Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 12 2017 Preview. Bye rounds are upon us and we are expect to several teams making their runs at the finals from next week onwards. There looks to be 3 solid bets on the card this week and hopefully we can get a bit of luck and not give away the win on the siren again. Hopefully out tips help you have a perfect weekend with a few of our outsiders tipped on top. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bets
(4 units): Western Bulldogs H2H @ $2.10
(3 units): Fremantle -18.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Gold Coast +7.5 points @ $1.92
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
Sydney ($1.82) VS Western Bulldogs ($2.10)
Thursday 8 June – 7.20pm – SCG
Line: Sydney -3.5, Western Bulldogs +3.5
Sydney Swans
The Swans failed their latest test falling to the Hawks at the SCG after two strong wins over the Roos and Saints on the road. The reality is they were down a few men but even so, it was a sloppy effort. The Swans allowed the Hawks to kick away by 4 goals at half-time and it was hard to peg back the difference.
The Swans went in 40 point favourites to that match showing just how much expectation was on the group. They come back after the break asking a lot of this group. They really just arn’t getting the inside 50 numbers this group deserves. Perhaps a full break will have them back at full strength for this mid-week challenge against the premiers.
Western Bulldogs
The Doggies have been going about it the right way in recent weeks, but certainly havn’t been impressive on most occasions. They demolished the Saints by 40 points heading into the break coming off a loss to the Cats and Eagles before that. The Doggies are a form team of the league and while they certainly aren’t being considered as one of the top chances in premiership calculation, they match up perfectly well against this Swans match-up and will take it to them all over the mark.
The Saints win shows just how well this team can click over the course of four quarters and taking advantage of most Inside 50s they get, a key stat they wil be able to exploit against this Swans team. Most importantly, the Doggies come into this match with several selection issues, which are only positives such as fitting Libba back into the side!
Summary
I’m shocked by the pricing in this match with the Swans considered the favourites by the bookmakers. This makes no sense on recent form and i’m keen to oppose the Swans with a Bulldogs team that has proven in the past that they match up very well against the Swans game style.
Predicted Result
Western Bulldogs to win by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Western Bulldogs H2H @ $2.10
Adelaide ($1.18) VS St Kilda ($5.25)
Friday 9 June – 7.50pm – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -36.5, St Kilda +36.5
Adelaide Crows
The Crows failed to pass the test against the Cats last week and were completely outplayed on the night. This comes off the loses to the Demons and Roos in between wins over the Lions and Dockers.
They comes back to their home ground where they have won 5 from 6 this year with only a poor performance against the Demons at home a blip on that radar.
The Crows will need a stronger start to the game this week.
St Kilda Saints
The Saints fell into a mid-season slump with a 50 point loss to the Swans followed by a 40 point loss to the Doggies undoing all the good work that saw them get a win over the Giants just four weeks ago. They come into this match fresh off the bye and i’m expecting them to be refreshed and ready to roll.
The key to stopping the Crows from scoring is a strong defensive structure that forces kicks high inside of 50 and the Cats showed us that tactic perfectly last week taking care of the Crows forwardline throughout the match. It will take a top class performance from the Saints today to pull off that upset.
On their best, they can go very close here.
Summary
It’s very hard to trust the Crows after the past five weeks, while the Saints have lost by a combined 90 points in the past two matches leading in. Safe to say it’s hard to tip against the Crows, but I can see the Saints winning 1 in 5 as the odds suggest.
Predicted Result
Adelaide by 20 points
Betting – Confidence 65%
Adelaide 1-39 margin @ $2.40
Hawthorn ($1.67) VS Gold Coast ($2.30)
Saturday 10 June – 1.45pm AEST – MCG
Line: Hawthorn -7.5, Gold Coast +7.5
Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks have been very off and on the past 7 matches with 4 wins on the board and three loses by 51, 18 and 75. One thing is for sure this year, the Hawks have been struggling to get a large score on the board.
They meet a Suns team that excluding last week’s 77 against, had conceeded 122, 110, 99, 107 and 153 points in recent weeks. This looks the ideal match for the Hawks to make their mark up front.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns fought out a tough win at home last week over the Eagles and come into this match having beaten the Cats this year as well as the Hawks by 86 points in Round 3.
Have the Hawks improved significantly since Round 3 and have the Suns gone so far backwards? Just because this match is at the MCG we are expected to give hawks favourtism? I don’t think so.
Summary
This is a match setup for the hawks today, but I can’t forget how well the Suns took care of them early in the year by 86 points.
The Suns get the nod of approval in what is expected to be a solid contest.
Predicted Result
Gold Coast Suns by 15 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Gold Coast +7.5 points @ $1.92
Brisbane ($3.65) VS Fremantle ($1.34)
Saturday 10 June – 4.35pm AEST – Gabba
Line: Brisbane +18.5, Fremantle -18.5
Brisbane Lions
The Lions have failed to get within 27 points since they were lucky to get a win over the Suns in round 1. They are negligent defensively and missing a few key players in the midfield.
The lions will need to score 100 points.
Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers were fairly beaten last match by the Pies over in the West and they can to be happy with the effort blooding in a few newbies.
The Dockers are expected to remain Sandi this week as well as a few other position moves.
Summary
I’m shocked by the price for Fremantle today as I would have expected their line to be much shorter. More than happy to take them at the line hoping for an effort similar to that against the Bombers in R7.
Predicted Result
Fremantle by 30 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Fremantle -18.5 line @ $1.92
Essendon ($2.75) VS Port Adelaide ($1.48)
Saturday 10 June – 7.25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Essendon +15.5, Port Adelaide -15.5
Essendon Bombers
The bombers have been outplayed the past two weeks by the Tigers at the MCG and then the Giants at Spotless Stadium.
The KPIs talk strongly about the Bombers recent game which saw them beat the Cats and Eagles the two weeks prior.
Back at Etihad Stadium, the Bombers will be looking to put a 100+ point score on the board.
Port Adelaide Power
The Power once again took care of a bottom 8 team with ease by demolishing the Hawks by 51 points at home on Thursday. They shut down in the final quarter otherwise the number could have been even larger. This is a Power team that continues to pass all the tests put to them by those outside of the top 4 and it will be interesting to see how they manage on the road.
The Powers loses this season have all come when teams have kept them under 87 points and that will be a test for a Bombers team that doesn’t have the best defense in the league.
Summary
This is set to be a cracking game of football. The Bombers have looked good in recent weeks and have just come up against better teams on the day in the Tigers and the Giants. The Power sit around the middle of these two teams but are an unknown this year at Etihad Stadium and don’t have the best record on the road.
There are a load of questionmarks in this match and while I do like the bombers fighting chances, I would have to lean to the Power in a close fought battle.
Predicted Result
Port Adelaide by 8 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25
Carlton ($5.25) VS Greater Western Sydney ($1.19)
Sunday 11 June – 3.20pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Carlton +33.5, GWS -33.5
Carlton Blues
The Blues have lost 3 in a row with 19 and 17 point loses to the saints and roos while the Dockers made easy work of them by 35 points. The Blues recorded wins over the Swans and Magpies before that.
This is a Blues team lacking in injuries and high on team spirit. Expect them to take it to the Giants.
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants continue to get the job done with four wins in a row by under 16 points. This match against the Blues looks to be their easiest test in quite while.
Just how far will they win by if they win? This is a team apart from last week that has been struggling to get large scores on the board and that bodes well for the Blues to keep it close.
Summary
Happy to stick with a Giants win here but not expecting a blowout with a scoreline of 100 to 74 very much on the cards.
Predicted Result
Greater Western Sydney by 26 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 Margin @ $2.30
Melbourne ($1.63) VS Collingwood ($2.36)
Monday 12 June – 3:20pm AEST – MCG
Line: Melbourne -10.5, Collingwood +10.5
Melbourne Demons
The Demons meet the Pies at the perfect time coming in off a 35 point win over the Suns while the Pies come back from WA with several injuries.
The Demons will be well rested off the break and have beaten the Crows in recent weeks and a tough loss to the Roos that we can’t forget. It’s rare that this team can put two wins together but they may just not feel it’s 2 in a row with a bye inbetween.
The Demons best is good enough to win this.
Collingwood Magpies
The pies come into this match ravaged by injury, so the ins and outs for this match will be what decides a won or loss for the Magpies.
This is a team that has won 3 in a row with a close loss prior to that to the Giants. They are the real deal, but as we have seen in the past, when they lose 2-3 key forwards, their stucture gets lost.
Summary
It’s easy to back the Demons here but it’s going to be a very close match. The Demons come into this fresh off a win the week prior with a near full strength team while the Pies come into this match with several doubts on players and a turn around from a WA trip.
Predicted Result
Melbourne by 11 points
Betting – Confidence 60%
Tribet 24.5: Either Team under 24.5 points winning margin @ $1.83
