Food for throught before we go into the stats
In 2011 – Teams coming off a 6 day break are 26wins-15loses-1draw (62% win rate) and the rest are 62wins-73loses-5draws (44%)
In 2010 they were 55wins-49losses-2draws (52% win rate) and the rest were 129wins-134loses-4draws (48%)
The theory behind the stats above that are interesting is that a team coming off a 6-day break is more prepared for the coming game as they do not have that extra day to ‘relax’. Instead they are focused on training for the coming game.
This is very evident when you look at the ‘Curse of the Bye’ round stats.
The last 5 teams to have a BYE have LOST the game afterwards. These teams include Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood!
13 of the 17 teams this year have lost their game after the bye round. This is a 24% win rate.
This statistic is even more significant when you consider 2 of these wins were against teams who came off the bye.. so there HAD to be a winner!
Last year, there was one break of the above ‘rule’ in our opinion, which we won big on. Port Adelaide travelled to Darwin to play in 35’c heat and won by 1 point in a shoot out. Every player on their team was spent and had to turn around in 6 days to play Richmond in Round 9, in Adelaide, on the muddiest, wettest day you have ever seen. Richmond won by 40+ to record their first win of the year at $5-1+ odds (They had close lose form going into this game). Don’t ever take a theory at face value. Always account for other factors.
Ok, in to the tipping!
Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Team with the BYE
Collingwood Magpies
Western Bulldogs ($1.23) vs Adelaide Crows ($4.20) – Friday 7:40pm AEST
Ladder position: Western Bulldogs 13th Adelaide Crows 14th
Weather Conditions (Forecast as of Wednesday 1am): Cloudy. Scattered showers from the morning. Winds northerly averaging up to 30 km/h, increasing to 35 km/h.
Turnaround: Bulldogs – 7 Days. Adelaide 6 Days.
Bulldogs won the last 3 matchs by 32, 49 and 8. Our records go back to 2003 and Adelaide have not beaten the Bulldogs in Melbourne since then.
Both teams are averaging around 195 Kicks per game and Doggies are handballing 8 more per game, so very close on Disposals
Adelaide are averaging 15 more marks per game than Doggies. Even so, Doggies are having 1 more shot per game on goal.
Adelaide are averaging 44 Hitouts compared to Doggies 35.
Both teams have a poor Disposal per Goal average with Doggies 29.25 and Crows 30.19
Key game changes
Cooney and Gilbee are major ins for Doggies while Stack is a small loss. Schmidt is a key in for Adelaide
Who will win?
As long as the Dogs go into the game with the team named, they should take care of Adelaide. They were not ‘terrible’ last week and the extra experience will get them over the line against Adelaide who have lost their last 4 games by over 36 points each game.
Western Bulldogs by 25
Betting Option
Western Bulldogs $1.23 – Head to Head
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.01) vs Gold Coast Suns ($16.60) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST
Ladder position: Hawthorn 4th Gold Coast 17th
Weather Conditions (Forecast as of Wednesday 1am): Mainly fine. Min 5’C to Max 14’C
Turnaround: Hawthorn – 7 Days. Gold Coast 7 Days.
This is the first match between these teams and will be the first game ever in Tasmania for Gold Coast (If the teams can get a flight down there with Ash Clouds!)
Hawks average 50 more kicks per game than Gold Coast and 10 more handballs.
Hawks average 110 Marks to Gold Coasts 68 per game.
Both teams average around 65 tackles per game and Hawks lead the Hitout count 37 to 31 on average.
Disposals per Goal Hawks 27, Suns 33.
Key game changes
Roughead, Young, Renouf and Guerra all out injured for Hawks replaced with some handy players in Hale, Ladson, Smith and Bailey.
Smith, Swallow out injured for Gold Coast. Handy in’s are Hunt and Gorringe.
Who will win?
Hawks by 50
Betting Option
Stupid game, Stupid Odds. Stear clear
Essendon Bombers ($1.64) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($2.27) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST
Ladder position: Essendon 8th North Melbourne 12th
Weather Conditions (Forecast as of Wednesday 1am): Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 30 km/h.
Turnaround: Essendon – 6 days. North Melbourne 7 Days.
The last 4 games between these two teams have resulted in two wins to each team. Essendon won the last game in a close game by 3 points in 2010.
Essendon average 210 kicks per game to Roos 203.
Roos handball 12 times per game more than Essendon a game.
Both teams average 82 marks per game and 67 tackles per game and 39 hitouts per game
Disposals per Goal Dons 24 Roos 27
Key game changes
Hocking, Bellchambers and Stanton key ins with Hille, Welsh, Slattery and Colyer being dropped for Dons.
Grima and Wright in with Speight dropped and Hansen out with concussion for Roos
Who will win?
This game is very close on the stats. Essendon were horrible last week against Fremantle while the Kangaroos had a great win by 60 points against Gold Coast.
The quality of the in’s for Essendon look too good for the Kangaroos and they should win this.
Essendon by 15
Betting Option
Essendon +19.5 at $1.25
Brisbane Lions ($2.21) vs Richmond Tigers ($1.67) – Saturday 7:10pm AEST
Ladder position: Brisbane 15th Richmond 11th
Weather Conditions (Forecast as of Wednesday 1am): Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 30 km/h.
Turn Around: Brisbane 7 Days. Richmond 6 Days.
Richmond have won 3 of the last 4 games against Richmond (Including the last 2 by 19 and 26).
Both teams average around 195 kicks per game and Tigers average 10 more handballs per game.
Both teams average 80 marks per game and 68 tackles per game with Lions coming up on top by 8 per game in the hitouts.
Tigers average 26 scoring shots per match to Lions 22.
Tigers score a goal every 24.95 shots to Lions 30.32
Key game changes
Adcock is a big out for Brisbane. Drummond is a decent in.
No major changes for Richmond
Who will win?
No Merritt and Adcock in the backline for Brisbane is a BIG loss for a team that is struggling.
Richmond are not a great team but are playing consistantly. They should get in another close game.
Richmond by 10 points
Betting Option
Richmond +20.5 at $1.25
St Kilda Saints ($3.90) vs Geelong Cats ($1.26) – Saturday 7:10pm AEST
Ladder position: St Kilda 9th Geelong 1st
Weather Conditions (Forecast as of Wednesday 1am): Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 30 km/h.
Turn Around:St Kilda: 8 Days. Geelong 7 Days.
St Kilda have won 3 of the last 4 games against the Cats with the last one going to Geelong in Round 1 by 1 point.
Cats average 25 more kicks and 15 more handballs per match compared to Saints.
Cats also average 20 more Marks and 1 more hitout.
Saints average 6 more tackles per match than the Cats.
Cats average 26.4 disposals per goal compared to Saints 30.7
Key game changes
Montagna and Blake are handy in’s for Saints and Selwood is a major out for Cats
Who will win?
Saints and Cats match up very well. Selwood is a big out and Montagna is a big in. Going off the form of both teams over the last 5 weeks, you cannot pick against the Cats, they are playing well and winning the tight ones.
Cats should be too strong without Selwood.
Cats by 18 points
Betting Option
Geelong 1-39 at $2.09
Melbourne Demons ($1.80) vs Fremantle Dockers ($2.02) – Sunday 1:10pm AEST
Ladder position: Melbourne 10th Fremantle 7th
Weather Conditions (Forecast as of Wednesday 1am): Partly cloudy. The chance of isolated showers. Winds north to northwesterly averaging up to 30 km/h.
Turn Around:Melbourne 6 Days. Fremantle 7 Days.
The last 4 meetings between these two teams have us locked at 2 wins to each. Interestingly, both teams won their home games and lost their away ones.
Fremantle have lost their last 9 games at the MCG
Demons average 10 more kicks per game while Dockers average 3 more handballs.
Demons average 13 more Marks while Freo average 8 more tackles.
Hitouts are fairly even with Demons 43 and Freo 44 per match.
Fremantle average 27.29 Disposals per goal compared to Demons 29.05.
Key game changes
Mundy and Ballantyne are huge loses for Freo. Palmer and Barlow are great ins.
Petterd and Dunn are key in’s for Demons
Who will win?
Fremantle have shown they cannot travel. Melbourne lost to the best team in the league, even if they were undermanned, they would still have beaten Fremantle also. Melbourne have a few handy ins and will come into this game with a different mindset. This game will be closer than everyone expects.
Melbourne by 2 points
Betting Option
Easier games to touch. If we have to say a bet – Melbourne +30.5 at $1.20
Carlton Blues ($1.26) vs Sydney Swans ($3.90) – Sunday 2:10pm AEST
Ladder position: Carlton 3rd Sydney 5th
Weather Conditions (Forecast as of Wednesday 1am): Partly cloudy. The chance of isolated showers. Winds north to northwesterly averaging up to 30 km/h.
Turn Around:Carlton 7 Days. Sydney 7 Days.
The last 4 meetings between these two teams have us locked at 2 wins to each. Carlton came away with the victory this year in Round 6 by 16 points up in Sydney. Sydney were in control of this game until half-time when the rain stopped and Carlton gained the upper-hand and rolled over the Swans.
Carlton lead every important stat apart from tackles. Swans average 9 more tackles per game.
Blues lead the Kicks by 30 per match, handballs by 26 per match, marks by 28 per match, Hitouts by 4 per match and most importantly, Disposals per Goal 26.92 to 28.51
Key game changes
Mumford is the one major change in this game for Sydney coming in.
Who will win?
Mumford is a big in for Sydney. Unfortunately, Carlton stack up too well statistic wise. Swans stand a chance if it rains but over 4 QTR’s, Carlton will be too strong.
Carlton by 22
Betting Option
Carlton -7.5 at $1.40
West Coast Eagles ($1.06) vs Port Adelaide Power ($9.30) – Sunday 2:40pm AWST (4:40pm AEST)
Ladder position: West Coast 6th Port Adelaide 16th
Weather Conditions (Forecast as of Wednesday 1am): Shower or Two predicted. 12-20’c
Turn Around: West Coast 8 Days. Port Adelaide 14 Days.
Port Adelaide have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. The last meeting was won by West Coast by 18 points in Round 2 of this year.
West Coast average 10 more kicks and 20 more handballs, 11 more marks, 22 more hitouts and 7 more tackles per game than Port Adelaide
Further more, they average a goal every 26 dispoals compared to Ports goal every 29.
Key game changes
Port Captain Cassisi returns with Brett Ebert, Devenport and Steward, all good in’s.
Who will win?
The stats for this match are very clear. West Coast should take care of Port Adelaide. With Ebert and Cassisi back in, we expect a closer game than expected.
West Coast by 23 points
Betting Option
Port Adelaide +71.5 at $1.27
