line-up.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
The Roos got a well-needed win two back against the Demons but were then dismantled by the Magpies last week at Etihad Stadium failing in front of goal. They are better than the performance last week, but not by a lot.
Summary
The Hawks are looking to bounce back this week and will come out firing. Don’t expect the Roos to be a pushover but also don’t expect the Roos to surprise with a win.
Prediction
Hawthorn by 30 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.20
Port Adelaide VS Collingwood
Sunday 13 August – 4.40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -20.5, Collingwood +20.5
Port Adelaide Power
Didn’t turn up last week in one of their most important matches of the year and were destroyed. Has failed to kick more than 65 points in the pas three weeks is a big issue here. Clearly a team with top ability but they may even struggle to get the better of this Magpies outfit who have been playing some solid football.
Collingwood Magpies
The Pies have been playing some very good football in recent weeks and come into this match significantly under-rated. They smashed the Roos last week, drew with the Crows and come in off wins over the Eagles and Suns. They have kicked 93 or more points the past 4 weeks while the Power have struggled to score big. Expect the Pies to be hard to hold out.
Summary
Very keen to take on the Power after the last week effort and their failure to be able to score a large score in recent times.
Prediction
Collingwood by 12 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Collingwood +20.5 line @ $1.92
