Welcome to The Profits AFL Preview for Round 2 of 2017. As seems to have been the case in previous years, the round got off to a few predictable results with the favourites getting up and then the outsiders came from the woodwork and knocked off a few well fancied teams including the two of the three premiership favourites. The disappointment of the round in my eyes were the Saints who look in for a tough road ahead with injury to Riewoldt likely to hurt their ability to score. Looking forward to a competitive round of matches. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bet (3 units): Adelaide -4.5 line @ $1.92
Next Best Bet (2 units): Collingwood -3.5 line @ $1.92
Other Bet (1 unit): Essendon -15.5 Line @ $1.92
Other Bet (1 unit): North Melbourne +26.5 Line @ $1.92
Other Bet (1 unit): Melbourne -28.5 Line @ $1.92
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
Richmond ($2.10) VS Collingwood ($1.75)
Thursday 30/03/17 – 7.20pm – MCG
Line: Tigers +3.5, Pies -3.5
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers looked the goods in the pre-season and they proved it last week against a Blues team that will struggle to get wins this year. The Tigers hit all the KPIs last week I want to see.
The Tigers had over 30 shots on goal from 60 inside 50s showing they got the ball in efficiently. They put the pressure on around the ground with 88 tackles laid throughout the game and they had enough of the ball with a 2-1.5 ratio on kicks to handballs.
The Tigers won’t get it anywhere as easy against the Pies this week and the one area of concern is in the ruck where they were fairly beaten last week and the Pies should have an advantage in this area. I’m also concerned about their ability to win the hard ball against the Pies after only winning the clearances by 2.
Collingwood Magpies
When you look over the stats and KPIs of last week, the Pies had every chance to knock off a lackluster Bulldogs outfit that had looked under-done in the off-season. The Pies had 61 to 44 Inside 50s yet only 1 more shot on goal. They also only converted at 46.2% while the Bulldogs went at 60%, the main difference in the game. The Doggies were also harder around the ball with 20 more tackles throughout the match.
The Pies forward-line on paper has looked the area of concern this year and that was proven in Round 1 with Moore and Cox just not working well with just 2 points between them for the night. That will need to change against the Tigers. The Pies were sensational in the midfield and around the ground winning the clearances 42 to 25 and taking 13 Marks Inside 50. The Pies really lost the game last week in the Rebound 50s stat with the Bulldogs having 56 to the Pies 27. I’m not sure the Tigers can rebound as hard as the Doggies and this may give the Pies the upper-edge with the clearance dominance and an easier time stopping the rebounding out of 50.
Predicted Result
Collingwood by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Collingwood -3.5 line @ $1.92
Western Bulldogs ($1.52) VS Sydney ($2.50)
Friday 31/03/17 – 7.50pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: Bulldog -11.5, Swans +11.5
Western Bulldogs
The Doggies in the pre-season looked to have a lot of ring rust and they showed it in Round 1 falling over the line against a Collingwood team that kicked poorly on the night.
The Doggies were smashed in the Clearances against the Pies and that is a huge issue against one of the best clearance teams from the past few years in the Swans. The Doggies key to winning, like last week, will be their top class rebound 50 work in breaking the lines and scoring efficiency.
The Doggies were killed in the Hitouts against the Pies and must be a point of contention against a Swans team that will almost certainly win the ruck.
It’s rare that a team will get a win with 44 Inside 50s, but the Doggies got away with that last week. The Swans won’t allow you to do that.
Sydney Swans
The Swans suffered a disappointing loss in Round 1 coming off a very sloppy pre-season. We gave the Power a fighters chance and expected them to Test the Swans, but we certainly didn’t expect such a big margin in the end.
On the stats card, the Swans didn’t do a lot wrong and didn’t lose in many places. They won the Marks inside 50, 11 to 7, they kicked efficiently and they only lost the clearances by 7 and rebound 50s by 7. They even won the Tackles and Hitouts and had 5 more Inside 50s, but had 3 fewer scoring shots.
I’m expecting the Swans will be more competitive in the 2nd half this week against the Bulldogs and they play Etihad very well with a 60 and 70 point win last season at the stadium.
Predicted Result
Sydney Swans 10 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Sydney +10.5 line @ $1.92
Hawthorn ($2.20) VS Adelaide ($1.67)
Saturday 01/04/17 – 2.45pm – MCG
Line: Hawks +4.5, Crows -4.5
Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks come off a disappointing loss against Essendon on Saturday evening in an effort where several key players under performed and the KPIs weren’t great. They shot just 38.7% infront of goal which was a main contributor to the loss after winning the Inside 50s by 3, Clearances by 2 and Hitouts by 8. The main figures they were beaten in on the night were Marks Inside 50 where they allowed Essendon a massive 16 to 9.. Rebound 50s 45 to 33, Tackles 65 to 48 and a huge 135 marks to just 82.
It’s very clear from that Round 1 performance that Essendon continue to have the Hawks measure, but that this new Hawks team is yet to fully gel and the game plan just simply isn’t fully in-place yet.
Adelaide Crows
The Crows were the surprise of the round absolutely destroying a Giants team that made them look second rate in the first quarter. The Crows won the next three quarters of the match by 22, 23 and 25 after losing the first by 14. The Giants weren’t helped by losing Mzungu in the first quarter and a few pre-season injuries in the lead up match, but this was a huge performance against the premiership favourites who have a load of list depth.
When you look over the stats, the performance Adelaide put on was spectacular. They had 65 to 47 Inside 50s with 37 to 21 scoring shots. They out-tackled the Giants and out-marked them… but overall they outplayed them with the Clearances being even and losing the Rebound 50s stat by 10. The ball use was A-grade level by the Crows which resulted in 18 Marks Inside 50… something that will win you almost every game of football you play. This is a team you can trust going forward at home, and away.
Predicted Result
Adelaide Crows by 30 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Adelaide Crows -4.5 @ $1.92
Greater Western Sydney ($1.13) VS Gold Coast ($6.00)
Saturday 01/04/17 – 2.45pm – Spotless Stadium
Line: Giants -36.5, Suns +36.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants put on a very solid display in the first Quarter against the Crows and then it all fell apart. They allowed Adelaide to take 18 marks inside 50 and 37 scoring shots from 65 Inside 50s.
On the other side of things, the Giants only had 47 Inside 50s with 21 scoring shots and put on just 50 tackles for the match. The Giants were competitive around the ball in the clearances, but ultimately were beaten by the shootout style match-up the Crows love to deliver.
I’m expecting the Giants back at home will have learnt a lot from that loss and the structures will not fall apart as easily defensively against the Suns.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns were quite good against the Lions after half-time.. but when you give up a 46 point lead, it’s certainly difficult to win a game.
The Suns had 3 more Scoring Shots on the day and had 74 to 42 Inside 50s which alone is an amazing stat when they still lose. The Suns won the clearances and had an amazing 17 to 7 Marks Inside 50, yet they just couldn’t convert when it mattered. They were strong on the attack but where they lost the game was after going inside 50 with Brisbane getting 56 Rebound 50s to the Suns 24.
The Suns on paper look to have a solid enough team and I think they are better than that performance on the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them give the Giants more of a test than the odds suggest.
Predicted Result
GWS by 20 points
Betting – Confidence 65%
GWS 1-39 Margin @ $2.30
West Coast ($1.16) VS St Kilda ($5.25)
Saturday 01/04/17 – 6.40pm – Domain Stadium
Line: Eagles -35.5, Saints +35.5
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles come into this after putting in what is being called one of the wins of the round. They were a little shaky early but over the course of the full four quarters they took care of North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium. Back home on familiar ground where the Eagles have been near unbeatable in recent years, the signs are there for another strong year.
There were still some worries overall for mine on the stats with where the Eagles allowed the Roos to get wins. The Roos dominated the ruck with 51 to 29 Hitouts while the Tackle count was even overall… but the Eagles had so much freedom on the night with 115 marks to the Roos 54. The Eagles had 31 scoring shots and kicked accurately while the Roos had 28, still a very high number, but kicked poorly. 56 to 52 Inside 50s makes me think twice about how good the win was and then this is further backed up by an even clearance count and an insane 19 marks inside 50 to both teams.
It’s hard to discount the effort displayed by the Eagles last week, but the Roos did give them every opportunity and they took it. I think the market is over-valuing the win.
St Kilda Saints
The Saints were rock solid in the pre-season and looked set to put in their claims for a finals run this year.. but they stumbled at the first hurdle after a strong start against the Demons. They won 2 of the 4 QTRs and the game really was lost in the 2nd QTR when they kicked 1 goal 6 to 7 goals 1.
The Saints lost the clearances and allowed Melbourne 7 more Marks Inside 50… a stat that they can’t allow against this Eagles line-up. The Saints were also fairly poor around the grounds with their pressure losing the tackle count and allowing Melbourne too much freedom with 123 marks to 64. Just to top it all off, they lost the Hitouts 54 to 19. The Saints only managed 43 inside 50s to the Demons 55 and that really is how the match was won.
As above, I think the Eagles are being over-valued for their win against the Roos, but at the same time, the Saints can’t be trusted off that performance on the weekend and the injury to Riewoldt who was a source of 4 of the 13 goals.
Predicted Result
West Coast by 25 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
West Coast 1-39 Margin @ $2.30
Brisbane ($2.95) VS Essendon ($1.40)
Saturday 01/04/17 – 7.25pm – Gabba
Line: Lions +15.5, Bombers -15.5
Brisbane Lions
The Lions got a jump on the Suns and that was the difference in the end on the weekend. Let’s not beat around the push, they stole that match. The KPIs and stats speak volumes with 74 inside 50s to 42 in the favour of the Suns. The Lions as expected struggled at the hard fall and allowed a huge 17 marks inside 50 to the Suns.
This is a Lions team destined to finish low down on the ladder and after the win on the weekend, I haven’t changed my mind one bit.
Essendon Bombers
The jury is out just how good or bad the new look Hawthorn will be this year after the Bombers knocked them off, but let’s take nothing away from the Bombers either.. they wanted the win and they fought for it. Yes, the Hawks were terrible infront of goal, but the Bombers hit enough of the KPIs and put in the effort to fairly.
The impressive part about the Bombers performance for mine was the ball delivered Inside 50 that resulted in 16 marks, while conceding just 9 at the other end. This is a team more developed and advanced in game style than I was expecting at this stage of the season after the full year off for many players.
Predicted Result
Essendon by 34 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Essendon -15.5 Line @ $1.92
Geelong ($1.25) VS North Melbourne ($4.00)
Sunday 02/04/17 – 1.10pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: Cats -26.5, Roos +26.5
Geelong Cats
The Cats were impressive in beating the Dockers over in the West on Sunday and they will appreciate backing up after travel in a Sunday match. The Cats actually had 8 less Inside 50s than the Dockers on the day and just 3 more scoring shots… so on the KPIs and stats alone, the win isn’t as impressive as on the scorecard.
The extreme positives from the Cats win were the 71 tackles they put on the Dockers to just 45, the 19 bounces to just 2… showing they were not afraid to run and carry and of course the 20 contested marks to 9.. including 11 marks inside 50.
The massive negative was winning just 18 to 63 hitouts.
The cats converted well on the weekend and were always in control of the game… so it will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure this week at Etihad.
North Melbourne Roos
The Roos weren’t as bad as the scoreboard suggests last week. They started out very well but inaccurate kicking a poor third quarter were really the differences against the Eagles on the weekend.
The Roos hit all the right numbers with 52-56 Inside 50s and 28-31 scoring shots… tackles were even, clearances were even, Rebound 50s were even and the Roos won the HitOuts significantly. They took 19 Marks inside 50 but also gave up 19.
Where I saw the Roos let themselves down was their lack of taking on the opposition by foot and this is an area of their game that they have used in the past to get the better of the Cats.
Predicted Result
Geelong by 5 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
North Melbourne +26.5 Line @ $1.92
Melbourne ($1.20) VS Carlton ($4.40)
Sunday 02/04/17 – 3.20pm – MCG
Line: Demons -28.5, Blues +28.5
Melbourne Demons
The Demons were the ‘surprise’ of the round with a very confident win of the Saints. They out tackled and out marked the saints. They were harder at the ball and got more clearances and certainly had more One Percenters on the day. Gawn won the Hitouts count by 35 and even giving up 5 more frees, they still got the win. With 55 to 43 Inside 50s, the Demons ticked all the boxes.
Carlton Blues
The Blues looked the team that would struggle the most this year with 10 players under 50 games and that was proven on Thursday evening against Richmond. At times, they looked decent, but for the most part, the Tigers killed them. The Blues had 48 Inside 50s to 61 and only put on 67 tackles to 88. There were some positives around the ball with Carlton winning the contested marks by 3 and only losing the clearances by 2. They even had 15 marks inside 50 to Richmond’s 16.
Even with those positives, Carlton were beaten by 43 points and that is with the 14 goals and only 5 points they scored… and you know they won’t kick that accurately every time with this line-up.
Predicted Result
Melbourne Demons by 46 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Melbourne -28.5 Line @ $1.92
Port Adelaide VS Fremantle
Sunday 02/04/17 – 4.10pm – Adelaide Oval
Line: Power -23.5, Dockers +23.5
Port Adelaide Power
A sensational win over the Swans has the Power well in here back at home. The Power may not have won the game on the KPIs or stats, but they did on the scoreboard from a gutsy effort around the ground and kicking straight.
Even if the stats/KPIs suggest that the Power won the match due to straight kicking and the opposition not converting their opportunities, they were very close on all the key numbers that I believe suggests that it was a very even contest. That means the Power, away from home, took it to the team considered the second favourites to take out the premiership this year.
I loved the effort the Power players put in and they really played like a brand new team compared to what we saw last year. Expect them to turn up again and put in a solid performance.
Fremantle Dockers
I don’t think the Dockers performance last week was as bad as it looks on the scoreboard. They only lost the 2nd half of the match by 3 points with all the damage being done in the first half. Poor kicking on the day and solid converting by Geelong were the key issues that affected Freo on the day. Fremantle actually won the clearances convincingly on the day and had 11 marks inside 50m, the same as Geelong… they only had 2 less scoring shots and had 8 more inside 50s.. not to mention winning the hitouts 63 to 18.. but 45 to 71 tackles was a concern and i’d expect Ross Lyon to whip the team into shape for this match.
Predicted Result
Port Adelaide by 20 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Port Adelaide 1-39 Margin @ $2.10
