Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.
Games
Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans – Friday 7:45pm AEST
West Coast Eagles vs Carlton Blues – Saturday 3:50pm AWST (5:50pm AEST)
—————————————————————————————————————-
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.45) vs Sydney Swans ($2.77)
Recent clashes: Round Nine 2011 – Hawthorn beat Sydney by 46 points at the SCG
Stats
Hawks average 31 more kicks per game
Hawks average 28 more handballs per game
Hawks average 35 more marks per game
Hawks average 3 more scoring shots per game
Hawks average 1 more inside 50 per game
Swans average 5 more clearances per game
Swans average 17 more contested possessions per game
Swans averages 11 more tackles per game
Swans averages 3 more hitouts per game
Hawks average 25.71 disposals per goal
Swans average 27.90 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Hawthorn: IN: Stratton – OUT: Breust
Sydney: IN: No Change
The Verdict
This game will be won and lost in the middle of the ground. The Swans lead the stats race convincingly with 5 more clearances, 3 more hitouts and 17 more contested possessions per game. Add this to the extra 11 tackles… we can see the Swans getting up over the Hawks. Don’t discount the Hawks but we think this one will go down to the wire and the Swans will get over the line (AS LONG AS THEY KICK STRAIGHT – Which they have struggled to do all year.. but have been doing the last few weeks).
Sydney by 5 points
Betting Options
First goal scorer: Spangher (SYD) $17-1 (Starting at full-forward)
Most Disposals: Mitchell (HAW) $1.95
3 Units Sydney +34.5 at $1.37
1 Unit Sydney 1-24 at $4.35
—————————————————————————————————————-
West Coast Eagles ($1.43) vs Carlton Blues ($2.85)
Recent clashes: Round 14 at Etihad Stadium – West Coast Eagles defeated Carlton Blues by 36 points
Stats
Blues average 17 more kicks per game
Blues average 4 more handballs per game
Blues average 11 more marks per game
Blues average 1 more scoring shot per game
Blues average 1 more inside 50 per game
Blues average 1 more clearance per game
Eagles average 3 more contested marks per game
Eagles average 2 more contested possessions per game
Eagles average 7 more hitouts per game
Eagles average 24.78 disposals per goal
Blues average 25.49 disposals per goal
Team Changes
West Coast: IN: Kerr – OUT: Ebert
Carlton: IN: Tuohy – OUT: Gibbs
The Verdict
West Coast were impressive when they outgunned the Blues in Round 14 in Melbourne. Carlton are going with a small team to Perth which is what you need to compete with the Eagles on this ground… you need the run. The stats are extremly close when you weight them all up and there game will be a nail biter of a game. The finals series will end for the Blues this week with the Eagles getting over the line.
West Coast by 18
Betting Options
First goal scorer: Walker (CARL) $14-1
Most Disposals: Judd (CARL) $5.10
3 Units West Coast 1-39 at $2.24
Please note
Majority of Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
