Was great to get another winning week under the belt. While it wasn’t the cash cow of the previous few weeks, it still produced a positive figure on the bottom line, which is what you always like to see. That makes it 4 winning weeks in a row to kick the season off, couldn’t have hoped for a better start.
Once again my Friday night selections brought me undone. I thought it was going to be a great start to the weekend when Melbourne City scored in the first 10 minutes. But then Adelaide managed to level up about half an hour later deflating my mood a little. Then Carrusca converted a penalty for the visitors leaving Melbourne City still looking for their first win of the season and my first selection of the week down the drain.
The only other selections for the round came on Saturday night when Perth hosted Newcastle. I was pretty confident this was going to be a high scoring affair, but when the 70th minute ticked over and there was still nothing on the score sheet I had written the bet off. I hope anyone who took the Overs didn’t change channels though because 10 minutes later there was 3 goals on the board, leading to the fourth consecutive winning week.
The other two matches for the round was Melbourne Victory taking on Wellington and Sydney hosting Central Coast. Melbourne Victory and Sydney were both short priced favourites for their respective matches and they both ran out easy 2-0 winners.
I know I just do write-ups for A-League but it would be amiss for me not to mention Western Sydney Wanderers’ efforts in winning the Asian Champions League final. It is an incredible feat, and in only their 3rd A-league season, congrats guys.
Now we can have a look at Round 5 and with Western Sydney’s duties abroad finished we get back to a 5 game round, which I’m sure everyone has been looking forward to, 4 just doesn’t seem enough.
The obvious highlight for the round is Adelaide hosting Sydney Friday night, in what will be a battle for the top of the table (at least until Melbourne Victory play on Saturday). You’ll see my preview down below but I think it might be a little one-sided, but we’ll see.
Actually thinking Wellington and Western Sydney will be the tightest match-up of the weekend, it might be some good watching for a neutral, there’s also bound to be plenty of goals to keep us entertained too.
Thankfully I’ve quite a few selections this weekend, which I’m surprised about after the last couple of weeks, but I’m definitely not complaining.
I’m starting to feel a bit of pressure going into Round 5 without having a losing round, not a bad pressure to have though, let’s hope the good run continues.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $2.62.
2nd: Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $3.50.
3rd: Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $2.40.
4th: Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $1.73.
Wellington Phoenix v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday 7 November, 5:30pm – Westpac Stadium
We have a rare Friday night double header this week and it kicks off with Western Sydney heading to New Zealand to face Wellington. The home team is coming off a trip to Melbourne only 4 days earlier where they were easily taken care of, losing 2-0. Melbourne Victory were rated the shortest price favourite of the round though last week, so I don’t think many thought Wellington were going to get anything out of their trip to Melbourne. It’s been a while since Western Sydney have played any A-League football, the last time was back on 18 Oct when they lost to their across town rival Sydney. It’s probably fairer to go off their recent ACL form, which was great; they beat one of the best teams in Asia 2 weeks ago, and then held them to a 0-0 draw away last week to take home the silverware. This looks to be the closest game of the round for mine; I have under a $1.00 between the two teams, giving the slight advantage to Wellington with that home ground edge. This does look a game set to have plenty of goals though; I’ve got the Over 2.5 Goals rated at a very short $1.60. There doesn’t appear too much value in the Head to Head and Draw No Bet markets for the opening game the round, but luckily I think bookies have the Over/Under prices completely off. $1.85 for Over 2.5 Goals is a great option to go in this match, it’s looks value and you should get a good showing for your money.
Last 5 games
Wellington 1
Draw 2
Western Sydney 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Wellington $2.38
Draw $3.80
Western Sydney $3.16
Market Price
Wellington $2.55 Unibet
Draw $3.40 Sportingbet
Western Sydney $2.80 Sportingbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Wellington $1.75
Western Sydney $2.33
Market Price
Wellington $1.84 Unibet
Western Sydney $2.02 Sportingbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.60
Under $2.67
Market Price
Over $1.87 TAB
Under $1.95 Luxbet, Bet365
Value
Wellington Phoenix/Western Sydney Wanderers – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.87
Adelaide United v Sydney FC
Friday 7 November, 7:45pm – Coopers Stadium
The second match of the Friday double header is the highlight of the round. Two of the top teams face off as Adelaide United host Sydney FC. IT should be a good match with the winner going to the top of the ladder following the match. Adelaide were very impressive last week, taking on Melbourne City away and coming away with an impressive win, I think they deserve to be on top of the A-League ladder. It didn’t go all their own way as Melbourne City scored an early goal to put them on the back foot, but before the half time whistle they managed to level things up courtesy of Djite. With only 10 minutes remaining in the match they were rewarded with a penalty after a clumsy tackle. Carrusca had no trouble converting from the spot and Adelaide took all 3 points home with them. Sydney were also good, but their situation was a little different, they were a short priced favourite when taking on Central Coast. They hit the back of the net twice in the first half an hour and from then on they were in complete control. Duke had a penalty that he failed to convert for Central Coast, but doubt that would of made much of a difference, it was very late in the match. Either way Sydney got the job done and now have a chance to hit the top of the table. Even though both of these teams are very good, I think the home advantage for Adelaide is a big one, I’d be surprised if they weren’t able to get the better of Sydney, I have them just into odds-on at $1.90. This is another game where I expect there to be plenty of goals, we might have an entertaining Friday night on our hands. I’m pretty keen on this game; I’ve got a few selections as Adelaide look to be overs in the Head to Head and Draw No Bet markets. There also looks to be great value in the Over 2.5 Goals, it’s the best value of the game in my opinion, can’t really believe you can get $1.90.
Last 5 games
Adelaide 3
Draw 1
Sydney 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Adelaide $1.90
Draw $3.95
Sydney $4.55
Market Price
Adelaide $2.20 Ladbrokes
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Sydney $3.65 unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Adelaide $1.42
Sydney $3.40
Market Price
Adelaide $1.57 Centrebet, TW
Sydney $2.65 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.56
Under $2.77
Market Price
Over $1.90 Ladbrokes
Under $2.00 Everywhere
Value
Adelaide United/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90.
Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.20.
Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.57.
Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 8 November, 5:00pm – Hunter Stadium
We now get into the Saturday afternoon match where we get to see Newcastle host Melbourne Victory. Hard to know how to assess Newcastle’s performance last week, they were paying $4.00 in the match so I’m sure they would have been more than happy getting a draw out of their road trip to Perth. So when it was 0-0 at the 70-minute mark, I’m sure they thought they were sitting pretty, and then when Neumann scored a goal they would of thought all their Christmas’ had come at once. The following 10 minutes took all that away from them though, allowing the sub Maclaren to net 2 goals in quick succession. I guess they can take a bit out of the game because they did play well, but they need to get something out of games like that when they play well for so long. Melbourne Victory was as professional as ever last week. They were a severely depleted team due to injuries and suspensions, but they still managed to bag a 2-0 win. They controlled most of the match and never really looked in danger. This looks another close game for the weekend, I think Newcastle have a slight advantage as Melbourne Victory are nowhere near as a good on the road as they are in Melbourne. This game has my top 2 selections for the round, I think the bookies have got this one completely wrong and think they are overplaying Melbourne Victory’s form, it’s still so early in the season. Newcastle with the Draw No Bet at $2.62 is incredible to me; I have them rated shorter in the Head to Head market. They are obviously also great value in the Head to Head market. And for the first time this season I’m selecting Under 2.5 Goals in a game. We all know Melbourne Victory home games have a lot of goals scored, but I don’t think the same can be said for their away games, yet the market has the Overs as a clear favourite, happy to take the Under 2.5 Goals in this one.
Last 5 games
Newcastle 1
Draw 2
Melbourne Victory 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Newcastle $2.35
Draw $3.80
Melbourne Victory $3.21
Market Price
Newcastle $3.50 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Melbourne Victory $2.12 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Newcastle $1.73
Melbourne Victory $2.36
Market Price
Newcastle $2.62 Sportbet
Melbourne Victory 1.55 Sportingbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $2.07
Under $1.93
Market Price
Over $1.75 Bet365, Ladbrokes
Under $2.20 Unibet
Value
Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $2.62.
Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $3.50.
Newcastle Jets/Melbourne Victory – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.20.
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City
Saturday 8 November, 7:30pm – Stadium
We’re half way through Round 5 and who would of thought neither Brisbane Roar or Melbourne City would of chalked up a win yet, not me. Both teams have been pretty poor this season and they’ll both be looking to make amends. Brisbane had a week off as they were scheduled to play Western Sydney last week who were caught up with ACL duties. The last time we seen Brisbane was when they headed to Perth were they just got knocked off in the last few minutes in a high scoring match. The time off should help them and if they don’t come out firing this week they never will. Melbourne City is coming off a very disappointing performance. They hosted Adelaide in a match that looked like it was theirs for the taking on paper. They led early in the game and looked dangerous after that, but failed to convert again. Not only could they not hold onto their lead, Adelaide scored a second goal after they gave away a late penalty that was easily converted to leave them with nothing from the match. I don’t know what they will be like post Villa. This game looks to have Brisbane’s name all over it, they had a great home record last season and I’m thinking they are going to start and find their grove again. It was a pleasant surprise to see a price better than even money for Brisbane, the $2.15 for them Head to Head is great and I think should be snapped up, doubt that will last long. It looks the only play for this game.
Last 5 games
Brisbane 3
Draw 0
Melbourne City 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Brisbane $1.82
Draw $4.17
Melbourne City $4.75
Market Price
Brisbane $2.15 Ladbrokes
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $4.00 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Brisbane $1.38
Melbourne City $3.61
Market Price
Brisbane $1.50 Sportingbet
Melbourne City $2.75 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $2.05
Under $1.95
Market Price
Over $1.75 Luxbet, Ladbrokes
Under $2.08 Luxbet, Bet365
Value
Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.15.
Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory
Sunday 9 November, 5:00pm – Bluetongue Stadium
We round out the weekend on Sunday afternoon with Central Coast Mariners playing host to Perth Glory. Central Coast was pretty average against Sydney last Sunday, but that was pretty much what everyone expected. Duke couldn’t manage to slot a penalty late in the game, that might of given them a little (unwarranted) hope, but that wasn’t to be either. Perth is coming off a sneaky win to Newcastle, in a match I don’t think they really deserved to win. After a goalless 70 minutes they allowed Neumann to score and it looked all over for them. With what can now be described as a brilliant move the coaching staff, subbed in Maclaren who made short work of the Newcastle goals by netting the ball twice in a matter of minutes, landing the victory for Perth. The big trip to the east coast will hurt Perth here and I think it is Central Coast’s game to lose. They should pack too many punches back at Bluetongue Stadium and be able to send Perth back west with their tails between their legs. Looks to be a few goals in this one too without the best defenses going around, and scoring last week I’d imagine Keogh would be very antsy to get back on the goal scorers sheet once again. There looks to be a fair bit of value in the last game of the round. I have Central Coast rated a fair bit shorter, so I think they are good value in both the Head to Head and Draw No Bet markets. The Over 2.5 Goals at better than even money also looks like a steal, pretty keen on that too to round out a big weekend.
Last 5 games
Central Coast 3
Draw 0
Perth 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Central Coast $1.79
Draw $4.24
Perth $4.84
Market Price
Central Coast $2.40 Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, TW
Draw $3.40 Sportsbet
Perth $3.15 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Central Coast $1.37
Perth $3.70
Market Price
Central Coast $1.73 Sportingbet
Perth $2.15 Ladbrokes
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.75
Under $2.34
Market Price
Over $2.08 Bet365
Under $1.80 Sportsbet
Value
Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $2.40
Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $1.73
Central Coast Mariners/Perth Glory – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.08
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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