It was another weird week in A-League, couple of expected results, but then a couple of unexpected ones were thrown up too. We had a double header on Friday; firstly Wellington hosted Adelaide, they had no trouble dealing with them. Wellington won the game 4-2, and was never in doubt. The second game Friday night came as a bit of a surprise, after playing pretty well lately, I thought Melbourne City would be able to handle Western Sydney fairly easily, but it didn’t turn out that way. Not only did Western Sydney win, they coasted through the match, running out 3-0 winners. With that victory Western Sydney have now climbed to the top half of the table. Newcastle and Central Coast faced off on Saturday and it ended in a 0-0 draw. After a good start to the season, Newcastle have only managed to get one point out of their last two games, which were both played at their home ground. Saturday night was the highlight of the round, it was the “Big Blue” as Melbourne Victory headed north to take on Sydney and it lived up to the hype. It was another high scoring affair, as these fixtures always are, and the honors went to Melbourne Victory again. The stats were very similar for both sides, but the most important stat, goals, went 4-2 to Melbourne Victory.  The action finished up on Sunday with Brisbane and Perth facing off. It was a close match throughout, but Henrique broke the deadlock and won the game for Brisbane in the last 20 minutes. It was another disappointing weekend with my selections; really hoping things start to click this weekend. Overall the results aren’t that surprising, but it’s just not falling the way I’d like. As they say, it’s all variance, so things should come back around. It looks like a weekend with a lot of short priced favourites, I’ve got 4 out of the 5 home teams rated odds-on, with the shortest being Melbourne Victory at $1.41, I think it could be the shortest I’ve rated a team before. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 51 selections; I have had 20 winners, 27 losses and 4 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -8.72 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -17.1%.

Lets hope the punting gods look favourably on us this weekend.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Perth Glory/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
2nd:    Adelaide United – Head To Head – $1.82.
3rd:    Brisbane Roar/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73.
4th:    Adelaide United/Newcastle Jets – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.

Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners

Thursday 19 November, 8:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The round kicks off on Thursday with one of the most one-sided games you’ll see, the flying Melbourne Victory is hosting the struggling Central Coast. Melbourne Victory was uber impressive last week when they travelled to Sydney to face off with Sydney FC in the “Big Blue”. Lately Melbourne Victory has had the better of Sydney and on Saturday night it was no different. It was a high scoring affair but Sydney couldn’t keep up with Victory’s offensive abilities. While Sydney scored twice, that was nothing compared to Melbourne Victory’s four goals. That win stamped themselves as the team to beat this season in my opinion. Central Coast weren’t too bad considering they travelled to Newcastle and got a point out of the match. I was pretty surprised, I didn’t think they had much of a chance, but now they’ve moved a couple of spots off the bottom of the ladder, and they’ll be trying their hardest not to drop back down. There’s not much to say about this match, I, like everyone else, thinks Melbourne Victory just have to turn up to get all three points. I’d be happy to take a short price about them too, but the market isn’t giving me what I need. I rate them $1.41, so need a minimum of $1.55 to rate them as “value”, and I doubt that we’ll get that. This looks like a sit back and watch for me.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne Victory    5
Central Coast        0
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.41
Central Coast        $9.82
Draw            $5.30

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.40 William Hill
Central Coast        $9.00 Bet365
Draw            $5.00 Sportsbet, William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.14
Central Coast        $7.97

Market Price    
Melbourne Victory    $1.13 William Hill
Central Coast        $6.50 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.96
Over            $1.51

Market Price:    
Under            $2.60 Bet365, Unibet
Over            $1.49 Unibet

Value:         No value.

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City

Friday 20 November, 8:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane is at home again this week and will be looking to chalk up consecutive wins and hold their place at the top of the ladder when they host Melbourne City. They only won 1-0 against Perth last week, but that’s all Brisbane had to do to move to the top of the table. They dominated possession and deserved the win, I thought they might stretch the goal difference a little more, but a win is a win. Melbourne City, I don’t know what to make of them. They were terrible last week, at home to Western Sydney, they should not be dropping points, and so the fact that they lost 3-0 is unexplainable. They keep mixing their form, and it’s hard to know which team is going to turn up. I do know that it seems a Melbourne City with Mooy playing is very different to a Melbourne City without Mooy playing. Surely Brisbane will be too good for Melbourne City here, while their form is less than dominant, they should pull out too many guns and get the win. The price for Brisbane looks good to me too, $2.10 is more than enough to grab my attention, they look an odds-on chance to my eye. Over 2.5 Goals looks a solid play also in what should see quite a few goals scored.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane        1
Melbourne City    4
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.78
Melbourne City    $4.86
Draw            $4.28

Market Price:  
Brisbane        $2.10 Sportsbet, William Hill
Melbourne City    $3.60 Bet365
Draw            $3.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.37
Melbourne City    $3.73

Market Price    
Brisbane        $1.50 Sportsbet, William Hill
Melbourne City    $2.63 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.00
Over            $1.50

Market Price:    
Under            $2.12 Unibet
Over            $1.73 Bet365, Sportsbet

Value:         Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.10.
Brisbane Roar/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73.
Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.50.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 21 November, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium

We’ve got a mid table battle as Wellington Phoenix head across the Tasman to take on Western Sydney. The Wanders shocked me last week, they headed down to AAMI Park to face Melbourne City, and they just tore them apart. They ran out easy winners, taking the game 3-0 in the end, the result was never in doubt. Wellington were also very impressive hosting Adelaide, they put up an impressive offensive performance. They won their game 4-2 in a game where they seemed to struggle to hold possession, but they found the back of the net, and that’s what matters. Western Sydney’s road win really impressed me, and I think they’ll keep that momentum going into this round. I think back at home, in front of a big home crowd they’ll be even better and should be able to sting together their fourth consecutive win. This disappoints me because I really wanted to be on Western Sydney, but once again the market prices are right in sync with my rated prices, meaning there is very little value to be had. I actually think Western Sydney is slight bit of unders at the moment. Another game we’re going to have to let go through to the keeper, thankfully the next couple of games are much better.

Last 5 games:    
Western Sydney    1
Wellington        3
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.86
Wellington        $4.48
Draw            $4.16

Market Price:  
Western Sydney    $1.82 William Hill, Unibet
Wellington        $4.75 Bet365
Draw            $3.65 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.42
Wellington        $3.40

Market Price    
Western Sydney    $1.35 William Hill
Wellington        $3.40 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.32
Over            $1.76

Market Price:    
Under            $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over            $1.80 Bet365, Unibet

Value:         No value.

Perth Glory v Sydney FC

Saturday 21 November, 7:30pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

Saturday night holds what looks like the toughest match to split all round; it’s Perth hosting Sydney. Perth has been disappointing so far this season and last week was no different. While I didn’t expect any more from them on their trip to Brisbane last week, it was another loss, which means they are still sitting on just three points from their first five games. They were so much better last season, maybe the controversy at the end of the year hurt them, but they don’t look like the same team. Sydney has been solid recently, but last weeks loss to Melbourne Victory was disappointing. They were at home and I thought if they were ever going to be in a position to beat their rival, this was it. They ended up going down 4-2, and while they still hold the second position on the table, it would have been a big hit to them losing that one. I give the slight advantage to Sydney in this, it’s a tough road trip out west, and I don’t think they’ll have it all their own way, but if I had to pick a team, they would be it. The market actually has Sydney a lot shorter than I thought they would be, and in turn, Perth a bit longer than I thought. Perth isn’t quite a good enough price for me to jump in, but they are not far off it. They real value in this match, and I think the best of the round is the Over 2.5 Goals at $1.95; I have it rated extremely short at $1.31. I don’t think there is any way this price will stay around.

Last 5 games: 
Perth            1
Sydney            4
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Perth            $2.94
Sydney            $2.49
Draw            $3.86

Market Price:    
Perth            $3.40 Sportsbet
Sydney            $2.20 William Hill
Draw            $3.45, Sportsbet, William Hill, Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $2.18
Sydney            $1.85

Market Price  
Perth            $2.42 Sportsbet
Sydney            $1.60 William Hill, Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $4.23
Over            $1.31

Market Price:    
Under            $1.90 Unibet
Over            $1.95 Bet365

Value:         Perth Glory/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.

Adelaide United v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 22 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

The final game of the weekend is on Sunday afternoon, and while it might not look the best game on paper, as far as value goes, it looks the best game of the weekend to me. It’s a matchup between the still winless Adelaide and Newcastle. Last week Adelaide lost 4-2 to Wellington over in New Zealand. I never really expected them to come out of that match with much, but it doesn’t matter who you are playing, and what the circumstances are, you should not be allowing 4 goals in a game. On the plus side, at least they found the net a couple of times. Newcastle hosted Central Coast last Saturday, and I was quite surprised they couldn’t come up with a win. Their form has been up and down all season, and that was definitely a down. While Adelaide has been frustrating so far this season, I have to put them on top of Newcastle. I think they just have too much class, and back at home, they should be able to clock up their first win of the season. I’m pretty happy to take the $1.82 for Adelaide or even the $1.35 for them with money back for a draw. I think Over 2.5 Goals could be the safest bet in this match though, Adelaide’s last 4 matches have all gone Overs, and I think this will be headed the same way.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide        3
Newcastle        2
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.53
Newcastle        $6.80
Draw            $5.00

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $1.82 William Hill
Newcastle        $4.60 Unibet
Draw            $3.80 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.23
Newcastle        $5.44

Market Price    
Adelaide        $1.35 William Hill
Newcastle        $3.45 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.90
Over            $1.53

Market Price:    
Under            $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over            $1.80 Bet365

Value:         Adelaide United – Head To Head – $1.82.
Adelaide United/Newcastle Jets – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.35.