Finally, back to a good winning weekend. The Melbourne Victory/Adelaide United game on Friday night set us up for the round, which was great because I’ve found Friday nights hard throughout the start of the season.
It was a great way to start the round at AAMI Park with Melbourne Victory beating Adelaide in a 5-goal thriller. There were a couple of own goals, plenty of yellow cards, and it turned out to be the right result for us, so it was a win win. Melbourne Victory was expected to take all three points from the match, and while it wasn’t the easiest of jobs, they did what they needed to win against a very good Adelaide side. Along with Sydney FC, I think these are clearly the top 3 sides in the A-League at the moment.
Saturday’s fixtures ended up in a pair of 1-1 draws. I’m not surprised this was the case in the Sydney Derby, it looked a close match on paper, and it turned out that way. The draw in the Brisbane/Perth game was a little more of a surprise though, I really expected Roar to get it done after a couple of promising weeks, but Glory were strong, and actually led for most of the match, but in the end both teams walked away with a point each.
Wellington pulled out an unexpected performances, I thought they’d win, but I never saw 5-1 coming, they did similar to Newcastle about a month ago and we all thought, “Where did this fire power come from”. The stats say Melbourne City played an ok game, but as soon as you looked at the scoreboard you can see that wasn’t the case. All we know now is that when Phoenix are on song they can hit the back of the net quite a lot.
The round finished off with another 1-1 draw, this time between Newcastle and Central Coast. Newcastle weren’t super short, but I, like most, thought they should be able to get the better of Central Coast, who’s form has been average to say the least. The Jets are probably pretty lucky to come out of the game with a point, Mariners dominated most of the game, holding a big percentage of the possession and taking 50% more shots at goal than them.
Another big round of A-League this week as Western Sydney and Brisbane play their make-up game from earlier in the year, giving us 6 games this week. A bonus of this is that from Wednesday we get 5 straight days of A-League action, which I’m sure everyone likes.
This week there doesn’t appear to be that standout blockbuster, but there is a couple interesting games. I think Central Coast hosting Melbourne Victory will be a very close game that could go either way, should be a good watch. Also be looking forward to Adelaide and Western Sydney, because after the results from earlier in the round I think they’ll have a good chance at going to the top of the ladder.
Hopefully last week was the start of a nice winning streak; let’s keep it going with Round 9.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value
1st: Central Coast – Head to Head – $4.00
2nd: Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $2.87
3rd: Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.09
4th: Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.90
Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar
Wednesday 3 December, 7:30pm – Parramatta Stadium
Western Sydney host Brisbane in the make-up game from earlier in the season that they missed out on due to ACL duties. The Wanderers were pretty good on Saturday against Sydney FC. They were the favourite for the match, so only getting a draw out of it would be a little disappointing, but they played well, dominated most of the stats, just couldn’t find that second goal that they needed. After a couple of better rounds Brisbane looked like they were starting to get things together, but they’ve dropped back off again with a poor performance against Perth. They only managed a draw in a match they should have been winning, and they were lucky to get that draw with Henrique scoring a late goal for them. Western Sydney definitely look to have the edge in this fixture, just backing up again after playing Sydney only 4 days prior, it’s always the unknown. So you can imagine my surprise when I seen that you could get over $4.00 for Brisbane, that looks a very good price in what appears to be a pretty an open game. At that price they have to be a selection in both the Head to Head and the Draw No Bet markets.
Last 5 games
Western Sydney 1
Draw 2
Brisbane 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Western Sydney $2.24
Draw $3.81
Brisbane $3.44
Market Price
Western Sydney $2.20 TAB
Draw $3.65 Sportingbet
Brisbane $4.05 Sportingbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Western Sydney $1.65
Brisbane $2.54
Market Price
Western Sydney $1.60
Brisbane $2.85 Sportingbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.94
Under $2.06
Market Price
Over $2.05 Bet365
Under $1.83 Ladbrokes
Value: Brisbane – Head to Head – $4.05
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.85
Sydney FC v Perth Glory
Thursday 4 December, 7:30pm – Allianz Stadium
Perth Glory make back-to-back east coast road trips, this time it’s to face off with a very strong Sydney FC. The home team was pretty good last week in the big Sydney Derby. It always looked a close game but I thought the advantage would be with Western Sydney, but Sydney managed to get a point out of the game. Some might of thought they could do better, but heading to Parramatta to face the Wanderers in front of their massive home crowd is never an easy task, I think they did well. Perth are coming a very similar game, they headed to Brisbane in what finished a 1-1 draw. Once again they were the outsiders in the game so to come away with something is pretty good, it was also enough for them to hold their spot at the top of the ladder. In saying that this is Sydney’s game to lose. I think they are one of the best side’s in the comp at the minute and with Perth having to do long back-to-back road trips they should be able to take care of them. I have them as my shortest price favourite of the round. Better than even money is a gift for Sydney, I’ll be jumping all over this, would be shocked if they didn’t start red figures. Head to Head and Draw No Bet are both great value for possibly the best team in the comp.
Last 5 games
Sydney 2
Draw 1
Perth 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Sydney $1.71
Draw $4.21
Perth $5.59
Market Price
Sydney $2.15 Bet365, Sportingbet
Draw $3.50 TAB, Sportsbet
Perth $3.70 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Sydney $1.31
Perth $4.26
Market Price
Sydney $1.57 Sportingbet
Perth $2.50 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.88
Under $2.14
Market Price
Over $1.95 Bet365
Under $1.88 Luxbet
Value: Sydney – Head to Head – $2.15
Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.57
Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory
Friday 5 December, 7:40pm – North Sydney Oval
Melbourne Victory plays yet another Friday night game, this time they are heading up the coast to face off with Central Coast at the North Sydney Oval. Central Coast travelled to Newcastle last week and left with a point, which was a good effort in a game that they came into as underdogs. They actually dominated the game and probably should of got all 3 points, but they’d be happy with the draw in that fixture I’d say. Melbourne Victory continued on with their excellent form at home this season. They beat Adelaide 3-2 in a very strong performance, although we should expect anything less from them, from 5 home games this season they are yet to drop a single point. This is a very tight match, I only have $0.27 separating the two teams, and I think it could honestly go either way. When I looked at the market I couldn’t believe the disparity, I knew that it would have Victory favourite, but odds-on, that’s crazy. $4.00 for Central Coast is a great price, they definitely shouldn’t be that long, and they have a better chance than that.
Last 5 games
Central Coast 2
Draw 1
Melbourne Victory 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Central Coast $2.57
Draw $3.86
Melbourne Victory $2.84
Market Price
Central Coast $4.00 Sportsbet
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $1.95 Sportingbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Central Coast $1.90
Melbourne Victory $2.11
Market Price
Central Coast $2.87 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $1.43 Luxbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.77
Under $2.30
Market Price
Over $1.85 Bet365, Luxbet
Under $1.95 Bet365, Luxbet
Value: Central Coast – Head to Head – $4.00
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $2.87
Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 6 December, 5:00pm – Hunter Stadium
Newcastle gets back-to-back home games; this time they are hosting Wellington on Saturday afternoon. Newcastle were a little disappointing last week when they could only manage a draw against Central Coast, a game most thought they should do a little better in. They were actually dominated for most of the game, so getting a point out of it was probably a decent result. Wellington had one of the most impressive performances coming out of last weekend, they had a pretty easy match against Melbourne City, but they smashed them winning 5-1. Burns is putting his hand up as a real attacking force after he snagged a hat trick in the match. Wellington is never as good on the road so I think this tips the game in Newcastle’s favour, they should be tough to beat this week. I checked the market for this match and I had a grin from ear to ear, Newcastle is massive value. Can’t believe the bookies have them basically equal price, there should be a big difference between them, I’m very happy to take them in both markets.
Last 5 games
Newcastle 2
Draw 1
Wellington 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Newcastle $2.09
Draw $3.81
Wellington $3.85
Market Price
Newcastle $2.60 Sportingbet
Draw $3.50 TAB
Wellington $2.75 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Newcastle $1.54
Wellington $2.84
Market Price
Newcastle $1.90 Sportingbet
Wellington $2.05 TAB
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $2.20
Under $1.84
Market Price
Over $1.84 Luxbet
Under $2.00 Bet365
Value: Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.09
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.90
Adelaide United v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 6 December, 7:30pm – Hindmarsh Stadium
Western Sydney has their second game in four days as they head to South Australia to take on Adelaide after playing Brisbane only a few days ago. Adelaide were brave last week, they lost 3-2 to Melbourne Victory when travelling down to Victoria to face them. Everyone knows how hard Victory are to beat at home, and not even Adelaide, who I think is in great form, could take a point from them, it’s probably as good a result as they could expect from the game. Western Sydney were pretty average on Wednesday, they hosted Brisbane and didn’t even manage a point, the quick back up won’t help either. I would be very surprised if Adelaide comes out of this match with anything other than all 3 points, they look to have the side that can go far in the competition this year and if that’s the case, they need to be winning these kinds of games. I think they’re a great price at $1.87 too and should be significantly shorter. They’ll also pour on the goals, so Over 2.5 Goals looks a strong bet as well.
Last 5 games
Adelaide 1
Draw 1
Western Sydney 3
Head to Head
Rated Price
Adelaide $1.64
Draw $4.47
Western Sydney $6.00
Market Price
Adelaide $1.87 Betstar, TAB
Draw $3.65 Sportsbet, Sportingbet
Western Sydney $4.75 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Adelaide $1.27
Western Sydney $4.66
Market Price
Adelaide $1.38 Betstar
Western Sydney $3.40 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.46
Under $3.20
Market Price
Over $1.95 Bet365
Under $1.93 Betstar
Value: Adelaide Roar/Western Sydney Wanderers – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
Adelaide Road – Head to Head – $1.87.
Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar
Sunday 7 December, 5:00pm – AAMI Park
Brisbane clock up the frequent flyer miles as they head to Melbourne to take on City after travelling to Sydney to play the Wanderers only a few days ago. Melbourne City were very average last week, they did have to travel to New Zealand to take on Wellington, but to lose 5-1 against a team no one rates very highly, it’s just not good enough. If they want to take anything out of this season they’ll really have to improve on performances like that. Brisbane was very good on Wednesday travelling to Western Sydney and coming away with all three points as a despised underdog. The quick back up is a big worry, but they are capable of a good performance. Both teams are in very average form, but being played at AAMI Park I think it has to give the slight advantage to Melbourne City, although it’s hard to be confident about them. There looks to be a slight bit of value about Brisbane, but I don’t think it’s enough to make them a selection; we’ll have to skip the last game of the round I think.
Last 5 games
Melbourne City 2
Draw 0
Brisbane 3
Head to Head
Rated Price
Melbourne City $2.53
Draw $3.75
Brisbane $2.95
Market Price
Melbourne City $2.40 TAB
Draw $3.45 TAB, Sportsbet
Brisbane $3.10 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Melbourne City $1.86
Brisbane $2.17
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.74 Sportingbet
Brisbane $2.25 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.80
Under $2.25
Market Price
Over $1.91 Sportingbet
Under $1.95 Bet365
Value: No value.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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