Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 10 2017 Preview. The last few weeks haven’t been kind to us with the positive start to the season being eroded away in some sub-standard efforts from teams – not even getting close to covering and never looking likely from the start of the match. We have adjusted as expected this week and come up for another go. Looking forward to the up-coming bye rounds which always seem to throw up some interesting results. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bets
(5 units): Fremantle +39.5 line @ $1.92
(4 units): North Melbourne 1-39 margin @ $2.16
(3 units): Sydney Swans -31.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Richmond -1.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Western Bulldogs -13.5 line @ $1.92
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
Geelong ($1.61) vs Port Adelaide ($2.34)
Thursday 25 May – 7.20pm – Simonds Stadium
Line: Geelong -8.5, Port Adelaide +8.5
Geelong
The Cats started the year so well but did show quite a few lapses of judgement in their wins. They then lost 3 in a row heading into their first game at home for the year and had to respond to the piss-poor effort showed the week prior against the Bombers.
The Cats were brilliant against a rough and tumble Bulldogs team. The Cats won the clearances by 7 but had 4 less marks inside 50 for the match. The key stats saw the Cats dominate the Hitouts and put on an amazing 134 tackles to 104 resulting in 54 to 48 inside 50s and 24 to 21 shots on goal. It was a very even match throughout and felt like it could go either way for a lot of the match, but the cats finished the match strongly.
The Power look an even tougher task for mine this week and it will take a repeat of that effort to win again at home on Thursday.
Port Adelaide
The Power come into this match off a bye-round with only one injury on their list. The Power have lost three matches this season to teams that can be called the ‘testing material’ in the Eagles, Giants and Crows. The power absolutely took care of the Suns over in China last round in what looked a display from the Suns as if they just didn’t want to be there. The Power won all the KPIs and we really don’t need to go into the stats.
If we look back to previous matches where they have lost such as the Adelaide and GWS matches, the Power have gone toe for toe all across the board on all the KPIs. Where they lost it against the crows was giving up 17 marks inside 50 to just 9 for themselves and that was the difference. Against the Giants, they allowed more Inside 50s for the match, lacked in the tackle department and lost the hitouts and clearances convincingly including the Marks inside 50 stat.
There is only one match for the year (the giants match) where the Power were outplayed. The Cats stats against the Doggies give me confidence that the Power are a big chance to cause what is expected to be an upset against a Cats team that will struggle to replicate such intesity for a second week around the ball.
Summary
Port Adelaide have measured up on the road all year so a tough match at Simonds Stadium should suit their play style. The extra week break will have them fresh while the Cats come off the hardest and toughest game for the season.
Expect a war.
Predicted Result
Port Adelaide by 13 points.
Betting – Confidence 65%
Port Adelaide +8.5 line @ $1.92
Sydney ($1.28) vs Hawthorn ($3.75)
Friday 26 May – 7.50pm – SCG
Line: Sydney -27.5, Hawthorn +27.5
Sydney
After a very slow start to the season the Swans have put three solid wins in a row on the board with 54, 42 and 50 point wins over the Lions, Roos and Saints. In each of these games they have scored 118 or more points, twice on a road, and only allowed a maximum of 81 points against.
The Swans win against the Saints was all but clinical. The Swans didn’t even have to win the clearances, losing them by 9 overall, yet they had 56 to 47 inside 50s with 28 to 18 scoring shots on the day. The key was an amazing 18 to 6 Marks inside 50. The Saints out tackled the Swans and had more hitouts and similar disposals.. but the Swans out marked them around the ground and had more space with 129 to 94 marks and 9 to 5 contested marks.
The Swans more than stamped themselves as ‘the real deal’ over the past three weeks after taking down a top 8 contender in the Saints convincingly. The Swans have won the last 6 halves of football and the consistency is there for all to see.
Hawthorn
The Hawks are one of the most inconsistent teams of the moment and that was proven with their effort against the Pies on the weekend. Jumping to a 36 point lead at quarter-time, the Hawks led by 34 at half-time but then had just 1 goal 2 behinds for the second half of the match to lose the match by 18 points in the end.
The Pies ended up winning the Clearances by 5, marks inside 50 by 5, Hitouts by 3, scoring shots by 8 and inside 50s by 4. The Tackles around the ground were even but it was the disposal count and marks around the ground that got the Pies the space to get a win with 423 disposal to 372 and 113 marks to 93.
Summary
The Hawks are a team ravaged by 11 injuries and certainly still coming to grips with a new pattern of play. The Swans have finally looked like a team that cares to play for each other and is now working well as a team. Their injury list is down to just 5 and Jack is expected to be available with McVeigh this week if they need them while Edwards is a test also.
Predicted Result
Sydney by 46 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Sydney Swans -31.5 line @ $1.92
Western Bulldogs ($1.46) vs St Kilda ($2.75)
Saturday 27 May – 1.45pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs -13.5, St Kilda +13.5
Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have lost 3 of their last 4 with just a 5 point win over the Tigers being the winner in that time. That being said, they have been there or there abouts against good teams in the Giants, Tigers and Eagles and their game against the Cats on the weekend was good without being great.
The Bulldogs hit quite a few solid KPIs against the Cats last week and the only faulter to their match was the scoreless second quarter when the Cats stepped up the pressure.. it was 10 shots to 0. The Dogs had 11 to 1 in the 3rd quarter but failed to see out the match with just 3 to 10 in the final quarter. The Doggies had the better chances with 11 to 7 marks inside 50 and only lost the clearances by 7 after losing the hitouts by 17 and inside 50s by 6.
The Dogs continue to have a solid list and have 3 players that may very well be back in the mix this week including Stringer.
St Kilda
The Saints have had their run of the green recently with three wins in a row over the Hawks, Giants and Blues. The Swans absolutely showed the Dogs how to beat the Saints by outplaying them around the ground and hitting targets inside 50. The Swans lost the clearances and hitouts on the night and put on 22 less tackles, but it didn’t matter at all as they won the game by 50 points having an amazing 18 to 6 marks inside 50 on the day and 129 marks to 94 around the grounds. The Swans only had 9 more inside 50s but had 10 more shots on goal and kicked straighter with so many marks inside 50.
The Saints will have to bounce back and change up their game plans to match this Bulldogs team coming off a loss.
Summary
The Doggies have made Etihad Stadium a fortress this year going 4/4 at the stadium while St Kilda have won 4/7 with a 50 point loss to the Swans leading into this. The Dogs have all the weapons needed to test the Saints and their use of the ball entering the 50, while preventing marking inside their own 50, may very well prove the difference in this match.
Predicted Result
Western Bulldogs by 28 points
Betting Confidence 85%
Western Bulldogs -13.5 line @ $1.92
Melbourne ($1.48) vs Gold Coast ($2.66)
Saturday 27 May – 4.35pm – TIO Traegar Park
Line: Melbourne -12.5, Gold Coast +12.5
Melbourne Demons
This is a Demons team that once again last week showed their immaturity in allowing another team to get away to an early lead and set themselves a hard task in running down that lead and seeing out the match. They put in a bold effort against the Roos but fell short. This coming off a high flying win over the Crows.. this is a team that has consistently failed to put together two solid wins in a row against teams of substance the past few years. The best time to catch the Demons seems to be on the back of a loss as they had a very solid win over the Bombers (before failing against the Hawks) and then bounced back to beat the Crows.
The Demons performance on the weekend was pretty good on the KPIs overall. They won the clearances 39 to 34 despite losing the ruck contest 67-28! An area of concern was the 16 inside 50s marks they allowed to just 11 of their own. The Demons won the Disposals, put on enough tackles (14 less than the Roos) and had the required inside 50s to win, but did have 5 less shots on goal.
With 9 players in the team with under 50 games experience, the Roos showed that you can tag some of their less mature players that have been over-performing. I’m not sure the Suns have the same ability.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns didn’t enjoy their holiday to China one bit and it was evident on the lead up they couldn’t care less about the game. That showed on the score board with a 110 to 38 defeat to Port Adelaide. The Suns allowed an amazing 75 to 48 inside 50s and took just 3 marks inside 50 for the whole match. As the score suggests they look all the key contests including the clearances and it was just too bad to be remembered the result.
I’d expect a better suns side to grace the park after a nice break due to the bye round. Just how good are the suns though? They did beat the Cats, but other than that they have only beaten the Blues and Hawks. It will take a mature performance from the Suns to get over the Demons, even at this venue.
Summary
I couldn’t be anywhere near the Suns in this match. While we simply forgive the China effort, the Suns haven’t showed the consistency required to beat a Demons team that turns up and wants to win. The Demons have everything to prove today and this is a pivotal game for them going towards a potential top 8 spot at the end of the year.
Predicted Result
Melbourne by 18 points
Betting Confidence 75%
Melbourne 1-39 margin
Richmond ($1.84) vs Essendon ($1.97)
Saturday 27 May – 7.25pm – MCG
Line: Richmond -1.5, Essendon +1.5
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers have lost 4 in a row, but the three previous loses have been by a combined margin of 10 points! Each of these matches have been tight low scoring matches with 155 or less points in the matches.
The Tigers gave up a 25 point lead at 3 qtr time last week and kicked 5 behinds in the final quarter to lose to the Giants
The Tigers were the better team for the whole match and the KPIs show it. While they may not have won the hitouts or the clearance numbers overall, the Tigers has a massive 17 marks inside 50 to just 10. They won the disposals and marks easily on the day and massively won the inside 50s 61 to 45.. but poor shooting infront of goal cost them in the end only scoring 10 goals for the match and 15 behinds.
This is a tigers team doing everything right apart from winning.
Essendon Bombers
Essendon ride a two game win-streak into this match after convincingly knocking off the Eagles last week and getting one over the Cats the week prior. We can simply look at the effort of the Eagles on the weekend as piss-weak, which it was, but the Bombers played like a well oiled team that were playing for each other and doing the right thing all around the ground.
Surprisingly on the KPIs, the Eagles only allowed 49 inside 50s to the Bombers and had 48 of their own, and Marks Inside 50 were 12 a piece… but Essendon had 39 more contested possessions for the match and won the clearances. They also had 6 more shots on goal for 1 more inside 50 and converted significantly more efficiently.
It was an effort to forget from the Eagles and an effort to remember from the Bombers.
Summary
Saying the Tigers are due would be stupid in this situation as you only get what you deserve. I feel the Tigers have been playing the better footy all year than the Bombers and this bodes as a very interesting match-up all around the grounds. Daniher has kicked 5 goals in the past two wins and I don’t see him getting one over on Rance this week, so where will those extra goals come from? This is a Tigers team that battles you for the full match and this will be a war right until the end.
Predicted Result
Richmond by 22 points
Betting Confidence 85%
Richmond -1.5 line @ $1.92
Adelaide ($1.17) vs Fremantle ($5.10)
Saturday 27 May – 7.40pm – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -31.5, Fremantle +31.5
Adelaide
The Crows got a win back on the board last week against the Lions in convincing style. The Crows had 18 to 5 marks inside 50, wont he clearances by 4, had 57 to 51 inside 50s and 35 to 25 scoring shots. They had 6 less tackles but won the hitouts by 4. The lions shot at 28% on the day leading to the large score blowout.
The Crows were always going to blow away the Lions so it came as no great shock. They return to Adelaide Oval and face a tough task in the Dockers as the Crows came off 41 and 59 point loses the previous matches. Have they really turned that around enough to blow away the dockers? The Crows started slow last week.
Fremantle
The Dockers come into this match having won three matches in a row and two of the three prior to that. They are really going from strength to strength and surprising people along the way. They have been put up big outsiders today which I disagree with.
The game last week against the Blues saw the Dockers start slow once again which is a concern with this team, but they finished off strongly. The Dockers didn’t show their best in the wet but did hit quite a few KPIs we like including winning the clearances, hitouts, tackles, inside 50s and scoring shots. They were out marked around the ground and inside 50 is the one main issue.
Summary
The Dockers are prone to slow starts which is their worry here today on the road, but they have really been performing very well in recent weeks. The Dockers only loss over the past six weeks was to the Eagles when they started slow and gave away a 40 point headstart and held that margin the rest of the match. The Crows have been horrible in their loses to the Roos and the Demons and a performance against the Lions doesn’t give me any confidence in this Crows team being back to 100% today. Ross Lyon will have studied those wins by the Demons and Roos and will be implementing similar game plans to try and get a similar result today.
I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dockers put a win on the board today and i’m keen to back them with the +31.5 headstart.
Predicted Result
Adelaide by 9 points
Betting Confidence 95%
Fremantle +39.5 line @ $1.92
Collingwood ($1.07) vs Brisbane ($8.60)
Sunday 28 May – 1.10pm – MCG
Line: Collingwood -45.5, Brisbane +45.5
Collingwood
The Pies we know stood up last week spotting the Hawks a 6 goal headstart having scored just 1 point in the entire first quarter. Down by 34 at half-time, the Pies dominated the second half and kept the Hawks to just 1 goal 2 behinds for the half to score the victory.
The overall KPIs work out obviously in the Pies favour as they have for alot of the year with 12 to 7 marks inside 50, 45 to 40 clearances, 25 to 17 scoring shots, 51 to 47 inside 50s. The surprise was the Hawks won the hitouts 52 to 49 but it was the around the ground work where Grundy really won that battle. Both teams put in a load of work landing 92 tackles.
A strong start this week could see the Pies largest victory of the year.
Brisbane
The Lions suffered another heavy loss on the weekend against the Crows and shot a troubling 28% infront of goal. Even so, they lost the scoring shots 25 to 35 and inside 50s 51 to 47. They lost the Hitsouts 35-40 and the clearances 34-38. Most dreadfully they lost the inside 50 marks 18 to 45.
IT doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the Lions are up against it here today against the pies and only some strong coaching and buy-in from the players will prevent a blowout score.
Summary
The Lions need a strong start to remain a factor in this game. I worry for just how large this score could get if the Pies have a good day infront of goal as well as a good start.
Predicted Result
Collingwood by 70 points
Betting Confidence 70%
Collingwood -45.5 line @ $1.92
Carlton ($2.63) vs North Melbourne ($1.49)
Sunday 28 May – 3.20pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: Carlton +12.5, North Melbourne -12.5
Carlton
The Blues have won 3 games this year which is more than what they would have probably expected by Round 9 of the season with wins over the Pies, Swans and Bombers. They have been in the game up until at least 3 QTR time for the past two weeks before they let the opposition roll over them.
The Dockers ended up dominating the last start game in the end with 52 to 43 inside 50s, 43 to 36 hitouts, 79 to 72 tackles, 43 clearances to 35. The one area the dockers failed was marks inside 50.
Will need to improve to test the Roos but not by a lot!
North Melbourne
The Roos have now won 2 of their last 3 with a blip against the Swans two rounds back.
The Roos match up very well around the grounds today against the blues and i’m expecting a high scoring match. The Roos got away to a fast start against the Demons and that seemed to be the difference at the end of the match.
The Roos ended the match against the Demons with more inside 50s, scoring shots, hitouts, tackles and marks overall while the demons had more disposals. Most importantly the Roos had 16 marks inside 50 to 11, but lost the clearances by 5.
Summary
This is one of the most interesting games of the round and I feel the bookies have the Blues far too short off both teams recent records. The Roos look a great chance to record another win and while I don’t think it will be hugely close at the end, i’m happy to take the Roos at the 1-39 margin rather than the line as I just can’t see a big blowout occurring and it gives me a life-line if the Blues do kick away early on.
Predicted Result
North Melbourne by 25 points
Betting Confidence 90%
North Melbourne 1-39 margin @ $2.16
West Coast ($1.72) vs Greater Western Sydney ($2.13)
Sunday 28 May – 3.40pm – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast -5.5, Greater Western Sydney +5.5
West Coast
The Eagles have been just getting the job done at home in recent weeks and when they had their opportunity on the road to defeat the Bombers at Etihad Stadium, they failed the task heavily. They come into this off a 61 point drubbing and I’m not sure there is a lot to learn.
Put simply, the Eagles were smashed in the contested possessions around the ground and that should be a focus this week against a rampaging Giants that may be depleted, but looks set to test this Eagles outfit.
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants past three wins have been all by 3 points or less, so it’s safe to say that this team knows how to get the job done when it counts. They are ravaged by injury, but they still have a team that most clubs are envious of.
The Giants continue to hit the core KPIs this year and will continue to do so with road trips proving no harder for this team.
Summary
The Eagles are expected to bounce back here, but I just can’t oppose the flag favourites in the Giants even with the outs. This is a team that just continues to find a way to win and that goes a long way in this game.
Predicted Result
Giants by 8 points.
Betting Confidence 70%
GWS +5.5 line @ $1.92
