Coming off another average round, while this was nowhere near as bad as the week before, still come out of it with a small loss for the week, hopefully we get back onto the winner’s train this week.
First game up was probably the biggest shock of them all as my “bad selection Fridays” continued. Most people thought Newcastle was the team to beat; Brisbane had been poor all season and hasn’t really showed anything. Then, out of nowhere they looked like the premiers of last season; they tore Newcastle apart, smashing them 4-0.
Saturday’s results were a little truer to form with both Adelaide (over Wellington) and Perth (over Western Sydney) winning their matches 2-1 when starting as favourites, business as usual there. Sydney could only manage a draw against Melbourne Victory; I thought they’d be able to do more at home, but apparently not.
Central Coast showed a little more than I thought they would to get a point out of their trip down to Melbourne to take on City. While Melbourne City has been average, Central Coast has been worse and most thought they’d struggle. Maybe it’s taken 6 rounds but Central Coast and Brisbane are starting to fine their form from last season.
Onto Round 7 and we have a few interesting matches this week. I think the highlight is probably Melbourne Victory taking on the back to form Brisbane Roar. Also like the look of Central Coast and Adelaide, I think the market might have this one around the wrong way, so I hope we can take advantage of that.
Best of luck over the weekend, we certainly deserve our share after the last two weeks.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value
1st: Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $3.30.
2nd: Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $2.30.
3rd: Western Sydney Wanderers/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals – $1.86.
4th: Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $5.00.
Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar
Friday 21 November, 7:40pm – Etihad Stadium
There’s a double-header this Friday to kick off Round 7, just what I needed with how my Friday night record has been going, nothing we can do about that though, let’s have a look at probably the highlight of the round as Melbourne Victory host the Brisbane Roar. Victory are coming of a very encouraging performance last week, they travelled north to face Sydney FC who are renowned for being very strong at home, and they managed to came away with a draw, which is probably as good as they could hope for. As for Roar, their performance from last Monday was of a Brisbane Roar from 6 months ago, they dominated Newcastle in a 4-0 thumping. That’s something we’d come to expect last season, but this campaign they haven’t shown anything like that, maybe they’ve turned the corner. This game looks to have Melbourne Victory’s name written all over it, they were great last week, back to Etihad Stadium where they excel, they should be getting the 3 points in what is sure to be a high scoring match. Thankfully we’re getting just enough value out of Melbourne Victory in both the Head to Head and Draw No Bet markets to make them a selection. Also unsurprisingly, Over 2.5 Goals sneaks in as a selection too.
Last 5 games
Melbourne Victory 1
Draw 1
Brisbane 3
Head to Head
Rated Price
Melbourne Victory $1.82
Draw $4.11
Brisbane $4.85
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $2.00 Bet365
Draw $3.70 Sportsbet
Brisbane $4.10 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Melbourne Victory $1.37
Brisbane $3.67
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.50 Bet365
Brisbane $2.80 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.59
Under $2.70
Market Price
Over $1.73 Bet365, Luxbet
Under $2.10 Luxbet, Unibet
Value: Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.00.
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.50.
Melbourne Victory/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73.
Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix
Friday 21 November 9:45pm – NIB Stadium
The second match of the Friday double-header see’s Wellington making the longest road trip of the A-League season, all the way over to WA to face Perth. Perth were good last week, beating Western Sydney 2-1, anything less would have been disappointing, but they got the job done and hold their place at the top of the ladder. Wellington led early against Adelaide last weekend before they gave up a couple of goals and ended up flying back home with nothing to show for their performance. They always looked to be outclassed in that fixture, so it was probably a pretty accurate result. Another big flight for Wellington, they must be starting to get tired of airports, all this travel might start to hurt them. Perth look really well placed at home again this week and I think they will win again and continue to stand onto of the A-League ladder. I really wanted to be tipping Perth here, but $1.80 is simply too short, I couldn’t go near them at the price, even though I think they win. Wellington on the other hand, at $5.00, is just enough to tempt me in, wouldn’t take any shorter, but at $5.00+ I think they are worth a gamble.
Last 5 games
Perth 2
Draw 2
Wellington 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Perth $1.89
Draw $4.04
Wellington $4.50
Market Price
Perth $1.80 TAB, Sportingbet, TW, Centrebet
Draw $3.65 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Wellington $5.00 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Perth $1.42
Wellington $3.39
Market Price
Perth $1.35 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Wellington $3.50 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.81
Under $2.23
Market Price
Over $1.95 Bet365
Under $1.88 Luxbet
Value: Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $5.00.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Newcastle Jets
Saturday 22 November 5:00pm – Parramatta Stadium
First of our Saturday games and we see Western Sydney on the quick backup from Wednesday when they hosted Newcastle. The Wanderers struggled on Wednesday only managing 1 point in a 0-0 draw with the Mariners when an odds-on favourite. They did dominate the game, having twice as many shots as Central Coast, but they just couldn’t convert any of them in a game they really should of won. Newcastle were also very disappointing last week, most thought they’d be a good chance hosting Brisbane, but they got a 4-0 hiding that they won’t forget quickly, nor will their fans that went to Hunter Stadium last week. As long as Western Sydney is completely fit after their midweek game they’ll be very hard to beat. I have them as the shortest price favourite of the week, right down at $1.78, much like Central Coast and Brisbane have, I think Western Sydney might start to show some of their form from last season. Pretty sure this will be a low scoring affair too, either 1-0 or 2-0 to Western Sydney, so most likely will stay under the 2.5 goals. Market has got this one just about spot on, there’s no value about Western Sydney and barely any about Newcastle, definitely not enough to make them a selection. Thankfully bookies have the Over/Under prices nearly the same, when it should clearly be tipped more towards the Under 2.5 Goals, at $1.86 it looks good value for this match up.
Last 5 games
Western Sydney 3
Draw 1
Newcastle 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Western Sydney $1.78
Draw $4.28
Newcastle $4.88
Market Price
Western Sydney $1.87 TAB
Draw $3.75 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Newcastle $5.20 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Western Sydney $1.36
Newcastle $3.74
Market Price
Western Sydney $1.30 Bet365
Newcastle $4.00 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $2.49
Under $1.67
Market Price
Over $1.95 Everywhere
Under $1.86 Luxbet
Value: Western Sydney Wanderers/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals – $1.86.
Melbourne City v Sydney FC
Saturday 22 November 7:30pm – AAMI Park
Sydney head down south to face off with the other Melbourne side this week, City. Both of these teams are coming off similar games in Round 6, Sydney hosted Melbourne Victory in a game that most thought they really should of won, but they could only manage a draw. They usually play so well at Allianz Stadium, but they couldn’t break the deadlock at any stage of the match. Melbourne City also played at home last week; they met up with Central Coast, who hasn’t done much this season. After City broke through the week before, many thought they’d continue on their way and start to win the matches they should, and maybe even some they shouldn’t, but like Sydney, all they could manage was a draw. Melbourne City look to have a slight edge in this game, but it is the tightest of the weekend, so they are far from a lock. This also looks to be another Melbourne game where quite a few goals could be scored. Unfortunately there just doesn’t appear to be any real value around, even the Over/Under lines are basically spot on, have to give this game a pass and wait for Sunday.
Last 5 games
Melbourne City 2
Draw 1
Sydney 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Melbourne City $2.42
Draw $3.83
Sydney $3.08
Market Price
Melbourne City $2.40 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Draw $3.50 TAB
Sydney $3.25 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Melbourne City $1.75
Sydney $2.34
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.75 Sportingbet, Centrebet, Bet365
Sydney $2.25 Bet365, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.79
Under $2.27
Market Price
Over $1.85 Bet365
Under $1.95 Bet365
Value: No value.
Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United
Sunday 23 November 5:00pm – Bluetongue Stadium
Last game of the week on Sunday afternoon and Adelaide head over to Bluetongue stadium to face Central Coast. While the Mariners struggled through their game on Wednesday against Wanderers, they still managed to pull out 1 point from the match, an achievement that I didn’t think they had in them. It was a 0-0 draw, so nothing to go crazy about, but their defense stood strong for the whole 90 minutes, which is what you like to see. Adelaide came away with a workman like performance last week. Most thought they’d just rock up and take away the 3 points from their match-up with Wellington, but when Phoenix scored an early goal I thought we could get a different result. Adelaide slowly but surely made their comeback, scoring a very late goal to rightfully take all 3 points. I think this will be another tight match, I give the advantage to Central Coast, but Adelaide definitely has claims too. It’s taken to the end of the round but we’ve finally found some really good value. Central Coast shouldn’t be the outsider in this fixture, I’m very keen on them both Head to Head, or if you want to be a bit safer the Draw No Bet option. While I doubt that they’d start favourite, I don’t think these big prices will hold up too long, might be best to knock off the good prices early.
Last 5 games
Central Coast 3
Draw 0
Adelaide 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Central Coast $2.33
Draw $3.84
Adelaide $3.22
Market Price
Central Coast $3.30 Bet365
Draw $3.50 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW, TAB
Adelaide $2.25 Sporitngbet, Centrebet, TW
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Central Coast $1.72
Adelaide $2.38
Market Price
Central Coast $2.30 Unibet
Adelaide $1.66 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.83
Under $2.21
Market Price
Over $1.85 Everywhere
Under $1.95 Bet365
Value: Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $3.30.
Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $2.30.
Prices correct at time of writing.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
