Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 20 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season, but there are still a few surprises on the cards that continue to happen week in week out in what has been one of the hardest years ever to tip. The trend has and continues to be that underdogs are covering lines more often than normal and that’s something to keep an eye on. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bets
(6 units): Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10
(6 units): Essendon -24.5 line @ $1.92
(6 units): Hawthorn +4.5 line @ $1.92
(4 units): Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
(4 units): Western Bulldogs to lead at every quarter @ $1.72
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
Geelong VS Sydney
Friday 4 August – 7.50pm – Simond Stadium
Line: Geelong +1.5, Sydney -1.5
Geelong Cats
Last week saw the return to form of the Cats power forward Tom Hawkins who became just one of three Geelong players to ever kick 6 goals and have 25+ possessions in a game. The Cats made easy work of the Blues and come into this match against the Swans ready to fire. The obvious big loss is Dangerfield accepting a one match ban and missing this big game. The Cats have been hard to beat at home all year and this is the testing material today
Sydney Swans
The Swans come into this match off a poor loss against the Hawks at the MCG and travel again down to Geelong. The Swans really have failed at putting large scores past the very best teams this year and I get the feeling they will be required to score at least 90 points to win this match against the Cats. The Swans have looked vulnerable in recent weeks and the Hawks took full control of the situation last week. The Swans are clearly a force to be reckoned with, especially at home, but they will need to be at their very best to beat the Cats.
Summary
One of the toughest to call games of the round. I’m not convinced in what I saw from the Swans last week. Yes, they will bounce back, but the Cats will be looking to prove themselves as well and secure a Top 2 finish even without Dangerfield to lead them around the ground. This is the testing material for both teams.
Prediction
Geelong by 5 points
Betting – Confidence 60%
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.50
Greater Western Sydney VS Melbourne
Saturday 5 August – 1.45pm – Manuka Oval
Line: Greater Western Sydney -15.5, Melbourne +15.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants come into this match lacking in match form having won just 2 of their last 6 matches and struggling to put away the Dockers last week at home. The Giants haven’t been playing bad, just haven’t been anywhere near their top and haven’t been able to break 100 points in the past 5 weeks. The Giants injury list is long with Cameron missing 3 weeks, Buntine out for the season, Griffen 4 weeks away, Stevie J most likely missing, Greene suspended and Mumford a test.. this team will look much better by finals time.
Melbourne Demons
Just like the Giants, the Demons come into this match missing a few critical units with Hogan out for 6-8, Vince suspended and Jones a test. The Demons were terrible last week losing to one of the worst teams in the league in the Roos last week after defeating the Power at the MCG the week prior. This is a Demons team that at their best can beat anyone, but they look far from that and will struggle to break 100 points once again.
Summary
This is a battle of two teams down on their luck and form with injuries a plenty. I can’t see either team scoring a blowout here so the 1-39 type scoreline is appealing. I’m expecting the Giants at home to simply be far too strong for this Dees line-up.
Prediction
Greater Western Sydney by 20 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10
Essendon VS Carlton
Saturday 5 August – 2.10pm – MCG
Line: Essendon -24.5, Carlton +24.5
Essendon Bombers
The Bombers were well and truly taken care of last week against the Dogs in a very scrappy affair. Daniher kicked 6 but that still wasn’t enough for this team going down by 30. The previous 3 weeks though they beat the Saints, Roos and Magpies by 27 or more and back at the MCG where the Bombers have played well all year, i’m expecting the Bombers to be hard to beat.
Carlton Blues
Last week was a big mistake play for me in trusting the Blues to bounce back, but the reality of the matter is they have now conceded 112 and 123 points the past two weeks and look very vulnerable once again against a Bombers team looking to secure a top 8 spot. The Blues look to have checked out for the year and Kreuzer is a MASSIVE out for this team.
Summary
I can’t see the Blues going close to winning this today against a Bombers line-up looking to atone for last week and secure a Top 8 spot. Expect the Bombers to come out firing.
Prediction
Essendon by 44 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Essendon -24.5 line @ $1.92
Brisbane VS Western Bulldogs
Saturday 5 August – 4.35pm – Gabba
Line: Brisbane +29.5, Western Bulldogs -29.5
Brisbane Lions
The Lions are very hard to predict as a team, as to if they will turn up on the day they play. The Lions recorded a strong win over the Bombers 5 weeks back and over the Blues two weeks ago, but allowed blowouts against the Cats and last week against the Eagles. Scoring continues to be an issue for this team and they struggle to contain teams to under 100 points against.
Western Bulldogs
Won three in a row and look destined to play finals again this year as long as they can finish off the season well with a tough draw after this match. The win over the Suns two weeks ago was solid and last week they proved their worth by beating the Dons in a very scrappy match. Most importantly, they looked a unit that was playing well together. Can go well here.
Summary
Not confident enough here that the Bulldogs will blow the Lions away, but confident enough that they will take an early lead and hold onto it throughout the match.
Prediction
Western Bulldogs by 40 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Western Bulldogs to lead at every quarter @ $1.72
North Melbourne VS Collingwood
Saturday 5 August – 7.25pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: North Melbourne +11.5, Collingwood -11.5
North Melbourne Roos
The Roos had lost 7 in a row before getting a tight win over the Demons last week in Tasmania. Ben Brown continues to prove a rare briliance in a team of very average players. The Roos have lost their last 5 at Etihad.
Collingwood Magpies
The Pies this year have shown signs of a team that can beat anyone on their day and last week they took the top of the table Crows to the limit with an after the siren draw as the Crows kicked a goal to even the score. This is the Pies second visit to Etihad all year and while they did beat the Eagles two weeks back, this isn’t exactly their choice of home ground. The Pies last week looked like a team that was playing for each other and the addition of Wells saw acts of individual brilliance throughout the match. Can they repeat that effort today is the real question.
Summary
The Pies best is lengths above what the Roos can produce today. I think the game plans of both teams match up very well against each other and we can expect a tough battle won in the midfield of all things.
Prediction
Collingwood by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Collingwood -11.5 line @ $1.92
Fremantle VS Gold Coast
Saturday 5 August – 7.40pm – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle -17.5, Gold Coast +17.5
Fremantle Dockers
Lost three in a row but put in a very good effort away from home last week against the Giants pushing them right to the limit. They come up against a Suns team that hasn’t been putting many goals on the board and this is the ideal team for them to meet this week to put a 80 something score on the board and be able to keep the opposition to under 70.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns have been well beaten the last four weeks and their only win in the past seven was over a poor Kangaroos team. There are a few players standing up and being counted, but too few to matter in a game over in the West if Ablett doesn’t fly.
Summary
I couldn’t be overly confident in which team turns up for either the Suns or Dockers. The Suns are injury ravaged while the Dockers best has been good enough to beat all bottom 8 teams this year. Expecting the home team to win in a low scoring match.
Prediction
Fremantle by 18 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.00
St Kilda VS West Coast
Sunday 6 August – 1.10pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda -2.5, West Coast +2.5
St Kilda Saints
The Saints won 4 in a row over some okay teams including the Tigers but then have been dismantled the past 3 weeks having scored just 57, 59 and 61 points. To be fair though, last week they only lost by 2 points in the final minute from an unlosable position and did play a much better brand of football than they had the previous weeks. Back to Etihad Stadium where they have been fairly handy all year, they face a eagles team that have been horrible all year away from the West and must consider themselves big chances.
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles have been terrible away from home all year and it would be no surprise to see that continue here at Etihad this week. The Eagles have Kennedy back scoring goals and he will need to kick 4+ for the Eagles to have a chance.
Summary
The Saints have a near-full list and everything to fight for at home while the Eagles need to shake off the travel hoodoo.
Prediction
St Kilda by 15 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
St Kilda -2.5 line @ $1.92
Richmond VS Hawthorn
Sunday 6 August – 3.20pm – MCG
Line: Richmond -4.5, Hawthorn +4.5
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers have got the job done over the Lions, Suns and Giants in the past three weeks after a failure against the Saints. I’m not overly convinced the Tigers are ‘low flying’ right now and the Hawks will be a true test this week.
Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks have won 4 of their last 6 including a draw in that time and only a 3 point loss on the record. The Hawks are managing to keep teams to low scores while also being able to put points on the board. They have looked the real deal the past few weeks and can continue to upset top 8 teams.
Summary
This is a statement game and I think the Hawks will not only win, but win well. They will put their hands up as contenders in 2017 to be a genuine chance to make the 8 and be a chance to make it to the GF from that position.
Prediction
Hawthorn by 25 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Hawthorn +4.5 @ $1.92
Adelaide VS Port Adelaide
Sunday 6 August – 4.40pm – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -11.5, Port Adelaide +11.5
Adelaide Crows
Won four in a row before drawing against the Magpies last week after giving away a 50 point headstart at half-time. Clearly a horrible first half effort against a quality team. Back at home and the derby match against the Power… Port looked to have control in the early season Derby but stopped for about 20 minutes and that was the difference where Adelaide got on top and never looked likely to be run down. The Crows continue to play well at home and will be very hard to beat.
Port Adelaide Power
The Power were lucky to get the win last week over the Saints after being down and out. The Power have failed to score more than 65 points in the past two weeks which is a concern as the Tigers 5 matches back also kep thtem under 63 as did the Bombers back in Round 12. A few concerns about the quality of this Port team against the top teams.
Summary
Happy to go with the Crows to over-power Port Adelaide in a tough fought victory. Can’t see a shootout and expecting around a scoreline of 89 to 70.
Prediction
Adelaide by 19 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
