Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 17 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season, but there are still a few surprises on the cards that continue to happen week in week out in what has been one of the hardest years ever to tip. The trend has and continues to be that underdogs are covering lines more often than normal and that’s something to keep an eye on. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bets
(6 units): Adelaide -18.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Geelong -15.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Sydney H2H @ $2.05
(1 unit): Gold Coast -2.5 @ $1.92
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
St Kilda VS Essendon
Friday 14 July – 7.50pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda -5.5, Essendon +5.5
St Kilda Saints
The Saints have won 4 in a row now coming off three terrible mid-season losses. They haven’t been overly convincing but their win over the Tigers on the weekend was the real deal.
14 goals 8 behinds to 1 goal 4 behinds at half-time, they had the Tigers done and dusted already at half-time. The Saints had 19 more Inside 50s, 12 more shots on goal, 29 more hitouts, 12 more tackles, 110 more disposals, 5 more clearances and actually 1 less mark inside 50 (19 to 20).
Flying currently and no injuries.
Essendon Bombers
Slow starters last week, the Dons then kicked 9 goals in a row and put the Pies away by 37 points at the end of the day in a performance we were expecting on the day. Coming off two close loses, the Dons have to be respected as they can put a score on any team.
Looking at the stats, the Bombers had similar Inside 50s to the Pies but had 7 more shots. They had 11 less hitouts but won the clearances by 8 and had 2 more marks inside 50.
Going well enough right now to match almost any team.
Summary
As the odds suggest, this looks to be one of the hardest matches of the round. The Saints have been put up small favourites after their win over the Tigers last week and I have a feeling that it is the correct decision. I couldn’t be betting here with any confidence, but I can see the Saints getting the job done in a tight contest say 90 to 83.
Prediction
St Kilda by 7 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
St Kilda 1-39 @ $2.37
Geelong VS Hawthorn
Saturday 15 July – 1.45pm AEST – MCG
Line: Geelong -15.5, Hawthorn +15.5
Geelong Cats
The Cats had no troubles last week with the Lions recording an 85 point win up in Brisbane and have a 7 day turn around to face the in-form Hawks. The Cats look to regain a fuller team than the one that faced the Giants two rounds back. The Cats made quick work of the Hawks early in the year by 86 points and they will be wanting to put them away in a similar way again here.
Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks won two in a row leading into last week where they took the Giants to the limit down in Tasmania with a Draw. Stats wise though, the Hawks actually got the better of the Giants with 9 more Inside 50s, 5 more shots on goal, 14 more hitouts and 3 more marks inside 50. The Hawks have turned their form around and have to be respected.
Summary
I want to be with the Cats in this rivalry match-up. The Cats are going more than well enough to win and cover while the Hawks will have to go to the next level, once again this week and I just can’t see their game plan measuring up to the Cats.
Prediction
Geelong by 28 points
Betting – Confidence – 85%
Geelong -15.5 line @ $1.92
Port Adelaide VS North Melbourne
Saturday 15 July – 2.10pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -35.5, North Melbourne +35.5
Port Adelaide Power
Won three of their last four with only a loss to the Tigers in that period. Absolutely dominated the Eagles over in the west and come home to Adelaide Oval where they will be hard to beat for a team like the Roos.
The Power had 7 more scoring shots, 18 more inside 50s, 17 more hitouts, 8 more marks inside 50 and 4 more clearances and of course lost the free kick count by 6.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
The Roos have lost 5 in a row and they had the game by the throat last week before Goldstein choked and missed a sitter in front of goal. They hit all the KPIs against an average team in the Dockers and had their chances.
The Roos won the clearances on the day and had their chances.
Summary
Can’t see the Roos getting close to the Power especially over in Adelaide. It’s hard to predict what kind of Roos team will turn up, but if they get behind early, I’d be expecting to see a blowout.
Prediction
Port Adelaide by 42 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Port Adelaide -35.5 points
Gold Coast VS Collingwood
Saturday 15 July – 4.35pm AEST – Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast -2.5, Collingwood +2.5
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns were dismantled by the Swans last week at the SCG after they got a win over the Roos up at Metricon the previous week.
The Suns form up there has been solid all year with just the one bad loss on the record to the Crows while they have won 4 and lost the other two by under 10 points.
Expect another solid match from the suns.
Collingwood Magpies
The Pies were looking good with 3 wins in a row, and then they dropped four in a row to some teams that they perhaps should have been able to beat in the Demons, Hawks and Bombers.
They were taken to school last week by the Bombers and the signs arn’t pretty for this team that needs to find a win. They get to face one of the lower down teams this week and will have their chance.
Summary
On paper the Pies have a much better team than the Suns, but this is Suns team that just keeps getting the job done or going very close at home. Both teams can score large numbers and it will take a huge effort for the Pies to get a win on the road after three bad defeats in a row.
Prediction
Gold Coast by 18 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Gold Coast -2.5 @ $1.92
Melbourne VS Adelaide
Saturday 15 July – 7.10pm AEST – TIO Stadium
Line: Melbourne +18.5, Adelaide -18.5
Melbourne Demons
Won 5 of their last 6 and got a win over the Blues last week thanks to a few injuries during the game to their opposition.
The Demons come into this game still with several key outs and will need a very good performance to beat the Crows here.
Adelaide Crows
The Crows come into this match firing after a huge dominating win over the premiers at home. While they need to travel away to TIO Stadium to take on the Demons, they are looking to hang onto top spot and if they bring their A game, they should be putting away this Demons line-up that is missing some essential elements.
Summary
Very keen on the Crows to win, and win big today.
Prediction
Adelaide Crows by 37 points
Betting – Summary 95%
Adelaide -18.5 line @ $1.92
Greater Western Sydney VS Sydney
Saturday 15 July – 7.25pm AEST – Spotless Stadium
Line: GWS -3.5, Sydney +3.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants have been playing good football without being overly impressive and that has resulted in two draws in a row against undermanned or lesser teams. They are vulnerable coming into this match and we can expect the Swans to take full advantage. The testing material.
Sydney Swans
The Swans have won 8 of their last 9 and have put away the Suns and Demons with authority over the past two weeks. They are probably the form side of the pack right now and face a Giants team that has drawn against the Hawks and Cats in recent weeks and also lost to the Blues 4 weeks back.
This is the time for the Swans to shine.
Summary
Expecting an upset on the cards with the Swans being far too good for this undermanned Giants team that will no longer be premiership favourites at the end of the round.
Prediction
Sydney by 18 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Sydney H2H @ $2.05
Richmond VS Brisbane
Sunday 16 July – 1.10pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Richmond -38.5, Brisbane +38.5
Richmond Tigers
Coming off two very good wins, the Tigers were completely blown off the park early with 14 goals 8 behinds conceded with just 1 goal 4 points on the scoreboard. I think we just have to ignore that game occurred.
The Tigers are clearly better than the Lions and can take care of them here.
Brisbane Lions
The Lions have been hands down the worst team in the league all year and lost every game this year by 27 points or more, with 3 wins outside of that. They lost by 85 points last week at home to the Cats and now travel to Etihad (where they play well) to fight a Tigers team that is looking to rebound from a poor effort against the Saints.
Summary
The Tigers will be looking to get a fast start this week and will be putting a large score on the board. This isn’t a game I’m overly confident to bet into though with a Lions team that can play well at times up against a Tigers team that scored 1 goal in a half last week.
Prediction
Richmond by 30 points
Betting – Confidence – 75%
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.40
Carlton VS Western Bulldogs
Sunday 16 July – 3.20pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: Carlton +11.5, Western Bulldogs -11.5
Carlton Blues
The Blues continue to play well and it was only injuries last week that saw them lose to the Demons. The loss of Cripps will be felt, but the Blues come into this game with a functioning team that is playing for each other and will be hard to beat once again.
Western Bulldogs
The Dogs looked down and out after the horrible performance against the Crows last week. They can bounce back against the Blues, but they are currently on the just watch list and very hard to predict.
Summary
In the end, I can’t take the Blues to beat this Doggies team that will be looking to bounce back with a win.
Prediction
Western Bulldogs by 20 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.00
Fremantle VS West Coast
Sunday 16 July – 4.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle +10.5, West Coast -10.5
Fremantle Dockers
Lost five in a row and then got a win over the Roos last week thanks to a poor kick late in the game that gifted them the win. The last two performances have been much better in recent weeks and they are playing a better brand of football that can win games.
The Eagles are a tougher test overall, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them measure up as long as the Eagles don’t get a 40 point lead in the first quarter again.
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles lost convincingly all over the ground last week against the Power after a nice start to the match. They were simply outplayed and showed their vulnerabilities.
This is another tough task and will be a very interesting game.
Summary
I like what I’ve been seeing the past few weeks from the Dockers while the Eagles have struggled in recent weeks as well with loss to the Demons and Power and only a small win over the Bulldogs at Etihad on the board.. they may just not be going as well as people think.
Prediction
Fremantle by 5 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Fremantle +10.5 line
