Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 13 2017 Preview. The teams coming off of byes have been getting the better of most teams this year, but there have been a few that just haven’t turned up as well including the Bulldogs last week against the Swans. The path to the finals is becoming clearer and the form lines are starting to become easier to spot. Hopefully out tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bets
(5 units): North Melbourne +1.5 @ $1.92
(3 units): Geelong 1-39 @ $2.50
(2 units): Gold Coast 1-39 margin @ $2.10
(2 units): Melbourne +10.5 line @ $1.92
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
West Coast ($2.05) VS Geelong ($1.77)
Thursday 15 June – 8.10pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast +4.5, Geelong -4.5
West Coast
The Eagles have lost 3 in a row and face a tough task in a freshened up Cats team.
The positive today is that the Eagles get to face the cats on their home deck where they have won 4 of 5 this season, with only an 8 point loss to the giants the one blip on the form.
The Eagles had the Suns put away over at Metricon, but a few late goals saw them give up what should have been a simple win.
Overall, The Suns actually had 3 more shots on goal, more hitouts, tackles and marks inside 50, but West Coast did win the clearances.
The Eagles fresh off a break will need to be at their very best to beat the Cats. The Eagles have failed to break 100 points the past 5 games so they will need to be shooting straight to measure up here.
Geelong
Very much a streak team this year having won 5 in a row, lost 3 in a row and then 3 in a row going into the break.
The Cats knocked off three of the best teams in the league and couldn’t have been more impressive in doing so against the Crows.
The Cats were super impressive at Domain Stadium in round one absolutely blowing the Dockers off the park in the first quarter. If this Cats team turns up as expected, they will be hard to hold out.
Looking at the KPIs from the past three wins, the Cats continue to hit all the right metrics with strong clearance and hitout numbers, marks inside 50s are high and most importantly they are getting the scoring shots on goal.
Summary
Both teams come into this off a freshen up break with the bye and both brought 3 game streaks into the break with the Eagles losing 3 in a row and Cats winning 3 in a row.
The Eagles are significantly better back at home and have won 4 of 5 games there this year while the Cats also play this ground very well smashing the Dockers in round 1.
The Cats on paper are the better team overall and playing in better form, but they have on occasion in the past away from their spiritual home in Geelong let punters down with sub standard performances on the track.
I think we can take that chance on this Cats line-up whose superstars Dangerfield and Selwood are playing some exceptional football.
Predicted Result
Geelong by 18 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.40
North Melbourne vs St Kilda
Friday 16 June – 7.50pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: North Melbourne +1.5, St Kilda -3.5
North Melbourne
The Roos matched it with the Tigers for the first half of the match before kicking 2-6 and allowing 8-7 against in the second half of the match. They had enough inside 50s but didn’t get enough shots on goal and allowed too many themselves. 8 Marks inside 50 to 15 tells the tail of the match so does 31 to 41 clearances.
Losing to the Tigers is no disgrace as the Tigers can be considered a legit top 6 team this year. Two previous wins ove rhte Demons and Blues suggest the Roos at the top of their game are more than good enough to beat the Saints, and should be able to take care of them easily if they are off their game as per the past 3 games.
The Roos come into this match fresh after a week off.
St Kilda
The Saints came into this season with high hopes, but after an up and down start to the year, they have been beaten by 50, 40 and 57 in the past three weeks.
Infact, the Saints have lost all four quarters in their last 3 matches, that’s how comprehensively they have been beaten.
They face an easier task this week against the Roos, but they will have to perform at their top to measure up here.
Summary
The Roos come into this match off the Bye while the Saints come in down on spirits having lost the last 12 quarters of football. The Roos can make an early statement here by putting their feet on the necks of the Saints players with some early pressure to take an early lead into the 2nd quarter which would demoralise the saints even more than they were heading into the match.
It’s hard to see why the Saints are favourites and i’m happy to oppose them here.
Predicted Result
North Melbourne by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 95%
North Melbourne +1.5 @ $1.92
Richmond vs Sydney
Saturday 17 June 2017 – 1.45pm – MCG
Line: Richmond +3.5, Sydney -3.5
Richmond
The Tigers broke a 4 game losing streak with a strong win over the Bombers and Roos heading into the bye round and come into this match fresh with 7 wins on the board. The Tigers have won 5 of 6 matches at the MCG this season with the only loss being by 2 points.
The Tigers are a team that continue to hit all the key KPI data and have their opportunities inside of 50, while keeping opponents below 80 points in the past 5 matches with a strong defensive structure.
Sydney
The Swans stumbled against the Hawks two weeks back but outside of that won that have won 4 of their last 5 matches after a disastrous start to the year. They took care of the Bulldogs in clinical fashion last week keeping them to just 42 points for the match.
The Swans, like the Tigers, have kept opponents to under 81 points in their last 5 matches so this is expected to be a defensive masterclass filled with rebound 50 goals.
The Swans failed to pass the test at this oval in Round 6 losing to the Blues, so it will be interesting to see how they fair against an inform and almost fully teamed Tigers.
Summary
This appears as one of the toughest matches of the week to pick. The Tigers and Swans are both playing tight and powerful football. On paper the Swans have the better team, but they have consistently failed in the past to measure up to 100% at this ground. The Tigers on the otherhand have been rock solid here all year and will be hard to beat. I have to send the tip the Tigers way in a low scoring match.
Predicted Result
Richmond by 8 points
Betting – Confidence 60%
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.60
Port Adelaide vs Brisbane
Saturday 4.35pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -54.5, Brisbane +54.5
Port Adelaide
The Power come into this match against the Lions off their worst performance of the year being belted by the Bombers by 70 points. There is a lot of sole searching that will have gone on during the week so it will be interesting to see just how hard they bounce back this week.
When the Power are good, they are really good having put 90, 83, 72 and 51 points on teams in the past 7 weeks.. and the 83 point win was over the Lions at the Gabba. They return back to their home ground facing a very similar team.
Last time these teams met the Power had an amazing 40 shots on goal to 17 from 67 to 38 inside 50s. The Power had an amazing 22 marks inside 50 and I can’t see that changing here.
Brisbane
The Lions come into this match off a 57 point win over the Dockers at home. They dominated all the KPIs against the Dockers who were checked out on the day.
The issues with this team can be seen in previous matches where they allow far too many marks inside 50 and shots on goal.
Summary
On paper, it’s hard to see how the Power are 54.5 point favourites after coming into the match off a 70 point loss against a team that just had a 57 point win, but the Power at the Gabba did beat them by 83 points several rounds ago. The Power at the top of their game just blow away this Lions team and I can’t see any reason why it won’t happen again.
Predicted Result
Port Adelaide by 62 points
Betting – Confidence 60%
Port Adelaide -57.5 line @ $1.92
Gold Coast vs Carlton
Saturday 7.25pm AEST – Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast -19.5, Carlton +19.5
Gold Coast
Won two in a row against the Eagles and Hawks and come into this match high on confidence.
For mine, the Suns haven’t been highly convincing, but they have been competitive after their two lapses against the Power and Demons.
At home, this is another winnable game, but they are coming up against a Blues team full of confidence after fairly defeating the Giants on the weekend..
The key will be for the Suns to make this a shootout as the Blues haven’t scored over 100 points all season.
Carlton
The Blues were excellent last week against the Giants at Etihad Stadium coming off a break and will bring huge confidence into this match today.
As mentioned above, this Blues team is a well oiled defensive unit not allowing high scores when they are winning matches and not scoring over 100 points themselves.
The Blues didn’t hit all the required KPIs last week against the Giants, which isn’t a surprise against that team, but they still managed the win. Expect a similar positive game today.
Summary
I can’t see this game being a blowout, but I also can’t be drawn into a -19.5 line for the Suns.
I can see the Suns winning this but it will be a tight contest. Do you take the +19.5 headstart for the Blues knowing they are playing well enough, or do you take the 1-39 knowing that if the suns win, it’s likely to be a score of 94-70 range. For mine, there is too much risk in the line and i’d rather take the 1-39 on the Suns and lose if they blowout the match or the Blues prove too good. Happy with the price.
Predicted Result
Gold Coast by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Gold Coast 1-39 margin @ $2.10
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
Sunday 3.20pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs -10.5, Melbourne +10.5
Western Bulldogs
The Doggies put in their worst performance of the year against the Swans last week and were never a factor coming off the Bye. Most teams coming off the bye have savaged their opponents, but the Doggies were lacking in fight and contested possession. Libba is expected to be injected back into the team this week which will provide them with passion around the ball and the overall dryer conditions at the Etihad Stadium should be more their thing.
The KPIs from last week are just terrible from the Doggies point of view but when you look back over their form, they are a better team than the Demons.. but this will certainly be a test for the premiers.
Melbourne
The Demons battled back from 23 points down at half-time against the pies last Monday and come into this match strong and full of belief. They only have a 6 day turn around which is certainly a disadvantage and they come to the Etihad Stadium where they don’t have a great recent record.
That being said, the Demons keep hitting all the right KPIs and are playing like a team full of belief that can put a score on the board with 90-110 points in almost all games this year.
Don’t underestimate this Demons team.
Summary
The Doggies have been struggling to score more than 90 points since Round 6 which is of concern coming into the match. That being said, Etihad is their strongest stadium and the Demons will need to shoot straight to measure up today.
I like the Demons to cause an upset today against a Dogs team that looks down and out at the moment.
Predicted Result
Melbourne by 12 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Melbourne +10.5 line @ $1.92
